Basic Concepts for Convection Parameterization in Weather Forecast and Climate Models: COST Action ES0905 Final Report

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1 Atmosphere 2015, 6, ; doi: /atmos OPEN ACCESS atmosphere ISSN Project Report Basic Concepts for Convection Parameterization in Weather Forecast and Climate Models: COST Action ES0905 Final Report Jun Ichi Yano 1, *, Jean-François Geleyn 1, Martin Köller 2, Dmitrii Mironov 2, Johannes Quaas 3, Pedro M. M. Soares 4, Vaughan T. J. Phillips 5, Robert S. Plant 6, Anna Deluca 7, Pascal Marquet 1, Lukrecia Stulic 8 and Zeljka Fuchs 8 1 CNRM/GAME UMR 3589, Météo-France and CNRS, Toulouse Cedex, France; s: mma109@chmi.cz (J.-F.G.); pascal.marquet@meteo.fr (P.M.) 2 DWD, Offenbach, Germany; s: Martin.Koehler@dwd.de (M.K.); Dmitrii.Mironov@dwd.de (D.M.) 3 Institute for Meteorology, Universität Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany; johannes.quaas@uni-leipzig.de 4 Instituto Dom Luiz, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisboa, Portugal; pmsoares@fc.ul.pt 5 Department of Physical Geography,and Ecosystem Science, University of Lund, Solvegatan 12, Lund , Sweden; vaughan.phillips@nateko.lu.se 6 Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, RG6 6BB Reading, UK; r.s.plant@reading.ac.uk 7 Max Planck Institute for the Physics of Complex Systems, Dresden, Germany; adeluca@pks.mpg.de 8 Department of Physics, University of Split, Split, Croatia; s: lukrezsia@gmail.com (L.S.); zeljka.fuchs@gmail.com (Z.F.) * Author to whom correspondence should be addressed; jiy.gfder@gmail.com; Tel.: ; Fax: Academic Editor: Katja Friedrich Received: 4 June 2014 / Accepted: 27 November 2014 / Published: 26 December 2014 Abstract: The research network Basic Concepts for Convection Parameterization in Weather Forecast and Climate Models was organized with European funding (COST Action ES0905) for the period of Its extensive brainstorming suggests how the subgrid-scale parameterization problem in atmospheric modeling, especially for convection,

2 Atmosphere 2015, 6 89 can be examined and developed from the point of view of a robust theoretical basis. Our main cautions are current emphasis on massive observational data analyses and process studies. The closure and the entrainment detrainment problems are identified as the two highest priorities for convection parameterization under the mass flux formulation. The need for a drastic change of the current European research culture as concerns policies and funding in order not to further deplete the visions of the European researchers focusing on those basic issues is emphasized. Keywords: parameterization; convection; subgrid scales 1. Introduction The research network COST Action ES0905 Basic Concepts for Convection Parameterization in Weather Forecast and Climate Models was organized with European funding over the period The present paper constitutes a final scientific report of the network activity. The achievements of the present Action are closely examined by following each task agreed, and each question listed in the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU, available at: essem/actions/es0905). In some cases, a question in concern turns out to be ill-posed or ambiguous. The present report acknowledges such instances, and indeed, considers the need for a re-evaluation of some aspects of the MoU to be an outcome of the Action in its own right. The report is only concerned with the scientific developments and achievements of the Action network. For information on the actual Action activities (meetings and documents), the readers are strongly encouraged to visit the Action Web site ( Our major achievement as a deliverable is a monograph [1]. Reference to this monograph is made frequently throughout the report for this reason. However, the present report is not an abbreviation of the monograph: it is another key deliverable that, by complementing the monograph, more critically analyzes the current convection parameterization issues and presents the future perspectives. The present report is assembled by the lead author under his responsibility as a chair of the present Action. Many have contributed to this specific process. Those who have critically contributed are asked to be co-authors, including working group (WG) leaders (JFG, MK, DM, JQ). Many others have contributed by submitting text segments, by proof reading part of or the entirety of the text, as well as general comments. These contributions are listed in the acknowledgments at the end of the present report. Though the present report does not intend to replace an official final report submitted to the COST office, it expresses collective positions of the contributing authors while also reflecting well the overall Action achievements. By its nature, the present report does not intend to be a comprehensive review, but focus more specifically on the issues listed in MoU and actually discussed in due course of the COST Action. The report particularly does not always remark on the issues already accepted to be important in the community. The emphasis is, more than often, on the issues that are not widely appreciated,

3 Atmosphere 2015, 6 90 and the report tends to take an unconventional view in order to compensate for the currently widely accepted views. For this reason, the report is overall, more critical with the current state-of-the-art of the research. However, we request that the readers not to read us as critics for the sake of critics. The contributing authors also bear these criticisms as our common fault of failing to do better than otherwise. The intention of these critical remarks are so that our convection parameterization research becomes more sound in future to come. Of course, the authors do not claim that all the arguments developed in the present report are ultimately right, but are only the best ones that they can offer for now. Thus, these arguments must be used as a starting point for more critical and constructive debates on the future direction of the convection parameterization research. The general perspectives in the last section of the report are also developed from this point of view Overview The main objective of the Action has been, as stated in MoU, to provide clear theoretical guidance on convection parameterization for climate and numerical weather prediction models. Here, the problem of parameterization arises because both the weather forecast and the climate models run only with limited spatial resolutions, and thus many physical processes are not properly represented by falling short of the resolution required for adequate explicit simulation of the process. In other words, there are processes in the subgrid scales, which must somehow be included as a part of a model in an indirect, parameteric manner. Such a procedure is called parameterization (cf. [2]). Convection is one of the key processes to be parameterized considering its importance in heat and moisture budget of the atmosphere (cf. [3]), and the one upon which the present Action is focused. Here, although the word parameterization is often used in a much wider sense in the literature, in the present report, the term is strictly limited to the description of subgrid scale processes. Many of the atmospheric physical processes (notably cloud microphysics) must often be phenomenologically described by vast simplifications. However, such a phenomenological description should not be confused with the parameterization problem. The parameterization problem is often considered a highly technical, engineering issue without theoretical basis. Often, it is even simply reduced to a matter of tuning. The goal of the Action is to suggest how the parameterization problem can be addressed from a more basic theoretical basis, both from perspectives of theoretical physics and applied mathematics. For this purpose, the extensive brain storming has been performed by organizing a number of meetings. Here, the results of these theoretical reflections are reported by closely following what has been promised in the MoU. The focus is on the technical questions listed in MoU. However, a more basic intention is, by examining these questions, to suggest more generally what can be addressed from more fundamental perspectives of theoretical physics and applied mathematics, and how. For this reason, efforts are always made to add general introductory remarks in introducing each subject A Key Achievement MoU specifically lists (Sec. B.1 Background) the following convection-related processes that were still to be resolved: too early onset of afternoon convection over land, underestimation of rainfall

