DBDH ANNUAL MEETING 27TH NOV 2014 POSSIBILITIES OF DH SECTOR INVESTMENTS IN POLAND WHAT, WHY, HOW AND WHERE
RAMBOLL POLSKA SP. Z O.O. SEATED IN WARSAW In operation on Polish market since 1990 Previous name Elsamprojekt, owned by Elsam/DONG Energy Acquired by Ramboll in 2011 Active on the market of energy investments as Owners Engineer Active on the DH market www.ramboll.pl www.ramboll.com/energy 2
POSSIBILITIES OF DH SECTOR INVESTMENTS IN POLAND WHAT, WHY, HOW AND WHERE Investments in thermal energy sector amounts to be spent till 2020/2023 Most likely types of projects new CHPs, HOBs, refurbishments of Plants and DH networks Supporting Regime in DH and influence on the fuel choice, if any How Danish DH sector could do business types of clients Map of expected DH investments 3
INVESTMENTS IN THERMAL ENERGY SECTOR AMOUNTS TO BE SPENT TILL 2020/2023 Energy sector to invest 129 billion PLN till 2020 including generation and distribution, out of this 18 billion PLN for cogeneration PGE to construct 187MWe in gas cogeneration (+1100MW in the pipeline) around 4.3 billion to be spent ENEA to construct 300MWe and 1500MWt in cogeneration around 3.2 billion including DH networks Tauron to construct 120MWe in coal cogeneration plus 630MWe in gas cogeneration 1.8 billion to be spent Energa to spent 1.1 billion for cogeneration plants EDF to spent 1.9 billion for modernization of cogeneration plants 4
INVESTMENTS IN THERMAL ENERGY SECTOR AMOUNTS TO BE SPENT TILL 2020/2023 PGNiG Termika to construct gas fired 670MWe 1.7 billion to be spent PKN Orlen to construct gas fired 900MWe 2.3 billion to be spent JSW to construct 2 CHPs with 151MWe 0.7 billion to be spent, Remaining players (HOB,DH) 1 billion to be spent, most of them by Veolia (former Dalkia) There is a potential of 5000MWe if we refurbish existing HOB assets into cogeneration plants 5
MOST LIKELY TYPES OF PROJECTS NEW CHPS, HOBS, REFURBISHMENTS OF PLANTS AND DH NETWORKS Optimization of existing assets Construction of new CHP/HOB Construction of heat transmission/distribution network Pro-environmental projects to reduce emissions In particular, we try to analyse at least the following types of projects: Coal fired CHP Biomass CHP wood chips, pellets, straw in bales WTE fuelled with municipal wastes/ RDF Gas engines CCGT (combined cycle) GT with water boiler Solar as supplementary solution Hybrid and mixed systems (biomass + gas) Heat transmission for long distance (connection of heat receivers to existing CHP) Heat accumulator Smart City idea - tbc 6
SMART CITY Biogas produced in sewage treatment plant, Introduction of biogas into gas network, Multifuel CHP local biomass and biogas, Heat accumulation, District heating and cooling, Prosument microgeneration Power accumulation in electric cars Heat pumps in cooperation with solar and biomass boiler 7
SUPPORTING REGIME IN DH AND INFLUENCE ON THE FUEL CHOICE, IF ANY Heat generation and distribution regulated by URE with negotiated return on investments Red certificates to support coal fired cogeneration Red certificates amounts to 9PLN/MWh and this supporting scheme will continue only till 2018 Yellow certificates to support gas fired cogeneration Yellow certificates amounts to 110PLN/MWh and many CCGT are not in operation, this supporting scheme will continue till 2018 Green certificates to support biogas based cogeneration Green certificates to support biomass cogeneration Green certificates to support biogas amounts to 170PLN/MWh of electricity and there are lots of problems Green certificates system will be changed into auction type feed-in tariff system since 2016 Prioritised renewable heat offtake however 8
SUPPORTING REGIME IN DH AND INFLUENCE ON THE FUEL CHOICE In the Ministry of Economy there is a Road Map of Heat and Cooling in Poland being completed and after that after that 1. They will prepare new cogeneration supporting system in 2015 2. There is a draft of new Decree being prepared in the Ministry of Economy how to support cogeneration investments from EU funds 2014-2021 3. There are EU funds approved for Poland to be allocated for high efficiency cogeneration, the exact amounts to be announced in 2015 9
HOW DANISH DH SECTOR COULD DO BUSINESS TYPES OF CLIENTS Traditional Scandinavian investment model Traditional Polish investment model Supplies of goods and services to the Investors Public Procurement Law Cooperation with EPC contractors companies to follow in Poland: Alstom GE Siemens Mitsubishi Hitachi but also Control Process Volund Energoinstal BWSC Energomontaz Zachod Aalborg Engineering Erbud Metso/Valmont Polimex Mostostal Andritz, Mostostal Warszawa Bilfinger Mostostal Zabrze Weiss/Envikraft Rafako DP Cleantech Budimex Logstor 10
MAP OF EXPECTED DH INVESTMENTS COAL 1. Bytom Fortum new coal fired boiler 2015 2. Bielsko-Biala Tauron new coal fired boiler 2016 - GAS 1. Plock PKN Orlen new CCGT 2015-2. Konin ZE PAK new CCGT 2015-3. Warszawa PGNiG Termika new CCGT 2016-4. Poznan Dalkia new CCGT? 2015-5. Warszawa Dalkia new CCGT? 2015-6. Elblag new gas engines CHP, 2016 7. Lagisza Tauron new CCGT 2015-8. Pruszkow PGNiG Termika new gas engines CHP? 2016 9. Bydgoszcz PGE CHP new CCGT? 2016 10. Torun - EDF new CCGT? 2016 11
MAP OF EXPECTED DH INVESTMENTS BIOMASS 1. Szczecin PGE Pomorzany CHP, new biomass boiler 2015 2. Lublin Tergopower new biomass CHP 2015-3. Bilgoraj Tergopower new biomass CHP 2016 - WTE 1. Gdansk new WTE, 2015 2. Olsztyn MPEC (DH company) new WTE 2015-3. Warszawa new WTE 2016-4. Lodz new WTE 2016 5. Katowice new WTE 2016-6. Tarnow new WTE 2017 - Others 1. Koszalin MEC (DH company), refurbishment of boilers and new networks 2. Warszawa PGNiG Termika new FGD/deNOx 2015-3. Bialystok Enea MPEC new FGD/deNOx, networks, boiler refurbishment 2015 4. Bedzin Tauron new DH networks 2016-5. Legnica WPEC new CHP 2017-12
MAP OF EXPECTED DH INVESTMENTS Others Smart City cases 1. Warsaw Bio gas petrol stations at the Sewage Water Treatment Plant 2016-2. Warsaw district cooling 2017-3. Czestochowa district cooling 2016-13
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION www.ramboll.pl www.ramboll.com/energy Krzysztof Jaworski Managing Director Ramboll Polska krzj@ramboll.com 14