THE TUITION EQUITY EFFECT: MEASURING THE IMPACT OF PROVIDING IN-STATE TUITION RATES FOR COLORADO S UNDOCUMENTED HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES

Transcription

1 THE TUITION EQUITY EFFECT: MEASURING THE IMPACT OF PROVIDING IN-STATE TUITION RATES FOR COLORADO S UNDOCUMENTED HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES BY ELISE KEATON, MARIJA WEEDEN, MATT SUNDEEN AND JIM JACOBS PREPARED DECEMBER 2008 BY FOR HEAA Higher Education Access Alliance

2 PAGE 2 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This report was made possible through generous contributions from Public Interest Projects, The Colorado Communities for Public Education Reform (CPER) and Jared Polis. CPER funders include the Annie E. Casey Foundation/Making Connections Denver, Division of Housing and Neighborhood Development Block Grant Program of the City and County of Denver, Denver Foundation, Donnell-Kay Foundation, Piton Foundation and Rose Community Foundation. The authors would also like to thank Mark Eddy of Mark Eddy Communications for his thoughtful insights and Stylus Creative for completing the design of this project in a very thorough, creative and timely manner. TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS INTRODUCTION HIGHER EDUCATION PRODUCES INDIVIDUAL, FAMILY AND COMMUNITY SUCCESS Education, Wealth and Health Educated Farents and Family Success Education Critical for Communities SHIFTING DEMOGRAPHIC DEMANDS NEW POLICY Colorado s New Diversity THE TUITION EQUITY EFFECT ON STATES Dropout Rates College Enrollment Educational Attainment and Income Fiscal Impact of Tuition Equity CONCLUSION LINKS TO ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REFERENCES ENDNOTES

3 PAGE 3 FIGURES, TABLES AND APPENDICIES Figure 1: Cigarette Use by Adults 25 Years and Over Table 1: Participation in Various Leisure Activities (2002) Table 2: Children 3 to 5 Years Old Not Yet Enrolled in Kindergarten Who Participated in Home Literacy Activities with a Family Member by Activity and Mother s Education Level (2005) Table 3: Cognitive Skills of Preschool Children Ages 3-5, by Mother s Education Level (2005) Figure 2: Average Reading and Math Scale Scores by Age of Student and Parents Education Level (2004) Figure 3: SAT Score Averages of College-Bound Seniors by Parents Educational Level ( ) Table 4: Reading to Children by any Family Member by Child s Age & Designated Parent s Education Level (2003) Table 5: Percentage of Students in K-8 who Participated in After-School Activities by Parents Highest Education Level (2005) Figure 4: Voting and Registration (2004) Figure 5: Distribution of Adults Age 25+ Volunteering ( ) Figure 6: Percentage of Adults Age 25+ Participating in Public Assistance Programs (2005) Table 6: U.S. Census Bureau Projections, Table 7: Share of Foreign-Born Population Total and Share of Foreign-Born Population from Mexico (2006) Table 8: Hispanic Share of Total Population (2006) Figure 7: Colorado Demographic Changes, Population 18 Years and Younger, Table 9: Colorado Population Projections, Figure 8: California Hispanic Percentage of Student Body and Dropouts Figure 9: Illinois Dropout Rates by Ethnicity Figure 10: Kansas Dropout Rates by Ethnicity, Grades 7-12 Figure 11: New Mexico Dropout Rates by Ethnicity Figure 12: Texas Hispanic Percentage of Student Population and Dropout Rates Figure 13: Washington Hispanic Percentage of Student Population and Dropout Rates Table 10: Colorado Pupil Membership by Ethnicity 1987, 1996, 2001, 2006 and 2007 Table 11: Colorado Dropout Rates by Ethnicity Table 12: Colorado Graduation Rates by Ethnicity Figure 14: Colorado Public High School Graduate Projections, Table 13: Colorado Ranking in Kids Count Comparisons Table 14: University of California System AB 540 Recipients by Documentation Status Table 15: Enrollment in Texas Public Universities, Health-Related Institutions Community, Technical and State Colleges, Under HB 1403 and SB 1528 Table 16: Washington State Enrollments Under HB 1079 Figure 15: Colorado Undergraduate Student Demographics by Race/Ethnicity Table 17: Median Family Income: Total and Mexican Populations Table 18: Median Household Income Increases, Appendix A: Enacted State Tuition Equity Laws

