Spring Manufacturers Institute Charlotte, NC October 20-21 2015 STEEL: CHAOS IN THE INDUSTRY Differentiating between fundamental and cyclical, and what it means for your 2016 budget John Anton, Director, Steel Analytics IHS Pricing and Purchasing Service +1 202 481 9231 john.anton@ihs.com
STEEL: The Long View Steel has fundamentally re-set Fundamentally, steel will have excess capacity for the next five years More likely for the next decade or longer Prices will not be able to sustain sizeable increases There will be cyclical spikes, but they will collapse After a decade of sellers market, look forward to a long period of buyers market Your points of comparison are 2002 thru 2004, not 2005 through 2014 2
STEEL OVERVIEW: Overproduction keeps prices down Globally, steel is a buyers market Ample to surplus supply Short lead times Low prices EU and NAFTA imports restrict ability to raise prices Anti-dumping and CVD cases in EU, NAFTA, India, and South America help stop the declines, but will not be able to generate much increase Prices creep up in 2016 2016 prices will be far lower than 2014 levels If your last contract negotiation was 2014, you are due for some large price cuts 3
The first and most important fundamental change: iron ore For decades until 2004 iron ore was very stable between $10 and $20/dry metric ton unit (dmtu) As China began to increase steel production, it placed pressure on ore supply Literally, mines were supply constrained. Prices started rising toward $60 by 2007 The price shot above $130 and stayed there or higher for almost a decade Miners invested. A lot. Old mines had a cost of production of $120 or higher Steel Outlook / October 2015 New mines have a cost of production of $18 or lower, CIF cost of $30 or lower 4
Ore prices are high, but sinking toward historical norm Nominal (USD/dmtu) 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Real (1950 dollars/dmtu) 25 20 15 10 5 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Source: IHS 2015 IHS 5
Fundamental factor 2 the era of rising production is over Global steel production effectively doubled between 1999 and 2014 Almost all of this came from China China now has too many mills, and has already stopped increasing its steel production Other countries talk of wanting to expand their steel industry. BAD IDEA! If India does add capacity, some will be a white elephant, and some will displace Europe, Japan, North America, etc There is no room for more output. Rising global demand does not require rising output As long as output exceeds (rust + landfill), global capital stock increases Steel Outlook / October 2015 6
Global steel production has peaked Millions of metric tons of finished steel production, annual rate 2250 2000 1750 1500 1250 1000 750 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Source: WorldSteel.org 2015 IHS 7
Pulling it together The five year outlook (or more) Iron ore can be delivered to port in Australia and Brazil at $30/dmtu, will fall to $25 or less. Delivered prices likely vary between $45 and $60 One third of recent norms Steel furnace capacity utilization is only about 70%, and would be lower if China was not over-producing. A healthy rate is 85% Any price increase will quickly lead to the restart of idle capacity Prices would drop back Buyers will be in control for the mid term, and possibly the long term This is the norm for the steel industry 8
Real ferrous prices in the United States are below peak WPIP101, All ferrous industries, rebased to 1926m1, and deflated by the Consumer Price Index 2.2 2 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 1926 1933 1940 1947 1954 1961 1968 1975 1982 1989 1996 2003 2010 Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics 2015 IHS 9
The short term What about your 2016 and 2017 budgets? 10
Over-riding themes through 2017 Chinese prices are too low, even with the fall in input costs. They cannot stay here forever, but I will not try to call the timing Anti-dumping or tariffs impact most carbon steel products in Europe, Canada, the United States, India, South America, and some others Demand is so weak globally (compared to production) that protectionism can only stop the declines. It cannot lead to a real price recovery That said, you should expect mills to try and boost prices in the first quarter as AD actions are implemented. The hikes should quickly fail 11
Anti-dumping Europe has been the leader. Normally it is the United States China is the main target. Also Turkey, Korea, Japan, others. Sheet, rebar, wire rod, plate, stainless, hollow structural sections (HSS) Expect leakage, as steel flows from unaffected countries Exporters who are hit will have more excess supply and weaker pricing. Cut production or drown. Importers will face less damage from pricing, more from having to rewrite supply chains. 12
Ore and scrap input costs are way down If you have a surcharge, you should see price cuts US dollars per metric ton 180 540 150 450 120 360 90 270 60 180 30 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Iron ore (Left axis, $/dmtu; Historical source Platts/TSI) Scrap, #1 bushel (Right axis, $/long ton; Historical source AMM) 90 Historical Source: Ore - Platts/TSI; Scrap AMM Forecast is from IHS 2015 IHS 13
Price levels US dollars per short ton 2014 2015 2016 2017 Hot rolled carbon sheet ann avg 662 469 463 479 % change annual avg 4.2-29.2-1.2 3.5 HRCS third quarter 674 458 469 481 % change Q3-Q3 y-o-y 3.5-32.1 2.2 2.8 Rebar 656 580 530 551 % change annual avg 0.1-11.6-8.7 4.1 Rebar third quarter 652 577 532 555 % change Q3-Q3 y-o-y 1.1-11.5-7.7 4.3 Stainless 304 2762 2317 2307 2805 % change annual avg 14.1-16.1-0.4 15.5 Stainless third quarter 3017 2097 2317 2630 % change Q3-Q3 y-o-y 26.2-30.5 10.5 13.6 Source: IHS 2015 IHS 14
Rebar is falling, and there are reports of distressed Chinese prices of $265/mt ($242/st) US dollars per metric ton 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 United States Europe China Historical Source: Platts/SBB Forecast is from IHS 2015 IHS 15
Merchant bar may be near the bottom of its long slide US dollars per metric ton 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 United States Europe Historical Source: Platts/SBB Forecast is from IHS 2015 IHS 16
Stainless will rise with a recovery in nickel US dollars per metric ton 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 United States Europe China Historical Source: Platts/SBB Forecast is from IHS 2015 IHS 17
Hot rolled sheet should be near bottom US dollars per metric ton 1000 875 750 625 500 375 250 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 United States Europe China Historical Source: Platts/SBB Forecast is from IHS 2015 IHS 18
Risks El Nino lowers the risk of Australian weather disruption to iron ore and coal December 2015 thru March/April 2016 Mills push for extreme price increases as anti-dumping is implemented January/February 2016 Anti-dumping proves a weak aid. US prices for HRCS fall to $400- $420/metric ton ($360-$380/s.t.) March/July 2016 Ore miners go for each other s jugular. Price falls to $40 or even to $30 Any time in 2016 Ore miners form a quasi-cartel. Price rises to $80 or even $100 Any time in 2016 19
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