Analyzing Risk in an Investment Portfolio

Transcription

1 Introduction Analyzing Risk in an Investment Portfolio October 16, 2012

2 PUBLIC TRUST ADVISORS Neil Waud, CFA Director Portfolio Management (303) Matthew Tight Vice President Sales and Marketing (303)

3 IT S ROUGH OUT THERE 0.60% 0.55% 0.50% 0.45% 0.40% 0.35% 0.30% 0.25% 0.20% 0.15% 0.10% 0.05% 0.00% 10/3/2012 Current Treasury Yields 3 Month 6 Month 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 3

4 THE THREE PILLARS OF INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT SAFETY If I lend a dollar in principal, will I get it back in a timely manner? LIQUIDITY Will I have sufficient funds on hand to meet my needs? YIELD Am I earning a market rate of return on my investment? What are the risks to be aware of while pursuing these goals in an investment portfolio? 4

5 SAFETY ABOVE ALL ELSE Safety relates to the return OF, rather than the return ON your invested principal. Paid in Full Partial Default Total Loss How do you measure the strength of your counterparty when investing? 5

6 SAFETY RATING AGENCY SCALES LONG - TERM RATING SCALES COMPARISON MOODY'S Aaa Aa1 Aa2 Aa3 A1 A2 A3 Baa1 Baa2 Baa3 S&P AAA AA+ Aa2 AA- A+ A A- BBB+ BBB BBB- FITCH AAA AA+ Aa2 AA- A+ A A- BBB+ BBB BBB- SHORT - TERM RATINGS SCALES COMPARISON MOODY'S P-1 P-2 P-3 S&P A-1+ /A-1 A-2 A-3 FITCH F1+ / F1 F2 F3 6

7 SAFETY THE LESSONS FROM 2008 The credit crisis of 2008 reminded investors that it is unwise to rely solely on rating agencies to gauge counterparty risk. MOODY'S AVERAGE CORPORATE DEFAULT RATE BY RATING, Aaa Aa A Baa 0.000% 0.062% 0.097% 0.272% MOODY'S AVERAGE CORPORATE DEFAULT RATE BY RATING FOR 2008 Aaa Aa A Baa 0.000% 0.574% 0.474% 0.488% 0X 9X 5X 2X 7

8 SAFETY - WHAT A RATING CAN T TELL YOU FROM A GLANCE Selected Commercial Paper Offerings 10/01/12 Why does Atlantic Asset yield twice as much as similarly rated (A-1/P-1) JPMorgan Chase and United Technology Corporation for the same maturity date? To make an informed investment decision financial and economic analysis is needed. 8

9 SAFETY BEYOND THE RATINGS Long-Term Rating Sector Purpose Guarantor Moody's S&P Fitch Atlantic Asset Financial Asset Backed Credit Agricole A2 (negative outlook) A (stable outlook) A+ (negative outlook) JPMorgan Chase Financial Banking JPMorgan Chase & Co A2 (negative outlook) A (negative outlook) A+ (stable outlook) United Technology Industrial Aerospace/Defense United Technology Corp A2 (negative outlook) A (stable outlook) A (stable outlook) Atlantic Asset (0.30%) Asset backed program with credit enhancement from Credit Agricole (French). Due to the poor macroeconomic outlook for Europe, and sizeable exposure to Greece through banking operations, Credit Agricole is not without risk. JPMorgan Chase (0.15%) General obligation of the largest bank in the U.S. by assets. Despite risk-management issues and on-going lawsuits for the 2008 credit crisis, it is still considered too big to fail with implied support from the U.S. Government. United Technology Corporation (0.12%) U.S. multinational conglomerate that researches, develops and manufactures aerospace and defense products. A well diversified company with strong financials and free cash flow, near term risks are viewed as limited. Utilizing long-term ratings in conjunction with macroeconomic analysis provides more transparency when analyzing counterparty risk. 9

10 SAFETY MARKET SIGNALS If the markets are efficient, real-time data can provide valuable insight to perceived risk. Five Year Credit Default Swaps for Banks - 10/02/12 Bank of America Morgan Stanley Credit Agricole Tokyo-Mit UFJ Deutsche Bank Std Chartered Credit Suisse BNP Paribas Wells Fargo JPMorgan Citigroup Goldman Mizuho Barclays Soc Gen Nomura BBVA ING RBS UBS More Perceived Risk Less Perceived Risk Quoted in basis points Example: To insure $10M in Wells Fargo Bonds from default for 5 years you would pay $10,000,000 X.0085 = $85,000 / per year 10

