Quantitative investing in upcoming emerging markets

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1 WHITE PAPER July 14, 2014 For professional investors Quantitative investing in upcoming emerging markets Consequences of the recent upgrade of Qatar and UAE to emerging markets Wilma de Groot, CFA Weili Zhou, CFA Quantitative investing in upcoming emerging markets 1

2 Introduction In June 2014, MSCI upgraded two frontier emerging markets, Qatar and the United Arabic Emirates (UAE), to its Emerging Markets index. Consequently, these countries have become part of the eligible universe of our Core Quant Emerging Markets strategy. We will leverage on our pioneering stock selection research in frontier emerging markets and our experience with investing in these markets for our Active Quant Emerging Markets strategy. In this note we will first list the characteristics of these countries and frontier emerging markets in general. We will then show that well-known proven factors in developed and emerging markets, such as value and momentum, also work very well in frontier markets. We will conclude with the live track record of our frontier markets stock selection model since inception in Quantitative investing in upcoming emerging markets 2

3 Qatar & UAE: characteristics Traditional emerging markets have developed rapidly over the past decades, both economically and financially. A group of countries less developed than emerging markets with established stock exchanges has appeared on the radar screen of global investors. These new emerging markets are also known as frontier emerging markets or, in short, frontier markets. Frontier market countries are in general smaller and less liquid than emerging market countries. Exhibit 1 shows the investable market capitalization (in US dollars) and index weight per country in the MSCI Emerging and Frontier Markets indices as of June 2, We observe that UAE and Qatar have larger market capitalizations than almost all frontier markets and are even larger than some existing emerging markets countries, namely Peru, Czech Republic, Hungary and Egypt. UAE and Qatar combined have a weight of 1.1% in the MSCI Emerging Markets index and consist of around 20 stocks. Exhibit 1: Market capitalization and index weight per country Emerging 4, % Frontier % China % Kuwait % Korea % Nigeria % Taiwan % Pakistan % Brazil % Argentina % South Africa % Morroco % India % Kenya % Russia % Oman % Mexico % Kazakhstan % Malaysia % Vietnam % Indonesia % Slovenia % Thailand % Lebanon % Turkey % Romania % Poland % Bangladesh % Chile % Sri Lanka % Colombia % Croatia % Philippines % Bahrain % Greece % Mauritius % UAE % Jordan % Qatar % Tunisia % Peru % Estonia % Czech Republic % Serbia % Hungary % Ukraine % Egypt % Bulgaria % Source: MSCI. Figures based on indices from MSCI in billion USD at June 2, Lithuania % Quantitative investing in upcoming emerging markets 3

4 Performance characteristics Based on the cumulative returns in Exhibit 2, we observe that frontier markets have expierenced a strong bullish market similar in size to emerging markets, until the crisis in The loss during the crisis was also comparable to that in emerging markets. After the crisis, we observe different recovery paths, although both markets have shown an annualized return of around 9% since The correlation between frontier markets and emerging or developed markets has been between 50 and 55 percent over this sample period. For comparison, the correlation between emerging and developed markets has been around 85 percent over the same period. This makes frontier markets attractive from a diversification perspective. Exhibit 2: Cumulative total index returns 1 400% 300% 200% 100% 0% -100% MSCI World MSCI Emerging Markets MSCI Frontier Markets Source: Robeco, MSCI, S&P 1 Before the start of the MSCI Frontier Markets index in June 2002, we use the S&P Frontier BMI. Quantitative investing in upcoming emerging markets 4