4 PAGE 4 PAGE 4 INTRODUCTION EDUCATION IS ESSENTIAL FOR BOTH INDIVIDUAL AND COMMUNITY SUCCESS. Most research confirms that family income, health, nutrition, and dozens of other quality of life measures, directly correlate with educational achievement. As a person s education improves, so does the likelihood that they will make more money, enjoy better health and live a higher quality of life. All of these have a positive impact on society as a whole individual success translates into stronger communities. People who make more money and live healthier, longer lives, buy more goods, pay more income and sales taxes, engage in more civic activities and use public assistance less frequently. Colorado, like all states, promotes higher education for its residents by making it more affordable for its qualified high school graduates to attend public colleges and universities. Tuition rates for Colorado s in-state students are considerably less at state schools than rates for students classified as outof-state. In addition, most Colorado high school graduates can qualify for a variety of state and federal financial aid packages and assistance from the state s College Opportunity Fund (COF). These benefits, however, do not extend to all of Colorado s high school graduates. Under current law, undocumented students those who cannot prove lawful presence in the United States cannot qualify for in-state tuition rates, COF or other state or federal financial aid programs even if they would be otherwise eligible. As a consequence, postsecondary education for Colorado s undocumented students is almost always unaffordable, and most do not pursue an education beyond high school. Nationally it s estimated that 65,000 undocumented students graduate from high school each year but do not attend college for this reason. 1 Many education advocates are urging Colorado lawmakers to make postsecondary education more affordable for the state s qualified but undocumented high school graduates through tuition equity legislation. Such legislation would allow all of Colorado s high school graduates to be classified as in-state students for tuition rate and financial aid purposes. The tuition equity concept, often referred to as the DREAM Act, is an idea that has been widely debated. Since 2001, lawmakers in Congress and 30 states have considered legislation that would allow certain qualified, but undocumented students, to be classified as in-state for tuition or financial aid purposes. Lawmakers in 10 states California, Illinois, Kansas, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, Oklahoma, Texas, Utah and Washington have enacted tuition equity measures. Unfortunately, much of the discussion about the merits of tuition equity legislation has been lost in the larger debate about national immigration policy. Opponents argue that public colleges and universities should deny undocumented students access to in-state tuition rates and financial aid because they are essentially living in the United States unlawfully. Advocates for such access, however, counter that tuition equity is really about education, not immigration. Only by making college more affordable for undocumented immigrants, advocates argue, can Colorado fully realize the public and private benefits from postsecondary education. In August, 2008 the Higher Education Access Alliance (HEAA) released the first of two reports that examined tuition equity as a potential policy remedy for Colorado. The Part 1 study, Tuition

5 PAGE 5 PAGE 5 Equity Legislation: Investing in Colorado High School Graduates through Equal Opportunity to Postsecondary Education, framed the tuition equity debate for Colorado lawmakers. It examined the rationale for tuition equity legislation, analyzed federal and state efforts to enact tuition equity laws, summarized arguments for and against the proposal, and provided Colorado-specific recommendations for action. The report found that Colorado is home to a significant undocumented student population and it is crucial for the state to improve educational opportunities for this community. 2 The report suggests that a Colorado tuition equity law would promote economic growth and vitality, reduce reliance on public assistance, increase public revenues, help the state capitalize on its K-12 investment in undocumented students, lower dropout rates and improve educational outcomes. It also concludes that improved educational access for undocumented students will create and stronger, more civically engaged communities, generate higher revenues for public colleges and universities, and enhance Colorado s regional and global competitiveness. 3 This Part 2 report, The Tuition Equity Effect, complements and supports the findings presented in Part 1. It provides a detailed and comprehensive analysis of tuition equity needs and the potential benefits for Colorado. The report examines national demographic trends and the impact these trends will have on Colorado s decisions about education policy. It also examines data about college enrollment, dropout rates, income levels and overall well being of communities and specifically compares Colorado with the 10 states that have enacted tuition equity laws. The report demonstrates that Colorado s changing demographic will require a corresponding change in the state s higher education policy. Colorado could suffer economically if it does not pass some form of tuition equity; State tuition equity laws can have a positive effect on Colorado. For instance, people with higher levels of education tend to live healthier lives, engage less in risky behavior such as smoking and are less likely to need publicly financed health care services; Early data from 10 states that have passed tuition equity laws indicate that dropout rates, a major concern in Colorado, have slowed among affected communities; Tuition equity prompts higher college enrollment. While there might be a loss of revenue on the one hand as a small number of students are moved from out-of-state status to in-state, that dip should be offset as more students who never would have been able to afford college are enrolled. Spiros Protopsaltis, Ph.D. President, Center for Policy Entrepreneurship Matt Sundeen Director of Policy and Research, Center for Policy Entrepreneurship The report makes several key findings. It documents in detail the substantive correlation between higher education and individual, family and community success. For example, people with higher education generally have higher paying jobs than those who don t and pay more money in federal, state and local taxes;

6 PAGE 6 HIGHER EDUCATION PRODUCES INDIVIDUAL, FAMILY AND COMMUNITY SUCCESS Multiple researchers have studied the impacts of higher education. Nearly all have found that improvements in postsecondary education directly correlate with individual, family and community success. Just as the negative actions of one person impact society, positive individual outcomes affect the well-being of others making it impossible to separate benefits to individuals from benefits to society as a whole. 4 The following sections summarize various correlations between increased educational attainment and the positive impacts that result in our communities. Education, Wealth and Health As one s educational achievement increases there are positive personal benefits that result including personal wealth and better health. Higher levels of education result in higher earning levels and related advantages. 5 For instance, as levels of education increase, so do instances of home ownership. More than 80 percent of individuals with a graduate or professional degree own their own homes compared with only 56 percent of individuals with less than a 9th grade education and only 68 percent of individuals with a high school diploma or a GED. 6 In 2005, only 3.6 percent of bachelor s degree earners were living in poverty compared with 10.8 percent of high school graduates. 7 Education and increased wealth also improve individual health. In 2005, the proportion of college graduates with health insurance was 16 percent higher than the proportion for high school graduates. 8 Smoking levels among adults age 25 and older also decreased as levels of education increase. An estimated 47.5 percent of male and 38.8 percent of female GED earners smoked compared with 11.9 percent of males and 9.6 percent of females with bachelor s degrees. The numbers dropped even more significantly for those with advanced degrees, only 6.9 percent of males and 7.4 percent of females in that category classified themselves as smokers (Figure 1). 9 The health benefits that result from increased levels of education extend beyond decreased instances of smoking. Specifically, studies have found that Figure 1: Cigarette Use by Adults 25 Years and Over 50% 40% Male Female 30% 20% 10% 0% Less than High School GED High School Graduate Some College, No Degree Associate s Degree Bachelor s Degree Advanced Degree Source: Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 2005