4 Atmosphere 2015, 6 91 maximum, failure to represent the day planetary scale tropical oscillation (the Madden Julian oscillation). We can safely claim that one of the problems listed there, the afternoon convection, is now solved by the efforts under the present Action. As it turns out, the key is to examine a closure in convection parameterization in a more careful manner, as will be further discussed in T1.1. This is also considered a good example case for demonstrating the importance of theoretical guidance on the convection parameterization problem Identified Pathways As MoU states, The Action proposes a clear pathway for more coherent and effective parameterization by integrating existing operational schemes and new theoretical ideas. As it turns out, instead of a unique pathway, we identify three major pathways for pursuing such an endeavor [4]: (1) fundamental turbulence research; (2) close investigations of the parameterization formulation itself; and (3) better understanding of the processes going on both within convection and the boundary layer. The first approach is based on our understanding that the atmospheric convective processes are fundamentally turbulent. Thus, without fundamental understanding of the latter, no real breakthrough can be expected in the convection parameterization problem. The second is rather conventional, and even often considered obsolete, but we very strongly emphasize the importance of a thorough understanding how a given parameterization actually works in order to improve it. We believe that proper emphasis on the first two major pathways is critically missing in the current research efforts. The second is probably even more important than the first for the reasons to be discussed below. The third is the currently most widely-accepted approach with the use of cloud resolving models (CRMs) as well as large eddy simulations (LESs). We are rather critical of the current over-reliance on this approach. Our criticisms are double edged: these studies must be performed with a clear pathway leading to an improvement of a parameterization in mind. At the same time, much in depth analysis for identifying precise mechanisms (e.g., under energy cycle: cf. Q1.2.1) associated with a given process is required (cf. Section 2.4.1). Here, the second approach should not be confused with a more conventional, blind tuning. Emphasized here is an importance of in-depth understanding of a parameterization itself in order to improve it, and we have to know why it must be modified in a particular manner, and we should also be able to explain why the model can be improved in this manner. Such a careful parameterization study should not be confused with the process studies, either. A good historical lesson to learn from turbulence research is an improvement of the so-called QN (quasi normal) model into the EDQN (eddy damping quasi normal) model in simulating the turbulent kinetic energy spectrum (cf. Ch. VII in [5]). This improvement was not achieved by any process study of turbulent motions, but rather a close investigation of the QN model itself, even at a level of physical variables which are not explicitly evaluated in actual simulations. As identified, the skewness, one of such variables, tends to steepen with time in a rather singular manner. Thus it suggests an additional damping to the skewness equation is necessary. This further suggests how the kinetic energy equation must be modified consistently.

5 Atmosphere 2015, 6 92 This is not a simple tuning exercise, but a real improvement based on a physical understanding of the behavior of a given parameterization. Without in depth understanding, no real improvement of a parameterization would be possible. A process study has no contribution here either. Just imagine, if Orszag [6] has had focused on intensive process studies of turbulence based on, say, direct numerical simulations (DNSs): he would never have identified a problem with the skewness equation in QN. Note that the key issue is in self consistency (cf. T2.4 below) of the QN formulation itself, but nothing to do with number of physical processes incorporated into QN Model Comparisons and Process Studies We emphasize, as stated in MoU, that the aim of the present Action is to complement the already existing model comparison studies. In other words, from the outset, we did not intend to perform model comparison studies by ourselves a priori. Rather we are skeptical against those existing model comparison studies, especially for development and verification of parameterizations. Of course, this is not to discredit all the benefits associated with model comparison exercises. A single column configuration typically adopted for comparison studies is extremely helpful for identifying the workings of subgrid scale parameterizations in a stand alone manner with large scale (resolved scale) processes prescribed as column averaged tendencies. These tendencies are often taken from observations from a field campaign, thus these are expected to be more reliable than those found in stand alone model simulations, or even a typical assimilation data for forecast initialization. In this manner, the role of individual subgrid scale processes can clearly be examined. For example, the surface fluxes can be prescribed so that the other processes can be examined without feedback from the surface fluxes. Merits of running several models together are hardly denied either. In this way, we can clearly see common traits in a certain class of parameterization more clearly than otherwise (e.g., [7,8]). On the other hand, a process study associated with a model comparison can lead to misleading emphasis for the parameterization development. For example, Guichard et al. [7] suggested the importance of transformation from shallow to deep convection in a diurnal convective cycle, as phenomenologically inferred from their CRM simulations. No careful investigation on a possible mechanism behind was performed there. This has, nevertheless, led to extensive process studies on the shallow to deep transition (e.g., [9] and the references therein: see also Q1.2.1, Q2.3.1). This conclusion would have been certainly legitimate for guiding a direction for the further studies of the convective processes. However, Guichard et al. [7] even suggested this transformation process as a key missing element in parameterizations. The difference between these two statements must clearly be distinguished. A suggested focus on the transformation process does not give any key where to look within a parameterization itself: is it an issue of entrainment detrainment or closure (cf. Section 2.1)? The lead author would strongly argue that this work has led to a rather misguided convection parameterization research over the following decade. In short sight, it is easier to control convection height by entrainment and detrainment rather than by closure. Thus, vast research effort is diverted to the former with an overall neglect of the latter. As it turns out, the closure is rather a key issue for this problem as demonstrated by Bechtold et al. [10] and fully discussed in T1.1, but rather in contrast to other earlier attempts. Here, one may argue that the

