New York State Profile

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1 As America Becomes More Diverse: The Impact of State Higher Education Inequality State Profile Questions You Should Ask How educated is s adult population and workforce? How does compare to the national average, the most educated states, and the most educated countries? What are the disparities in educational attainment, participation and completion in higher education, and personal income by gender and race/ethnicity? How is the demographic composition of expected to change? How will expected changes in demography given current disparities in education and personal income affect the overall educational attainment and personal income of? Prepared by the National Center for Higher Education Management Systems with Support from the Lumina Foundation for Education

2 The Impact of State Higher Education Inequality State Profile Racial/Ethnic Composition of s Working Age Population (Ages 25 to 64) from 1980 to ,000,000 6,000,000 6,502,440 African-American 6,587,435 6,330,812 Hispanic/Latino 5,000,000 Native American/AK Native Asian/Pacific Islander 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000, ,063, ,020 1,318,353 1,097,875 1,434,924 1,457, , ,440 18,040 25,069 29, ,403 Educational Attainment of 25 to 64 Year Olds in 2000 (All Races) 45% 35% 41.3% WV US Average Highest State 25% 22.4% 26.4% 27.8% 22.3% 29.9% UT 23.2% 15% 17.4% 16.1% MS 17.9% 8.3% 7.2% 11.6% ND 17.3% 17.1% CO 12.7% 9.4% 15.1% MA 5% Less than High School High School/No College Some College Associates Bachelor's Graduate and Professional Sources: US Census Bureau s Public Use Microdata Samples (Based on the 1990 and 2000 Census ) 1

3 Disparities in Educational Attainment by Gender and Race/Ethnicity LEGEND African-American Hispanic/Latino Native American/AK Native Asian/Pacific Islander Educational Attainment of 25 to 64 Year Olds (Working Age) Percent with a Bachelor s Degree or Higher by Gender and Race/Ethnicity Percent with an Associates Degree or Higher by Gender and Race/Ethnicity Sources: US Census Bureau s Public Use Microdata Samples (Based on the 1980, 1990, and 2000 Census ) Note: Associate Degree Data not Available for Educational Attainment of 25 to 34 Year Olds (The Young Workforce) Percent with a Bachelor s Degree or Higher By Gender and Race/Ethnicity Percent with an Associates Degree or Higher By Gender and Race/Ethnicity Sources: US Census Bureau s Public Use Microdata Samples (Based on the 1980, 1990, and 2000 Census ) Note: Associate Degree Data not Available for

4 Educational Attainment by Gender and Race/Ethnicity (25 to 34 Year Olds Continued) LEGEND African-American Hispanic/Latino Native American/AK Native Asian/Pacific Islander Educational Attainment of 25 to 34 Year Olds (The Young Workforce) Indexed to the Top Country Indexed to the Top Country Percent with a Bachelor s Degree or Higher By Gender and Race/Ethnicity Indexed to the Top Country Percent with an Associates Degree or Higher By Gender and Race/Ethnicity Top Country (Canada) 1.0 Top Country (Norway) 0.8 US Index = US Index = WM WF BM BF HM HF NAM NAF APM APF Sources: US Census Bureau s Public Use Microdata Samples (Based on the 2000 Census) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Personal Income 1 s Personal Income Per Capita as a Percent of the US Average (1960 to 2000) % 119.3% % US Average Source: US Census Bureau s Current Population Survey (1960, 1970, 1980,1990, and 2000) 3

5 Higher Education Participation and Completion by Race/Ethnicity LEGEND African-American Hispanic/Latino Native American/AK Native Asian/Pacific Islander Representation (%) of Race/Ethnic Groups at Each Stage of the Education Pipeline (2002) % 67% 63% 61% 64% 67% 65% 5 17% 18 % 6% 16 % 15% 14 % 14 % 12 % 11% 12 % 12 % 7% 7% 7% 5% 11% 12 % 9% 8% 8% 7% 18 Year Olds High School Graduates First-Time Freshmen Sources: US Census Bureau (18 Year Olds), Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (HS Graduates), and the National Center for Education Statistics (College Participation and Completion) All Other Undergraduates Associate Degrees Awarded Bachelor's Degrees Awarded Graduation Rates by Race/Ethnicity (2002) All Credentials and Degrees Awarded Actual vs. Parity Difference in the Percentage of Credentials Awarded and the Percentage of 18 Year Olds by Race/Ethnicity (2002) Three-Year Graduation Rates for Associate Students US Average 29.1% 31.8% % -5.6% % -9.1% 22.4% Six-Year Graduation Rates for Bachelor s Students -0.1% US Average 54.3% 60.1% 1.3% 34.9% 37.6% - -5% 5% Sources: US Census Bureau (18 Year Olds), Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (HS Graduates), and the National Center for Education Statistics (College Participation and Completion) % 6 8 Source: National Center for Education Statistics (IPEDS Graduation Rate Survey) 4

