Market Briefing: Currencies

Market Briefing: Currencies September 16, 216 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Trade-Weighted Dollar 1 Euro & Pound 2 Swiss Franc & Krona 3 Yen & Won 4 Canadian & Australian Dollars 5 Real & Peso 6 Rupee & Rupiah 7 Ringitt & Yuan 8 Baht & Pesos 9 Lira & Ruble 1 Peso 11 Rand & Hryvnia 12 Misc. Exchange Rates 13-14 Large Speculators in Currencies 15 September 16, 216 / Market Briefing: Currencies www.

Trade-Weighted Dollar 135 13 Figure 1. JP MORGAN TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR INDEX* (2=1) 135 13 125 12 JP Morgan Nominal Broad Effective Exchange Rate (119.54) 125 12 115 115 11 11 15 15 1 1 95 95 9 9 85 85. * Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Rep., Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, Hong Kong, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Israel, Japan, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, Ukraine, UK, Uruguay, US, Venezuela, Vietnam, & Euro Area. 16 155 15 145 14 135 13 125 12 115 11 15 1 95 9 85 8 75 7 65 6 Figure 2. FED S TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR INDEXES Major* (3/73=1) Broad** (1/97=1) 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 9/9 9/9 16 155 15 145 14 135 13 125 12 115 11 15 1 95 9 85 8 75 7 65 6 * Major index is a weighted average of the foreign exchange rates of the US dollar against the Euro Area, Australia, Canada, Japan, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, ** Broad index is a weighted average of the foreign exchange rates of the US dollar against the Euro Area, Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Israel, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Philippines, Russia, Singapore, Spain, Saudi Arabia, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, United Kingdom, and Venezuela. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Page 1 / September 16, 216 / Market Briefing: Currencies www.

1.75 Figure 3. EUROZONE: US$/EURO Euro & Pound 1.75 D NIRP QE QEE 5 5 1.15 Euro (1.12) 1.15 5 5.7 2.2 2.1 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 D = ECB President Mario Draghi pledged to do "whatever it takes" to defend the euro (7/26/12). NIRP = negative interest-rate policy (6/5/214). QE (1/22/15). QEE = expansion and extension of QE (3/1/16, corporate bond purchases started 6/1/16). Figure 4. UK: US$/POUND.7 2.2 2.1 1.9 1 Pound (1) 1.9 1 1.7 1.7 Page 2 / September 16, 216 / Market Briefing: Currencies www.

.6.7 Figure 5. SWITZERLAND: SWISS FRANC/$ Swiss Franc & Krona.6.7.9 1.1.9 1.1 1.7 1 1.9 Swiss Franc (.98) 1.7 1 1.9 4.5 5.5 Figure 6. SWEDEN: KRONA/$ 4.5 5.5 6.5 6.5 7.5 7.5 8.5 9/15 8.5 9.5 Krona (8.48) 9.5 1 1 Page 3 / September 16, 216 / Market Briefing: Currencies www.

Yen & Won 6 Figure 7. JAPAN: YEN/US$ A 6 QQE QQEE NIRP 8 Yen (18) 8 1 9/15 1 12 12 14 14 16 Note: A = Markets start to anticipate Abenomics. QQE is Quantitative and Quantitative Easing. QQEE is the expanded and extended version of QQE. 16 6 8 Figure 8. SOUTH KOREA: WON/US$ 6 8 1 12 9/13 1 12 14 16 Won (1118) 14 16 18 18 2 2 Page 4 / September 16, 216 / Market Briefing: Currencies www.

.9 Figure 9. CANADA: C$/US$ Canadian & Australian Dollars.9 1.1 1.1 Canadian Dollar (2) 1.7 1.7 Figure 1. AUSTRALIA: A$/US$ 1 Australian Dollar (4) 1 2.2 2.2 Page 5 / September 16, 216 / Market Briefing: Currencies www.

.4.6 1 2.2 2.4 2.6 2 3. 3.2 3.4 3.6 3 4. 4.2 4.4 Figure 11. BRAZIL: REAL/US$ Real (3.3) Real & Peso.4.6 1 2.2 2.4 2.6 2 3. 3.2 3.4 3.6 3 4. 4.2 4.4 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 21 Figure 12. MEXICO: PESO/US$ Peso (19.67) 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 21 Page 6 / September 16, 216 / Market Briefing: Currencies www.

