As America Becomes More Diverse: The Impact of State Higher Education Inequality State Profile Questions You Should Ask How educated is s adult population and workforce? How does compare to the national average, the most educated states, and the most educated countries? What are the disparities in educational attainment, participation and completion in higher education, and personal income by gender and race/ethnicity? How is the demographic composition of expected to change? How will expected changes in demography given current disparities in education and personal income affect the overall educational attainment and personal income of? Prepared by the National Center for Higher Education Management Systems with Support from the Lumina Foundation for Education
The Impact of State Higher Education Inequality State Profile Racial/Ethnic Composition of s Working Age Population (Ages 25 to 64) from 1980 to 2000 500,000 450,000 400,000 350,000 348,940 African-American Hispanic/Latino Native American/AK Native Asian/Pacific Islander 413,157 451,400 355,817 300,000 265,446 250,000 200,000 190,040 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 55,077 36,860 9,260 13,098 15,165 3,600 6,639 1980 1990 2000 72,453 11,096 Educational Attainment of 25 to 64 Year Olds in 2000 (All Races) 45% 35% 41.3% WV US Average Highest State 25% 22.4% 26.6% 27.8% 24.2% 22.3% 29.9% UT 23.2% 15% 17.9% 16.1% MS 6.7% 7.2% 11.6% ND 14.4% 17.1% CO 10.2% 9.4% 15.1% MA 5% Less than High School High School/No College Some College Associates Bachelor's Graduate and Professional Sources: US Census Bureau s Public Use Microdata Samples (Based on the 1990 and 2000 Census ) 1
Disparities in Educational Attainment by Gender and Race/Ethnicity LEGEND African-American Hispanic/Latino Native American/AK Native Asian/Pacific Islander Educational Attainment of 25 to 64 Year Olds (Working Age) Percent with a Bachelor s Degree or Higher by Gender and Race/Ethnicity Percent with an Associates Degree or Higher by Gender and Race/Ethnicity 6 7 5 6 5 1980 1990 2000 1990 2000 Sources: US Census Bureau s Public Use Microdata Samples (Based on the 1980, 1990, and 2000 Census ) Note: Associate Degree Data not Available for 1980. Educational Attainment of 25 to 34 Year Olds (The Young Workforce) Percent with a Bachelor s Degree or Higher By Gender and Race/Ethnicity Percent with an Associates Degree or Higher By Gender and Race/Ethnicity 7 8 6 5 7 6 5 1980 1990 2000 Sources: US Census Bureau s Public Use Microdata Samples (Based on the 1980, 1990, and 2000 Census ) Note: Associate Degree Data not Available for 1980. 1990 2000 2
Educational Attainment by Gender and Race/Ethnicity (25 to 34 Year Olds Continued) LEGEND African-American Hispanic/Latino Native American/AK Native Asian/Pacific Islander Educational Attainment of 25 to 34 Year Olds (The Young Workforce) Indexed to the Top Country Indexed to the Top Country Percent with a Bachelor s Degree or Higher By Gender and Race/Ethnicity Indexed to the Top Country Percent with an Associates Degree or Higher By Gender and Race/Ethnicity 1.8 1.4 1.6 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.0 Top Country (Canada) 1.0 Top Country (Norway) 0.8 US Index = 0.77 0.8 US Index = 0.86 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 WM WF BM BF HM HF NAM NAF APM APF Sources: US Census Bureau s Public Use Microdata Samples (Based on the 2000 Census) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Personal Income 1 s Personal Income Per Capita as a Percent of the US Average (1960 to 2000) 10 US Average 8 82.8% 82.5% 78.1% 76.4% 73.4% 6 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Source: US Census Bureau s Current Population Survey (1960, 1970, 1980,1990, and 2000) 3
Higher Education Participation and Completion by Race/Ethnicity LEGEND African-American Hispanic/Latino Native American/AK Native Asian/Pacific Islander Representation (%) of Race/Ethnic Groups at Each Stage of the Education Pipeline (2002) 6 5 49% 51% 47% 36% 44% 42% 42% 44% 41% 41% 41% 38% 36% 11% 11% 4% 3% 2% 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 18 Year Olds High School Graduates Sources: US Census Bureau (18 Year Olds), Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (HS Graduates), and the National Center for Education Statistics (College Participation and Completion) 12 % First-Time Freshmen 9% All Other Undergraduates 13 % Associate Degrees Awarded Bachelor's Degrees Awarded Graduation Rates by Race/Ethnicity (2002) 8% All Credentials and Degrees Awarded Actual vs. Parity Difference in the Percentage of Credentials Awarded and the Percentage of 18 Year Olds by Race/Ethnicity (2002) Three-Year Graduation Rates for Associate Students US Average 29.1% 12.9% 11.3% 18.4% 10.4% 0.3% 15.3% 27.7% -12.7% Six-Year Graduation Rates for Bachelor s Students US Average 54.3% -2.8% 44.4% 1.8% 32.8% 38.6% -15% - -5% 5% 15% Sources: US Census Bureau (18 Year Olds), Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (HS Graduates), and the National Center for Education Statistics (College Participation and Completion) 21.5% 47.2% 6 8 Source: National Center for Education Statistics (IPEDS Graduation Rate Survey) 4
