Nivesh Daily Currency February 3, 2016 Currency Pivot Levels Currency % OI % Prev OI Close Pair Change Change %Change R * Pivot S* USDINR 68.27 0.20 6.75-3.2 68.3550 68.2025 68.1175 EURINR 74.50 0.67 20.16-10.6 74.6417 74.4033 74.2567 GBPINR 98.19 0.90 8.55 3.45 98.4142 98.0908 97.8717 JPYINR 56.49 0.61 5.29-6.31 56.7033 56.4517 56.2433 Foreign Currency Update. Currency Pair Close % Change Dollar Index 98.87-0.18 EURUSD 1.0918 0.28 GBPUSD 1.4410-0.16 JPYUSD 119.96-0.88 * R= Resistance. S = Support USDINR February Expiry Option Update Closing. Options Close % Chg OI % OI Prev. OI % CE 67.50 0.89 11.25 56485 42.89 5.84 CE 68.00 0.5675 18.85 352462-15.57 23.13 CE 68.50 0.3425 20.18 342640-0.28 0.88 CE 69.00 0.21 16.67 358999 8.96 64.9 PE 67.50 0.125-23.08 127855 4.09-7.19 PE 68.00 0.295-15.71 212943-2.53-2.29 PE 68.50 0.57-12.98 150533-0.11 3.16 PE 69.00 0.93-11.00 4476 0.54 2.95 Note: Previous day movement of Option, OI and IV is positive move in USDINR. RBI Reference Rate ( 2 February 2016) Seema Yadav Research Analyst Tel: +91-0731-4262702 seema.yadav@indianivesh.in 1 USD 1 GBP 1 EURO 100 YEN 67.8340 97.6131 73.9323 56.2100 India Nivesh Securities Limited SEBI Registration No.INH000000511 601 & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai 400 007. Tel: (022) 66188800
Technical View on Major Currency Pair USDINR ( February Future) The Indian rupee extended fall against the dollar as overseas investors sold the local currency after selling stocks while yield on the new 10-year bond was set to post its biggest single-day gain in a month after the Reserve Bank of India said it will stay on disinflationary path. Technical Review USDINR witnessed 0.19% recovery and settled at 68.2625. In near term any rise towards 68.35-68.45 is could attract selling pressure following to the double top formation on EOD chart which is yet favoring for weakness on every rise unless it gives a closing above 68.60 levels. On the other hand, USDINR would need to trade above 68.60, in order to test 68.75 and 69.00. Recommendation : LTP Sell around Target Stop loss 68.27 68.35-68.40 68.20-67.85 68.60 Important Factor: U.S. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change EURINR ( February Future) Euro rose for the second straight trading day Tuesday tracking dollar weakness following the release of dismal US economic data. Euro's strength, the German unemployment rate unexpectedly fell in January, data released by the Federal Labour Agency showed Tuesday. The rate dropped to 6.2% in January from 6.3% the previous month, better than the 6.3% expected by economists. Technical Review: Daily Important Factor from Europe: German Final Services PMI EURINR witnessed 0.66% gain and after hitting a high of 74.55 settled at 74.4825. Today, EURINR may show recovery rally towards 74.75 and above following to the long bullish candle stick and favorable unemployment data. Recommendation/ View : LTP Buy around Target Stop loss 74.50 74.50-74.55 74.75-74.90 74.25
GBP ( February Future) Pound traded down Tuesday after a survey on United Kingdom's construction sector showed growth slipping to a 9-month low in January amid concerns over falling crude prices. UK construction sector experiences growth slowdown at the start of 2016. January data pointed to a renewed slowdown in output growth across the UK construction sector. Construction PMI dropped to 55.0, down from 57.8 in December. Construction firms report lowest business confidence since December 2014. Technical Review: GBPINR remained below the near term resistance of 98.35 and after hitting a low of 97.7675 settled at 98.1550. A formation of Doji candle stick on EOD chart is yet indicating for bearishness in GBPINR, and any rise towards 98.20-98.10 is expect to attract huge selling pressure. Important factor/data from U.K.: Services PMI Recommendation : LTP Sell around Target Stop loss 98.19 98.10-98.20 97.75-97.50 98.35 JPYINR (February Future) Japanese Yen traded up for second straight day Tuesday as demand for safe-haven yen increased after oil prices tumbled on fear of lower demand following weak manufacturing data from US and China. Technical Review After witnessing a recovery rally towards 56.66, JPYINR tested 56.39 and settled at 56.48 levels. Near term trend is expect to remain negative and any rise towards 56.50-56.60 could attract huge selling pressure for the target 56.00 and bleow. Recommendation/ View : LTP Sell around 56.40-56.50 Stop loss 56.15 Target 56.20-55.90 56.75 Important factor/data from Japan : BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks
Major Economic Data & Events Released Yesterday/Earlier U.K. Index for manufacturing rose to 52.9 in January from 52.1 in December. Economists had expected the index to fall to 51.8. Euro zone s unemployment rate fell to a seasonally adjusted 10.4% from 10.5% in November. This is the lowest rate recorded in the euro area since September 2011. Analysts had expected the jobless rate to hold steady at 10.5% in December. Euro zone PPI fell to a seasonally adjusted -0.8%, from -0.2% in the preceding month. Eurostat rate of unemployment fell to a seasonally adjusted 10.4%, from 10.5% in the preceding month. U.K. construction purchasing managers' index fell to a seasonally adjusted 55.0 last month from a reading of 57.8 in December. Economists had expected the index to decline to 57.5 in January. Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 11.4%, from 11.4% in the preceding quarter whose figure was revised up from 11.3%. Germany unemployment rate fell to a seasonally adjusted 6.2% in January from 6.3% a month earlier. Analysts had expected the jobless rate to hold steady at 6.3% last month. RBI kept CRR unchanged at 4% of NDTL, Repo rate under LAF unchanged at 6.75%; Reverse repo rate at 5.75%; MSF and bank rate at 7.75% The central bank kept its growth forecast unchanged at 7.4% for the fiscal year ending Mar 31, with a downside bias while expecting growth to pick up to 7.6% by the end of fiscal year ending March 2017. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda on Wednesday said expectations of lower prices among firms and households are "slightly concerning" but the bank's mission to achieve 2% inflation is "unshaken. Major Economic Data & Events Schedule today Time Currency Economic Indicators Forecast Previous Possible Impact 8:00am JPY BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks - - - 10:30am JPY Consumer Confidence 43.8 42.7 Positive 1:45pm EUR Spanish Services PMI 54.6 55.1 Negative 2:15pm EUR Italian Services PMI 54.2 55.3 Negative 2:20pm EUR French Final Services PMI 50.6 50.6 Neutral 2:25pm EUR German Final Services PMI 55.4 55.4 Neutral 2:30pm EUR Final Services PMI 53.6 53.6 Neutral 3:00pm GBP Services PMI 55.4 55.5 Negative 3:30pm EUR Italian Prelim CPI m/m -0.10% 0.00% Negative EUR Retail Sales m/m 0.40% -0.30% Positive 6:45pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 193K 257K Negative 8:15pm USD Final Services PMI 53.7 53.7 Neutral 8:30pm USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 55.1 55.3 Negative Impact: High Low Medium Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate in comparison with US Dollar. Technical Chart Source: Ticker News Source: Ticker news, Forexfactory.com, forexlive.com and investing.com *Dos Depends on Statement. DOV Depends on Votes. Source - investing.com & ticker news. IndiaNivesh Research Nivesh Daily Currency
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