Weekly Precious Metals Market Review Indications only open & closing prices are bids data source Thomson Reuters important disclaimer below times are GMT OTC$Market$Data Date 18.Jan.15 Week$Ending$16/01/2015 Gold Silver Platinum Palladium High$Bid $1,306.00 $18.480 $1,287.50 $781.00 Low$Offer $1,272.50 $17.500 $1,257.00 $750.00 Weekly$Close $1,294.00$ $18.260 $1,263.25$ $772.00$ Previous$Week $1,279.75$ $17.750 $1,263.75$ $754.75$ Weekly$Change$USD $14.25$ $0.510$ ($0.50) $17.25$ Change$% 1.11% 2.87%.0.04% 2.29% YTD$Change$USD $110.50$ $2.600$ $63.25$ ($21.00) YTD$Change$% 9.34% 16.60% 5.27%.2.65% Weekly&High&London&Fix $1,298.00& $18.230 $1,285.00& $778.00& Weekly&Low&London&Fix $1,273.75& $17.650 $1,264.00& $761.00& YTD&High&London&Fix& $1,298.00& $18.230 $1,285.00& $817.00& YTD&Low&London&Fix& $1,172.00& $15.710 $1,193.00& $761.00& ATM$Option$Vols$.$1m 16.12% 27.46% 17.26% 22.69% Forward$Swaps$.$1$m$ 0.10000% 0.35000% 0.10000%.0.15000% Implied$Lease$Rates$.$1$m 0.06775%.0.18225% 0.06775% 0.31775% CME$Active$Month$Settlement$ Weekly$Close Previous$Week Weekly$Change Weekly$Change$% Gold $1,292.60$ $1,276.90$ $15.70$ 1.23% Silver $18.300 $17.750 $0.55$ 3.10% Platinum $1,268.70$ $1,269.40$ ($0.70).0.06% Palladium $774.10$ $754.30$ $19.80$ 2.62% CME$Total$Open$Interest Gold 450,985 421,911 29,074$ 6.89% Silver 160,998 157,013 3,985$ 2.54% Platinum 67,416 66,443 973$ 1.46% Palladium 34,611 33,757 854$ 2.53% ETF$Holdings Gold 45,825,737 45,168,166 657,571$ 1.46% Silver 526,786,606 530,566,010.3,779,404$.0.71% Platinum 2,331,744 2,338,439.6,695$.0.29% Palladium 2,582,490 2,601,164.18,674$.0.72% Other$Markets USD$LIBOR$1$m$ 0.16775% 0.16800%.0.00025%.0.15% Brent$Crude $48.79$ $50.17$ ($1.38).2.75% USD$Index$(.DXY) 94.990$ 92.650$ 2.340$ 2.53% US$Equities$(.DJIA) 17,672.60 17,511.57 161.03 0.92% Key$US$Economic$Events$This$Week Date Time$(UAE) Expected$ Previous FOMC$Meeting$Bgins 27/01/15 Durable$Goods$Orders$m/m$%$.$Dec 27/01/15 17.30$ 0.70.0.70 New$Home$Sales$.$Dec 27/01/15 19.00$ 452k 438k Consumer$Confidence$.$Jan 27/01/15 19.00$ 96.00 92.60 FOMC$Announcment 28/01/15 Weekly$Jobless$Claims 29/01/15 17.30$ 300k 307k GDP$Q4$'14$Q/Q$% 30/01/15 17.30$ 3.20 5.00 Chicago$PMI$.$Jan 30/01/15 18.45$ 57.70 58.30 Consumer$Sentiment$.$Jan 30/01/15 19.00$ 98.20 98.20 Page 1 of 5
MARKET NEWS & DATA - SOURCE THOMSON REUTERS EIKON 24- Jan- 2015 00:55 NEW YORK, Jan 23 (Reuters) - Hedge funds and money managers raised their bullish bet in gold contracts during the week to Jan. 20, as the market rallied on safe- haven buying, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed on Friday. The speculators also raised their net long position in silver futures and options, and decreased their bearish bet in copper contracts, the data showed. They added 31,004 contracts to their net long gold position, bringing it to 145,732 contracts; a bullish move after Switzerland's central bank unexpectedly abandoned its three- year cap on the franc. The run- up also came before reports of the European Central Bank's bond- buying program, which lifted gold prices above $1,300 per ounce. Speculators increased their net long position in silver futures and options by 8,057 lots to 33,624 contracts, the data showed. Jan 23 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs on Friday slashed its 2015 price forecasts for several base metals including copper and aluminum while raising its estimate for gold by $62 per ounce. "The primary reason for the changes to our forecasts is cost deflation driven by a combination of actual and anticipated U.S. dollar strength, cheaper energy and other input costs, and our expectation of an improvement in mining productivity," Goldman Sachs said. Weaker- than- expected Chinese and European demand has also contributed to the deflationary environment, it added. Goldman cut its 2015 average copper price forecast to $5,542 per tonne from $6,400, and aluminum to $1,788 per tonne from $2,075. The bank slashed its 2015 average price view for lead to $1,838 per tonne from $2,350, nickel to $16,550 a tonne from $17,500, and zinc to $2,138 per tonne from $2,425. The investment bank expects nickel, zinc and palladium to substantially outperform copper in 2015. Goldman increased its 2015 average price forecast for gold to $1,262 per ounce from $1,200, saying the downward trend for prices since mid- 2013 has been well short of its expectations. The bank expected gold prices to rise in the near term citing recent factors, including