The Impact of Changing Demographics on Educational Attainment and Personal Income (2000 to 2020) Projected changes in educational attainment and personal income per capita are based on the US Census Bureau s population projections by age and race/ethnicity and 2000 educational attainment and personal income data by age and race/ethnicity. The analyses are designed to help answer the following question: Given current disparities in educational attainment and personal income by age and race/ethnicity, how will the changing demographics in my state impact the overall educational attainment and personal income of the adult population? Projected Change in 25 to 64 Year Olds by Race/Ethnicity (from 2000 to 2020) 600,000 550,308 500,000 451,400 473,693 African-American Hispanic/Latino Native American/AK Native 400,000 355,817 Asian/Pacific Islander 300,000 200,000 100,000 72,453 109,619 0 15,165 18,363 11,096 16,187 2000 2020 2000 2020 2000 2020 2000 2020 2000 2020 Changes in Educational Attainment as a Result of the Projected Changes In Race/Ethnicity (25 to 64 Year Olds from 2000 to 2020) Less than High School Associates High School Bachelor s 26.7% 27.5% Some College Graduate/Professional 23.8% 23.6% 18. 20.1% 14.9% 13.2% 6.7% 6.5% 9.9% 9. 2000 2020 2000 2020 2000 2020 2000 2020 2000 2020 2000 2020 Sources: US Census Bureau s Population Projections (from 1995 to 2025) and Census 2000 5
The Impact of Changing Demographics on Educational Attainment and Personal Income (2000 to 2020) - Continued Number Change in Adults 25 to 64 by Degree Level from 2000 to 2020 Change in Per Capita Personal Income from 2000 to 2020 (In 2000 $) 70,000 $40,000 60,000 57,148 57,801 Less than High School High School Some College US Average Top State 50,000 Associates Bachelor s $30,000 $28,869 $27,813 41,574 Graduate/Professional 40,000 $21,591 $21,196 30,000 $20,000 $17,281 $17,123 20,000 $10,000 10,000 10,216 7,377 7,407 0 $0 1 2 3 4 5 6 2000 2020 Source: US Census Bureau s Population Projections and Census 2000 Source: US Census Bureau s Population Projections and Census 2000 If Hispanics/Latinos, African-Americans, and Native Americans achieved the same levels of education as s by 2020, New Mexico s personal income would increase by $4.9 Billion (in 2000 $). Note: Does not account for racial/ethnic disparities in personal earnings for the same levels of education. 6
The Impact of State Higher Education Inequality Summary is the most diverse state in the U.S with s representing less that half of the workforce population. All race/ethnic populations grew in from 1980 to 2000. But the majority of growth occurred among s and Hispanics. Hispanics are expected to account for the majority of future growth while easily becoming the majority race/ethnic population by 2020. The workforce has fewer college degrees than the nation as a whole and substantially less than the most educated states. A very high percentage of 25 to 64 year olds (18%) have less than a high school education and 19 percent of the younger population ages 25 to 34 have less than a high school diploma (among the highest percentages of all states in the U.S.). An unusually high percentage of 25 to 64 year olds (24%) have some college but no degree. have made progress in educational attainment relative to males but sizable disparities still exist among racial/ethnic populations. The difference between the two largest populations ( and Hispanic) is among the largest of any state. Seventeen percent of Hispanics have attained college degrees compared to nearly 44 percent of s. And only 17 percent of Native Americans (the second largest minority population) have attained college degrees. Only Asians exceed the most educated countries in the percentage of adults (ages 25 to 34) with a bachelor s degree and all college degrees (associate and higher) which is an important consideration in an increasingly global economy. s personal income per capita has fallen dramatically from 83 percent of the U.S. average in 1960 to 74 percent in 2000. The education system in (from high school to college completion) fails to retain Hispanics and Native Americans at nearly the rate of s and Asians. These racial/ethnic disparities are also evident in the graduation rates of baccalaureate students. Unless these inequities are addressed, current disparities in educational attainment and the population projections by race/ethnicity indicate that will lose even more ground in the percentage of its workforce that is college-educated. The most substantial growth will occur in the less than high school and high school only populations. A similar trend is projected for personal income. s personal income per capita will decline relative to other states which will also have a negative impact on the tax base of and its ability to provide services to its citizens namely higher education. Prepared by the National Center for Higher Education Management Systems with Support from the Lumina Foundation for Education 7