Butadiene History Repeats Itself: The Past Holds the Key to Future Supply

Transcription

1 Mike Bloesch Vice President Strategic Initiatives TPC Group History Repeats Itself: The Past Holds the Key to Future Supply Forward Looking Statements & Non-GAAP Financial Measures This presentation may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the U.S. securities laws. These statements include assumptions, expectations, predictions, intentions or beliefs about future events, particularly statements that may relate to future operating results, existing and expected competition, market factors that may impact financial performance, and plans related to strategic alternatives or future expansion activities and capital expenditures. Although TPC Group believes that such statements are based on reasonable assumptions, no assurance can be given that such statements will prove to have been correct. A number of factors could cause actual results to vary materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements, including risks and uncertainties such as volatility in the petrochemicals industry, limitations on the Company s access to capital, the effects of competition, leverage and debt service, general economic conditions, litigation and governmental investigations, and extensive environmental, health and safety laws and regulations. TPC Group expressly disclaims any obligation to update any forward-looking statements contained herein to reflect events or circumstances that may arise after the date of this presentation. This presentation may also include non-gaap financial information. A reconciliation of non-gaap financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures, as well as additional detail regarding the utility of such non-gaap financial information, is included in the Appendix. 1

2 Agenda TPC Group overview History of butadiene production Why the world needs on-purpose butadiene Various production routes Different approaches for different continents TPC Group solution TPC Group Overview Company Description Market leader in service-based processing, infrastructure and logistics for the C4 hydrocarbons industry C4 Processing 82% Revenue by Segment (1) C4 Processing services include crude C4 off-take, aggregation, storage, separation, purification and ratable transport and delivery of C4 components to manufacturing end-users in a variety of industry segments (1) Calendar 2012 Performance Products 18% Performance Products consists of C4 and C3 derivatives for fuels, fuel and lubricant additives and a variety of other end uses Headquartered din Houston, Texas, the Company has three manufacturing facilities along the Gulf Coast, with 820 employees and contractors Revenue by End Market (2) Plastics 6% Fuels 20% Lube & Fuel Additives 7% For Calendar 2012, TPC recorded Revenues of $2.3B Synthetic Rubber 35% (2) Based on TPC estimates as of December 2011 (3) Includes nylon, surfactants and latex Other 32% 2

3 Well Positioned for the Future Market Leader in C4 Hydrocarbons Growth Drivers Stable, consistent cash flows Service-based model Unique logistics and infrastructure Cash Flow Operational Efficiency Top line growth Growth in fees and margins Growing end-user markets Capital Investment On Purpose Isobutylene HR-PIB expansion On Purpose Increasing Return on Invested Capital Disciplined, experienced management Strong balance sheet Market leadership in majority of product lines Market leader in C4 Processing with approximately 30% share of capacity Relationships with every nonintegrated ethylene producer in North America Market leader in butene-1 with 35% share Sales Volumes North America F 4% E 7% TPC 30% A 21% B 15% C 15% D 8% PIB Capacity North America TPC 36% C 14% B 23% North American Market Positions A 27% Among North America s largest merchant producers of isobutylene and derivatives IP holder and sole merchant producer of highly reactive polyisobutylene (HR-PIB) Capacity Product Capacity Share 1,400 27% Butene % HR-Polyisobutylene % Diisobutylene % 3

4 Service-based processor & logistics provider BD BD B1 Bn BD Purified C4 Components B1 Elastomers Plastics Ethylene Steam Cracker Mixed C4 Co-product ibl BD B2 ibl BD BD Separation Bn BD Purification BD BD BD B2 B1 BD Ot Raffinates ibl B2 Bn Ma arkets Nylons Fuels PIB Lube Additives Isobutylene Propylene Derivatives Production DIB Prop Deriv Ma arkets Plasticizers Surfactants HPIB A leading service-based processor and infrastructure and logistics provider of value-added products derived from C 4 hydrocarbons 7 Strategic assets benefit the industry Corporate Offices Lake Charles Terminal Houston Operations Baytown Operations Port Neches Operations 2.4 B lbs/yr Mixed C4 Processing 85 M lbs/yr Nonene 1.8 B lbs/yr Mixed C4 Processing 240 M lbs/yr PIB 50 M lbs/yr Tetramer 257 acres 165 acres 154 acres Extensive pipeline network Substantial on and off site storage facilities Steam & electrical co-generation (35 MW) Exclusive deepwater docks on ship channel Large rail rack & railcar storage yard NA s largest stand-alone Nonene plant Extensive rail rack & railcar storage yard Pipeline access to customer 3 rd party terminaling Extensive pipeline network Substantial storage facilities Deep water dock facilities Extensive rail rack & railcar storage yard Managing seamless flows of C4 stream to highest value end uses 4

5 TPC Group Ownership Acquired by First Reserve & SK Capital December 20, 2012 Value Proposition Reliable, secure and efficient infrastructure Strong connectivity between broad range of Crude C4 sources and array of end use markets Operational excellence and infrastructure investment focus Independent, merchant player Industry-focused solutions Meeting current and future customer needs for critical products in short supply Process and product technology leadership Long term perspective Strong balance sheet and pre-funded capital plan New ownership aligned for the long term Butene-1 Fuel Products/MTBE Polyisobutylene Isobutylene Nonene/Tetramer 5

