Stock Market Briefing: S&P 500 Profit Margins, Sectors & Industries

Transcription

1 Stock Market Briefing: S&P Profit Margins, Sectors & Industries February, 1 Dr. Edward Yardeni 1-- eyardeni@ Joe Abbott -- jabbott@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box

2 Table Of Contents Table Of Contents S&P Operating Profit Margins S&P Profit Margin - S&P Sectors Operating Profit Margins S&P Sectors Forecasted & Actual Profit Margins Consumer Discretionary - Consumer Staples Energy Health Care Industrials Information Technology Materials Materials & Telecommunication Services 1 February, 1 / Stock Market Briefing: S&P Profit Margins, Sectors & Industries www.

3 Figure 1. S&P PROFIT MARGIN (percent, quarterly) S&P Profit Margin Operating (.) Reported (.) Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation (revenues and reported EPS) and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S (operating EPS). - Figure. S&P PROFIT MARGIN (percent, trailing four-quarter average) Operating (.) Reported (.) Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation (revenues and reported EPS) and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S (operating EPS). Page / February, 1 / Stock Market Briefing: S&P Profit Margins, Sectors & Industries www.

4 Figure. S&P OPERATING PROFIT MARGIN (percent) Quarterly (.) Trailing Four-Quarter Average (.) S&P Profit Margin Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation. 1 Figure. S&P REPORTED PROFIT MARGIN (percent) 1 - quarterly (.) trailing four-quarter average (.) Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Bureau of Economic Analysis. -1 Page / February, 1 / Stock Market Briefing: S&P Profit Margins, Sectors & Industries www.

5 S&P Profit Margin Figure. S&P PROFIT MARGIN (percent, using analysts average earnings and revenues forecasts) / Consensus Forecasts Annual -Week Forward* * Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year. Monthly through December, weekly thereafter. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. and Standard & Poor s. Figure. S&P PROFIT MARGIN (percent) 1/ S&P Profit Margin -week forward* Operating Profit Margin (trailing four-quarter average) * Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor s Corporation. Page / February, 1 / Stock Market Briefing: S&P Profit Margins, Sectors & Industries www.

6 Figure. S&P & PROFIT MARGIN S&P Index (1.) Operating Trailing -Quarter Profit Margin (.) S&P Profit Margin 1/ Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Figure. S&P & FORWARD PROFIT MARGIN S&P Index (1.) Forward Profit Margin (.) 1/ 1/ * Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year. Monthly through December, weekly thereafter. Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page / February, 1 / Stock Market Briefing: S&P Profit Margins, Sectors & Industries www.

7 1 Figure. S&P Sectors Operating Profit Margins CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY Operating Profit Margin* (trailing -quarter, %) Sector (.) S&P (.) INDUSTRIALS (.) CONSUMER STAPLES INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY 1 1 (.) (1.) ENERGY (.) MATERIALS (.) FINANCIALS (1.) TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES (.) HEALTH CARE UTILITIES (.) (.1) * Operating margin in percent and based on trailing -quarter EPS and sales. Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation. Page / February, 1 / Stock Market Briefing: S&P Profit Margins, Sectors & Industries www.

8 1 S&P Sectors Forecasted & Actual Profit Margins Figure. CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY / Operating Profit Margin* Actual -Q Trailing Implied Forward INDUSTRIALS /.... CONSUMER STAPLES 1/ INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY 1/ ENERGY MATERIALS 1/ 1/ FINANCIALS 1/ TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES 1/ HEALTH CARE 1/ UTILITIES 1/ * Actual from S&P based on trailing -quarter EPS and sales. Forecast implied from Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S consensus forward EPS and sales, and pushed one year ahead. Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation (trailing -quarter margin) and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S (forward margin). Page / February, 1 / Stock Market Briefing: S&P Profit Margins, Sectors & Industries www.

9 Figure. Consumer Discretionary S&P OPERATING PROFIT MARGINS: CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY (trailing -quarter EPS, percent) Consumer Discretionary Sector (.) Advertising (.) Automobile Manufacturers (.) Auto Parts & Equipment (.) Publishing (.) Figure. S&P OPERATING PROFIT MARGINS: CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY (trailing -quarter EPS, percent) Consumer Discretionary Sector (.) Casinos & Gaming (.) Movies & Entertainment (1.) Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines (.) Restaurants (1.) Page / February, 1 / Stock Market Briefing: S&P Profit Margins, Sectors & Industries www.