weaker- than- expected U.S. economic data, the run- up to an announcement on the quantitative easing measures by the European Central Bank and the unexpected decision by the Swiss National Bank to remove its cap on the Swiss franc against the euro. However, the bank saw lower gold prices in the longer term, mainly due to expectations of lower inflation, lower energy prices having a deflationary effect on gold's mining marginal cost and a stronger U.S. dollar Goldman expects gold prices to resume declining in the third quarter, in line with the start of the expected hike in interest rates by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Goldman slashed its 2016 average gold price outlook to $1,089 per ounce from $1,200. For platinum, the bank decreased its 2015 average price estimate to $1,250 per ounce from $1,381. There could be more downside pressure on platinum with continuing strength in the U.S. dollar and further downside in the South African rand. South Africa is a major producer of platinum. NEW YORK/LONDON, Jan 23 (Reuters) - Gold fell as much as 1.3 percent on Friday as the dollar rose and markets digested the mixed implications of a European Central Bank plan to pump about one trillion euros into the euro zone's flagging economy. The metal, often seen as a hedge against inflation, jumped more than 1 percent above $1,300 on Thursday after the ECB announcement. But with the euro hitting an 11- year low against the dollar EUR=, gold prices pared some of those gains as investors focused on the impact of the stronger U.S. currency, which makes dollar- denominated assets more expensive for investors holding other currencies. "Gold was completely dislocated from the dollar yesterday, meaning that euro- gold is the best performing commodity this year, helping dollar gold stay fairly stable around $1,300," Saxo Bank's Ole Hansen said. "But that strength in the dollar is now proving too much." Spot gold dropped to a session low of $1,284.26 and was down 0.8 percent at $1,291.20 by 2:48 p.m. EST (1948 GMT). Bullion peaked at $1,306.20 on Thursday, its highest since Aug. 15, and was still headed for a third straight weekly gain. U.S. gold futures GCcv1 closed down $8.10 at $1,292.60 an ounce, in what traders called a "pull- back" session as the market consolidated. The dollar rose by up to 1.4 percent against a basket of six other major currencies.dxy, mostly due to euro weakness, while European shares had their biggest two- week rally in five years. Euro- priced gold hit it s highest since April 2013 at 1,167.60 euros an ounce. Goldman Sachs in a report seen by Reuters on Friday raised its 2015 gold price forecast to $1,262 per ounce from $1,200. Traders are likely to turn to Sunday's election in Greece and next week's Federal Open Market Committee policy meeting for clues on the wider economic environment and when U.S. interest rates might rise. The Fed is expected to repeat that global risks have yet to throw the U.S. recovery or its rate- hike plans off track despite the growing number of central banks cutting rates and ramping up stimulus. "People are coming to the conclusion that while the ECB is getting more expansionary, the Fed may be forced to be less restrictive because of the headwinds to inflation from the drop in oil prices, which can trigger some delay in interest rate hikes and would be positive for gold," Julius Baer analyst Carsten Menke said. Among other precious metals, spot silver was down 0.2 percent at $18.25. Palladium lost 0.1 percent to $771.20, while platinum fell 1.3 percent to $1,264. 2
RPMC COMMENTARY Gold had another good week with the price rising from a low of $1272.50 on Monday to post a 5- month high of $1306 on Thursday in the wake of the ECB decision to embark on their version of QE that see the usually conservative European Central Bank print over 1 trillion euros in an effort to boost the Eurozone s flagging economy. A bout of profit taking on Friday as the dollar surged saw gold fall back to end with a pared gain of $14.25 or 1.11% at $1294 bid. The yellow metal has had an impressive start to 2015 with the price surging by $110 or 9.35% boosted by the combination of falling oil prices, the shock move by the Swiss National Bank to de- peg from the Euro, and Friday s decision by the ECB to embark on an era of easy money. Gold s New Year rally is even more impressive in Euro terms with a 19% advance. A sharp 21% increase in open interest on the COMEX since the