U.S. ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
Index of Leading Economic Indicators 140 Index 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Recession Leading Index (Aug-18-release, Jul = 124.3) Source: The Conference Board
4-week MA Thousands of Initial Claims Initial Claims for Unemployment and Unemployment Rate Percent Unemployment 700 625 550 475 400 325 250 19971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016 Initial Claims (Aug-18-release, Aug 13=265) Recession Unemployment Rate (Aug-05-release, Jul=4.9) 10.5 9.5 8.5 7.5 6.5 5.5 4.5 3.5 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor
Housing Starts and Permits Thousands 2,300 1,900 1,500 1,100 700 300 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Recession Housing Starts (Aug-16-release, Jul = 1211) Permits Issued (Aug-16-release, Jul = 1152) Source: Bureau of the Census
Industrial Production 1-month % change 2 1 0-1 -2-3 -4-5 Aug-16-release, Jul = 0.7 Source: Federal Reserve Board
Percent 87 Manufacturing Capacity Utilization Rate 83 79 75 71 67 63 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Recession CU Rate (Aug-16-release, Jul = 75.4) Historic Average (1948-present) Source: Federal Reserve Board
Consumer Confidence/Sentiment Index 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Recession Confidence (Jul-26-release, Jul = 97.3) Sentiment (Aug-12-release, Aug = 90.4) Consumer Sentiment: Survey of Consumers, Survey Research Center, U. of Michigan Consumer Confidence: The Conference Board
Retail Sales 1-month % change 4 3 2 1 0-1 -2-3 -4 Aug-12-release, Jul = -0.04 Source: Bureau of the Census
Retail Sales, Excluding Autos 1-month % change 4 3 2 1 0-1 -2-3 -4 Aug-12-release, Jul = 0.29 Source: Bureau of the Census
Change in Nonfarm Employment Thousands of jobs 600 300 0-300 -600-900 Aug-05-release, Jul = 255 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
U.S. Imports and Exports Billions of Dollars 300 280 260 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Recession Exports (Aug-05-release, Jun = 183.2) Imports (Aug-05-release, Jun = 227.7) Source: Bureau of the Census
New Orders for Durable Goods Billions of Dollars 295 270 245 220 195 170 145 120 95 70 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Durable Goods (Aug-04-release, Jun = 219.8) Excl. Transportation (Aug-04-release, Jun = 147.7) Recession Source: Bureau of the Census
ISM Non-Manufacturing Activity Index Index 70 60 50 40 30 Aug-03-release, Jul = 59.3 Source : Institute for Supply Management
Personal Income 1-month % change 4 3 2 1 0-1 -2-3 -4-5 Aug-02-release, Jun = 0.18 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
1-month % change 1.0 Real Personal Consumption Expenditures 0.5 0.0-0.5-1.0-1.5 Aug-02-release, Jun = 0.32 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
1-month % change 1.5 Nominal Personal Consumption Expenditures 1.0 0.5 0.0-0.5-1.0-1.5 Aug-02-release, Jun = 0.42 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Purchasing Managers Index Index 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 Aug-01-release, Jul = 52.6 Source: Institute for Supply Management
Real Value of the Dollar March 1973 = 100 120 110 100 90 80 70 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Exchange Value of the US$ (Aug-01- release, Jul=98.2) US$ vs Major Currencies* (Aug-01- release, Jul=103.3) * Euro Area, Canada, Japan, UK, Switzerland, Australia, and Sweden Source: Federal Reserve Board
Real GDP 1-quarter % change, annualized 6 4 2 0-2 -4-6 -8-10 Jul-29-release, Q2 = 1.2 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Home Sales Thousands of New Homes 1,400 Thousands of Existing Homes 6,800 1,200 1,000 5,800 800 4,800 600 400 3,800 200 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2,800 New Home Sales (Jul-26- release, Jun = 592) Existing Home Sales (Jul-21- release, Jun = 4920) Recession Source: Bureau of the Census, National Association of Realtors
WAGES AND PRICES
