Nivesh Commodity 24 th June, 2016 Daily Change & Technical levels Base Metal Inventory Scrip Inventory Change Copper 194375 3675 Nickel 383502 2064 Lead 185650 25 Zinc 413675 18600 Alumni 2421500 6450 Gold Lease Rates 1 m 0.0884% +0.0250 2 m 0.1100% +0.0175 3 m 0.1381% +0.0150 6 m 0.2097% +0.0025 1 y 0.4007% +0.0050 Scrip Close % Change R1 R2 PIVOT S1 S2 GOLD 29914 0.62 30133 30331 29993 29795 29655 SILVER 41190 0.07 41530 41840 41221 40911 40602 CRUDE 3355 2.09 3392 3420 3346 3318 3272 NG 182.10 0.22 184.9 187.6 181 177.9 173.6 COPPER 321.40 1.21 323.6 325.9 320 317.8 314.3 NICKEL 618.50 0.08 620.9 623.2 618 615.7 612.8 LEAD 116.45 0.82 117.0 117.5 116 115.6 114.6 ZINC 137.25 0.40 138.2 139.1 137 136.2 135.1 ALUMINIUM 110 0.41 110.4 110.7 110 109.5 109.0 Comex Division Bullions (Spot) Last close % change Gold $1256.30 0.75 Silver $17.269 0.29 * According to 23 JUN, 2016. Ankit Kapoor Sr. Research Analyst Mobile: +91 7389934302 Tel: +91 0731 4262702 ankit.kapoor@indianivesh.in 1
BULLION Gold ticks down, amid reports of deadlocked vote in Brexit referendum Gold futures inched down amid a broadly weaker dollar, as global equities rose sharply on Thursday, hours before polls closed in the U.K. in the historic Brexit referendum. As Brexit fears have abated over the last week, Gold has slid more than 1.5% from 22 month highs hit last Thursday. Despite the mild declines, the precious metal has still surged more than 19% since the start of the year and is on pace for its strongest first half in more than a decade. As polls in Britain on the U.K.'s potential departure from the European Union remained virtually deadlocked, investors braced for a long, dramatic night before the official results are released at some point on Friday morning. Complicating matters, torrential downpours in London threatened turnout possibly limiting volume among key undecided voters. Regardless, officials from G7 nations have devised comprehensive contingency plans to calm markets on Friday in the event that the "Leave" campaign prevails. A Leave vote is widely regarded as bullish for gold, as investors pile into the safe haven asset due to increased fears that a British departure from the European bloc could trigger a recession throughout the euro zone. Notably, it will take the U.K. a minimum of two years to leave the EU if the Leave campaign prevails. In the euro area, the FTSE 100 jumped 1.23% to 6,338.10, while the broader Stoxx Euro 600 Index surged 1.47% to 346.34. The strong performance spilled over onto Wall Street, where the major indices were up sharply in U.S. afternoon trading. At 1:00 p.m. EST, the Dow Jones Industrial Average stood at 17,939.10, up 158 points on the session. Meanwhile, GBP/USD traded at 1.4813 (up 0.71%), lingering near seven month highs. Earlier this week, billionaire investor George Soros warned that the Pound could plummet as much as 20% if the Stay vote is defeated. The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, fell more than 0.40% to an intraday low of 93.03, falling to fresh one month lows. The index is down by more than 5% since early December. Gold and silver settled on MCX division at 29914 and 41190 respectively. Today, Gold has support at 29850 and resistance at 30280 30450 while Silver has support at 40800 and resistance at 41600. Traders can trade in a range with strict stop loss and wait for confirmation 2
ENERGY Oil rallies amid optimism over Brexit vote Oil prices rallied in North American trade on Thursday, amid indications that Britain would vote to remain in the European Union in a highly anticipated referendum. The vote on a potential Brexit was set to take place between 6:00GMT, or 7:00AM London time, and 21:00GMT, or 10:00PM in London, with results expected early Friday morning. Recent polls indicated that remain campaign was in the lead, spurring "risk on" sentiment across the globe. On Wednesday, London traded Brent futures declined 74 cents, or 1.46%, as investors counted down to the upcoming British vote to decide whether to remain in the European Union. Elsewhere, crude oil for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 74 cents, or 1.51%, to trade at $49.87 a barrel. A day earlier, New York traded oil prices shed 72 cents, or 1.44%, after data showed that oil supplies in the U.S. fell much less than expected last week. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that crude oil inventories declined by 0.9 million barrels last week to 530.6 million. Market analysts' expected a crude stock decline of 1.7 million barrels. U.S. crude futures are up nearly 85% since falling to 13 year lows at $26.05 on February 11 as a decline in U.S. shale production boosted sentiment. However, with prices now at levels that make drilling economical for some firms, the rig count might start rising soon and the decline in U.S. production may slow. According to oilfield services provider Baker Hughes, the number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. increased by nine last week to 337, the third straight weekly rise. The renewed gain in U.S. drilling activity fueled speculation that domestic production could be on the verge of rebounding in the weeks ahead, underlining worries over a supply glut. Meanwhile, Brent's premium to the WTI crude contract stood at 86 cents a barrel, compared to a gap of 75 cents by close of trade on Wednesday. Crude oil settled at 3355 Crude oil has support at 3280 and resistance at 3350 3430. Close below 3280 will see more downside panic till 3220 3180 and then to 3100 mark. On rise sell it with stop loss above 3430 on closing basis 3