start of the year highlights the extent to which safe haven and speculative buying has returned to the market and we seem set for an interesting first quarter. For now stiff resistance set at $1320 is likely to cap the upside in the week ahead and the close below $1300 could lead to further profit taking that could see the price ease back towards support pegged at $1275. Silver rose from a low of $17.50 on Monday to reach a four- month high of $18.48 on Wednesday before falling back to end with a pared 51 cents or 2.87% gain on the week at $18.26. For the year to date the industrial precious metal has gained over 16% as it resumed its role as a cheap safe haven proxy for gold and as such its fortunes are tied to movements in the yellow metal. Technically silver is probing the 200 day moving average set at $18.35 and it needs to make a clear break above this long- term chart indicator to attract fresh momentum buying. 3
Platinum largely followed the same trading pattern as gold and silver with the noble metal posting its low for the week of $1257 on Monday and rising to high of $1287.50 on Thursday in reaction to the ECB decision to start QE. However the price faded badly on Friday in the face of the surging USD, falling back to give up all its gains to end barely changed on the week at $1263.25 bid. This reversal was technically disappointing and we could now see the 100- day MA pegged at $1245 in the week ahead. However a platinum price below gold is, in my view, unsustainable in the longer term, and with lower fuel costs likely to boost industrial demand from the auto sector along with the growth impact of QE on the Eurozone economy, the noble metal looks attractive as a cross trade versus the yellow metal. Palladium staged a recovery from its poor start to 2015 with the price rising to a high of $781 in midweek, up from $750 on Monday, before falling back to end a positive week up $17.25 or 2.29% at $772 bid. Interestingly the rally failed to probe the 100- day MA set at $790 and the junior precious metal remains negative on the charts following the death cross posted in mid December when the 100- day MA crossed down through the 200- day MA at $815. Despite palladium s strong long- term fundamentals, technical momentum remains to the downside and it requires a move back above $790 to neutralize this and for an eventual break through $817 to get the bull market back on track. 4
ABOUT RPMC Rhodes Precious Metals Consultancy DMCC was established in December 2013 with a strategy to provide consultancy and advisory services to prospective clients seeking to establish new business activity in physical precious metals, or to enhance and improve existing businesses, by providing product knowledge, regional expertise, influence and distribution capability. The founder and Managing Consultant of RPMC, Jeffrey Rhodes, has a proven track record of having built successful global gold and silver businesses in a number of different corporate structures, geographies and environments ranging from major bullion banks to regional precious metals trading companies. SERVICES RPMC provides consultancy and advisory services to prospective clients seeking to establish new business activity in physical precious metals, or to enhance and improve existing businesses, by providing product knowledge, regional expertise, influence and distribution capability. RPMC offers advice on all aspects of the precious metals business including hedging and risk management products, logistics, pricing and execution of transactions in precious metals. The consultancy and advisory services cover: Ø Physical precious metals, including primary and secondary supply, i.e. bullion bars and scrap. Ø Paper trading of precious metals on a margin basis, including spot and forwards. Ø Over- the- counter options and other derivatives relating to the underlying physical precious metals. Ø Precious metals facilities related to the financing of physical flows, i.e. leases, consignments, L/C backed transactions etc. Ø Gold jewelry financing on a fully secured basis. Ø Compliance, KYC, anti- money laundering and responsible supply chain management procedures. CLIENTS RPMC s offers its range of consultancy and advisory services to: Ø Regional Banks and Financial institutions Ø Government Agencies Ø Regional Central Banks Ø Bullion wholesalers and traders Ø Jewellery manufacturers, wholesalers, retailers Ø Producers /Mining Companies Ø Refiners and smelters Ø HNW s 5