1 Jordens resurser Mittuniversitetet, Östersund, 16 maj, 2012 Department of Earth Sciences President of ASPO International Global Energy Systems Uppsala University, Sweden Kjell.aleklett@geo.uu.se www.fysast.uu.se/ges Blog: aleklett.wordpress.com
2 Vad är en hållbar framtid? Hållbar för vem? För oss som människor? För naturen? För vårt jordklot? För hur lång tid?
Jordens historiska temperatur och koldioxidkoncentration, 600 miljoner år 3
Jordens historiska temperatur och koldioxidkoncentration, 350 tusen år 4
Globala energiresurser E = m c 2 Förnybar energi Politiskt korrekt Bioenergi, sol vind och vatten (geotermis energi) Global andel ~15% Fossilabränslen och aska från en supernova Politiskt ej korrekt Kol, olja och Naturgas uran Global andel ~ 85%
Tillgängliga energikällor Uran och Torium för kärnkraft Fossila bränslen; kol, olja och naturgas Biomassa: Skogsråvara, energiskog, rester från jordbruket Torv Vattenkraft Väderrelatera energi: Sol-, vind- och vågenergi Avfall Värme från luft, vatten och mark
The fuel for the sun is the ashes from Big Bang
Uranium and Thorium are ashes from a supernova Supernova 1987A
Where to find non-renewable fuels
30 m 55 m Exponentiell tillväxt och Globen i Stockholm 340.000 liter 280.000 liter 110 m En vattendroppe har en diameter mellan 2 och 4 millimeter och det motsvarar en 1.0 10-8 kubikmeter. Det betyder att en liter vatten har 100 000 droppar. Exempel på exponentiell tillväxt: Minut 1 1 droppe, minut 2 2 droppar, minut 3 4 droppar, minut 4 8 droppar, minut 5 16 droppar osv. När är en hink som är 11 liter full? När måste du lämna läktaren som är 30 meter upp i Globen? När är Globen helt vattenfylld?
30 m 55 m Exponentiell tillväxt och Globen i Stockholm 340.000 liter 280.000 liter 110 m En vattendroppe har en diameter mellan 2 och 4 millimeter och det motsvarar en 1.0 10-8 kubikmeter. Det betyder att en liter vatten har 100 000 droppar. Exempel på exponentiell tillväxt: Minut 1 1 droppe, minut 2 2 droppar, minut 3 4 droppar, minut 4 8 droppar, minut 5 16 droppar osv. När är en hink som är 11 liter full? Svar: 41 minuter När måste du lämna läktaren som är 30 meter upp i Globen? Svar: 55 minuter När är Globen helt vattenfylld? Svar: 57 minuter
30 m 55 m Exponentiell tillväxt och Globen i Stockholm 340.000 liter 280.000 liter 110 m
13 Fördubblingstakt Antal år ln(2) x 100 69 till = = fördubbling ökningstakt(%) x % Exempel: Ökning med 14 % Antal år = 69/14 = 5 år År: 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 Antal: 250 500 1000 2000 4000 Per 5 år: 250 500 1000 2000
What are important for today s students? Students in Energy Systems at Uppsala University, Sweden
What are important for today s students? Students in Energy Systems at Uppsala University, Sweden Food three times per day Shelter To make money Social relations Climate Security
The Human Well Being (HWB) equation Mänsklighetens välfärdsekvation HWB(E) = Food(E) *Shelter(E)* Economy(E) * Climate(E) * Security(E) E = Energy Energy is running the world, not money
Ljusfördelning över världen 17
Fossil fuel and other energies
Det globala energisystemet 19 * Transformation of fossil fuels from primary energy into a form that can be used in the final consuming sectors.
