Studies on Market and Technologies for IMT in the Next Decade CJK-IMT Working Group Dr. LEE, HyeonWoo (woojaa@keit.re.kr) ITU-R Working Party 5D Workshop IMT for the Next Decade March 21 st 2011, Bangkok Thailand
Development of mobile communications Current development of mobile communications Forecast of subscriber, service and application trends; identify driving force of mobile data increase; Forecast of traffic load and network capacity increase Key technology developments Capacity aspect: identify a few key technologies that may largely improve system capacity in the coming 5-10 years; Other key technical requirements Key factors to support market requirements of IMT in the Next Decade Summary 2
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Per 100 inhabitants 100 90 80 70 60 50 Global ICT developments, 2000-2010* Mobile cellular telephone subscriptions Internet users Fixed telephone lines Mobile broadband subscriptions Fixed broadband subscriptions Mobile cellular phone subscriptions High penetration rate and its growth Imbalance between developing and developed countries 67.6 vs. 116.1 per 100 inhabitants* 40 30 20 Mobile broadband subscriptions Overtake fixed broadband since 2008 10 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010* *Estimates Source: ITU World Telecommunication /ICT Indicators database Still low, thus very large potentiality to increase * Source: ITU World Telecommunication /ICT Indicators database 4
Mobile cellular subscriptions (millions) Mobile cellular subscriptions per 100 inhabitants (millions) Growth rate (%) Mobile cellular subscriptions Mobile cellular subscriptions per 100 inhabitants 6000 5000 4000 3000 The Americas Europe 140 120 100 80 Note: 2010 data are estimates. Source: ITU World Telecommunication / ICT Indicators Database 25.0 20.0 15.0 2000 1000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 CIS Arab States Africa Asia & Pacific 60 40 20 0 CIS Europe The Americas Arab States Asia & Pacific Africa 10.0 5.0 0.0 Note: Rounded values. 2010 data are estimates. Source: ITU World Telecommunication / ICT Indicators Database Mobile cellular subscriptions per 100 inhabitants in 2010 growth rate 2009/2010 Asia Pacific Market shares about 50% of worldwide mobile subscriptions the highest growth rate of 22% in the world 5
3 Billions 5 Billions downloads 6
500 times growth in data traffic demands of 2010 in 2020 Explosive growth of mobile data traffic in recent years Region Korea Mobile Operator and Content Provider Examples From mid-2009 to mid-2010, KT recorded a 344% increase in 3G mobile data traffic, SK Telecom's traffic grew 232%, and LG's traffic grew 114%. KT expects a 49-fold increase in mobile device traffic from 2009 to 2012, but plans to offload 40 percent of this traffic. Japan Softbank's mobile traffic grew 260% from 1Q 2009 to 1Q 2010, according to estimates by HSBC. China KDDI expects mobile data traffic to grow 15-fold by 2015. China Unicom's 3G traffic increased 62% in a single quarter from Q1 to Q2 of 2010. France SFR's mobile data traffic has tripled each year since 2008. Italy Telecom Italia delivered 15 times more mobile data traffic in 2010 than in 2007. Europe Vodafone's European mobile data traffic increased 115% from 1Q 2009 to 2Q 2009, and 88% from 2Q 2009 to 2Q 2010. TeliaSonera expects mobile data traffic to double each year for the next 5 years. United AT&T reports that traffic grew 30-fold from 3Q 2009 to 3Q 2010. States Global Google reports that the number of YouTube videos delivered to mobile devices tripled in 2010, reaching 200 million video views per day. Cisco Forecast: by 2015, a 26-fold increase of mobile data traffic over 2010 Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index: Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast Update, 2010 2015 7
Dominant application: Video Dominant devices: Laptops and smart phones by application category by device type CAGR Mobile Video 103.8% Mobile Web/Data 80.4% Mobile P2P 62.4% CAGR Laptops and Netbooks 85.0% Smartphones 115.9% Home Gateways 75.6% Source: Cisco VNI Mobile, 2011 8
Divergent mobile devices Smart phone, tablet PC, laptop, etc. Dramatically increasing usage of existing applications Growth of internet services in mobile environment such as Mobile Internet, mobile music, mobile video, mobile TV, LBS, augmented reality, etc. Convergence Convergence of mobile communications and energy, healthcare, transportation, IT(e.g. for enterprise) create new applications: smart grid, ehealth, intelligent transportation (and other M2M communication applications), cloud computing, etc. 9