Consumer Price Index 1-month % change 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0-0.5-1.0-1.5-2.0 Aug-16-release, Jul = -0.04 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Core Consumer Price Index 1-month % change 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0-0.1-0.2 Aug-16-release, Jul = 0.09 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Producer Price Index 1-month % change 4 3 2 1 0-1 -2-3 Aug-12-release, Jul = -0.5 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Core Producer Price Index 1-month % change 1.0 0.5 0.0-0.5-1.0 Aug-12-release, Jul = -0.2 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Nonfarm Business Productivity 1-quarter % change, annualized 10 8 6 4 2 0-2 -4 Aug-09-release, Q2 = -0.5 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Nonfarm Business Unit Labor Cost 1-quarter % change, annualized 15 12 9 6 3 0-3 -6-9 Aug-09-release, Q2 = 2 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Average Hourly Earnings 1-month % change 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0-0.1-0.2 Aug-05-release, Jul = 0.33 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Commodity Prices 1967=100, EOP 1,100 900 700 500 300 100 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 KR-CRB Spot Commodity Price Index: Metals (Aug-03- release, Jul=705) Recession KR-CRB Spot Commodity Price Index: Raw Industrials (Aug-03- release, Jul=459.2) Source: Commodity Research Bureau
PCE Price Index 1-month % change 1.0 0.5 0.0-0.5-1.0-1.5 Aug-02-release, Jun = 0.1 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Core PCE Price Index 1-month % change 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0-0.1 Aug-02-release, Jun = 0.07 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
ISM Manufacturing Prices Index Index 105 95 85 75 65 55 45 35 25 15 Aug-01-release, Jul = 55 Source : Institute for Supply Management
Employment Cost Index 1-quarter % change 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 Jul-29-release, Q2 = 0.6 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
FINANCIAL-SECTOR DEVELOPMENTS
Percent 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Recession Probability Real-time Neftci probability calculated from 10-yr. 1-yr. Treasury yield spread 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Recession Neftci Recession Probability Crosses 70% threshold with a lead of between 5 and 18 months, and averaging 11 months. *Indicator properties of the yield curve may be distorted during this period due to the zero bound on shortterm interest rates and Federal Reserve purchases of long-term Treasuries. Source: Federal Reserve Board; calculations by FRB Dallas Extraordinary monetary policy*
4 Percent Real Federal Funds Rate 2 0-2 -1.68-2.13-4 -6 End-of-Month Target Fed Funds Rate less SPF Expected Inflation Target Fed Funds Rate (Aug-19) less SPF Expected Inflation (Aug-12) End-of-Month Target Fed Funds Rate less U. of Michigan Expected Inflation Target Fed Funds Rate (Aug-19) less U. of Michigan Expected Inflation (Aug-12) Sources: Target Fed Funds Rate: Federal Reserve Board; SPF Expected Inflation: FRB Philadelphia; U. of Michigan Expected Inflation: Survey of Consumers, Survey Research Center, U. of Michigan
Percent 7 Short-Term Interest Rates 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Target Fed Fund Rate (Aug 19 = 0.375) Source: Federal Reserve Board 3-Month T-Bill Rate (Aug 19 = 0.3) Discount Window Primary Credit Rate (Aug 18 = 1) 3-month LIBOR (Aug 19 = 0.817)
Long-Term Interest Rates Percent 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Mortgage Rate (week of Aug 18 = 3.43) 10-year T-Bond (week of Aug 19= 1.56) 10-year T-Bond (Aug 19 = 1.58) Source: Federal Reserve Board
Percent 18 15 12 9 6 3 0 Bond Spreads Merrill Lynch s Yield on Low-Grade Corporate Bonds, Moody s AAA and BAA Corporate Percent 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 Low-Grade Corporate less AAA Corporate (week of Aug 12 = 3.49) Daily (Aug 18 = 3.41) BAA Corporate less AAA Corporate (week of Aug 12 = 0.91) Daily (Aug 18 = 0.95) Source: Moody s Investors Service, Merrill Lynch
Yield Curve Percent 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 3-Month T-Bill Rate (week of Aug 19) 3-Month T-Bill Rate (Aug 19 = 0.3) 1-year T-Bill Rate (week of Aug 19) 1-year T-Bill Rate (Aug 19 = 0.59) 10-year T-Bond Rate (week of Aug 19) 10-year T-Bond Rate (Aug 19 = 1.58) Source: Federal Reserve Board
Money Supply: M1 1-month % change, annualized 120 90 60 30 0-30 Aug-18-release, Jul = -1.62 Source: Federal Reserve Board
Money Supply: M2 1-month % change, annualized 40 30 20 10 0-10 Aug-18-release, Jul = 7.81 Source: Federal Reserve Board