20
World primary demand by scenario 21
IPCC
Kolreserver och kolproduktion
How Much Coal? Science 13 March 2009
How Much Coal? Science 13 March 2009
Bevisade reserver av kol enligt BP
Coal Reserves Top Five Coal Reserves 2006 [Mt] Country Reserve Share of world 1. USA 246 643 27.1 % 2. Russia 157 010 17.3 % 3. China 114 500 12.6 % 4. India 92 445 10.2 % 5. Australia 78 500 8.6 %
Coal Production Top Five Coal Producers 2006 [Mt] Country Production Share of world 1. China 2 380 38,4 % 2. USA 1 054 17.0 % 3. India 447 7,2 % 4. Australia 374 6.0 % 5. Russia 309 4.9 %
Coal Usage Coal usage 14% 58% 12% 16% Residential, agricultural, etc. Cement and other industrial applications Metallurgy (iron and steel making) Electricity and heat generation
Coal reserves in USA Figure 2: Coal Production by Coal-Producing Region, 2005 (Million Short Tons and Percent Change from 2004) Source: EIA, Annual Coal Report, 2005
Peak Coal
Future coal production in the USA
Coal in Russia Figure 8: Geographical distribution of the Russian coal basins
Coal Reserves in China Distribution of coal deposits in China
Coal production forecast 2006
Naturgas
Gas reserves according to IEA
Existing production areas The Heart of Europe The Heart of Europe
Heart problems
Bypass operation
A peak in discoveries must give a peak in production!
Future Russian Gas Production and Demand Russian domestic gas demand Limited increase of export potential due to increasing Russian domestic demand. Source: Söderbergh, B., (2010). Production from Giant Gas Fields in Norway and Russia and Subsequent Implications for European Energy Security Bengt Söderbergh
Shale Gas Can it Work Outside N. America? 43
Globala gasflöden
45 Our society needs oil!!!
Our Daily Barrel We have a liquids problem
Deferent types of hydrocarbons listed as oil 48
Conventional oil What is oil? Crude oil. Oil produced as shales oil. Unconventional oil Bitumen and extra heavy oil from Canada s oil sands. Extra heavy oil from Venezuela s Orinoco belt. Oil produced from oil shales (kerogen shales) Conversion into oil Oil produced from coal by CTL methods (coal-to-liquids) Oil produced from natural gas by GTL methods (gas-toliquids)
50 World Oil Supply in 2010 according to International Energy Agency Total liquids Ethanol Processing gains 87.3 million barrels per day 1.8 million barrels per day 2.3 million barrels per day Total oil 83.2 million barrels per day 2007 2008 2009 2010 IEA: 82.2 Mb/d 82.8 Mb/d 81.3 Mb/d 83.2 Mb/d BP: 81.5 Mb/d 82.0 Mb/d 80.3 Mb/d 82.1 Mb/d
When was oil produced?
Sediment deposit for oil and gas
There must be places where we can find more oil endowment - USGS
Oil and natural gas are produced in petroleum systems
Oil and Gas in the North Sea
Oil Production in the North Sea 56
ASPO The Association for the Study of Peak Oil&Gas Med Peak Oil avses den tidpunkt då produktionen av olja i ett område eller globalt inte längre kan öka utan går över till en platå eller minskar. Peak Oil betyder inte att oljan tar slut men att ökningen av produktionen tar slut på grund av att produktionen sinar. "The term Peak Oil refers the maximum rate of the production of oil in any area under consideration, recognizing that it is a finite natural resource, subject to depletion."
58
59
World primary demand by scenario 60
Peak Oil - 2002
62
New Policies Scenario WEO-2012 63 Prediction for 2030 WEO 2004 121 Mb/d, WEO 2006 116 Mb/d WEO 2008 106 Mb/d, WEO 2010 96 Mb/d
World Energy Outlook 2008-decline
Breakeven of 360 non-producing & recent onstream oilfields from Goldman Sachs 65
There must be places where we can find more oil endowment - USGS
The Elephants The Giant oilfields
Number and size of oilfields
Jack 2 Kebnekaise and Mount Everest
Map of oil regions in the Arctic's
Estimated oil north of the Arctic Circle Prudhoe Bay
Oljeproduktion i polarområdet 72
73
US scenario, not forcast 74
75
The USA oil production 76
Bakken 12-month Cumulative Production Map Map shows wells with first production in 2006 or later. Green areas indicate break-even or greater production volumes Most production on the map is from the Three Forks reservoir. Indicates that production is from discreet fields. Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. ASPO USA 2012 Conference 77 KjellSlide Aleklett
78
79
Bakken Shale Annual Base Replacement Bakken Shale Static Decline Profile Oil Production Number of Wells 350,000 3000 300,000 2500 Barrles of Oil Per Day 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 2000 1500 1000 Number of Wells 50,000 500 0 Jun-00 Oct-00 Feb-01 Jun-01 Oct-01 Feb-02 Jun-02 Oct-02 Feb-03 Jun-03 Oct-03 Feb-04 Jun-04 Oct-04 Feb-05 Jun-05 Oct-05 Feb-06 Jun-06 Oct-06 Feb-07 Jun-07 Oct-07 Feb-08 Jun-08 Oct-08 Feb-09 Jun-09 Oct-09 Feb-10 Jun-10 Oct-10 Feb-11 Jun-11 Oct-11 0 38% annual decline rate. Must replace 182,000 bo/d each year to maintain supply. That means approximately 1,488 new producing wells/year at a cost of ~ $17 billion. 1130 new producing wells were added in last 12 months ($13 billion). Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. Houston SIPES Continuing Education Seminar Data from DI Kjell Slide Aleklett 80
Flaring 81
Production of crude oil
Giant oilfields in Saudi Arabia
84 The laws of physics are stronger then the laws of economy
Oil (tar) sand production 85
Oil sand production
Crash Program Production from Canadian Oil Sands, (Energy Policy, 2007) 7000 6000 Thousand Bbls Per Day 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 2050 Year Total Mining, Crash Program Total In Situ, Crash Program Bengt Söderbergh, Fredrik Robelius, Energy Policy 35 (2007) 1931 1947