7 PAGE 7 as education levels increase so does involvement in healthy activities such as exercise, sports and gardening (Table 1). At every income level and at every age, higher levels of education are positively correlated with better health. 10 Educated Parents and Family Success Increased education levels of parents result in positive effects on their children. As shown in Tables 2 and 3 and Figures 2 and 3, children whose parents have at least some college education have higher cognitive levels, better scores in math and reading tests, and higher standardized test scores than peers whose parents have only achieved at or below a high school diploma. Table 1: Participation in Various Leisure Activities (2002) 11 Less Than HS HS Graduate Some College College Graduate Graduate School Exercise program 32.7% 45.6% 62.3% 73.2% 77.3% Playing sports 17.2% 22.6% 35.2% 45.2% 43.6% Charity work 12.5% 20.2% 33.1% 42.6% 53.1% Home improvement/repair 24.9% 35.6% 46.5% 56.0% 61.6% Gardening 31.2% 43.8% 49.6% 56.1% 63.3% Source: United States Census Bureau, 2008 Statistical Abstract Table 2: Children 3 to 5 Years Old Not Yet Enrolled in Kindergarten Who Participated in Home Literacy Activities with a Family Member by Activity and Mother s Education Level (2005) Less Than HS HS Graduate Vocational Ed or Some College College Degree Graduate/Professional Training or Degree Read to 64% 82% 88% 92% 94% Told a story 39% 51% 57% 56% 64% Taught Letters, words, or numbers 70% 78% 79% 75% 76% Visited a library 23% 33% 45% 52% 60% United States Census Bureau, 2007 Statistical Abstract

8 PAGE 8 PAGE 8 Table 3: Cognitive Skills of Preschool Children Ages 3-5, by Mother s Education Level (2005) 12 Less Than HS HS Graduate Some College, No Degree Bachelor s Degree Master s Degree or Higher Recognize Letters 9% 19% 27% 37% 35.0% Count to 20 31% 55% 67% 71% 75.0% Write Name 50% 54% 60% 65% 68.0% Read or Pretend to Read Storybooks 40% 64% 76% 82% 81.0% Source: College Board, Education Pays: The Benefits of Higher Education for Individuals and Society Figure 2: Average Reading and Math Scale Scores by Age of Student and Parents Education Level (2004) Reading 13 years old Reading 17 years old Math 13 years old Math 17 years old Less than High School High School Graduate Some Education After High School College Graduate Source: U.S. Department of Education, 2005

9 PAGE 9 Table 4: Reading to Children by any Family Member by Child s Age & Designated Parent s Education Level (2003) 15 Percent never read to last week Percent of children read to 7 or more times per week Average times read to child per week /1 1 and 2 years 3 to 5 years 1 and 2 years 3 to 5 years 1 and 2 years 3 to 5 years Less than high school 22.6% 18.4% 35.2% 35.3% 6.7% 5.7% High school graduate 11.2% 6.6% 42.1% 44.8% 6.9% 6.3% Some college 6.6% 4.8% 51.7% 47.1% 7.6% 6.5% Vocational/Associate degree 9.4% 5.7% 54.7% 52.7% 7.6% 6.8% Bachelor s degree 4.3% 3.0% 68.3% 61.9% 9.6% 7.9% Advanced degree 3.9% 1.1% 62.4% 70.4% 7.9% 8.5% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Survey of Income and Program Participation Education Critical for Communities Communities benefit from increased educational attainment. Higher education levels result in higher tax revenues for federal, state and local governments because earning levels increase with education. Those with master s degrees earn nearly twice as much as high school graduates and that number increases to nearly three times as much for professional degree earners. 17 Additionally, median earnings for those with some college were 18 Figure 3: SAT Score Averages of College-Bound Seniors by Parents Educational Level ( ) Less than HS Verbal score Mathematics score HS Graduate Associate s Degree Bachelor s Degree Graduate Degree Source: U.S. Department of Education, 2005 percent higher than earnings for those with only a high school diploma and that number grows to 29 percent more for associate degree holders. 18 However, although increased earnings offer insight into the community benefits of higher education, a more telling indicator of that benefit is how individual opinions change as education improves. Perceptions of women and involvement in civic activities change significantly as education levels increase. In 2004, 38 percent of those with only a grade school education perceived women as having an equal role in business, industry and government as men. Approximately 39 percent of that same group saw a woman s place as in the home. The number of those who see women having an equal role jumped significantly upon graduation from high school (75 percent) and college (86 percent). And the number of those who perceived women s place in the home fell to only 8 percent for high school graduates and 5 percent for college graduates. 19 Additionally, higher levels of education have been shown to lead to more engaged citizens, which leads to a healthier democracy. Educational achievement increases general interest and awareness of public affairs, engagement in the political process, voting and the number of those who volunteer increases as well. The following charts demonstrate that education has a large impact on

