THE RISE OF THE DATA-DRIVEN ECONOMY: Implications for Growth and Policy

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1 THE RISE OF THE DATA-DRIVEN ECONOMY: Implications for Growth and Policy Roberto Masiero President THINK! The Innovation Knowledge Foundation Convegno AICA - 20 settembre 2013 THINK! The Innovation Knowledge Foundation

2 Mercato Italiano dell ICT ,0% 5,7% 5,0% 3,0% 1,0% -1,0% -3,0% -5,0% -7,0% 2,3% 1,2% 0,8% 1,1% 0,1% 2,6% 2,5% 1,9% 2,3% 1,5% 0,4% -0,6% -0,5% -1,0% -2,5% -5,1% -8,1% 1,5% -2,8% -2,3% 0,4% -3,4% -4,8% -1,1% -2,9% -2,7% -2,4% -5,5% -5,2% -9,0% E 2013 E Mercato IT Mercato TLC PIL Fonti: The Innovation Group, Banca D Italia, Confindustria 2

3 PIL vs IT Growth, PIL GAP IT Fonti: The Innovation Group, Banca D Italia, Confindustria 3

4 Come cambiano il mercato e l industria La Common Wisdom del passato: Il mercato IT aumenta sempre più del GDP La grande crisi del 2008 ha introdotto una nuova nozione: Il mercato IT tende ad aumentare più che proporzionalmente rispetto al GDP quando il tasso di crescita di questo è positivo, ma tende a flettere più che proporzionalmente col decrescere del GDP Il concetto chiave che vorrei proporvi oggi è: In presenza di un GDP decrescente il mercato IT tende a flettere per motivi sia congiunturali che strutturali, e questa flessione non è compensata dall aumento di valore del mercato DT (Digital Technologies) Quest ultimo abilita tuttavia un forte sviluppo dei Mercati Adiacenti, che vanno a comporre la nuova Economia Digitale. Questa rappresenta il maggiore volano di crescita per il futuro In altre parole: Il futuro dell IT è fuori dall IT 4

5 Dall ICT all Economia Digitale ECONOMIA DIGITALE Mercati Adiacenti ICT DT ICT DT E-commerce Data.driven economy Big Data Smart Cities Cybersecurity Business Services dal Mash-up del Cloud Fonte: The Innovation Group 5

6 The Industrial Economy Creation of Economic Value Goods Consumers Businesses Government 6

7 Service Economy Creation of Economic Value Goods Services Consumers Business Government 7

8 Data-Driven Economy Creation of Economic Value Goods Services Data Consumers Business Government 8

9 Data production creates economic value Sooo..: The production and use of data is becoming a fundamental component of economic value creation, just like the production and use of goods and services 9

10 Data is Different. Goods Tangible Can be stored Consumption is usually separated from production Services Intangible Cannot easily be stored Consumption often happens at the same moment as production Data Intangible Can be easily stored Consumption is usually separated From production 10

11 Services vs Data In fact, we are increasingly seeing traditional services transformed into data-driven activities, with very different characteristics. One example is retailing. Traditional retailing involved and still involves a large number of low-skilled workers personally stocking shelves and ringing up sales to customers. By contrast, online retailing, as practiced by Amazon and others, requires far fewer workers. The ordering process is typically handled electronically, and even the distribution warehouses are on the way to becoming automated as well.» Michael Mandel 11

12 but measuring Data-Driven Value Creation is Hard Not easy to assign monetary values to data flows Value of the database depends on quality of analytic tools Not easy to unbundle data from goods and services Data flows in both directions Users of Facebook are providing information to marketers 12

13 Unmeasured data consumption Apps Games Maps and navigation Search Social media Storage (Apple, Google, Amazon, RIM, Microsoft, Facebook) (Google, Yahoo, Microsoft, AOL, Facebook) (Zynga, PerBlue) (Google, Microsoft, Apple, Mapquest, Yahoo) (Google, Microsoft, DuckDuckGo, Blekko) (Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, Pinterest, Foursquare) (Dropbox, Google, Apple, Amazon) Transmission (AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile, Comcast, Sprint, Time-Warner Cable) Video (Youtube, Vimeo, Hulu, Netflix, Amazon, itunes) 13

14 Unmeasured Investment in Data Genomic databases Financial databases Social media databases Consumer transaction databases Health transaction databases Climate databases (National Center for Biotechnology Information, Ensembl, MaizeDB) (Bloomberg, Thomson, CRSP, Global Financial Data) (Facebook, Twitter) (Amazon, Wal-Mart, MasterCard, Visa, American Express) (CVS Caremark) (National Climatic Data Center, European Climate Assessment & Dataset) 14

15 Real consumer spending on Data Services (as Meansured By The Bea) Change in real consumer spending 2001 IV II At annual rates Internet access 4.8% Cable and satellite Tv and radio -1.4% Cellular telephone services 4.5% Local landline -4.8% Long-distance landline -4.8% Total consumer data services (as measured by the Bea) -0.7% Data: BEA, PPI 15

16 REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES FOR INTERNET ACCESS (BILLIONS OF 2005 DOLLARS) Data: Bureau of Economic Analysis (data as of 8/10/2012) 16

17 REAL CONSUMPTION OF CONSUMER DATA SERVICES IN THE UNITED STATES HAS BARELY GROWN OVER PAST YEAR, ACCORDING TO OFFICIAL STATISTICS (SECOND QUARTER OF 2011 = 1) Data: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Progressive Policy Institute (data as of 8/10/12) 17

18 The global economy would not be able to function without cross-border data flows:.financial data.internal corporate data links with offshore suppliers webpages video and much more. 18

19 Cross-border flows of data are the fastestgrowing component of international trade.global demand for cross-border bandwidth rose at a 49 percent annual rate between 2008 and 2012 Data: TeleGeography 19

20 World Trade: Data vs Goods and Services (annual growth rate ) 60% 50% 49% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Cross-border data flows 2,4% Real trade in goods and services Data: TeleGeography, IMF 20

21 How big, in economic terms, is this cross-border data flow? but much of cross-border data does not get counted as exports or imports in the trade statistics. 21

22 Implications for GDP and growth: - Are we severely underestimating the impact of data consumption on GDP growth? 2,5% Real U.S. GDP growth, with and without unmeasured data consumption (first two quarters of 2012, annual rates) 2,0% 1,5% 1,0% 0,5% unmeasured personal data consumption Published GDP growth 0,0% Real GDP growth Real GDP growth, adjusted for unmeasured data consumption by individuals Data: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Progressive Policy Institute (from Beyond Goods and Services: The (Unmeasured) Rise of the Data-Driven Economy (October 2012) 22

23 A few final issues for our discussion Would adding data make a big difference on the current national accounting systems? Dead data, live data and disintermediation of the traditional research an economic statistics ecosystems Will the diffusion of the Cloud paradigm speed-up the transformation of traditional services into data-driven activities? Data-driven economy, structured transactions vs embedded systems and the internet of things Big Data, enterprise processes and industry transformation In which vertical areas will Big Data develop faster? De-fragmenting the European digital system: data free flow and economic growth. And finally: what about Big Data related concerns and threats? 23

24 Contatti Roberto Masiero President THINK! Mail: The Innovation Knowledge Foundation Via Palermo Milano THINK! The Innovation Knowledge Foundation 24