5 Mb/d - The size of the tap in 2030 88 Data by the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers.
The two new taps from Alberta 89
Enbridge Northern Gateway pipeline 90
The Yinka Dene Alliance Includes 6 First Nations (Nadleh Whut'en, Nak'azdli, Takla Lake, Saik'uz, and Wet'suwet'en) in northern 1 BC who have banned the Enbridge Northern Gateway Pipelines from their territories. 91
The US tap The Keystone pipelines 92
93 Capacity 2025: 2.4 Mb/d
Oronoco oilfield
New Policies Scenario WEO-2012 95 Prediction of NGL, Unconventional and Tight oil 2011: 18 Mb/d 2035: 34 Mb/d (+16 Mb/d)
New future unconventional oil production
Predicted demand from the IEA scenarios 97
The Uppsala scenarios and production according to BP 98 2007: Thesis by Fredrik Robelius and data from BP Statistical Review of World Energy
99
The Human Well Being (HWB) equation HWB(E) = Food(E) * Economy(E) * Climate(E) * Security(E) E = Energy
Food and Fuel can agriculture provide? Agriculture as provider of both food and fuel Kersti Johansson, Karin Liljequist, Lars Ohlander, and Accepted for publication in AMBIO The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences
Food and oil prices 1990-2009
Oil for food
Bio Oilfield Bio Soybean Biodiesel (Output/input energy ~ 3)*
Sugar Cane Output/Input Energy ~ 8.2* Ethanol production in 2006: 16 billion liters *Goldenberg, J.L.C Renewable Energies, Island Press, 1993
Palm Oil Biodiesel
Food Energy on the Table Recommended energy per person: 2500 kcal per day Recommended energy for the global population, 6.7 billion persons: 7100 TWh per year Nobel Dinner 2007 Or in oil equivalence: 12 million barrels per day
Needed energy for food production 1 calorie on the table in USA needs 7.4 calories of energy. With a global factor of 5 calories we get that 12 Mb/d food energy need around 60 Mb/d oil, gas and coal, and most of that is oil.
Food and oil prices 1990-2009
We are eating oil Nobel Dinner 2007
Can agriculture provide us with both food and fuel?
Food and Fuel Global agricultural production and some scenarios for possible biogas and ethanol production compared to present consumption of fossil motor fuels and global food demand.
Food or Fuel Today s agricultural cannot provide us with food and fuel.
The Human Well Being (HWB) equation Mänsklighetens välfärdsekvation HWB(E) = Food(E) *Shelter(E)* Economy(E) * Climate(E) * Security(E) E = Energy
Beyond Oil Shanghai Kungliga konsthögskolan 2007 http://www.peakoil.net/files/resources72dpi.pdf
The Human Well Being (HWB) equation Mänsklighetens välfärdsekvation HWB(E) = Food(E) *Shelter(E)* Economy(E) * Climate(E) * Security(E) E = Energy
Energy and Economic Growth
Before the oil age, Sweden 1946 When I was born in 1945, none of the four small farms in my little Swedish village used oil for anything. Ten years later, the oil age had arrived: we had replaced coal with oil for heating, my father had bought a motorcycle, and tractors were seen in the fields.