10 PAGE 10 Table 5: Percentage of Students in K-8 Who Participated in After-School Activities by Parents Highest Education Level (2005) 16 Less than HS HS Graduate Some college Vocational Associate Degree Bachelor s degree Advanced degree Any 8% 27% 42% 59% 67% 8% Academic Activities 1% 4% 8% 8% 10% 1% Arts 2% 8% 15% 25% 35% 2% Clubs 0% 3% 5% 8% 11% 0% Community Service 1% 4% 8% 12% 14% 1% Religious Activities 3% 12% 19% 28% 30% 3% Scouts 1% 5% 9% 16% 16% 1% Sports 5% 18% 28% 44% 52% 5% Source: College Board, 2007 these areas, and is therefore a significant tool to increase civic engagement. In the 2006 congressional election, only 27.2 percent of females and 30.7 percent of males with less than a high school diploma voted. Comparatively, over 60 percent of both males and females with bachelor s degrees voted (Figure 4). Another benefit to communities is increased volunteerism. Not only are those with higher levels of education more likely to vote and feel that they have the right and ability to influence public affairs, they are also more likely to volunteer. For adults age 25 and older, only 9.3 percent of high school dropouts volunteered in 2005 and 2006 compared with 19.2 percent of high school graduates, 30.9 percent of those with some college and 43.3 percent of college graduates (Figure 5). As education improves, reliance on public assistance programs such as Medicaid, school lunch programs and food stamps decreases proportionately. Thirty-four percent of high school dropouts rely on Medicaid compared to only 6 percent of those with a bachelor s degree or higher. Only 6 percent of those with some college education depend on school lunch programs while 17 percent of those without a high school diploma seek this assistance. One percent of college degree earners rely on food stamps, compared to 14 percent of those who never finished high school (Figure 6). Additionally, college-educated workers are more likely than others to be offered pension plans and participation rates for those plans are higher for individuals with increased levels of education. 22 These data indicate that as educational levels increase less of the state s budget is spent per person on meeting basic needs. Additional benefits to the community include increased consumer spending. In 2005, individuals with less than a high school diploma spent significantly less on housing, transportation and annual expenditures combined ($41,978) than those with an Associate Degree ($74,962), Bachelor s Degree ($92,048) or Advanced Degree ($108,087). 24 Increased education leads to increased spending and increased revenue in our communities.

11 PAGE 11 Figure 4: Voting and Registration (2004) 20 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 30.7% 27.2% 38.1% 42.8% 48.5% 50.2% 61.7% 60.7% 70.9% 68.3% 72.3% 69.9% Less Than 9th Grade Male Female High School Graduate Some College/ Associate Degree Bachelor s Degree Advanced Degree Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, November 2006 Figure 5: Distribution of Adults Age 25+ Volunteering ( ) 21 Figure 6: Percentage of Adults Age 25+ Participating in Public Assistance Programs (2005) 23 45% 40% 35% 40% 35% 30% Medicaid School Lunch Food Stamps 30% 25% 25% 20% 20% 15% 15% 10% 10% 5% 9.3% 19.2% 30.9% 43.3% Less Than HS Graduate HS Graduate Less Than Bachelor s Degree College Graduate Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Statistical Abstract of the United States, % 0% Less Than HS Graduate HS Graduate Some College, No Degree Associate Degree Bachelor s Degree or Higher Source: College Board, 2007

