Creative Construction Conference 2015 Educational simulation in construction project risk management Setting the stage Constanta-Nicoleta Bodea a), Augustin Purnus b) * a) Bucharest University of Economic Studies, 6, Piata Romana, Bucharest, 010374. Romania b) Technical University of Civil Engineering, 122-124, Lacul Tei Blvd., Bucharest, Romania Abstract The construction projects are considered having high risks due to the numerous stakeholders, long production duration and open production systems. Due to the prolonged financial crisis and the contraction of the construction market, the construction companies face with increasing constraints, such as: aggressive competition and a lack of investments in construction domain. In this context, the application of structured approaches related to the planning, scheduling and monitoring of their projects is even more important. Unfortunately, the construction industry has a poor reputation in risk management comparing with other domains, even if the risk management provides a solid basis for decision-making in projects and brings important benefits. The key project managers competences are mainly associated with the hard skills (the technical methods and tools application) and soft skills (leading the people) and they assure the project success. The project management competences development cannot be achieved in a classical educational setting, using the common methods for knowledge transfer. Instead, the project management should be taught in an active and experiential way, stimulating students to think creatively and to act properly as project managers. The paper presents the research mainly based on the experience gained in the master program of Project Management in Construction held in the Technical University of Civil Engineering Bucharest. The authors made a literature review in order to identify the main international project management competence standards and relevant educational experiences. Starting with this state of the art, the authors designed a simulation platform to be used in the delivery of project risk management courses. The objective of the educational simulation in construction project risk management is to contribute to the development of students competences in identification of risk events and uncertainties, prioritizing the risks, developing the risk response plan, simulating the risks and controlling and monitoring the risks in the project execution phase. The paper presents the main components of the simulation platform and some scenarios for educational simulation. Keywords: knowledge management; educational simulation; project risk management. 1. Introduction The construction projects are considered having high risks due to the numerous stakeholders, long production duration and open production systems. The increasing constraints which construction companies face due to the prolonged financial crisis and the contracting construction market impose even more the application of structured approaches related to the planning, scheduling and monitoring of their projects. Unfortunately, the construction industry has a poor reputation in risk management comparing with other domains, even if the risk management provides a solid basis for decision-making in projects and brings important benefits. * Corresponding author. Tel.: +4-021-22402000; fax: +4-021-22402000. E-mail address: purnus@utcb.ro 166
As the key project managers competences are mainly associated with hard skills and soft skills, project management cannot be taught in a classical educational setting, using the common methods for knowledge transfer. Instead, the project management should be taught in an active and experiential way, stimulating students to think creatively and to act properly as project managers. The paper is structured as follows: after the introductory part (section 1), section 2 presents the main characteristics of educating project managers for managing risks in construction projects. Section 3 describes the main methods and tools applied in teaching project risks management. Section 4 presents a proposed simulation platform for teaching risk management in construction projects, based on the experience gained in the master program of Project Management in Construction held in the Technical University of Civil Engineering Bucharest. Conclusions are drawn in section 5. 2. Educating project managers for managing risks in construction projects Project manager s education for managing risks means to develop their competences in identification of risk events and uncertainties, prioritizing the risks, developing the risk response plan, simulating the risks and controlling and monitoring the risks in the project execution phase. Based on an Internet survey on course syllabi on this subject, we identify several addressed topics [1]. These topics are grouped into several training modules (Table 1), which aim to develop the following knowledge and skills types: Subject-specific skills (related to project risk management processes and methods) Systemic skills (skills closing the gap between theory and practice) Generic (subject-independent) skills: interpersonal and instrumental skills According to this typology of skills, we can identify the following four categories of modules in the courses on the subject: Project risk management: Core modules (groups of topics which make up the backbone of the respective subject) Specialized modules (list of topics of which participants want to understand to a larger extent). A special specialized module is the transferable skills module (e.g. work experience / practice, projects, dissertation, business games, etc.) Modules on interpersonal skills, such as: module on communication skills. Support (instrumental) modules, such as: mathematics, statistics, Information Technology (list of topics which complement those included in the core modules); Table 1. Examples of modules for the subject: Project risk management Module type Module label Knowledge type Skill type Core module Basic project risk concepts Concepts and relationship among concepts Core module Advanced project risk concepts Concepts and relationship among concepts Core module Project risk processes Concepts and relationship among concepts Subject-specific skills Subject-specific skills Subject-specific skills Specialized module Identifying project risks Procedural knowledge Subject-specific skills Specialized module Assess the probability and impact of Procedural knowledge Subject-specific skills risks (qualitative and quantitative) Specialized module Select strategies and implement Procedural knowledge Subject-specific skills response plans to address risks Specialized module Evaluate and monitor risks. Procedural knowledge Systemic/ transferable skills Implement responses Module on Communication and involvement in Procedural knowledge Generic skills (interpersonal) interpersonal competences project risk management Support module management software tools Procedural knowledge Generic skills (instrumental) Support module Statistical analysis Procedural knowledge Generic skills (instrumental) 167