10 Figure 1. Consumer Discretionary S&P OPERATING PROFIT MARGINS: CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY (trailing -quarter EPS, percent) 1 Consumer Discretionary Sector (.) Apparel Retail (.) Department Stores (.) Specialty Stores (.) Figure 1. S&P OPERATING PROFIT MARGINS: CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY (trailing -quarter EPS, percent) Consumer Discretionary Sector (.) Household Appliances (.) Homebuilding (.) Computer & Electronics Retail (.) Home Improvement Retail (.) 1 - Margins capped at -% due to extreme values Page / February, 1 / Stock Market Briefing: S&P Profit Margins, Sectors & Industries www.

11 1 Figure 1. Consumer Staples S&P OPERATING PROFIT MARGINS: CONSUMER STAPLES (trailing -quarter EPS, percent) 1 1 Consumer Staples Sector (.) Household Products (1.) Packaged Foods & Meats (.) Personal Products (.) Figure 1. S&P OPERATING PROFIT MARGINS: CONSUMER STAPLES (trailing -quarter EPS, percent) 1 Consumer Staples Sector (.) Brewers (1.) Drug Retail (.) Soft Drinks (1.) Tobacco (.) Page / February, 1 / Stock Market Briefing: S&P Profit Margins, Sectors & Industries www.

12 Figure 1. S&P OPERATING PROFIT MARGINS: ENERGY (trailing -quarter EPS, percent) Energy Sector (.) Integrated Oil & Gas (.) Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing (.) Energy Figure 1. S&P OPERATING PROFIT MARGINS: ENERGY (trailing -quarter EPS, percent) Energy Sector (.) Oil & Gas Drilling (1.) Oil & Gas Equipment & Services (.) Oil & Gas Exploration & Production (.) Page / February, 1 / Stock Market Briefing: S&P Profit Margins, Sectors & Industries www.

13 Figure 1. Health Care S&P OPERATING PROFIT MARGINS: HEALTH CARE (trailing -quarter EPS, percent) 1 Health Care Sector (.) Biotechnology (1.) Health Care Equipment (1.) Managed Health Care (.) Figure. S&P OPERATING PROFIT MARGINS: HEALTH CARE (trailing -quarter EPS, percent) 1 Health Care Sector (.) Health Care Facilities (.) Pharmaceuticals (.) Health Care Distributors (1.) Page / February, 1 / Stock Market Briefing: S&P Profit Margins, Sectors & Industries www.

14 1 Figure 1. Industrials S&P OPERATING PROFIT MARGINS: INDUSTRIALS (trailing -quarter EPS, percent) 1 Industrials Sector (.) Construction Machinery & Heavy Trucks (.) Industrial Conglomerates (.) Industrial Machinery (.) Figure. S&P OPERATING PROFIT MARGINS: INDUSTRIALS (trailing -quarter EPS, percent) Industrials Sector (.) Aerospace & Defense (.) Electrical Components & Equipment (.) Page / February, 1 / Stock Market Briefing: S&P Profit Margins, Sectors & Industries www.

15 Figure. Information Technology S&P OPERATING PROFIT MARGINS: INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY (trailing -quarter EPS, percent) Information Technology Sector (1.) Application Software (1.) Data Processing & Outsourcing (1.) IT Consulting & Other Services (1.) Systems Software (.) Figure. S&P OPERATING PROFIT MARGINS: INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY (trailing -quarter EPS, percent) Information Technology Sector (1.) Communications Equipment (.) Semiconductors (.) Semiconductor Equipment (1.) Page / February, 1 / Stock Market Briefing: S&P Profit Margins, Sectors & Industries www.

16 Figure. Materials S&P OPERATING PROFIT MARGINS: MATERIALS (trailing -quarter EPS, percent) - - Materials Sector (.) Aluminum (.1) Paper Products (.) Steel (.) Figure. S&P OPERATING PROFIT MARGINS: MATERIALS (trailing -quarter EPS, percent) 1 Materials Sector (.) Diversified Chemicals (.) Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals (1.) Industrial Gases (1.) Specialty Chemicals (.) Page / February, 1 / Stock Market Briefing: S&P Profit Margins, Sectors & Industries www.

17 1 Figure. Materials & Telecommunication Services S&P OPERATING PROFIT MARGINS: MATERIALS (trailing -quarter EPS, percent) Materials Sector (.) Gold (.) Metal & Glass Containers (.) Diversified Metals & Mining (.1) Paper Packaging (.1) Figure. S&P OPERATING PROFIT MARGINS: TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES (trailing -quarter EPS, percent) Telecommunication Services Sector (.) Integrated Telecommunication (.) Page 1 / February, 1 / Stock Market Briefing: S&P Profit Margins, Sectors & Industries www.

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