12 PAGE 12 SHIFTING DEMOGRAPHIC DEMANDS NEW POLICY The United States is a country of immigrants. Data indicate that the immigrant population in the U.S., including undocumented immigrants, is significant and will continue to grow in the coming decades. Although it is difficult to measure the actual number of undocumented children in the U.S., Hispanic youth are one of the fastest growing segments of the U.S. population and are projected to contribute to two-thirds of the growth in the nation s high school population. 25 States must adjust education policies to adapt to the demographic shift. Current projections show significant diversification of the nation s population by The U.S. Census Bureau projects that population growth and other changes will result in decreased percentages of non-minority populations and significant increases in current minority populations. The non-hispanic, single-race white population will continue to decrease and will comprise only 46 percent of the total population in It is expected, however, that minorities, currently about one-third of the nation s population, will increase their share from 35 percent in 2010 to 45 percent by 2030 and will become the majority representing 54 percent of the population by More significant for education policy is the number of K-12 students that will be represented by minority populations in the coming years. Of the total population, minorities will represent 45 percent of individuals under the age of 18 in 2010 and are estimated to represent 49 percent of the under 18 population by This segment of the population will exceed 54 percent by 2030 and 62 percent by 2050 (Table 6). The largest demographic shift among various ethnic classifications is projected to be made by the Hispanic population. 28 The Hispanic population is projected to increase from 16 percent of the current national population to 23 percent in They are expected to represent over 30 percent to the total population of the U.S. by This reflects a significantly larger increase than the nation s African-American population which is projected to grow only slightly from less than 14 percent in 2010 to 15 percent by Although it is expected that the Asian population will nearly double, from 5 percent in 2010 to over 9 percent in 2050, that rate of growth is still significantly smaller than that of the Hispanic population (Table 6). Table 6: U.S. Census Bureau Projections, White 81.0% 79.9% 79.0% 78.1% 77.3% Black 13.6% 14.0% 14.3% 14.7% 15.0% Asian 5.3% 6.3% 7.3% 8.3% 9.2% Hispanic 16.0% 19.4% 23.0% 26.7% 30.3% Minority under % 49.0% 54.0% 58.0% 62.0% Minority all ages 35.0% 40.0% 45.0% 49.0% 54.0% SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, Released Aug. 14, 2008 The foreign-born population represented 12.5 percent of the total population in the United States in Nationally, it is estimated that nearly one-third (30.8 percent) of the foreign-born population is made up of immigrants from Mexico (Table 7). In states that have enacted tuition equity laws, the general population of foreign-born individuals ranged from only 4.9 percent in Oklahoma to over 27 percent in California (Table 7). Many of the states that have chosen to address tuition equity often have large Hispanic populations. Nationally, Hispanics accounted for nearly 14 percent, or more than one in seven, of the country s population in Forty-eight percent of all Hispanics in the United States lived in California and Texas in Among the ten tuition equity states, Hispanics accounted for 44 percent of New Mexico s population and about 36 percent for both California and Texas. The ten tuition equity states are home to more than 75 percent of Hispanics in the nation (Table 8).

13 PAGE 13 Table 7: Share of Foreign-Born Population Total and Share of Foreign- Born Population from Mexico (2006) Foreign-Born Colorado s New Diversity FB Mexico United States 12.5% 30.8% Colorado 10.2% 52.3% Tuition Equity States California 27.1% 44.4% Illinois 13.8% 40.4% Kansas 6.2% 48.2% Nebraska 5.6% 41.5% New Mexico 9.9% 73.3% New York 21.6% 5.5% Oklahoma 4.9% 47.0% Texas 15.8% 62.9% Utah 8.3% 49.8% Washington 12.5% 26.1% Source: Pew Hispanic Center, Statistical Portrait of the Foreign- Born Population of the U.S. January 2008, Tables 10 and 12 During the past quarter century the most significant ethnic change in Colorado has been the growth of the Hispanic population. The number of Hispanics in the state rose from 339,717 in 1980 to 883,408 in 2006, which shifted the Hispanic share of Colorado s population from 11.8 percent to 18.4 percent. According to the Colorado Demography Office, between 1980 and 2006, Colorado s African American population grew only slightly from 3.5 percent to 4.0 percent. Colorado s population with Asian ethnic origins grew from 1.0 percent to 2.7 percent, and the non-hispanic white population fell from 82.7 percent to 73.9 percent. While the rate of growth for Hispanics has greatly exceeded statewide growth rates during the past 25 years, the population under 18 years of age has grown faster. From 1980 to 2006 the Hispanic population under the age of 18 increased from Table 8: Hispanic Share of Total Population (2006) United States 14.8% Tuition Equity States New Mexico 44.0% California 35.9% Texas 35.7% Colorado 19.7% New York 16.3% Illinois 13.7% Utah 11.2% Washington 9.1% Kansas 8.6% Nebraska 7.4% Oklahoma 6.8% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, percent to 25.4 percent, while the Hispanic population over 18 grew from a little less then 10 percent to 16 percent. This trend holds true for the other minority groups in Colorado. Figure 7 shows demographic changes for the 18-year and younger population for 1980, 1990, 2000 and The Colorado State Demography Office prepared a set of population projections through The state demographers estimate that Colorado s population will increase from 5.2 million in 2010 to nearly 7.4 million by They project the white, non-hispanic population proportion to decline from 73 percent in 2010 to 69 percent in 2030; while the state s Hispanic population is projected to grow from 19 percent in 2010 to nearly 23 percent in Colorado s African-American population is estimated to increase slightly from 4.1 percent to 4.4 percent and the Asian population should remain constant, inching up from 2.8 percent to 2.9 percent for the 20-year period. The overall minority population is projected to account for 31 percent of Colorado s population in 2030, up from 27 percent in Table 9 shows Colorado population projections from 2010 through 2030 by ethnicity as

14 PAGE 14 developed by the Colorado Demography Office. The national and statewide demographic shift has important implications for Colorado s education policy. Although it is nearly impossible to calculate the actual number of undocumented students present in the U.S., we can conclude that the population is significant and will continue to grow. Minorities will make up nearly half of the population of individuals under the age of 18 by 2020, and many children of those immigrants will enroll in and attend public K-12 schools. Colorado must enact policies that consider the educational needs of these students. Figure 7: Colorado Demographic Changes, Population 18 Years and Younger, % 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Other Non-Hispanic Asian Non-Hispanic Black Hispanic Non-Hispanic White Source: United States Census Bureau Table 9: Colorado Population Projections, White, Non-Hispanic 3, , ,099.2 Hispanic 1, , ,674.9 Black, Non-Hispanic Asian, Non-Hispanic Am. Indian, NH Total (in thousands) 5, , , White, Non-Hispanic 72.9% 71.3% 69.0% Hispanic 19.2% 20.5% 22.7% Black, Non-Hispanic 4.1% 4.3% 4.4% Asian, Non-Hispanic 2.8% 2.8% 2.9% Am. Indian, NH 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% Total Percent Minority 27.1% 28.7% 31.0% Source: Colorado Demography Office