6 Atmosphere 2015, 6 93 transformation process is ultimately linked to the closure problem. However, how can we see this simply by many process experiments? In addition, how we identify a possible modification of the closure in this manner? It would be similar to asking to Orszag [6] to run many DNSs and figure out a problem in the skewness equation of QN. Note that even a skewness budget analysis of DNSs would not point out the problem in QN. We should clearly distinguish between process studies and the parameterization studies: the latter does not follow automatically from the former Organization of the Action In the next section, we examine our major achievements by following our four major activities: 1. Mass-flux based approaches (Section 2.1) 2. Non-Mass Flux based approaches (Section 2.2) 3. High-Resolution Limit (Section 2.3) 4. Physics and Observations (Section 2.4) These four activities, respectively roughly cover the four secondary objectives listed in MoU (Section C.2): 1. Critical analysis of the strengths and weakness of the state-of-the-art convection parameterizations 2. Development of conceptual models of atmospheric convection by exploiting methodologies from theoretical physics and applied mathematics 3. Proposal of a generalized parameterization scheme applicable to all conceivable states of the atmosphere 4. Defining suitable validation methods for convection parameterization against explicit modeling (CRM and LES) as well as against observations, especially satellite data These secondary objectives are furthermore associated with a list of Tasks to be achieved and a list of Questions to be answered in MoU. In the following sections, we examine how far we have achieved the promised Tasks, and then present our answers for the Questions listed for each category in the MoU. Note that these Tasks and Questions are given by bold face headings starting with the upper case initials, T and Q, respectively. The assigned numbers in MoU are used for the Tasks, whereas the MoU does not assign any numbers to the Questions. Here, the order of the Questions is altered from the MoU so that they are presented side by side with the listed Tasks in order. Numbers are assigned to the Questions accordingly. On the other hand, the order and the numbering of the Tasks are unaltered from MoU, which is considered like a legal document binding us. This choice is made in order to make it clear that the present report is written directly in response to MoU, though the pre-given order may not be the best. To compensate, extensive inter-references between the Tasks and Questions are given in the text. In answering these tasks and questions, various new theoretical ideas are often outlined. However, we consider that full development of these ideas are beyond the scope of the present report. References to other recent papers produced by the Action members are made when appropriate to allow readers to delve more thoroughly into some of those ideas that have been pursued to date.

7 Atmosphere 2015, Tasks and Questions 2.1. Mass-Flux Based Approaches The majority of both operational weather forecast and climate projection models adopt mass flux based approaches for convection parameterization. In mass flux based approaches, the key issues clearly remain the closure and the entrainment-detrainment [11]. In spite of progress under the present Action, we are still short of identifying ultimate answers to both issues. Thus, the best recommendation we can make is to re emphasize an importance of focusing on these two key issues in future research on convection parameterization so long as we decide to stay with the mass flux based formulation. Presently, maintenance of mass flux formulation is the basic strategy of all the major operational research centers. For this reason, the following discussion is also naturally focused on these two issues along with other related issues. However, it should be recognized that the mass flux formulation is not without limit. Remember especially that this formulation is specifically designed to represent plume type convection such as convective cumulus towers as well as smaller scale equivalent entities found in the boundary layer and over the inversion layer (cloud topped or not). The formulation clearly does not apply to disorganized turbulent flows typically found in the boundary layer on much smaller scales. An important distinction here is that transport by convective plumes and turbulent mixing (background turbulence) are inherently non local and local, respectively. Thus, a qualitatively different description is required. The last point may be important to bear in mind because these disorganized flows are likely to become more important processes to be parameterized with increasing horizontal resolutions of the models (cf. Section 2.3) Overview Reminders of some basics of mass-flux convection parameterization (cf. [12,13] are due first. As the name suggests, the quantity called mass flux, M, which measures vertical mass transport by convection, is a key variable to be determined. Once it is known, in principle, various remaining calculations are relatively straightforward in order to obtain the final answer of the grid-box averaged feedback of convection, as required for any subgrid-scale parameterization. This approach works well so long as we stay with a standard thermodynamics formulation (with the standard approximations: cf. [14 16], T2.4 below) and microphysical processes (including precipitation) can be neglected. The latter must either be drastically simplified in order to make it fit into the above standard formulation, or alternatively, an explicit treatment of convective vertical velocity is required (cf. [17]: see further Q2.1.2 below). The last is a hard task by itself under the mass-flux formulation, as reviewed in a book chapter [18]. As assumed in many operational schemes, the mass flux can be separated into two factors, one for the vertical profile and the other for a time-dependent amplitude: M = η(z)m B (t) (1)

8 Atmosphere 2015, 6 95 Here, a subscript B is added to the amplitude M B (t), because customarily it is defined at convection base, although it is misleading to literally consider it to be determined at the convection base for the reason to be explained immediately below (see also Q1.3.1). Such a separation of variables becomes possible by assuming a steady state for parameterized convective ensembles. This assumption is usually called the steady plume hypothesis because these convective ensembles are usually approximated by certain types of plumes. This assumption naturally comes out when the convective scale is much smaller than that of the resolved large scales. Under this situation, the time scale for convection is so short that we may assume that convective ensembles are simply in equilibrium with a large-scale state. Under this hypothesis, we should not think in terms of a naive picture that convection is initiated from a boundary-layer top and gradually grows upwards. Such a transient process is simply not considered [19]. As a whole, under this standard approximation, a life cycle of individual convective clouds, including an initial trigger, is not at all taken into account. In other words, in order to include those processes, this approximation must first be relaxed. Under the standard plume formulation, a vertical profile, η(z), of mass flux is determined by the entrainment and the detrainment rates, E and D: M z = E D (2) Here, entrainment and detrainment, respectively, refer to influx and outflux of air mass into and out of the convection (convective plume), as the above formula suggests. Thus, a key issue reduces to that of prescribing the entrainment and the detrainment rates. Once these parameters are known, a vertical profile of mass flux, η(z), can be determined in a straightforward manner, by vertically integrating Equation (2: cf. T1.4). Here, however, note a subtle point that strictly the mass flux profile, η(z), also changes with time through the change of the entrainment and the detrainment rates by following the change of a large scale state. A standard hypothesis (convective quasi-equilibrium hypothesis) is to assume that convection is under equilibrium with a given large-scale state. As a result, the amplitude of convection is expected to be determined solely in terms of a large-scale state. This problem is called the closure. Thus, closure and entrainment-detrainment are identified as the two key problems. Here, it is important to emphasize that, against a common belief, the trigger is not a part of the mass-flux convection parameterization problem for the reason just explained. Though we may choose to set the convective amplitude to zero (because convection does not exist always), this would simply be a part of the closure formulation. T1.1: Review of Current State-of-the-Art of Closure Hypothesis Our review on the closure [20] has facilitated in resolving the afternoon convection problem [10]: the question of onset of convection in late afternoon rather than in early afternoon, as found globally over land, by following the sun with the maximum of conditional instability as conventionally measured by CAPE (convective available potential energy). Many efforts were invested on modifying entrainment detrainment parameters (e.g., [21,22]), because they appeared to control the transformation from shallow to deep convection (cf. Section 1.4). However, as it turns out, the key is rather to improve