The literature points out the difficulties that affect the ability of practitioners to carry out a project cost or schedule risk quantitative analysis [2], [3]. This is why we can consider that the relevance of the generic (instrumental) skills is higher for the subject Project risk management than in any other project management subject. The learning outcomes are the statements of what the participants are expected to know, understand and be able to perform at the end of the course/module. The learning outcomes are defined in terms of competences which will be developed or enhanced by that course/module. Alignment to the international/national qualification frameworks and professional standards is an important constraint in defining learning outcomes. Table 2 presents some examples of learning outcomes for the support modules on Project risk management. Table 2. Examples of learning outcomes for the support modules in Project risk management At the end of the module, the participants will be able: Learning outcomes * to explain how Monte Carlo analysis, decision trees and sensitivity analysis can be used * to apply Monte Carlo analysis, decision trees and sensitivity analysis [using software package XX] * to apply Monte Carlo analysis, based on uni- and multivariate distribution simulation [using software package XX] * to calculate the expected monetary value [using software package XX] * to calculate quantifiable measures from probabilistic impact [using software package XX] * to calculate numerical values measuring expected risk probability and impact [using software package XX] * to apply and to interpret decision trees, with outcomes [using software package XX] * to analyze given numerical values measuring expected risk probability and impact * to analyze results obtained from Monte Carlo analysis * to appraise the results of qualitative and quantitative risk and opportunity assessment, to reveal possible errors, such as biased estimates, framing assumptions, simplistic approach or over-complexity added in the risk and opportunity assessment * to incorporate multiple criteria (related to cost, schedule, etc) into the risk quantitative assessment, applying multivariate probabilities distributions [using software package XX] * to design multi-criteria risk management * to develop innovative risk management model (embedding new perspectives, processes and concepts) and to practice meaningfulness communication in order to promote/sell it 3. Methods and tools for teaching project risk management The Biggs s constructive alignment principle [4] mentions that the learning outcomes determine what teaching and assessing methods have to be applied. The different complexity of cognitive skills [5] to be developed requires different teaching approaches. Table 3 shows recommended teaching and assessing methods for the teaching the subject Project risk management. Table 3. Recommended teaching and assessing methods for the subject Project risk management. Cognitive skills complexity (based on Bloom s taxonomy) Lower complexity (Remembering and understanding levels of the Bloom s taxonomy) Recommended teaching methods * Lecture * Visuals (audio, video) presentations * Examples/illustrations * Guest Speakers * Discussion groups * Presentations writing * Assessment reports Recommended assessment methods * Presentations * Participation in learning activities * Exam 168
Medium complexity (Applying and analyzing levels of the Bloom s taxonomy) High complexity (Evaluating and creating levels of the Bloom s taxonomy) * Practice demonstrations * Simulations * Role play * Discussion groups * Case studies * Assessment reports * Problems * Case studies * Critiques * Simulations * Practice * Problems * Case studies * Creative exercises * Brainstorming sessions * Simulations * Presentations * Participation in learning activities * Assignments * Exam * Project reports * Group work * Essays * Essays * Extended writing Simulation technologies are powerful educational tools that are becoming widely used due to their effectiveness in providing valuable learning experiences. Simulations performed during the training sessions are referred as educational simulations, in order to differentiate them from other simulation types, such as: experiments for decision support, entertainment and imitation [6]. Recommendations, guidelines and procedures were defined for a good educational simulations implementation. Heineke and Meile [7] consider that for simulations to be effective, they should provide an aha effect (the insight gained should be unknown before simulation take place); they should require students to generate date instead to receive date; they should be less stressful and use simple materials. The teacher must be very well prepared in running the simulation sessions. The teachers have to adopt a less intrusive role in student learning process, acting more as coaches, and not as instructors. Students typically support the games and simulations usage, rating these methods quite highly in their list of preferences. Students reported that the simulations developed their abilities to solve problems systematically, perform forecasts in uncertain environments and to measure objectives. Klassen and Willoughby [8] applied two assessment instruments: before and after questionnaires and playing the game twice, to see if student performance improved the second time. The simulation games provide good learning experiences because students make decisions, and after that, they make further decisions based on the first results. The students better remembered the educational material learned from games than a classical lecture. This might be the most important reason for using games in the classroom. Besides this, the students developed positive feelings toward the course, improving the chance of paying attention and learning even during other class sessions ([9], [10]). 4. Developing a Simulation Platform for Teaching Management in Construction Project The objective of the educational simulation in construction project risk management is to contribute to the development of students competences in identification of risk events and uncertainties, prioritizing the risks, developing the risk response plan, simulating the risks and controlling and monitoring the risks in the project execution phase. Graphical features of the tools used in the learning process allow the students to understand and to apply the concepts, tools and methodologies used in project risk management. The visual mechanism of project risk processes simulation is developed from the contractor perspective and consists of several modules including the main tools and best practices used in project risk management (Fig. 1). There are pre-defined several construction types (block of flats, office building, commercial building, roads, railways, bridges, water supply network, sewer system and water treatment plant). For each project, several type of information are provided: the project description, information regarding the construction company capabilities, its position on the market, project stakeholders, assumptions and constraints, the 169