15 PAGE 15 THE TUITION EQUITY EFFECT ON STATES Tuition equity is a concept that has been developed through both national and state activity. Although Congress has not yet amended federal requirements to allow undocumented students greater access to higher education, ten states have made such changes. The full impact of these laws, however, is difficult to measure. State action has occurred only since 2000, and most state tuition equity laws are not old enough to allow a meaningful collection of data about their effect. Additionally, state data collection practices differ. Many states have not analyzed the effects of tuition equity laws and most statistics do not specifically track data for undocumented immigrants. Despite these challenges, however, some tuition equity impacts are already apparent. This section examines existing data and attempts to measure the results of tuition equity laws in four specific categories: high school dropout rates, college enrollment, educational attainment and income levels, and the fiscal impact on the state. Although it is very difficult to isolate effects on the undocumented immigrant population, data for the Foreign-Born, Hispanic or Mexican-heritage population are often used by analysts to get approximate results. In the 10 tuition equity states, statistics for these populations seem to indicate that tuition equity laws positively affected dropout rates, college enrollment, educational attainment and income with minimal or no fiscal impact on the state. Additionally, the data seem to show that tuition equity laws do not have a negative affect on citizen students or those students that are lawfully present in the U.S. In some examples, tuition equity laws may have positively affected these students. 30 Specifically, tuition equity policies have had a negligible effect on the college enrollment of U.S.- born persons, but a modestly positive and statistically significant effect on their college education. 31 Although the increase in college enrollment for non-citizen, Mexican youth and young adults is significant for that population, it is not so drastic as to narrow the attainment gap between noncitizens and natives. 32 Thus, while the impact of these laws may be significant for portions of the population and individuals, the impact on college enrollment as a whole remains largely unaffected. Dropout Rates Many education advocates have argued that because the college costs are prohibitively high, many undocumented students lose hope for education and drop out of school before they complete a high school degree. National dropout statistics seem to support this contention. Hispanic students are the most likely to dropout of school, doing so at a rate of 8.9 percent. By comparison, African-American students are the next most likely to dropout with a 5.7 percent dropout rate. The dropout rate for white Caucasian students is 3.7 percent, and for students who are Asian or of Pacific Islander descent it is 1.2 percent. 33 Tuition equity advocates argue that by making college more affordable for undocumented students, states can reduce dropout rates. Unfortunately, the tuition equity effect on dropout rates is difficult to measure. States calculate their dropout rates differently, and because the oldest tuition equity laws were passed in 2001, little longitudinal data is available. Despite these challenges, however, initial assessments seem to indicate that tuition equity laws may have slowed the dropout rates for undocumented students and closed the dropout rate gap between Hispanic students and other students. CALIFORNIA California lawmakers passed a tuition equity law in Assembly Bill 540 allows eligibility for instate tuition at state colleges and universities based upon three years of attendance at a California high school, and graduation or completion of a GED. Additionally, the law requires that students must show proof that they are working towards citizenship through an application with the United States Immigration and Naturalization Service. 34 Students who attempt to qualify for in-state tuition through this method are commonly referred to as AB 540 students. These students are not eligible for financial aid. As is true nationally, California s minority students drop out of school at a higher rate then white, non- Hispanic students. 35 During the school

16 PAGE 16 year, California experienced an overall dropout rate of 2.7 percent. African-American students had the highest dropout rates, 4.8 percent, and Hispanic students followed with a 3.7 percent dropout rate. After 2001, California s overall dropout rate rose to 4.2 percent in the school year. Although African-American students still experience the highest dropout rate at 7.3 percent, the rate for Hispanic students has fallen to the fourth lowest dropout rate of ethnic groups in the state. African-American, Pacific Island, American Indian and students with multiple ethnicities all have higher dropout rates than Hispanic students currently. Figure 8: California Hispanic Percentage of Student Body and Dropouts 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Hispanic dropouts Hispanic student body All minority groups, including Hispanics, are over represented within the population of students that dropout of California schools. However, since the passage of AB 540 this trend has slowed for Hispanic students. In the school year, Hispanic students represented 39.1 percent of the student body of California schools, but 52.9 percent of all dropouts. As of the school year Hispanic students represented 43.9 percent of the students and 54.3 percent of dropouts. Although the Hispanic share of both has grown, it has not done so at the same rate, and the data actually shows the first decrease in the Hispanic share of dropouts while continuing to increase their share of the student population. Thus, although California has not experienced a reversal in drop-out rates for Hispanics, they are seeing the percentage of dropouts and the percentage of the student body that is Hispanic come closer together (Figure 8). ILLINOIS Illinois enacted its tuition equity law in Much like California s law, students must have attended an Illinois high school for at least three years and have graduated or earned a GED. Additionally students are required to have applied for permanent legal citizenship at the earliest opportunity. 36 Students who apply for in-state tuition through this process are not eligible for financial aid. Since the passage of the Illinois tuition equity law, the state has experienced a consistent decline in dropout rates, including the rates of Hispanic dropouts. 37 As in other states, in the initial years following the enactment of tuition equity, dropout rates for Hispanic students decreased more rapidly than in the overall statewide dropout rate. Although Hispanic student dropout rates continue to be higher than rates for other ethnic groups, they are now much closer to the state average and appear to be moving closer to dropout rates for other students (Figure 9). Additionally, according to the Illinois State Board of Education, although Hispanic students have been and continue to be over represented among Illinois dropouts, 15.7 percent of the student population and 27.1 percent of dropouts in the school year, the years following tuition equity saw changes in these numbers as well. Between the and school years, Hispanic students went from making up 26.5 percent of dropouts to 25.4 percent. At the same time, the Hispanic share of the student population rose from 14.7 percent to 15.3 percent. Hispanic students are continuing to grow as a proportion of the Illinois student population and dropout rates did reflect that in the year by growing again, but as the tuition equity law matures there are signs that Hispanic students will be positively impacted. Source: California Department of Education. Data Quest: State Level Student Demographics: Dropouts