9 Atmosphere 2015, 6 96 the closure. Note that the modifications of entrainment detrainment also achieves this goal, but typically in expense of deteriorating the model climatology. Our effort for a systematic investigation on the closure problem [20] has greatly contributed in identifying this key issue. Bechtold et al. [10], in turn, have actually implemented our key conclusion into operation. The closure strategy tends to be divided into two dichotomous approaches by strongly emphasizing the processes either in the boundary layer (boundary-layer controlled closure [23]) or in the free troposphere (parcel-environment based closure [24,25]). The boundary-layer controlled closure tends to be more popular in the literature (e.g., [26 28]), probably due to the fact that the boundary layer is rich with many processes, apparently providing more possibilities. However, as clearly pointed out by Donner and Phillips [29], the boundary-layer control closure does not work in practice for mesoscale convective systems, which evolve slowly over many hours, because the processes in the boundary layer are too noisy to be useful as a closure condition in forecast models. Though some global climate models do adopt boundary-layer controlled closures [30 32], their behavior tends to noisier than otherwise (cf. Figures 3, 4, 6 and 7 of [32], respectively). Under the parcel environment based closure, it is rather the large scale forcing (e.g., uplifting) from the free troposphere that controls convection. Recall that the trigger from the boundary layer is not a part of the standard mass flux formulation, as already remarked. Though a process study on trigger of convection over a heterogeneous terrain, for example, may be fascinating (cf. [33]), no direct link with the closure problem should be made prematurely (cf. Section ). The basic idea of the parcel-environment based closure is to turn off the influence of the boundary layer for modifying CAPE with time when constructing the closure. In this manner, an evolution of parameterized convection not influenced by noisy boundary layer processes is obtained. The review by Yano et al. emphasizes the superiority of the parcel-environment based closure against the boundary layer controlled closure [20]. After its completion, this parcel-environment based closure is actually adopted at ECMWF. It is found that this relatively straightforward modification of the closure essentially solves the problem of the afternoon convection (a proper phase for the convective diurnal cycle) without any additional modifications to the model [10]. This implementation does not rely on any tuning exercise either: the result is rather insensitive to the major free parameter T (in their own notation) for the range of 1 6 K against the reported choice of T = 1 K [34]. The reported model improvement does not depend on details of the entrainment-detrainment, either [35]. Nevertheless, we should not insist that the former closure always works, or that the boundary layer control of convection is never important. For example, isolated scattered deep convection over intense surface heating, such as over land, may be more directly influenced by the boundary layer processes. There is also an indication that the latter principle works rather well for shallow convection in practice [36]. Note that Bechtold et al. [10] also maintain a boundary layer based closure for shallow convection. T1.2: Critical Review of the Concept of Convective Quasi-Equilibrium Convective quasi equilibrium, as originally proposed by Arakawa and Schubert in 1974 [37], is considered one of the basic concepts in convection closure. A review by Yano and Plant [38], completed under the present Action, elucidates the richness of this concept with extensive

10 Atmosphere 2015, 6 97 potential possibilities for further investigating it from various perspectives. Especially, there are two contrasting possibilities for interpreting this concept: under a thermodynamic analogy, as originally suggested by Arakawa and Schubert, or as a type of slow manifold condition (or a balance condition [39]). The review suggests that the latter interpretation may be more constructive. The review also suggests the importance of a more systematic observational verification of Arakawa and Schubert s hypothesis in the form that was originally proposed. Surprisingly, such basic diagnostic studies are not found in the literature in spite of their critical importance for more basic understanding of this concept. For example, though Davis et al. [40] examine convective quasi equilibrium, their formulation is based on the re interpretation of the Arakawa and Schubert s original formulation into a relaxation process (cf. Section 4.5 of [38]). Furthermore, along a similar line of investigation, the convective energy cycle becomes another issue to be closely examined [9,41,42]. Q1.2.1 discusses this issue further, but in short, Arakawa and Schubert s convective quasi equilibrium is defined as a balanced state in the cloud work function budget, which constitutes a part of the convective energy cycle. Importantly, the results from the energy cycle investigations suggest that the concept of convective quasi equilibrium could be more widely applicable than is usually supposed, with only a minor extension. The principle of convective quasi equilibrium is often harshly criticized from a phenomenological basis. For example, the importance of convective life cycles is typically emphasized, which is not considered under quasi equilibrium. The issue of self organized criticality to be discussed in Q1.7 could be a more serious issue. However, ironically, we have never made a fully working quasi equilibrium based convection parameterization. Consider a precipitation time series generated by an operational convection parameterization, ostensibly constructed under the quasi-equilibrium hypothesis: it is often highly noisy, suggesting that the system as operationally formulated does not stay as a slow process as the hypothesis intends to maintain (cf. Figure 6 [43]). In other words, operational quasi equilibrium based convection parameterizations are not working in the way that they are designed to work. Making a quasi equilibrium based parameterization actually work properly is clearly a more urgent issue before moving beyond the quasi equilibrium framework. At the very least we need to understand why it does not work in the way intended. Q1.2.1: How Can the Convective Quasi-Equilibrium Principle be Generalized to a System Subject to Time-Dependent Forcing? How Can a Memory Effect (e.g., from a Convection Event the Day before) Possibly be Incorporated into Quasi-Equilibrium Principle? The importance of the issue raised here cannot be overemphasized. Even 40 years after the publication of the original article by Arakawa and Schubert in 1974 [37], it is very surprising to find that their original formulation is hardly tested systematically in the literature, as already mentioned in T1.2 above. Though we are sure that there are lot of technical tests performed at an operational level, none of them is carefully reported in the literature.

