New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering. Saturday 11 April 2015 Rotorua

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1 New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering Saturday 11 April 2015 Rotorua

2 Annual Likelihood National Severe weather Hazard Risks 10 % Once a decade 1 % Once a century Large rural flood Major transport accident Hazardous Spill Major infrastructure failure Sustained drought Agricultural pest/disease outbreak Moderate earthquake Moderate tsunami Large urban flood Human pandemic 0.1 % Once a millennium 0.01 % Geophysical Meteorological Biological Technological Minor Moderate Major Relative Consequences Auckland eruption Very large tsunami Very large Central North Island eruption Catastrophic

3 Countries with National Disaster Insurance Country Risks covered California (USA) Earthquakes (not consequential events) Caribbean (16 Earthquakes, Hurricanes countries) France Natural perils Iceland Earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, avalanches, landslides, floods Japan Earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and tsunamis New Zealand Earthquakes, tsunami, volcanic eruption, landslides, hydrothermal activity, storm and flood cover to land. Norway Flood, storm, landslide, avalanches, volcanic eruption, earthquake. Romania Earthquake, flood, landslide Spain Flood, earthquake, storm, tsunami, volcanic eruption, meteorites and terrorism. Switzerland Flood, storm, hail, avalanches, landslide, rockfall. Not earthquakes. Taiwan Earthquakes (and consequential events) Turkey Earthquake (fire, landslide )

4 Margareta Wahlstrom UN Secretary-General Special Representative for Disaster Risk Reduction Insurance helps people and countries recover more quickly after a disaster if they are insured. Loss of economic capacity is one of the hardest issues for people to face and we need mediation between the insurance industry and public sector Many disasters have not yet happened and therefore most insurance policies have yet to be written.

5 Disaster Insurance in New Zealand Mixed public/private provision Residential Non Residential Basic cover Public insurance through EQC Automatic with fire insurance Top-up cover Private insurance Voluntary Private cover Voluntary

6 Unique Features of EQC Longevity established in 1945 First loss cover dwelling and contents and land cover Crown owned Compulsory co-purchase with domestic fire insurance Coverage of more than 90% of residential dwellings New Zealand s largest residential insurer One (low) price for all Expected to estimate precisely likely damages

7 EQC s Roles Research To understand and reduce vulnerability to geological hazards Insurance Mitigate the financial impact of geological disasters on home owners Education Inform and encourage risk reduction

8 Number of Claims Lodged Estimating Scale 500, , , ,000 Claims Lodged 300, , , , ,000 Estimated major Wellington earthquake (2009 Review) Estimated large scale event target (2009 Review) 50,000 -

9 Canterbury earthquakes Most significant by number of claims 180, , , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, Sept Feb Jun Dec 2011

10 Canterbury Earthquakes New Zealand s most severe losses since Napier, deaths Economic losses estimated at $30 billion Insured losses estimated at $20 billion (or about 10% of NZ s GDP) GDP in 2011 reduced by 1.5% 2.5% NZ capital stock destroyed Property damage $NZ billion Residential 13.0 Commercial 4.0 Infrastructure 3.0 Total 20.0

11 Private insurance market impacts Event Economic losses Insured $US % of GDP loss billion ($US billion) Japan Up to Up to 5.4% Insurance industry contribution 35.0 Up to Chile % % NZ % % Haiti % 0.1 1% NZ 6 5.3% 81% Italy % % Source: Swiss Re, January 2012

12 Number of houses Distribution of Building Damage Aggregated after 22 February 2011 Shaking damage (150,000 houses) Exacerbated building damage due to liquefaction (c. 30,000 houses) Typically 0 - $60k damage High intensity of total losses (typically $800k) $ Value of building damage

13 Complexities Event sequence Increased Flooding /Liquefaction Risk Multi-unit buildings Homeowners pre-quake situations Pre-existing housing stock quality Legislative interpretation Customer services capability Wider expectations of EQC Massive upscale then downscale

14 Progress in Canterbury CHRP 95% complete (March 2015) 68,000 home repairs 63,000 emergency repairs 19,000 clean heat installations Cost of $8.4 billion rising to $11.5 billion Completion planned 2015

15 Progress Cook Strait and Eketahuna Cook Strait earthquakes : July 2013 Over 12,000 claims $29 million in settlements 97% settled Eketahuna earthquake: January 2014 Over 5,000 claims $8.9 million 91% settled

16 Reinsurance CHRP well received Funds into housing stock Controlled inflation Good relationships Biggest reinsurance programme Reinsurance continues

17 Options to Manage Disaster Risk Avoid exposure Control impact Transfer or pool Accept residual Land use planning Design and build Insurance (capital for recovery) Fix post-event; emergency response More explicit community engagement about trade-offs is needed

18 Risk Management Approaches AVOID exposure Risk Reduction through Land Use Planning Loss $ CONTROL impact Risk Reduction through Building Design/Controls Recovery funding through Insurance/Capital Markets TRANSFER Adaptive Capacity - Response and Recovery arrangements ACCEPT V. Low Frequency High

19 A Systemic Issue Planners Engineers Geologists Building control officials Communities Accountability for the risks that lie between boundaries

20 Review of Earthquake Commission Act 1993 Likely to consider: What EQC insures Price setting for EQC insurance Legislation governing operations Crown s risk exposure Reinsurance arrangements Customer interactions EQC Role in National Disaster Risk Management?

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