17 PAGE 17 Figure 9: Illinois Dropout Rates by Ethnicity 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% White Black American Indian Asian-Pacific Islander Hispanic Multiracial Statewide 0% Source: Illinois State Board of Education. End of Year Reports: High School Dropouts by Grade, Gender and Racial/Ethnic Category Figure 10: Kansas Dropout Rates by Ethnicity, Grades % 3% 2% 1% White Black American Indian Asian Hispanic Statewide 0% Source: Kansas State Department of Education, State Totals: Dropout/Graduation Reports KANSAS Kansas enacted its tuition equity law in According to the provisions, to qualify for in-state tuition students must have attended a Kansas high school for three years and graduated or earned a GED. Additionally, undocumented students must sign an affidavit stating that they have filed the necessary paper work to become a legal citizen. 38 In the school year immediately following the tuition equity enactment, Kansas experienced the lowest statewide dropout rates since the school year, and the lowest dropout rate of Hispanic students. 39 The decrease in the dropout rate of Hispanics between 2002 and 2005 was more drastic then the drop of any other ethnic group in the state and brought the Hispanic rate much closer to the state average. Since the low point in , every ethnic group in the state has experienced a growth

18 PAGE 18 in their dropout rates, but that of Hispanic students has been closer to moving with the state average then other groups (Figure 10). Noticeably, between the and school years, Hispanic dropout rate increased at a rate slower then that of the state as a whole. Although Hispanic students continue to drop out at a higher rate then Kansas students in general, and continue to be over represented in the dropout population, a continuation of the current conditions would begin to correct this. Additionally, White and American Indian students have not seen the same impact, but have actually seen their dropout rates increase faster then the state average. This may point to the stronger affect tuition equity is having on Hispanic students in seeing college as an option. NEW MEXICO New Mexico s tuition equity law passed in 2005 and varies from other states. According to New Mexico s provision, students can qualify for in-state tuition if they attend high school in New Mexico for one year and graduated or completed their GED. However, New Mexico also offers students access to state financial aid. 40 New Mexico s law is still relatively new and therefore difficult to measure in terms of impact on dropout rates. Early analysis, however, hints at similar results as in other states. Hispanic dropout rates fluctuated between 2004 and 2007, but they did reach a low in the school year and have dropped below the state average as of the school year. 41 Although African-American dropout rates also experienced the same fluctuation, with a low point in and growth in , the climb between these two years was much steeper for African-Americans and caused them to surpass Hispanics for the first time in the data set. Although the dropout rate for Hispanic students in New Mexico has not been consistent, there has been a steady decline in the percentage of dropouts who are Hispanic while the percentage of students who are Hispanic has steadily grown. In the school year, Hispanic students accounted for 60.3 percent of the dropouts in the state, but only 53.3 percent of the entire student body. In the school year this trend had reversed, with Hispanic students comprising 50.5 percent of the state s dropouts and 54.6 percent of the overall student population (Figure 11). Thus, while the dropout rates for Hispanic students do not appear to have been heavily influenced, they have been influenced enough to change the make up of the dropout population positively for Hispanic students. These numbers indicate that Hispanic students are graduating at a rate more consistent with demographics and possibly that Hispanic students are beginning to envision a better future in New Mexico. Figure 11: New Mexico Dropout Rates by Ethnicity 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% White Black Native American Asian Hispanic Overall 0% Source: New Mexico Public Education Department. Department, School Fact Sheets: Dropout.