11 Atmosphere 2015, 6 98 This issue can be considered at two different levels. The first is a more direct verification of Arakawa and Schubert s convective quasi-equilibrium hypothesis (their Equation (150)) from observations. Here, the hypothesis is stated as N K ij M Bj + F i = 0 (3) j=1 for the i th convective type, where K ij M Bj is a rate that the j th convective type consumes the potential energy (or more precisely, cloud work function) for the i th convective type, M Bj is the cloud base mass-flux for the j th convective type, and F i is the rate that large scale processes produce the i th convective type potential energy. Here, N convection types are considered. The matrix elements, K ij, are expected to be positive, especially for deep convection due to its stabilization tendency associated with warming of the environment by environmental descent. Currently intensive work by Jun-Ichi Yano and Robert S. Plant on this issue is underway. An important preliminary finding is that some of the matrix elements, K ij, can be negative due to a destabilization tendency of shallow convection associated with the re evaporation of detrained cloudy air. Second, the convective quasi-equilibrium principle can be generalized into a fully-prognostic formulation, as already indicated by Arakawa and Schubert [37] themselves, by coupling between an extension of their closure hypothesis (Equation (1.3), or their Equation (150)) into a prognostic version (i.e., Equation (142)) da i N = K ij M Bj + F i (4) dt j=1 and the kinetic energy equation dk i = A i M Bi D K,i (5) dt presented by their Equation (132). Here, A i is the cloud work function, K i the convective kinetic energy for the i th convective type and the term D K,i represents the energy dissipation rate. Randall and Pan [44,45] proposed to take this pair of equations as the basis of a prognostic closure. The possibility is recently re-visited by Plant and Yano [9,41,42] under a slightly different adaptation. This convective energy cycle system, consisting of Equations (4a,b), describes evolution of an ensemble of convective systems, rather than individual convective elements. It can explain basic convective processes: e.g., convective life cycles consisting of discharge (trigger) and recharge (suppression and recovery: [41]), as well as transformations from shallow to deep convection [9,42]. This result contains a strong implication, because against a common perception, the model demonstrates that an explicit trigger condition is not an indispensable ingredient in order to simulate a convective life cycle. Here, the life cycle of a convective ensemble is simulated solely by considering a modulation of convection ensemble under an energy-cycle description, keeping the evolution of individual convective elements implicit. This energy-cycle formulation (4a,b) is, in principle, straightforward to implement into any mass-flux based convection parameterization, only by switching the existing closure without changing the entrainment-detrainment formulation. Most of the current closures take an analogous form to Equation (3), which may be generalized into a prognostic form (4). This is coupled with Equation (5), which computes the convective kinetic energy prognostically. The latter equation is further

12 Atmosphere 2015, 6 99 re interpreted as a prognostic equation for the mass flux, by assuming a certain functional relationship between K i and M B,i. Here, a key is to couple shallow and deep convection in this manner, which are typically treated independently in current schemes. Many prognostic formulations for closure have already been proposed in the literature in various forms, e.g., [46]. However, it is important to emphasize that the formulation based on the convective energy cycle presented herein is the most natural extension of Arakawa and Schubert s convective quasi equilibrium principle to a prognostic framework. Q1.2.2: Are There Theoretical Formulation Available that could be Used to Directly Test Convective Quasi-Equilibrium (e.g., Based on Population Dynamics)? Clearly this question is inspired by a work of [47], which suggests that it is possible to derive a population dynamics system starting from Arakawa and Schubert s spectrum mass-flux formulation (however see T2.4, [48]). Thus, it is also natural to ask the question other way round: can we construct and test a closure hypothesis (e.g., convective quasi-equilibrium) based on a more general theory (e.g., population dynamics)? We have turned away from this direction during the Action for several reasons: (1) so far we have failed to identify a robust theoretical formulation that leads to a direct test of convective quasi-equilibrium or any other closure hypothesis; (2) it is dangerous to introduce an auxiliary theoretical condition to a parameterization problem without strong physical basis. This can make a parameterization more ad hoc, rather than making it more robust; (3) the convective quasi-equilibrium can better be tested in a more direct manner based on Arakawa and Schubert s original formulation as concluded in response to Q T1.3: Proposal for a General Framework of Parameterization Closure A closure condition is often derived as a stationarity condition of a vertically-integrated physical quantity. The two best known choices are water vapor (e.g., [49]) and the convective parcel buoyancy (e.g., [37]). The latter leads to a definition of CAPE or the cloud work function, more generally. (See Q1.3.1 for an alternative possibility.) A formulation for a closure under a generalization of this principle has been developed [50]. It is found that regardless of the specific choice of a physical quantity (or of any linear combinations of those), the closure condition takes the form of a balance between large-scale forcing, F i, and convective response, D c,i, as in the case of the original Arakawa and Schubert s quasi-equilibrium hypothesis, so that the closure condition can be written as F i + D c,i = 0 (6) for the i-th convective type. It is also found that the convective response term takes a form of an integral kernel, or a matrix, K i,j, in the discrete case, describing the interactions between different convective types, as in the Arakawa and Schubert s original formulation based on the cloud-work function budget. As a result, the convective response is given by D c,i = j K i,j M B,j (7)