BASE METAL Copper jumps to 7 wk high Thu on demand hope, supply worries Copper jumped to near seven week high in afternoon session Thursday on hope of improvement in demand from United States and on lower supply of metals. Prices of base metals were up on hope of improvement in demand from US, the world's second biggest metal consumer, after the data published by the National Association of Realtors on Wednesday showed US' existing home sales jumped to their highest level in over nine years in the month of May, easing US economic growth worries. US existing home sales jumped by 1.8% to an annual rate of 5.53 million in May compared to a downwardly revised 5.43 million in April, data showed. Prices of industrial metals were also supported by improvement in demand from China following higher imports data also supported base metals. China's copper imports jumped by 15.9% to 319,255 tons in May while nickel imports were up 60% at 37,559 tons, data showed on Tuesday. China is the world's largest consumer of copper accounting for about 40% of total global demand and major consumer of other industrial metals. Better than expected manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) from Europe, the world's third largest metal consumer, also supported base metals. Europe Markit manufacturing PMI in June grew 52.6 compared to 51.5 growth a month ago, data showed. Copper prices were also supported by supply worries after International Copper Study Group (ICSG) data showed that world refined copper market showed a 40,000 tons deficit in March, compared with a 29,000 tons surplus in February. Copper for June delivery jumped 0.43% to Rs 318.90 per kilogram on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX). However, prices of aluminium and lead were flat in afternoon session Thursday as investors remained cautious after the Brexit vote begins. Britain's vote on its membership in 28 member European Union has begun today. Even though markets remain optimistic that Britain will continue to be part of EU; opinion polls showed the vote is finely balanced between Leave and Remain camps. Copper Settled in MCX division at 321.40 Today, Copper has support at 315 and resistance at 326. Traders can trade in a range with strict stop loss and wait for confirmation 4
AGRI COMMODITY Soybean snaps 2 dy gain Thu on weak soymeal demand, supply hope Soybean snapped two day gain at the closing of trades Thursday on weak demand for Indian soymeal in export market and on hope of higher supply in domestic market following reports of improved rains. Prices of the yellow bean were under pressure as progress of rain in India spurted hope of higher production in major producing areas. The southwest monsoon is progressing well and almost covered over 70% area of the country with some of Gujarat getting rains on Wednesday, a senior official India Met Department (IMD). On Wednesday many parts of north India got pre monsoon rains as well as the monsoon also hit the parched lands of Gujarat. For the first time this season, on Wednesday the country received 25% above normal rains which brought down the overall deficiency 18% until June 21, IMD data showed. IMD has predicted above normal 2016 monsoon and rains may be 106% of LPA with model error of plus/minus 4%. Meanwhile, it is anticipated that acreage under soybean may rise due to higher premium against corn last month since 2005. Further weighing on the bean prices is robust weekly crop progress from United States, the world's biggest bean producers, indicating oversupply woes. According to the weekly crop progress report, till June 19 around 96% soybean planting is completed compared to 89% in the same period a year ago, USDA data showed. Prices of bean were under pressure after Indian soymeal after India's soybean oilmeal exports slumped 92.77% to 1,015 tons in June compared to 14,046 tons for the corresponding period a year earlier, data released from Solvent Extractors Association of India (SEA) showed. India freight on board (FOB) soymeal price was at $497 per ton in May compared to $592 per ton for the same period year ago. US soymeal prices traded at $440 per ton as of June 20. Spot soybean prices were down 0.13% to Rs 3,910 per 100 kilograms on the NCDEX. Soy oil snapped four day gain at the closing of trades Thursday on profit booking after prices jumped to over one week high on Wednesday. On Wednesday, soy oill for July delivery rose 0.15% to Rs 644.95 per 10 kilogram on the NCDEX, its highest since June 8. Soy oil for June delivery dropped 0.19% to Rs 643.70 per 10 kilogram on the NCDEX. RM seed extended fall for a second straight trading session Thursday on weak demand after rapeseed meal exports from India slipped 91.21% to 3,090 tons in May compared to 35,188 tons a month ago, data released from Solvent Extractors Association of India (SEA) showed. Soybean settled on NCDEX division at 3812. Soybean has support at 3800 and resistance at 3880 3930. Traders can trade in a range with strict stop loss and wait for confirmation 5
AGRI DAILY CHANGE AND TECHNICAL LEVELS Scrip Close % Change S1 S2 PIVOT R1 R2 Soybean 3812 0.91 3788 3764 3818 3842 3872 Soyaref 642.55 0.33 640 637 643 646 649 Rmseed 4709 0.80 4682 4658 4720 4744 4782 Jeera 17670 0.28 17435 17210 17635 17860 18060 Turmeric 8192 0.81 8091 8005 8175 8261 8345 Dhaniya 7251 0.17 7200 7151 7260 7309 7369 Cocudakl 2490 0.73 2470 2446 2483 2507 2520 Mentha oil 836.60 0.25 832.7 827.9 838 842.6 847.7 CPO 507.50 0.51 504.7 501.9 507 510.0 512.5 News Source: Investing.com and News Wire IndiaNivesh Commodities Private Limited 601 & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai 400 007. Tel: (022) 66188800 / Fax: (022) 66188899 e mail: ankit.kapoor@indianivesh.in Website: www.indianivesh.in Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Commodities Private Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any commodity. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the commodity and currencies mentioned in the report. To unsubscribe please send a mail to ankit.kapoor@indianivesh.in 6