US Economic Indicators: NFIB Small Business Survey

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1 US Economic Indicators: NFIB Small Business Survey June 1, Dr. Edward Yardeni Debbie Johnson Mali Quintana Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box

2 Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Small Business Optimism 1 Economic Conditions 2 Earnings & Capital Spending 3 Inventories & Sales Employment Credit 6 Pricing & Sales 7 Sales, Earnings, & Spending -9 Employment & Capital Spending Capital Spending 11 Small Business Problems - June 1, / NFIB Small Business Survey www.

3 1 Figure 1. NFIB: SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM INDEX (196=, sa) Small Business Optimism monthly -ma Figure 2. NFIB: SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM INDEX (196=, sa, -ma) Page 1 / June 1, / NFIB Small Business Survey www.

4 6 Figure 3. NFIB: PERCENT OF FIRMS EXPECTING ECONOMY TO IMPROVE (sa) Economic Conditions monthly -moving average Figure. NFIB: PERCENT REPORTING NOW IS A GOOD TIME TO EXPAND monthly data -ma Page 2 / June 1, / NFIB Small Business Survey www.

5 Figure. NFIB: EARNINGS OVER PAST 3 MONTHS (higher minus lower) Earnings & Capital Spending monthly data -ma Figure 6. NFIB: PERCENT PLANNING TO INCREASE CAPITAL EXPENDITURES IN THE NEXT 3 TO 6 MONTHS monthly data -ma Page 3 / June 1, / NFIB Small Business Survey www.

6 Figure 7. NFIB: NET PERCENT INCREASING INVENTORIES Inventories & Sales monthly -month average Figure. NFIB: NET PERCENT EXPECTING HIGHER REAL SALES IN 6 MONTHS monthly -ma Page / June 1, / NFIB Small Business Survey www.

7 Figure 9. Employment NFIB: PERCENT OF FIRMS EXPECTING TO INCREASE EMPLOYMENT monthly -ma Figure. NFIB: PERCENT OF FIRMS WITH ONE OR MORE JOB OPENINGS monthly -ma Page / June 1, / NFIB Small Business Survey www.

8 7 Figure 11. Credit NFIB: PERCENT BORROWING AT LEAST ONCE A QUARTER 7 3 -moving average monthly Source: National Federation of Small Business Figure. NFIB: NET PERCENT REPORTING THAT CREDIT WAS HARDER TO GET LAST TIME monthly -moving average Source: National Federation of Small Business. -2 Page 6 / June 1, / NFIB Small Business Survey www.

9 Pricing & Sales 3 Figure 13. NFIB: PRICING Percent Planning to Raise Average Selling Prices Percent Raising Average Selling Prices Figure 1. NFIB: PRICING (6-ma) Percent Planning to Raise Average Selling Prices Percent Raising Average Selling Prices Page 7 / June 1, / NFIB Small Business Survey www.

10 3 3 Figure. Sales, Earnings, & Spending UNEMPLOYMENT RATE & NFIB POOR SALES (percent) Poor Sales (6-ma). Unemployment Rate Source: National Federation of Small Business and Bureau of Labor Statistics. 3. Figure. NFIB: SMALL BUSINESS EARNINGS & CAPITAL SPENDING (-month average, percent) Capital Spending Plans (next 3 to 6 months) Earnings Over Past 3 Months (higher minus lower) Page / June 1, / NFIB Small Business Survey www.

11 2 Figure 17. Sales, Earnings, & Spending NFIB: SMALL BUSINESS REPORTING GOOD TIME TO EXPAND & EARNINGS (-month average, percent) - - Good Time To Expand -3 Earnings Over Past 3 Months (higher minus lower) Figure 1. NFIB: SMALL BUSINESS REPORTING GOOD TIME TO EXPAND & CAPITAL SPENDING (-month average, percent) 3 3 Capital Spending (next 3 to 6 months) Good Time To Expand Page 9 / June 1, / NFIB Small Business Survey www.

12 3 3 2 Figure 19. Employment & Capital Spending NFIB: SMALL BUSINESS EMPLOYMENT MEASURES (-month average, percent) Firms With One Or More Job Openings Expecting To Increase Employment Figure. NFIB: SMALL BUSINESS REPORTING GOOD TIME TO EXPAND, CAPITAL SPENDING & EMPLOYMENT PLANS (-month average, percent) Capital Spending (next 3 to 6 months) 3 Good Time To Expand 3 Plans To Increase Employment Page / June 1, / NFIB Small Business Survey www.

13 Capital Spending Figure Q1 2 - NFIB Capital Spending Intentions Index Real Spending on Equipment & Software (yearly percent change) Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Federation of Independent Business Figure 22. NFIB (percent) 7 6 Businesses Making a Capital Expenditure During the Last 6 Months 6 3 Percent Planning Capital Expenditures Next 3 to 6 Months Page 11 / June 1, / NFIB Small Business Survey www.

14 3 3 2 Figure 23. Small Business Problems MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEMS SMALL BUSINESSES FACE (percent, 6-month moving average) Poor Sales Taxes Government Regulation Financial & Interest Rates Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: National Federation of Small Business. 3 Figure. NFIB: SMALL BUSINESS EARNINGS & UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (-month average, percent) Unemployment Rate (percent, inverted scale) Earnings Over Past 3 Months (higher minus lower) Source: National Federation of Independent Business and Bureau of Labor Statistics. - Page / June 1, / NFIB Small Business Survey www.

15 3 Figure 2. NFIB & UNEMPLOYMENT RATE Small Business Problems NFIB: Percent Of Firms With One or More Job Openings (-month average, percent) Unemployment Rate (percent, inverted scale) Source: National Federation of Independent Business and Bureau of Labor Statistics Figure 26. NFIB: SMALL BUSINESS EARNINGS & POOR SALES (percent) Percent Reporting Poor Sales (-month moving average, inverted scale) Earnings Over Past 3 Months (higher minus lower, -month average) Page 13 / June 1, / NFIB Small Business Survey www.

16 Figure 27. NFIB Small Business Problems NFIB: Percent Of Firms With One or More Job Openings (-month average, percent) Percent Reporting Poor Sales (6-month moving average, inverted scale) Figure 2. NFIB: EXPANSION PLANS (-month average, percent) Capital Spending Plans (next 3 to 6 months) Percent of Firms With One or More Job Openings Percent of Firms Expecting to Increase Employment Page 1 / June 1, / NFIB Small Business Survey www.

17 Small Business Problems Figure 29. NFIB: JOB OPENINGS & JOBS PLENTIFUL (sa) NFIB: Firms with One or More Job Openings (-month average, percent) (27.1) Jobs Plentiful (percent saying so) (.3) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and National Federation of Small Business. Figure 3. NFIB: SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM INDEX & UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 3 6 NFIB: Percent of Positions Not Able to Fill (27.) Unemployment Rate (.7) Source: National Federation of Independent Business and Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2 Page / June 1, / NFIB Small Business Survey www.

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