13 Atmosphere 2015, Arakawa and Schubert s convective quasi equilibrium principle Equation (3) reduces to a special case of Equation (6). This general framework is expected to be useful in order to objectively identify basic principles for choosing more physically based closure conditions. Note that though stochasticity may be added to a closure condition, it is possible only after defining a deterministic part of closure. See Q1.3.2, T3.3 for further discussions (see also [51]). Q1.3.1: Is It Feasible to Re-Formulate the Closure Problem as that of the Lower Boundary Condition of the System? Is It Desirable to Do So? Formally speaking, the closure problem in mass-flux parameterization is that of defining the mass-flux at the convection base (cf. Section 2.1.1), and thus it may also be considered as a boundary condition. For example, the UM shallow-convection scheme is closed in this matter by taking a turbulent velocity measure as a constraint ([52]: see also [53,54]). However, as already discussed in Section 2.1.1, it is rather misleading to take the mass-flux closure problem as a type of bottom boundary condition, because what we really need is a general measure of convective strength, independent of any reference height, after a mass-flux vertical profile is normalized in a certain manner. It is just our old custom normalizing it by the convection-base value, but there is no strong reason to do so, especially if the mass-flux profile increases substantially from the convection base. This is the same reason as more generally why it is rather misleading to consider convection to be controlled by the boundary layer as already emphasized in T1.1. See [19] for more. Q1.3.2: How does the Fundamentally Chaotic and Turbulent Nature of Atmospheric Flows Affect the Closure of Parameterizations? Can the Quasi-Equilibrium still be Applied for These Flows? The convective energy cycle system, already discussed in Q1.2.1, is also the best approach for answering this question. In order to elucidate a chaotic behavior we have to take at least three convective modes. Studies have examined the one and two mode cases so far [9,42]. A finite departure from strict convective quasi-equilibrium may also be considered a stochastic process. Such a general framework, the method of homogenization, is outlined, for example, by Penland [55]. Specific examples of the applications include Melbourne and Stuart [56], and Gottwald and Melbourne [57]. T1.4: Review on Current State of the Art of Entrainment-Detrainment Formulations Entrainment and detrainment are technical terms referring respectively to the rate that mass enters into convection from the environment, and exits from convection to the environment (cf. Equation (2)). A review on these processes is published as [58] under the present Action. T1.5: Critical Review of Existing Methods for Estimating Entrainment and Detrainment Rates from CRM and LES As addressed in de Rooy et al. [58], there are two major approaches:

14 Atmosphere 2015, (1) Estimate by directly diagnosing the influx and outflux through the convection environment interfaces [59,60]. Both of these studies use an artificial tracer for identifying the convection environment interfaces. (2) Less direct estimates based on a budget analysis of a thermodynamic variable [61,62]. The distinction between convection and environment is made by a threshold based criterion (vertical velocity, cloudiness, buoyancy, or a combination of those). Unfortunately, these two approaches do not give the same estimates, but the former tends to give substantially larger values than the latter. The result suggests that we should not take the notion of the entrainment and the detrainment rates too literally, but they have meaning only under a context of a budget of a given variable that is diagnosed. Strictly, the latter estimate depends on a choice of a variable, as suggested by Yano et al. [63]. Also there is a subtle, but critical difference between the methods by [61,62], as discussed immediately below. It should be emphasized that the second approach is based on an exact formulation for a budget of a given transport variable (temperature, moisture) derived from an original full LES CRM system without any approximations. Thus, if a parameterization scheme could estimate all the terms given under this formulation, a self consistent evaluation of convective vertical transport would be possible. However, the main problem is that it is hard to identify a closed formulation that can recover such a result. The current mass flux formulation is definitely not designed in this manner. For the very last reason, neither approach gives entrainment and detrainment rates that lead to a mass flux profile that can predict vertical transport of a given variable exactly under a mass flux parameterization. To some extent, Siebesma and Cuijpers [61] make this issue explicit by including a contribution of an eddy convective transport term (a deviation from a simple mass flux based estimate) as a part of the estimation formula. Swann [62], in turn, avoids this problem by taking an effective value for a convective component obtained from a detrainment term, rather than a simple conditionally averaged convective value. As a result, under his procedure, the convective vertical flux is exact under the prescribed procedure for obtaining entrainment and detrainment in combination with the use of the effective convective value. Nevertheless, a contribution of environmental eddy flux must still be counted for separately. Furthermore, introduction of the effective value makes the convective component budget equation inconsistent with the standard formulation, though a difference would be negligible so long as a rate of temporal change of fractional area for convection is also negligible. Any of the estimation methods (whether direct or indirect) are also rather sensitive to thresholds applied for the distinction between convection and the environment. For example, Siebesma and Cuijpers [61] show that the values of entrainment and detrainment rates vary by 50% whether considering convection as a whole or only its core part (defined to have both positive vertical velocity and buoyancy). This sensitivity stems from the fact that when convection as a whole is considered, the differences between cloud and environment are smaller than if using the cloud core. Under this difference, in order to recover the same total convective vertical transport, Mφ c, for an arbitrary physical variable, φ, which is defined by a vertical integral of φ c z = E M (φ c φ) (8)

15 Atmosphere 2015, we have to assume different mixing coefficients (fractional entrainment rate), E/M, depending on this difference, φ c φ, between convection (core or cloud) and the environment. The same argument follows when a more direct estimate of entrainment detrainment rates is performed. Note that in some convective schemes, the eddy convective transport, M (φ c φ), is considered in terms of the eddy convective mass flux, M, instead. Also note that being consistent with the analysis methods in concern, we assume only one type of convection in this discussion, dropping the subscript i for now. Here, we should clearly distinguish between the issue of diagnosis based on LES CRM and the computations of a convective profile within a parameterization. In the former case, all the terms are simply directly diagnosed (estimated) from LES CRM output, and thus a self consistent answer is obtained automatically. On the other hand, in running a parameterization, none of those terms are known a priori, thus they must somehow be all diagnosed (computed) in a self contained manner without referring to any extra data. Clearly, the latter is much harder. The most fundamental reason that these LES CRM based entrainment detrainment estimates do not find a unique formulation nor a unique choice of threshold is that those CRMs and LESs do not satisfy a SCA (segmentally constant approximation) constraint that is assumed under the mass flux formulation, as discussed later in Q1.8. In principle, better estimates of entrainment detrainment would be possible by systematically exploiting a model under SCA but without entrainment detrainment hypothesis. However, such a possibility is still to be fully investigated (cf. [64]). An alternative perspective to this problem is to add an additional vertical eddy transport term estimated by a turbulence scheme. This perspective is consistent with the formulation proposed by Siebesma and Cuijpers [61], who explicitly retain the eddy transport in their diagnosis. This idea is further developed into convection parameterization combining the eddy diffusion and mass flux (EDMF: [54], see further T4.3). Of course, the turbulence scheme must be developed in such a manner that it can give an eddy transport value consistent with an LES CRM diagnosis. This is another issue to be resolved (cf. T4.3). Q1.5.1: From a Critical Review of Existing Methods for Estimating Entrainment and Detrainment Rates from CRM and LES, What are the Advantages and Disadvantages of the Various Approaches? The approach by Romps [59], and Dawe and Austin [60] presumably provides a more direct estimate of the air mass exchange rate crossing a convection environment interface. However, there are subtle issues associated with the definition of the convection environment interface, and how to keep track of it accurately. First note that to an inviscid limit (i.e., no molecular diffusion), which is a good approximation in convective scales, there would be strictly no exchange of air mass by crossing an interface defined in a Lagrangian sense. Such an interface would simply be continuously distorted with time by a typical turbulent tendency of stretching and folding into an increasingly complex shape, presumably leading to a fractal. Note that the turbulent processes only lead to continuous distortions of the material surfaces without mixing in the strict sense, though it may look like a mixing (as represented as an eddy diffusion) under a coarse graining. Such an interface evolution would numerically become increasingly intractable