Energy in Sweden during 100 years TWh 700 600 500 A factor of five Nuclear 400 300 Oil and gas 200 100 Hydro 0 Coal Bio 1900 1920 1940 1960 1974 1982 1990 1998 From 1945 to 1970, Sweden increased its use of energy by a factor of five, or nearly 7 percent per year for 25 years. This journey into the oil age transformed Sweden from a rather poor country into the third wealthiest country (per capita) in the world. Ninety percent of the energy increase came from oil. Cheap oil made Sweden rich.
GDP per capita
Oil Intensity
Business as Usual and Oil Demand World Energy Outlook 2008,
Business as Usual and Oil Demand
IEA prediction for 2030 WEO 2004 121 Mb/d WEO 2006 116 Mb/d WEO 2008 106 Mb/d WEO 2010 96 Mb/d WEO 2012 86? Mb/d
The Human Well Being (HWB) equation Mänsklighetens välfärdsekvation HWB(E) = Food(E) *Shelter(E)* Economy(E) * Climate(E) * Security(E) E = Energy
Daqing
Daqing - China Petroleum has a compact relationship with a countries political, economical and military strength.
Chokepoints 130
The Human Well Being (HWB) equation Mänsklighetens välfärdsekvation HWB(E) = Food(E) *Shelter(E)* Economy(E) * Climate(E) * Security(E) E = Energy
The energy system The Planet Heat in Heat out
We need to extinguish the fossil fire!
Amplificationfactors
IPCC
IPCC and Peak Oil
IPCC and oil production
A peak in discoveries must give a peak in production!
IPCC and oil + gas production
Peak Coal
IPCC and Peak Coal
An Inconvenient Truth
IPCC and Peak Coal
IPCC and oil+gas+coal production
IPCC
Langare av koldioxid
Andra viktiga resurser Vatten Cement Olika metaller
Global Wellbeing Equation
Time is running out
We Have to Build a Crash Mat
Dr. James R Schlesinger, former US Energy Secretary And therefore to the peakists I say, You can declare victory. You are no longer the beleagured small minority of voices crying in the wilderness. You are now main streams. You must learn to take yes for an answer and be gracious in victory. Cork, Ireland, 2007 September 17
A World Addicted to Oil Aleklett, Capitol Hill 19 Oct 2005 President Bush, Capitol Hill, 2006: We have a serious problem. America is addicted to oil
We are addicted to oil? 100 ml of oil contains 1 kwh What can you do with 1 kwh? You can move a small car to the top of the Eiffel Tower! A day s work for a man is 0.5 kwh Filling your car with 50 liters is equal to the energy you need to move 500 cars to the top of the Eiffel Tower or having 1000 slaves pushing your car.
50 liter gasoline is equal to the work of 1000 persons during one day
World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2013 in Davos 156 Christine Lagarde, IMF, the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund Megatrends shaping our future: Increasing vulnerability from resource scarcity and climate change, with the potential for major social and economic disruption. Peak Oil
Future GDP and Peak Oil 157 Michael Kümhof
158
April 2013 - Peak Oil conference in Doha, Qatar: The Dictator s Survival Probability 159
Oil fields in Iraq
Oil fields in Iraq Let us squeeze in 100 Gb of oil into one bottle of Champagne.
We are drinking oil! If 100 Gb of oil is squeezed into one bottle of Champagne we have consumed 11 bottles.
The global reserve of crude oil is 8 (9) bottles of Champagne
Where to find the crude oil or the 8 bottles of Champagne?
The global consumption per year is 30 billion barrels of oil One bottle of Champagne is equal to the consumption in three years and four months.
The USA is addicted to oil President Bush, Capitol Hill, 2006: We have a serious problem. America is addicted to oil From the beginning the nature had put two bottles in the ground in USA. They are just now sipping on the last glass.
The global reserve of crude oil is 8 bottles of Champagne We will discover two more bottles of Champagne We also have three more bottles sparkling wine in Canada and Venezuela.
The global reserve of crude oil is 8 bottles of Champagne We have in total 11 bottles (8+3) to empty and 2 more to find, in total 13 bottles. If it takes 3 1/3 years to empty one bottle everyone should be aware of that the party is over and that we need to sobering up! + +
Springer has the copy right to the Kjell illustrations Aleklett
170 World Oil May 2012 This book should be required reading for anyone seriously interested in the future world energy market and economy, especially politicians and policymakers.