6 The Impact of Changing Demographics on Educational Attainment and Personal Income (2000 to 2020) Projected changes in educational attainment and personal income per capita are based on the US Census Bureau s population projections by age and race/ethnicity and 2000 educational attainment and personal income data by age and race/ethnicity. The analyses are designed to help answer the following question: Given current disparities in educational attainment and personal income by age and race/ethnicity, how will the changing demographics in my state impact the overall educational attainment and personal income of the adult population? Projected Change in 25 to 64 Year Olds by Race/Ethnicity (from 2000 to 2020) 7,000,000 6,000,000 6,330,812 5,692,153 African-American Hispanic/Latino 5,000,000 Native American/AK Native Asian/Pacific Islander 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,434,924 1,512,909 1,457,240 2,000,794 1,000, , , ,971 35, Changes in Educational Attainment as a Result of the Projected Changes In Race/Ethnicity (25 to 64 Year Olds from 2000 to 2020) Less than High School Associates High School Bachelor s Some College Graduate/Professional 26.4% 25.9% 17.1% 19.2% % 17.3% 16.9% 12.9% 12.4% 8.3% Sources: US Census Bureau s Population Projections (from 1995 to 2025) and Census

7 The Impact of Changing Demographics on Educational Attainment and Personal Income (2000 to 2020) - Continued Number Change in Adults 25 to 64 by Degree Level from 2000 to 2020 Change in Per Capita Personal Income from 2000 to 2020 (In 2000 $) 300, , ,109 Less than High School High School $40,000 US Average Top State 200,000 Some College Associates $30,000 $28,869 $27, ,000 Bachelor s Graduate/Professional $20,000 $23,404 $21,591 $22,222 $21, ,000 50,000 41,184 $10,000 23,007 10, ,652-10,045 $0-50, Source: US Census Bureau s Population Projections and Census 2000 Source: US Census Bureau s Population Projections and Census 2000 If Hispanics/Latinos, African-Americans, and Native Americans achieved the same levels of education as s by 2020, s personal income would increase by $24.3 Billion (in 2000 $). Note: Does not account for racial/ethnic disparities in personal earnings for the same levels of education. 6

8 The Impact of State Higher Education Inequality Summary All minority populations grew in from 1980 to 2000 with the majority of growth among Hispanics and Asians. The population declined over the two decades. The same trends are expected from 2000 to The workforce has slightly more college degrees than the nation as a whole and substantially less than the most educated states. A relatively high percentage of 25 to 64 year olds (17%) have less than a high school education and 16 percent of the younger population ages 25 to 34 have less than a high school diploma. have made progress in educational attainment relative to males but sizable disparities still exist among racial/ethnic populations. The difference between the two largest populations ( and Hispanic) is among the largest of any state. Only 18 percent of Hispanics have attained college degrees compared to 45 percent of s. Only Asians and s exceed the most educated country in the percentage of adults (ages 25 to 34) with a bachelor s degree and the percentage with a college degree (associate and higher) which is an important consideration in an increasingly global economy. s personal income per capita has fallen slightly from 123 percent of the U.S. average in 1960 to 118 percent in The education system in (from high school to college completion) fails to retain Hispanics and African-Americans at nearly the rate of s. These racial/ethnic disparities are also evident in the graduation rates of associate and baccalaureate students. Unless these inequities are addressed, current disparities in educational attainment and the population projections by race/ethnicity indicate that will lose ground in the percentage of its workforce that is college-educated. Nearly all of the growth will occur in the less than high school population. A similar trend is projected for personal income. s personal income per capita will decline relative to other states which will also have a negative impact on the tax base and its ability to provide services to its citizens namely higher education. Prepared by the National Center for Higher Education Management Systems with Support from the Lumina Foundation for Education 7