16 Atmosphere 2015, with time, with increasingly higher resolutions required. Clearly the computation results would be highly dependent on the model resolution. An interface between convection (cloud) and the environment does not evolve strictly in a Lagrangian sense, but as soon as the cloud air evaporates, the given air is re classified as an environment, and vice versa. Such a reclassification is numerically involved by itself, and the result would also sensitively depend on a precise microphysical evaluation for evaporation. In this very respect, we may emphasize the importance of returning to laboratory experiments in order to perform measurements not contaminated by numerical issues. Indeed a laboratory experiment can reveal many more details of entrainment detrainment processes than a typical LES can achieve (Figure 1: cf. [65] see also [66]). Figure 1. A cross section of a thermal plume generated in a laboratory with use of a humidifier as a buoyancy source. Distribution of condensed water is shown by gray tone (courtesy: Anna Gorska and Szymon Malinowski).

17 Atmosphere 2015, A cautionary note should be raised in conjunction with laboratory experiments in relation to the life cycle issues discussed previously. An LES CRM simulation will produce many cumulus clouds and an estimation of entrainment/detrainment rates across the full simulation effectively produces an average over the individual cloud life cycles in a manner that is well suited to the consideration of an ensemble of clouds within a parameterization. The laboratory experiments focus on a single, isolated, buoyant plume, which is at once to their great advantage and disadvantage. See Q1.6.1 for related issues. See T1.5 for further comparisons of the entrainment detrainment evaluation methods. T1.6: Proposal and Recommendation for the Entrainment-Detrainment Problem The most important general suggestion drawn from [58] is an extensive use of CRM and LES in order to systematically evaluate the entrainment and the detrainment rates so that an extensive data base can be developed. As discussed in T1.5, such methodologies have already been well established. Extensive LES studies for shallow convection have established that mixing between convection and the environment is dominated by lateral mixing across the convection environment interfaces rather than a vertical mixing from the convection top, as proposed by Squires [67,68] and Paluch [69]. In this manner, it also establishes that the current entrainment detrainment formulation for defining convective mass flux, M, under the Formula (2) is more robust than other existing proposals. Furthermore, de-rooy et al. [58] suggest some specific research directions: (i) Critical fractional mixing ratio originally introduced in a context of a buoyancy sorting theory [70]: the critical fraction is defined as the mixing fraction between convective and environmental air that leads to neutral buoyancy. Mixing with less or more environmental air from this critical fraction leads to positive or negative buoyancy respectively. This division line is expected to play an important role in entrainment detrainment processes. (ii) Relative-humidity dependence of entrainment-detrainment rate: the introduction of such dependence clearly improves model behavior (e.g., [71,72]), although the mechanism behind is not yet well understood. The vertical mass flux profile is strongly controlled by detrainment as originally pointed out by [73]: see also [72,74]) with theoretical arguments provided by [75]. This finding has important consequences for the parameterization of convection: the critical mixing fraction correlates well with the detrainment rate, providing a possibility for taking it as a key parameter [73,74,76]. Unfortunately, almost all of the current parameterizations do not yet take this aspect into account. For example, the Kain and Fritsch scheme [70] assumes that entrainment and detrainment vary in opposite senses as functions of the critical mixing fraction. Some schemes have just begun to take this effect fully into account [73,76]. In spite of this progress, as a whole, unfortunately, we clearly fail to identify any solid theoretical guiding principle for investigating the entrainment detrainment problem. The main problem stems from the fact that a plume is a clear oversimplification of atmospheric convection, as discussed in Q1.6.1 next. Q1.6.1: What is the Precise Physical Meaning of Entrainment and Detrainment? The concept of entrainment is best established under the original context of the entraining plume experiment performed with a water tank by Morton et al. [77]. Once we try to extend this concept to

18 Atmosphere 2015, moist atmospheric convection, we begin to face extensive controversies, some of which are discussed in de-rooy-et al. [58]. In the moist convection context, even a precise physical meaning of the entrainment-detrainment concept is lost, as emphasized by Morton [78]. See Yano [79] for a historical review with extensive references therein. It simply reduces to a method for calculating lateral (and sometimes vertical) mixing crossing the boundaries of the air that is designated as convection. The original entrainment-plume model is based on a premise that the convective plume has a relatively well-defined boundary against the environment, also approximately fixed with time. This idea is schematically well represented in Figure 2 of de Rooy and Siebesma [75]. This basic premise is also well summarized, for example, in the introduction of [80] by comparing this concept (as termed entraining jet in this paper) against the concept of a bubble or thermal. Here, in spite of the recent trend of more emphasizing the detrainment of air from the convective plume, this jet idea, in the sense of assuming a well-defined boundary with the environment, has hardly changed since then. Another important premise, along with the existence of a well-defined boundary, is that the lateral exchange of the air between the convective plume and the environment is performed by eddies of scales much smaller than that of the plume itself. This idea is also schematically well represented by Figure 2 of [75]. The massive detrainment at the cloud top of individual clouds also contributes to the lateral exchange in an important manner. However, do the true atmospheric moist convective systems actually behave in this manner? Our interpretation of Doppler radar measurements of winds given, for example, by Figure 3 of [81], may provide hints to this question. Here, keep in mind that Doppler radar is typically sensitive to precipitation, not cloud-particles, whenever there is precipitation present. Thus, one cannot infer cloud-edge sharpness with most Doppler radar in precipitating convection. Probably the most striking feature of this convective element captured by a series of Doppler radar images with a frequency of every few minutes is its transient behavior without representing any fixed boundary in time. Furthermore, the flows around a convective cloud are subjectively rather laminar. Within the limit of resolution of these radar measurements, we do not see any turbulent looking eddies around the cloud. Instead, these laminar flows appear to provide extensive exchange of mass between the cloud and the environment. The frame (d ) in their figure is probably the best one to make this point with a well-defined laminar inflow at a middle level. Examination of these images does not exclude an obvious possibility that there are extensive turbulent eddies contributing to mixing at the scales unresolved by the radar. However, it is hard to believe that these unresolved small scale eddies are responsible for most of the mixing between convection and the environment. This doubt is particularly justified by the fact that the whole cloud shape changes markedly over time without a well defined fixed convection environment interface. A three-dimensional animation of a boundary-layer convective cloudy plume prepared by Harm Jonker and his collaborators [82] also makes the same point: highly transient nature of the convective plume, from which it appears hard to justify the traditional steadiness hypothesis of the convective plume. Based on such observation, Heus et al. [83] emphasize the existence of a buffer zone (descending shell) between the plume core and the environment. This buffer zone appears to roughly correspond to a fuzzy boundary of a cloud identified in terms of a high water vapor concentration. The concept also appears to be consistent with the interpretation presented above that there is no boundary

