Classifying South Korea as a Developed Market

WHITE PAPER REPORT FTSE PUBLICATIONS Classifying South Korea as a Developed Market JANUARY 2013 Christopher Woods Managing Director, Governance & Policy, FTSE The success of FTSE s market indices is founded on a combination of expert research and analysis, clear methodology, and its unique ability to reflect the perceptions and real-world experience of its clients and investors worldwide. FTSE s attention to the views of market practitioners was an important factor in the 2009 decision by its external governing committees to reclassify South Korea as a Developed Market. It remains a key reason for maintaining this classification today. FTSE believes that to include South Korea in an Emerging Market index creates distortions that fail to reflect the intentions of investors. 1

Investors have long divided the world into several categories of markets to help simplify their investment decisions. One of the fundamental divisions has traditionally been between Developed Markets (DM) and Emerging Markets (EM). For a long time, the classification of countries was generally based on a few overarching metrics, such as Gross Domestic Product or Gross National Income per capita, and the individual judgment of the investor. With the advent of indexing, however, the classification process has become more systematized and rationalized. In order to introduce a greater degree of objectivity into the classification process, index providers have created more precise and uniform definitions by which to categorize economies. These new definitions generally include a wider range of technical considerations such as market access, market quality, liquidity and so forth, into their country classification methodologies. While this has certainly brought more sophistication to classification decisions, it has not created universal agreement. Different indexers have developed different methodologies by which to classify certain countries. Currently, the classification of South Korea is the focus of considerable debate. In 2009, FTSE reclassified South Korea as a Developed Market. Some competitors agree with this classification, but others notably MSCI continue to classify it as an Emerging Market. The difference in classification can make a significant difference to the behavior of the relevant indices. For instance, after China, South Korea is the second-largest component of the MSCI Emerging Market index, with a weighting of 15%, giving the index a significantly different character from FTSE s Emerging Markets index where South Korea is not present. To better understand these differences, it is worth looking in some detail at FTSE s methodology for classifying countries. The core of the FTSE process is a governance structure consisting of specialized external committees of market professionals and practitioners. FTSE s independent committees benefit from the experience and expertise of a wide range of market professionals, including members from the largest asset owners and institutional investors from around the world, issuers and users of traded products as well as representatives from pension funds, trustees and consultants. This structure seeks to ensure that FTSE s indices reflect the actual experience of the practitioners who know the markets best. FTSE s indices reflect the actual experience of the practitioners who know the markets best. 2

It s also notable that FTSE was the first major index provider to move to a formal process for classifying countries. In 2004, FTSE s external oversight committee refined its process to bring more objectivity and precision to the classification process, introducing a set of principles by which to evaluate how developed a particular market had become. These included: Quality of market (regulation, custody and settlement procedures, etc) Materiality (was the market of a material size to warrant inclusion) Liquidity Consistency and predictability (a predictable pathway for classification changes, including a Watch List of countries whose status might change) Stability (a country s change in status would only reflect permanent changes in market status and global acceptance) Market access (no discrimination against non-domestic investors) FTSE established a new Country Classification Committee to assess the information and adopted a transparent Quality of Markets matrix to objectively judge and compare markets and to provide consistency and add predictability to the classification change process. In addition, FTSE adopted a Watch List for countries potentially approaching re-classification as well as a policy of engagement with the markets in such countries, to help them understand the steps they would have to take to make themselves eligible for promotion. On these bases, the Country Classification Committee makes recommendations to FTSE s Policy Group regarding country classification changes, and the FTSE Policy Group makes the final decision on classifications. In 2009, employing this governance structure, FTSE s Policy Group, comprised of index experts and users drawn from senior levels of practitioner firms, promoted South Korea from Emerging to Developed status. The decision reflected the size and sophistication of the South Korean market at the time, and what the Policy Group believed to be the general market perception that it was now a Developed Market. South Korea: is the 15th largest economy measured by GDP, industrial output and services is the 12th largest economy in terms of purchasing power parity is the 7th largest exporter and 10th largest importer in the world is the world s 13th largest stock market and the 3rd largest in the Pacific Rim (after Japan and Australia) is home to some of the world s biggest and most successful corporations, such as Samsung and Hyundai Motors, and it is the world s 4th largest car producer and worlds largest shipbuilder has a thriving high-tech industry and a high-tech population, being the first country to achieve more than 50% internet broadband adoption among the population and is the most wired country on the planet in terms of internet use and speed is a member of the OECD, and the World Bank classifies South Korea as a high-income developed country with a developed market The strength and size of its economy rank it among the G-20 major economies. Source: The World Bank, The Economist The manifest economic strength of South Korea is a key consideration to asset owners and investors in forming their perceptions. 3