25 Figure 13. INDIA: RUPEE/$ Rupee & Rupiah 25 35 35 45 45 55 Rupee (67.1) 55 65 65 75 75 Figure 14. INDONESIA: RUPIA/$ 5 5 1 1 15 Rupia (13188.) 9/15 15 2 2 Page 7 / September 16, 216 / Market Briefing: Currencies www.

Figure 15. MALAYSIA: RINGGIT/$ Ringitt & Yuan 2.5 3. Ringgit (4.14) 2.5 3. 3.5 3.5 4. 9/15 4. 4.5 4.5 5. 5. 5.6 6. Figure 16. CHINA: YUAN/US$ 5.6 6. 6.4 6.4 6 6 7.2 7.6 Yuan (6.67) 7.2 7.6 8. 8. 8.4 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 8.4 Page 8 / September 16, 216 / Market Briefing: Currencies www.

15 2 Figure 17. THAILAND: BAHT/$ Baht & Pesos 15 2 25 Baht (349) 25 3 3 35 9/15 35 4 4 45 45 5 5 55 6 55 6 2 25 Figure 18. PHILIPPINES: PESOS/$ 2 25 3 3 35 Pesos (473) 35 4 4 45 5 45 5 55 55 6 6 Page 9 / September 16, 216 / Market Briefing: Currencies www.

-.5. Figure 19. TURKEY: LIRA/$ Lira & Ruble -.5..5 Lira (2.98).5 2.5 2.5 3. 3. 3.5 3.5-5 5 1 15 2 25 3 35 4 45 5 55 6 65 7 75 8 85 9 Figure 2. RUSSIA: RUBLE/$ Ruble (65.16) 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217-5 5 1 15 2 25 3 35 4 45 5 55 6 65 7 75 8 85 9 Page 1 / September 16, 216 / Market Briefing: Currencies www.

Figure 21. ARGENTINA: PESO/$ Peso 5 5 1 1 Peso (15.9) 15 15 2 2 3 35 Figure 22. CHILE: PESO/$) 3 35 4 45 Peso (676.49) 4 45 5 5 55 55 6 6 65 7 65 7 75 8 75 8 Page 11 / September 16, 216 / Market Briefing: Currencies www.

. Figure 23. SOUTH AFRICA: RAND/$ Rand & Hryvnia. 2.5 2.5 5. 5. 7.5 7.5 1. 1. Rand (14.3) 12.5 12.5 15. 15. 17.5 17.5 4 Figure 24. UKRAINE: HRYVNIA/$ 4 8 8 12 12 16 16 2 Hryvnia (259.11) 2 24 28 9/19 24 28 32 32 Page 12 / September 16, 216 / Market Briefing: Currencies www.

Misc. Exchange Rates Figure 25. JAPAN: US$/1YEN A QQE QQEE NIRP 1.1 Yen (.98) 1.1 9/15.9.9.7.7.6 Note: QQE is Quantitative and Quantitative Easing. QQEE is the expanded and extended version of QQE. NIRP is negative interest rate policy..6.9 1.1 1.7 1 1.9 2.1 2.2 Figure 26. FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES Canada (C$/US$) () Australia (A$/US$) () 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217.9 1.1 1.7 1 1.9 2.1 2.2 Page 13 / September 16, 216 / Market Briefing: Currencies www.

1 Figure 27. SWITZERLAND: SWISS FRANC/EURO Misc. Exchange Rates 1 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 Page 14 / September 16, 216 / Market Briefing: Currencies www.

9 7 5 3 1-1 -3-5 2 15 Figure 28. US DOLLAR INDEX (US dollar index x $1,) 9/13 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 EURO (contracts of 125, Euros) Large Speculators in Currencies YEN 9/13 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 CANADIAN DOLLAR (contracts of 1, Canadian Dollars) 1 75 5 25-25 -5-75 -1-125 -15-175 -2 15 125 1 1 5-5 -1 9/13 9/13 75 5 25-25 -15-5 -2-75 -25 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-1 125 1 POUND STERLING (contracts of 62,5 Pound Sterling) AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR (contracts of 1, Australian Dollars) 125 1 75 75 5 25 9/13 5 25-25 -25-5 -5-75 -1 9/13 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-75 -1 Source: Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Page 15 / September 16, 216 / Market Briefing: Currencies www.

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