19 Atmosphere 2015, fixed in time between the cloud and the environment. Keep in mind that the boundary between the cloud (i.e., visible cloud-particles) and environment is perfectly sharp and extremely well defined at any instant. The main issue here is that it fluctuates in time and has a fractal structure. Of course, the argument above is slightly misleading in the sense that almost everyone would agree with a highly transient nature of realistic atmospheric convection. Moreover, many would also argue that the approximation of convection by a steady plumes adopted for the mass flux convection parameterization, which also leads to a separation of the whole problem into closure and entrainment detrainment (cf. Equation (1)), is a picture emerging only after an ensemble average of those individual clouds that has an equilibrium solution. In other words, schematics such as Figure 2 of [75] should not be taken too literally. Thus, the real question would be how to re construct a steady plume solution under an ensemble averaging procedure for those transient convective clouds with their interfaces with the environment continuously changing with time. Such a systematic procedure is still needed. Q1.6.2: If They Provide Nothing Other Than Artificial Tuning Parameters, How could they be Replaced with More Physically-Based Quantities? Unfortunately, this question is not well posed. On the one hand, entrainment and detrainment are well defined quantities that can be diagnosed objectively from CRM and LES, as already emphasized in T1.5. In this very respect, entrainment and detrainment are far from artificial tuning parameters, but clearly physically given. On the other hand, as emphasized in Q1.6.1, the basic physical mechanism driving these entrainment detrainment processes is far from obvious. At least, the original idea of entrainment proposed by Morton et al. [77] for their laboratory convective plumes does not apply to atmospheric convection in any literal sense. Without such a theoretical basis, it may be rather easier to treat them purely as tuning parameters than anything physically based. An approach that may be more constructive, however, can also be pursued under a variant of the conventional mass flux framework. Note first that the convective profiles can be evaluated knowing only the entrainment rate, without knowing the detrainment rate, as seen by Equation (8). Second, recall that the mass flux, M, consists of two parts: convective vertical velocity, w c, and the fractional area, σ c, for convection, M = ρσ c w c (9) Thus, if we could compute these two quantities separately, there would no longer be a need for knowing entrainment and detrainment rates for use in computing the mass flux via Equation (2). The convective vertical velocity is commonly evaluated by taking Equation (15) of [84]. Clearly this is a historical misquotation, because the formula in concern is derived for a spatially isolated spherical bubble, but not for a steady plume. Nevertheless, this use may be considered a necessary evil in order to evaluate the convective vertical velocity under a mass flux formulation. The equation is formulated without entrainment and detrainment, at least in an explicit manner. (Levine s drag coefficient can be equated to the fractional entrainment rate if the same derivation is repeated under a more formal application of the mass flux formulation (and SCA: cf. [18]).)

20 Atmosphere 2015, The fractional area for convection could, in turn, be evaluated by a fully prognostic version of Equation (2): σ c t = E D M (10) z Of course, this equation retains both entrainment and detrainment. However, Gerard and Geleyn [85] were able to overcome this difficulty by introducing an alternative equation for σ c based on the moist static energy budget (their Equation (11)). In this manner, the mass flux can be evaluated without knowing entrainment and detrainment rates. Note that once the mass flux is known, the entrainment rate may be diagnosed backwards under certain assumptions. (Entrainment would still be required to compute the vertical profile of in-convection variables φ c via Equation (8)). A similar idea can be pursued with a further generalization of the mass flux framework into NAM-SCA, and effectively viewing the convection parameterization as a numerical issue rather than anything physical. In order to represent subgrid-scale convection, we do not want to have too strong convective vertical velocity (or too weak either). In order to control the degree of convective vertical velocity in a desirable manner (from a numerical point of view, in order to make the computations smooth), we need to adjust the fractional area for convection so that convection becomes neither too strong or too weak. Such an adjustment can be performed with a relatively simple numerical procedure without explicitly invoking an entrainment and detrainment rates. Such a formulation is relatively straightforward within NAM SCA, as will be discussed in Q1.8 below. Q1.7: How Strong and How Robust is the Observational Evidence for Self-Organized Criticality of Atmospheric Convection? Empirical studies across a broad range of observational scales have been attempted to characterize aspects of convective phenomena in order to constrain convective parameterizations, especially the closure. Critical properties are identified empirically, which may connect the convection parameterization problem with statistical physics theories of critical phenomena (cf. [86]). A broad range of atmospheric phenomena present scale-free distributions. Particularly, many atmospheric phenomena related to precipitation are associated with many characteristic temporal and spatial scales and present long-range correlations, which may result from the coupling between nonlinear mechanisms at different scales [87]. Peters et al. [88] analyzed high-temporal-resolution precipitation data and defined episodic precipitation events in a similar manner to avalanches in cellular-automaton models. It was found that a distribution of the precipitation event sizes (integrated rain rate over duration of the event) follows a power law over several orders of magnitude. A power-law distribution suggests criticality, but it is not a sufficient condition because trivial non critical mechanisms can also lead to power laws [89]. Peters and Neelin [90] provided further evidence using TRMM satellite data over tropical oceans. A relationship between the satellite estimated precipitation and the column integrated water vapor is compatible with a continuous phase transition, in which large areas enter a convectively active phase above a critical value of column integrated water vapor. Furthermore, they showed that precipitation events tend to be concentrated around the critical point. The precipitation variance was also found the largest around this point. These results can be interpreted in terms of a departure from