The FTSE Policy Group recognized at the time that the South Korea market had some trading and implementation limitations. For example, in the FTSE Quality of Markets evaluation process, while South Korea achieved a Pass rating on 18 of the 21 criteria, on three criteria it remained Restricted : the convertibility of the currency (i.e., the won) outside domestic banking hours; difficulties with free-delivery transfers of stock, particularly in pooled funds; and a facility for foreigners to trade among themselves in securities that have reached a foreign-ownership limit. Nevertheless, in line with the expectations of international market professionals, the FTSE Policy Group took the view that these outstanding issues would be addressed as the South Korean market evolved and foreign participation increased. In the event, the financial crisis intervened to make many governments around the world more cautious about opening their markets to foreign investors. Although this has delayed the expected final improvements in South Korea s markets, the FTSE Policy Group continues to believe South Korea is a Developed Market. This is because, while the use of detailed technical market criteria to assess the development of markets has helped to give additional objectivity to the creation of indices, such criteria are not the only considerations at FTSE. Unlike some other indexers, FTSE does not regard country classification as merely an exercise in box-ticking. Broader considerations of a country s overall standing in the global economy, and the perceptions of investors, are also essential to the final decision. South Korean Gross National Income Per Capita South Korean GNI growth closely tracks other High Income/ Developed Markets. The manifest economic strength of South Korea is a key consideration to asset owners and investors in forming their opinion of how the country should be classified, and FTSE believes that the majority of such users no longer classify the country alongside the likes of China, India and Brazil. This perception, together with the objective economic and market factors, informs the decision of FTSE s market practitioner-based governance structure to classify South Korea as a Developed Market. When investors think of investing in Emerging Markets, FTSE believes it is developing countries they mean to target. An Emerging Market index that includes an economy as advanced as South Korea would simply create, in FTSE s view, unwanted distortions that fail to serve investors purposes. It is no surprise, therefore, that the classification of South Korea as a Developed Market is so widely accepted in the investment universe. Other leading financial indexing and financial data companies also take this view for example, S&P classifies South Korea as a Developed Market. Jim O Neill, the Goldman Sachs analyst who coined the term BRICs, was recently quoted as saying that regarding South Korea as an emerging market is absolutely ridiculous. Among investors, market leaders such as Fidelity and Charles Schwab Investment Management use FTSE s Emerging Market Index as the benchmark for their emerging market index funds and ETFs, as will Vanguard when it completes its transition to FTSE s benchmarks later this year. The world s largest emerging bond ETF, the JP Morgan US Dollar Emerging Markets Bond Fund, issued by ishares, does not include South Korea debt. Most broad-based emerging market equity ETFs in the US (currently 12 out of 19 funds) do not have exposure to South Korea. 45000 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 The classification of countries is, of course, a dynamic and constantly evolving process dependent on economic facts, market practice and the experience of investors. In 2008, for example, FTSE promoted Israel to Developed status in line with its objective measures and general client perception that the country was ready for an upgrade. Other major index providers followed suit soon after, in 2010. As the economies and markets of other countries evolve and meet the criteria for promotion, they too will be reclassified as Developed. High income countries South Korea All countries Source: World Bank However, our established indexing methodology and governance process lead us to two firm conclusions: that although South Korea has yet to fully satisfy a small minority of detailed criteria, in all essential respects it meets the definitions and standards of a developed market; and that most investors and asset owners already view the country that way. This, in our view, is ample justification to classify South Korea as Developed. 4

Country Classification Developed Australia Austria Belgium/ Luxembourg Canada Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Hong Kong Ireland Israel Italy Japan Netherlands New Zealand Norway Portugal Singapore South Korea Spain Sweden Switzerland UK USA Advanced Emerging Brazil Czech Republic Hungary Malaysia Mexico Poland South Africa Thailand Taiwan Turkey Secondary Emerging Chile China Colombia Egypt India Indonesia Morocco Pakistan Peru Philippines Russia UAE Frontier Argentina Bahrain Bangladesh Botswana Bulgaria Côte d Ivoire Croatia Cyprus Estonia Ghana Jordan Kenya Lithuania Macedonia Malta Mauritius Nigeria Oman Qatar Romania Serbia Slovakia Slovenia Sri Lanka Tunisia Vietnam For further information, please contact Beijing +86 (10) 8587 7722 Dubai +971 4 319 9901 Hong Kong +852 2164 3333 London +44 (0) 20 7866 1810 Milan +39 02 3604 6953 Mumbai +91 22 6649 4180 New York +1 888 747 FTSE (3873) Paris +33 (0)1 53 76 82 89 San Francisco +1 888 747 FTSE (3873) Sydney +61 (2) 9293 2864 Tokyo +81 (3) 3581 2811 The white paper is meant for educational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any type. This report contains forward-looking statements. These are based upon a number of assumptions concerning future conditions that ultimately may prove to be inaccurate. Such forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties and may be affected by various factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made and FTSE assumes no duty to and does not undertake to update forward-looking statements. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly. This publication is produced by FTSE International Limited ( FTSE ). 2012 FTSE. All rights reserved. FTSE is a trademark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE under licence. All-World is a trademark of FTSE. The FTSE All-World Index Series (including sub series) is calculated by FTSE and all rights in and to them are vested in FTSE and/or its licensors. Efforts have been made to ensure that information given is accurate, but no responsibility or liability can be accepted by FTSE for errors or omissions or for any losses arising from the use of this information. All information has been provided for information purposes only and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information is fit for purpose, accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Information and opinions contained in the publication are published for the assistance of recipients, but are not to be relied upon as authoritative or taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by any recipient, and are subject to change without notice. Nothing in this publication should be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any financial instrument. No information in this publication may be used for the creation of any financial product, index or service whose income and/or capital value is linked to and/or derived from any information included in this publication, should you wish to create financial instruments based on FTSE data and/or indices you will need a licence to do so. 5