5 Value and momentum premiums in frontier equity markets We launched our proprietary multi-factor stock selection model for frontier markets in After the construction of a high quality frontier markets database we found that proven factors in developed and emerging markets, such as value and momentum, also perform very well in frontier markets. As a spin-off of the pioneering research to quant strategies in frontier markets, Robeco has published these empirical findings in an international peer-reviewed academic journal. 2 We summarize the main results of this study in Exhibit 3. The table shows the returns and t-statistics of well-known value and momentum strategies. Each month, stocks are ranked on a particular variable and sorted into five quintiles. We then compute the equally weighted return of the top and bottom quintile in the next month. We observe strong and significant outperformances of both the value and momentum factors, irrespective of which measure we use. This confirms that these factors also work well in frontier equity markets. Exhibit 3: Historical returns value and momentum factors in frontier markets Factor Variable Top-bottom T-statistic Value Book/Market 1.66% 4.49 Earnings/Price 1.58% 4.52 Dividend/Price 0.78% 2.78 Momentum Return 3 months 1.69% 4.69 Return 9 months 1.19% 2.80 Return 12 months 0.87% 2.52 Source: Robeco. Total returns per month over the period January 1997 to November As we run the frontier markets stock selection model live since 2008, we show the cumulative outperformance of the top and bottom quintile based on the actually distributed model rankings in Exhibit 4 3. We observe that the model was capable of separating the winners from the losers. Since inception of the model, Robeco s fundamental emerging markets team has been using the output of the model in its investment process. In addition, UAE and Qatar have already been part of the eligible universe for our Active Quant Emerging Markets portfolios since January 2011 and July 2013 respectively. This strategy is allowed to invest in countries outside the MSCI Emerging Markets index, as long as the countries (are announced to) belong to either the FTSE Emerging Markets or the S&P/IFC Emerging Markets indices. We are confident that we can leverage on our trading experience in these markets for our Core Quant Emerging Markets strategy. 2 See De Groot, Pang, Swinkels, 2012, The cross-section of stock returns in frontier emerging markets, Journal of Empirical Finance, 19, The outperformances exclude transaction costs. Quantitative investing in upcoming emerging markets 5

6 Exhibit 4: Cumulative live performance of the top and bottom quintile of the frontier markets stock selection model since November % 75% 50% 25% 0% -25% -50% Nov-08 Nov-09 Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12 Nov-13 Outperformance top quintile Outperformance bottom quintile Source: Robeco Quantitative investing in upcoming emerging markets 6

7 Conclusion: leverage on our experience in Qatar and UAE In June 2014, two frontier markets, Qatar and UAE, were upgraded to the MSCI Emerging Markets index. As a result, these two countries became part of the eligible investment universe of our Core Quant Emerging Markets strategy. In pioneering research, Robeco found that proven factors in developed and emerging markets, such as valuation and momentum, also work very well in frontier markets. The strong live performance in these markets, including Qatar and UAE, further confirms that Robeco s proprietary stock selection model has been capable of differentiating the winners from the losers. Since inception in 2008, this model has been providing input to Robeco s fundamental emerging market strategies. We expect to leverage on our trading experience in Qatar and UAE for our Core quant strategy. Wilma de Groot, CFA Portfolio Manager Quantitative Equity Weili Zhou, CFA Quantitative Researcher Equities Important information This document has been carefully prepared by Robeco Institutional Asset Management B.V. (Robeco). It is intended to provide the reader with information on Robeco s specific capabilities, but does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell certain securities or investment products. Any investment is always subject to risk. Investment decisions should therefore only be based on the relevant prospectus and on thorough financial, fiscal and legal advice. The information contained in this document is solely intended for professional investors under the Dutch Act on the Financial Supervision (Wet financieel toezicht) or persons who are authorized to receive such information under any other applicable laws. The content of this document is based upon sources of information believed to be reliable, but no warranty or declaration, either explicit or implicit, is given as to their accuracy or completeness. This document is not intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. All copyrights, patents and other property in the information contained in this document are held by Robeco. No rights whatsoever are licensed or assigned or shall otherwise pass to persons accessing this information. The information contained in this publication is not intended for users from other countries, such as US citizens and residents, where the offering of foreign financial services is not permitted, or where Robeco's services are not available. Robeco Institutional Asset Management B.V. (trade register number: ) has a license of the Netherlands Authority for the Financial Markets in Amsterdam. Quantitative investing in upcoming emerging markets 7