User experience improvement Higher data rate, lower latency, longer battery duration time, etc. Advanced operating systems with friendly user interface for mobile devices Cost reduction and price decrease Cost reduction of mobile communication network infrastructure Price decrease and flexible pricing schemes, e.g. flat rate mobile data pricing Policy to promote mobile broadband US FCC National Broadband Plan, EU Digital Agenda, etc. 10
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Enhanced IMT-2000 capability Evolution of radio-access scheme Channel-dependent packet scheduling Higher-order modulation and MIMO Improved Layer 2 control, etc. Very high Mobility New capabilities of IMT-Advanced IMT-Advanced technologies*: LTE-Advanced (SRIT) WirelessMAN-Advanced (RIT) High IMT-2000 Enhanced IMT-2000 New Mobile Access Mobility Support low to very high mobility Low New Nomadic / Local Area Wireless Access Throughput / Capacity Support high throughput depending on user mobility Low 1 10 100 1000 /Mbps Peak data rate Peak data rate Support very high peak data rate, assuming sufficient spectrum * In Oct. 2010, ITU-R completed the assessment of candidate submissions for IMT-Advanced. The two technologies, LTE-Advanced (SRIT) and WirelessMAN- Advanced RIT were accorded the official designation of IMT-Advanced High Throughput Nomadic / Local Area Access Systems Digital Broadcast Systems 12
Network capacity improvement (in less than 3 years) Rollout of advanced networks Network optimization Mobile traffic offloading Fixed-Mobile network integration Network capacity improvement (in 5~10 years) Advanced cell deployment technology Spectrum efficiency improvement Additional new spectrum Such as smallcell deployment, HetNet, SDMA, etc. Improvement of RIT spectrum efficiency Allocation of additional new spectrum 13
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Advanced Cell Deployment Cell splitting gain Spectrum Efficiency Almost saturated New Spectrum Depending on channel bandwidth Improvement Macro Pico/Femto or Distributed antenna SDMA Improvement: Collaborative Comm. Partial Meshing New PHY/MAC Improvement More than 5 times if CBW 20 100 MHz Key Enablers: Site Acquisition Backhaul Infrastructure Small size light weight Key Enablers: Evolution of IMT-Advanced standard Key Enablers: Channel Aggregation Ultra Wideband Radio New Spectrum 15
Expected per-user bandwidth = System badwidth # users in a cell \ The smaller cells are, the more per-user throughput is expected data traffic Voice service IP over radio Multimedia and clouding 16
Essential to serve data traffic demands The question is when it needs, and how much it needs Capacity Traffic demands Required additional spectrum Time to require System capacity (based on current spectrum allocation) Time 17
Spectrum for IMT Identified IMT spectrum far less than required spectrum Required spectrum: 1280MHz (Low Market), 1720MHz (High Market) Even identified IMT spectrum is not fully used for IMT in a country. Identified spectrum amount for IMT by Region Region 1 715 MHz (Global) 170 MHz (Regional) Region 2/3 715 MHz (Global) 262 MHz (Regional) Country-base 200MHz 18
Harmonization of IMT spectrum is key element for cost-efficient device markets Enabling global roaming & certification Economy of scale & cost reduction in manufacturing thereof Impact on handset costs Extra cost on a handset Resulting in a $30 (US) handset costing 800 million units per year (Global) 80 million units per year (China) 8 million units per year (Romania, Venezuela) 15 cents $1.5 $15 $30.15 $31.5 $45 * Source: GSMA at http://www.gsmworld.com/newsroom/document-library/1691.htm 19
Mobile business and subscribers are continually growing More than 500 times increase in traffic demands in 2020 Technology has been continually advanced and will be advanced in next decades However, even with the technology advance, spectrum is not be sufficient to serves the increased demands Additional spectrum is a key element for future mobile market Spectrum harmonization is also important that bring economy of scale of the product and future proof of the market 20