type of contract (based on measured quantities or lump sum). The database includes for each project the activities description, their sequence in the activity network and the estimated cost. Initiation Planning Project selection Stakeholder Analysis Register Breakdown Structure Identification Qualitative Analysis Define Frequency, Probability, Impact Prioritization P-I Matrix Response Plan Define Strategy, Actions, Impact on Time and Cost Quantitative Analysis Generate Three Scenario Define Target Dates Simulation Execution Define Data Date Project Update Project Scheduling Monitoring and Controlling Additional Identification Prioritization P-I Matrix Define Strategy, Actions, Impact on Time and Cost Simulation Closing Trend Analysis Lessons Learned Fig. 1 Processes and Tools applied in Project Management Simulation Platform In the initiation phase, the students grouped in teams analyze the preliminary data in order to establish their strategy for project risk management. For the planning phase they estimate stakeholders expected benefits and loss, analyze the project Work Breakdown Structure, the activity sequence, their duration and cost in order to identify risk events. The risk register is filled by the students with risk events selected from a risk events database, according with the type of construction project. For each risk event, they will analyze and record the cause and effects. Based on their estimation of the frequency, probability and the impact on project duration and cost, the students will be able to prioritize the risks within the Probability-Impact matrix. The risk response plan is develop based on the strategies agreed by the students according with the risk type and their nature, estimating the effect of actions and impact on the project duration and cost. Using these estimations, the students develop three project scenarios. Defining the target dates for duration and cost, the quantitative analysis will be performed using either Three Scenario Method, or Monte Carlo Method. If the results are not acceptable, the students have to return to the risk identification phase and to refine their decisions. In the execution phase, the students define the project data date for update. They can select what risks occur or not, and based on their decision on the project progress they perform the project schedule for the three scenarios. Monitoring and controlling phase involve the identification of additional risk events, risk prioritization, risk response plan for the rest of the project and risk simulation. The trend of estimated probability and impact for each risk event in the qualitative analysis and the trend of probability to achieve the target dates in the quantitative analysis help the students to understand and to feel the consequence of their decisions on the project duration and cost. The simulation process continues with project update and monitoring and controlling phase until the project is considered finalized. 170
The closing phase collects all the decisions and data used in the simulation process presenting the results in a graphical manner. In such way, the students can review the correlation between the risk identification process, their decisions and the results of project progress. Based on this information, the students have to complete a lessons learned file which will be used in the next simulation session. 5. Conclusions and future work With a high risk due to their complexity, the construction projects require competent project managers with skills and knowledge in project risk management. However, the classical education, using the common methods for knowledge transfer demonstrates that this approach is not enough. The active and experiential way, stimulating the students to think creatively and to act properly as project managers brings value in their education. The experience gained in the master program of Project Management in Construction held in the Technical University of Civil Engineering, Bucharest, shows that educational simulation in construction project risk management contribute to the development of students competencies in this area. Using graphical features of the tools in the learning process allow the students to understand and to apply the concepts, tools and methodologies used in project risk management. As future work, we consider to enrich the architectural model, mainly by assuring a collaborative environment for simulations. References [1] Bokor,O., Hajdu, M. (2014). Teaching Construction Management Core Subjects with the Help of elearning, Proceedings of the Creative Construction Conference, 21-24 June, 2014, Prague, ISBN: 978-963-269-434-4. [2] CIOB (2008). Managing of Delayed Completion in the 21st Century, Chartered Institute of Building, pp.52-53. [3] Bodea, C., Mogoş,R., Dascălu, M., Purnuş A., Ciobotar, N. (2015). Simulation-Based E-Learning Framework for Entrepreneurship Education and Training, Amfiteatru Economic, Volume 17, February 2015, No. 38, ISSN 1582-9146, pg. 10-24. [4] Biggs. J. (2003) Teaching for Quality Learning at University What the Student Does 2nd Edition SRHE / Open University Press, Buckingham. [5] Anderson, Lorin W. & Krathwohl, David R. (2001). A Taxonomy for Learning, Teaching and Assessing: a Revision of Bloom s Taxonomy. New York. Longman Publishing. [6] Orehn T. (2009). Modeling and simulation: a comprehensive and integrative view, in: Yilmaz L., Oren T. (eds): Agent-based Simulation and Systems Engineering, Wiley-VCH, GmbH&Co, KgaA, Weinheim, ISBN 978-3-527-40781-1. [7] Heineke, J., Meile L. (2000). Classroom service game. Presentation at the Decision Science Institute annual meeting, November, 18. [8] Klassen, K., Wiloughby, K. A. (2003). In class simulation games: assessing student learning, Journal of Information Technology Education. Vol. 3. [9] Korman,T., Kasensky, M., Drnek, O., Rahn, K. (2014). Using Simulations to better train future and existing Construction Management personnel, Proceedings of the Creative Construction Conference, 21-24 June, 2014, Prague, ISBN: 978-963-269-434-4. [10] Zimmermann, J., Eber, W. (2014). Development of key performance indicators for organizational structures in construction and real estate management, Proceedings of the Creative Construction Conference, 21-24 June, 2014, Prague, ISBN: 978-963-269-434-4. 171