Wireless Telecommunication Industry Overview
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1 Wireless Telecommunication Industry Overview Columbia Graduate Consulting Club February 13, 2012 Pablo Prieto-Muñoz COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY Civil Engineering and Engineering Mechanics
2 Global mobile phone subscribers
3 Five Forces Industry Competition Threat of New Entrants Bargaining Power of Suppliers Rivalry Among Existing Competitors Bargaining Power of Buyers Threat of Substitute Products of Services
4 Current Market Life Cycle Major Players Industry Changes Profitability Emerging? Mature? Declining? Recent Performance? Market Share New Players Innovation Regulation Margins Costs vs. Revenues
5 Telecommunications Industry Number Unit Year U.S. Telecommunications Industry Revenues 985 Bil. US$ 2010 Worldwide Telecommunications Industry Revenues 3.1 Tril. US$ 2010 Landline Households with Wired Subscribership, U.S Mil. 10-Jul Landline Revenue, U.S Bil. US$ 2010 Wireless Annualized Total Wireless Service Revenues, U.S Bil. US$ 2010 Annualized Wireless Data Revenues, U.S Bil. US$ 2010 Number of Wireless Connections, U.S Mil. 10-Dec Market Penetration, U.S. 96 % 10-Dec Portion of Mobile Consumers with a Smart Phone, U.S. 31 % 10-Dec Cellular & Other Wireless Revenue, U.S Bil. US$ 2009 Mobile Advertising Revenue, North America, Mil. US$ 2010 Mobile Advertising Revenue, North America, 2011** Mil. US$ 2011 Wi-Fi & Cellular Device Shipments, U.S. 247 Mil. Units 2010 Mobile Cellular Service Subscriptions, Worldwide* 5.3 Bil. 11-Mar Individual Subscribers, Worldwide** 4.2 Bil. 11-Jun Mobile Broadband (3G) Subscribers, Worldwide 940 Mil SMS Messages Sent, Worldwide 6.1 Tril Handset Sales 2010, Worldwide 1.6 Bil. Units Mobile Advertising Revenue, Worldwide 1.6 Bil. US$ 2010 Mobile Application Downloads, Worldwide ** 17.7 Bil Mobile Application Revenue, Worldwide (Includes Purchases & Ad Revenue)** 15.1 Bil. US$ Smart Phone Sales, Worldwide Mil. Units 2010 Employment in the Telecommunications Industry, U.S Thous. 10-Dec
6 CURRENT MARKET: Life Cycle Industry Growth Number of Subscribers (Million) Revenue (Bil$) Year Subscribers US Population Revenue
7 CURRENT MARKET: Life Cycle 350 Industry Growth Typical Lifecycle Number of Subscribers (Million) Revenue (Bil$) Year Subscribers US Population Revenue
8 CURRENT MARKET: Life Cycle Industry Growth Number of Subscribers (Million) Revenue (Bil$) Year Subscribers US Population Revenue
9 CURRENT MARKET: Major Players Major Players Million 32.4% CDMA Million 30.7% GSM 51 Million 15.2% CDMA 34 Million 10.1% GSM Million 5.3% GSM/CDMA 9 Million 2.7% CDMA 6 Million 1.8% CDMA 6 Million 1.8% CDMA
10 CURRENT MARKET: Major Players Major Players Million 32.4% CDMA Million 30.7% GSM GSM vs. CDMA Cellular Networks GSM Global System for Mobile Communications: World Standard top 15 World carriers use GSM Serve 80% of the global market 51 Million 15.2% CDMA 34 Million 10.1% GSM CDMA Code Division Multiple Access: Differentiation in its use of Multiple Access, allows different users to share the same physical channel Million 5.3% GSM/CDMA 9 Million 2.7% CDMA 6 Million 1.8% CDMA 6 Million 1.8% CDMA
11 CURRENT MARKET: Major Players Major Players - Carriers Million 32.4% CDMA Million 30.7% GSM 51 Million 15.2% CDMA 34 Million 10.1% GSM Million 5.3% GSM/CDMA 9 Million 2.7% CDMA 6 Million 1.8% CDMA 6 Million 1.8% CDMA
12 CURRENT MARKET: Major Players Major Players Cell Phones Vendor 2Q11 Units 2Q11 Market Share (%) 2Q10 Units 2Q10 Market Share (%) Nokia 97, , Samsung 69, , LG 24, , Apple 19, , ZTE 13, , Research In Motion 12, , HTC 11, , Motorola 10, , Huawei Device Sony Ericsson 9, , , , Others 153, , Total 428, ,
13 CURRENT MARKET: Industry Changes Innovation Applications Devices Patents New Players Mobile App downloads will increase to 25 Bil. in 2015 from 2.6 Bil. in in 4 American adults actively use apps By 2016 more than 44 billion apps will have been downloaded 270 Mil. data capable devices were in the hands of consumers >630 Different handsets 35% of Americans own smartphones Over 40,000 wireless-related patents in the last 20 years Wifi/hybrid cellphones - $19/month
14 CURRENT MARKET: Industry Changes Research & Development Patent
15 CURRENT MARKET: Industry Changes Increasing Data Growth
16 CURRENT MARKET: Industry Changes Spectrum Availability & Pipeline As the demand increases, and the benefits are more compelling by the day, it s all the more reason why unleashing more spectrum must be a national priority. That s what I want to talk about today: four core reasons why spectrum is at the top of my agenda -- American competitiveness, opportunity, the enormous dollar benefits of freeing up spectrum and the enormous costs of delay. FCC Chairman Julius Genachowski International CTIA WIRELESS 2011 Show
17
18 CURRENT MARKET: Industry Changes Virtuous Cycle Spectrum is available Consumers continue to consume & want more Since networks can handle more So app/content developers are creating new apps/content Device manufacturers offer new capabilities
19 CURRENT MARKET: Industry Changes Spectrum Auctions Auctions generate billions of dollars in revenues to U.S MHz and AWS 1 auction raised $30B for U.S. Taxpayers
20 PROFITABILITY Profit Margin Revenues Profit Margin Revenues
21 ATT merger with T-Mobile In 2011 ATT (#2) made a $39 Bil. bid on T- Mobile (#4) Would have extended 4G to 97.3% from 80% Fought off by Justice Department (who filed a federal antitrust lawsuit) and Sprint Would have delayed the spectrum shortage Ended Dec 19 th 2011 After spending $4 Bil.
22 Five Forces Industry Competition Threat of New Entrants Bargaining Power of Suppliers Rivalry Among Existing Competitors Bargaining Power of Buyers Threat of Substitute Products of Services
23 Threat of New Entrants Five Forces - Access to Industry finance (high fixed costs) Competition - Entrants are subject to financial state - FCC Still gives Threat telecom of New licenses - Good Radio Entrants spectrum Bargaining Power of Supplier - Many vendors are available Bargaining (infrastructure, fiber optic Power cables, of software, ) Suppliers - Limit on personnel, talented managers and engineers Competitive Rivalry - Cut Throat Rivalry - New technology Among is creating Existing substitute services Competitors - Market is nearly at capacity Bargaining Power of Buyers - Rising power due to increased number of telecom products Bargaining Very little Power of Buyers differentiation - Switching costs are low for residential customers, but may be high for corporations Threat of Substitute Threat Products of - Cable TV Substitute and Satellite Products compete - Internet voice of Services Internet telephony
24 Questions?
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