11 SAFETY THE SOVEREIGNS Five Year Credit Default Swaps Sovereigns -10/02/12 Netherlands Argentina Germany Australia Denmark Portugal Sweden Norway Mexico Ireland Finland France Spain Brazil Japan China Italy U.K. USA More Perceived Risk Less Perceived Risk Quoted in basis points Example: To insure $10M in U.S. Treasury Bonds from default for 5 years you would pay $10,000,000 X.0036 = $36,000 / per year 11

12 LIQUIDITY - A CLOSER LOOK Liquidity The degree that an investment can be bought or sold without affecting its market price. Apple, Inc. (AAPL), the largest publicly-traded corporation in the world by market capitalization. On average, over 17M shares trade every day. Closing price on 10/10/12 $640. The Mona Lisa, property of the French Republic, currently on display at the Louvre in Paris. Valued at $100M in 1962 for insurance coverage. One of a kind, current price???. 12

13 LIQUIDITY NO BAD ASSETS, JUST BAD PRICES Major Asset Classes Permitted By C.R.S Cash U.S. Treasuries U.S. Agencies / Instrumentalities Corporate Debt Municipal Debt Certificate of Deposit Bank Deposits T-Bills Discount Notes Commercial Paper General Obligation Negotiable LGIP T-Notes Medium Term Notes Medium-Term Notes Revenue Non-Negotiable Repo Agreements Callable Notes Floating Rate Notes Mortgage Pass Through More Liquid Less Liquid 1. Size of the market, frequency of trades, ease of valuation and issue size can all impact liquidity. 2. Liquid investments have a narrow spread between the bid (purchase) and offer (sale) price. 3. Illiquid investments may face marked-to market losses when forced into a sale. 13

14 YIELD HARD TIMES 1.20% 1.00% Historical Treasury Yield Comparison 10/1/ /3/ % 0.60% 0.40% 0.20% 0.00% 3 Month 6 Month 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 14

15 YIELD 3 COMMON OBSERVATIONS 1. As the global financial crisis grinds on and on, yields can certainly head lower. 2. When yields eventually head higher, it may end badly for investors who have overly extended their portfolios. 3. No one has any idea when the shift to higher rates will occur! 15

16 YIELD STAYING FOCUSED ON THE LONG RUN Using a benchmark keeps you focused on your long-term investment goals. A good benchmark has the following traits: 1. Appropriate 2. Reflective of Current Investment Opinions 3. Measurable 4. Specified In Advance Common Benchmarks for Public Investments Duration Yield LGIP (COLOTRUST) 1 day 0.26% Six Month T-Bill 6 month 0.14% 12 Month T-Bill 12 month 0.16% Merrill Lynch 1-3 Year Treasury Index 1.88 year 0.25% Merrill Lynch 1-5 Year Treasury Index 2.73 year 0.34% 16

17 Annual Return Negative Quarters YIELD COMPARATIVE BENCHMARKS Annual Return Index Comparison Ten Year Period Ended June 30, % % % % % 2.00% % % 3 Mnth Tbill 6 Mnth Tbill 12 Mnth Tbill 1-3 Yr UST 1-3 Yr UST/Agy 1-3 Yr Corp/Gov 3-5 Yr UST 5-7 Yr UST 0 17

18 YIELD DON T FIGHT THE FED Due to historically low rates, it is tempting to eschew investing for any duration. With the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, it is easy to see why avoiding fixed-income investments has not been a successful strategy over the past few years. Market distortions in play from current monetary and fiscal policy make it extremely difficult to determine the perfect time to invest. Staying true to a benchmark will reduce the urge to time the market. 18

19 CONCLUSIONS 1. Safety Do your research, go beyond the ratings, look at market signals for assistance. 2. Liquidity Know your cash flow, monitor your investment ladder, periodically mark your portfolio to market. 3. Yield Establish a benchmark, periodically evaluate appropriateness, focus on the long-run. 19

20 PUBLIC TRUST ADVISORS ~ DISCLOSURE This presentation is for informational purposes only. All information is assumed to be correct but the accuracy has not been confirmed and therefore is not guaranteed to be correct. Information is obtained from third party sources that may or may not be verified. The information presented should not be used in making any investment decisions. The presentation is not a recommendation to buy, sell, implement or change any securities or investment strategy, function or process. Any financial and/or investment decision should be made only after considerable research, consideration and involvement with an experienced professional engaged for the specific purpose. All comments and discussion presented are purely based on opinion and assumptions, not fact, and these assumptions may or may not be correct based on foreseen and unforeseen events. All calculations and results presented and are for discussion purposes only and should not be used for making and calculations and/or decisions. Of course past performance is not an indication of future performance. 20