19 PAGE 19 TEXAS Texas lawmakers enacted a tuition equity law in The legislation, HB 1403, allowed students to qualify for in-state tuition if the student resided in Texas with a parent or guardian for at least three years while attending high school and graduated from a Texas school or received their GED in Texas. It also required undocumented students to provide a signed affidavit indication their intent to apply for permanent resident status as soon as possible. In 2005, lawmakers amended the law. The measure, SB 1528, made in-state tuition available to all individuals who had lived in Texas a significant part of their lives. 42 Essentially, the changes meant that the law was not exclusively applied to non-immigrant students, but allowed citizens and permanent residents to receive in-state tuition rates through this process. The method for calculating dropout rates in Texas changed during the school year, and as a consequence, altered rates statewide. Because of the change in calculation practices, overall dropout statistics provide only marginal evidence that the Texas tuition equity law positively affected dropout rates for Hispanic students. Between 2001 and 2005, Hispanic dropout rates remained consistent at approximately 2 percent. 43 Before 2006, Hispanic students had the highest dropout rate of all evaluated ethnic groups. In the school year, dropout rates for Hispanic students dropped below the rates for African-American students. Since 2006, dropout rates for Hispanic students have correlated with changes in the state population (Figure 12). A more telling measure of the success of the Texas tuition equity law is the comparison of the percentage of Hispanics in the overall student population against the percentage of Hispanic students in the dropout population. Historically, Hispanic students have represented a disproportionate amount of the dropout population. In 2000, approximately 37 percent of the Texas K-12 student population was classified as Hispanic, a figure that grew to 42 percent by In comparison, approximately 53 percent of Texas dropouts were classified as Hispanic in 2000 and 58 percent of dropouts were Hispanic in 2007, a 16 percent difference. Although the percentage gap was the same in 2000 and in 2007, the number of Hispanic dropouts spiked before to Figure 12: Texas Hispanic Percentage of Student Population and Dropout Rates 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% the school year. In subsequent years, after the state tuition equity law had been fully implemented, data seem to show that Hispanic students are closing the dropout gap (Figure 12). The Texas data, which is one of the most long term data sets currently available after the passage of tuition equity, indicates the difficulty in making an assessment of success or failure in the years immediately following the enactment of a tuition equity law. There appears to have been a lag time in the state between passage of tuition equity and students beginning to change their view of graduating and college. If future data in other states show the same affect several years into the legislation then states that are already experiencing success will see results that may reverse trends towards higher dropout rates for Hispanics. WASHINGTON Hispanic dropouts Hispanic student population Source: Texas Education Agency, Completion, Graduation, and Dropout Rates Washington s tuition equity legislation was enacted in Its law, HB 1079, allows a student to qualify for in-state tuition if he or she has lived in Washington for three years immediately preceding graduation or attainment of a GED, lived in Washington continuously since earning his or her diploma or equivalency, and submits an affidavit to the college which demonstrates his or her intent to

20 PAGE 20 work towards permanent residency. 44 From 2001 through 2005, Washington experienced an overall decline in its dropout rate from 7.7 percent to 5.1 percent. Dropout rates for Hispanic students followed this trend, declining from 12.5 percent to 8.3 percent. From 2005 to 2006, dropout rates increased statewide by 0.6 percent. Some ethnic groups, such as African-American students, experienced a more dramatic rise in dropouts (3 percent) then the statewide average. The dropout rates for Hispanic students, however, remained consistent with the statewide average (Figure 13). As in other states, Hispanic students in Washington are disproportionately represented among dropouts. However, following the enactment of the state s tuition equity law, the gap has closed. Although Hispanic students have continued to steadily increase their share of the student population from 8.7 percent in 2001 to more than 10 percent in 2006, the growth in dropout rates for the Hispanic population has slowed. In 2001, Hispanics comprised 14.4 percent of Washington s dropouts, and they had climbed to 16.9 percent of the dropout population by 2004 (Figure 13). After lawmakers enacted the state tuition equity law, the Hispanic share of dropout population declined significantly. If trends continue, the gap between the percentage of Hispanic students and the percentage of Hispanic dropouts will continue to shrink. COLORADO Hispanic dropout rates are an acutely significant issue in Colorado. As the percentage of Hispanic student enrolled in grades K-12 has increased in the state, so has the percentage of Hispanic students who drop out of school without a high school diploma. Although the higher rate of minorities dropping out of school has been a trend, Colorado has experienced an increase in Hispanic dropouts over the last two years that has surpassed all other minority groups in the state. According to the Colorado Department of Education, total student enrollments for grades K-12 rose from 560,236 in 1987 to 802,639 in The most significant increase among the various ethnic groups was the rise in the number of Hispanic students, increasing from 86,708 to 224,250 during that same period. The Hispanic share of the student population nearly doubled for those years, from 15.5 percent to 27.9 percent. Table 10 shows Colorado pupil membership by ethnicity for 1987, 1996, 2001, 2006 and Additionally, the dropout rate in Colorado for all students increased from 3.5 percent in 1998 to 4.4 percent in For white Caucasian students, the Figure 13: Washington Hispanic Percentage of Student Population and Dropout Rates 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Hispanic dropouts Hispanic student population Source: Washington Office of Superintendent of Public Instruction, Graduation and Dropout Statistics Table 10: Colorado Pupil Membership by Ethnicity 1987, 1996, 2001, 2006 and 2007 American Indian % 1.1% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% Asian 2.1% 2.6% 3.0% 3.3% 3.4% Black 5.0% 5.5% 5.7% 6.0% 6.0% Hispanic 15.5% 18.8% 23.3% 27.6% 27.9% White 76.6% 72.0% 66.8% 61.9% 61.5% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Source: Colorado Department of Education, Pupil Membership Reports