6 History of Production He who doesn t know history is. destined to repeat it Santayna (variant) He who does know history may want tt to repeat tit! industry??? Commercial Production Evolution 1863 Bio-based? (thermal cracking of amyl alcohol) France 1863 Bio-based? (thermal cracking of amyl alcohol) France 1925 Acetylene (IG Farben) Germany 1925 Acetylene (IG Farben) Germany 1928 Ethanol (Lebedev) 1928 Ethanol (Lebedev) Russia Russia 1942 Butane (Dehydrogenation) 1942 Butane (Dehydrogenation) U.S. U.S Butene (OXO-D (OXO-D TM ) US U.S. 1970s Steam cracker by-product Global 6

7 Why the World Needs On-Purpose The hardest part of solving any problem is acknowledging that one exists. Anonymous (Also the first tenet of most twelve step programs ) How Real is the Problem? Base Case estimates 2,800 kmt/yr of On-Purpose BD requirement by 2025 Base Case: 4.1% 8.8%, 16.2%) Ethylene Growth Rate: 3.5% Source: IHS Single Client Study Low probability that only new butadiene extraction capacity could meet growth Eliminating on-purpose volume gap would require demand destruction of 14% or 3% butadiene growth rate +/- 0.5% change in global butadiene demand equals +/- 1,000 kmt volume change Key risk: Assumption that majority of future global ethylene based on naphtha 7

8 North America Compounds the Issue» Upstream producers focus on NGL rich shale plays Fractionation margins drive development» Natural gas discounted to oil (BTU basis) Ethane fuel alternative low priced» Existing infrastructure leveraged Pipelines, gas plants, storage Eagle Ford close proximity to chemical assets % BTU Price Discount U.S. Natural Gas vs. Brent Crude Oil U.S. NGL Production 15% 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% 15% 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% 75% 75% 90% 90% Source: IHS Source: Bentek Energy/ TM&C NA Ethylene Production Increasing» Dow Chemical (April 2011) Restart St. Charles Cracker (end 2012) New ethylene cracker (2017) Fractionation Freeport, Marcellus to Louisiana Propane Dehydro (2015); New Prop Dehydro Technology (2018) Increasing ethane flexibility at Plaquemine (2014) and Freeport (2016)» Formosa (April 2011) $2.1 billion capital investment at Point Comfort (2014 / 2015) Ethylene expansion (+28%) +450,000 MT Propane dehydro (+54%) +400,000 MT Upstream fractionation & derivative (VCM,EDC,PVC) expansion» Braskem (April 2011) Wants new USGC Greenfield Ethylene and Polyethylene Plant (NYSE Event)» CPChem (March 2011) 3.3 billion pound/yr Ethane Cracker on USGC (2014 /2015)» Braskem (April 2011) Mexico Ethylene XXI JV Braskem and IDESA (65/35) 2 billion pound ethylene (2014)» Shell (June 2011) Grass roots cracker-appalachia» BFLP (December 2011) 50% ethane cracking capacity after completion of April 14, 2011 outage» Westlake (April 2011) Calvert City Cracker conversion from propane to ethane + potential expansion Expand capacity Lake Charles by 240 MM lb (2012) 2nd Lake Charles Expansion (2014)» Ineos (March 2011) 250 MM lb/yr debottleneck study at Chocolate Bayou» Nova (Several) May Range Resources MOU ethane supply (Sarnia) March Williams 17,000 bbl/day ethane/ethylene mix of Joffre March Caiman Energy Ethane 20,000 bbl/day ethane (Sarnia)» Williams (September 2011) Ethylene expansion of Geismar, LA production facility +600 million lbs/year (2013)» Sasol (November 2011) Feasibility study to explore building $3.5 billion- $4.5 billion ethylene production site in Louisiana» LyondellBasell (Several) 500 MM lb/yr ethane debottleneck at Channelview 850 MM lb/yr ethane debottleneck at La Porte 250 MM lb/yr expansion at Channelview 800 MM lb/yr expansion at Corpus Christi for 2015» Aither Chemicals (January 2012) Catalytic cracking technology to convert ethane from Marcellus Shale into ethylene +300,000 MT» Exxon Mobil (June 2012) 3.3 billion lb/yr ethylene-capacity steam cracker at Baytown complex 8

9 but Production is not 130% 120% 110% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% Ethylene B/E Crude C4 Source: IHS We have located the culprit Typical C4 Production From Various Cracker Feedstocks Pounds per p 100 Pound of Ethylene y Naphtha to Ethane: - 89% Reduction in CC4-81% Reduction in BD Ethane Propane Butane Light Naphtha Gas Oil Source: IHS Data Isobutylene Butene-1 Butene-2 Butanes ~ 9

10 The global shortfall will grow over time Crackers in North America will continue to lighten feedslates Shale gas exists globally Already drilling in Poland Announced in China & Argentina May take some time, but will be done Chinese coal to olefins Competitive ethylene Zero butadiene NA will continue to be a net importer But only butadiene produced at a reasonable cost will keep our rubber production competitive! Net North American Imports kmt / Yr Range of TPC Group Production Analysis Source: NA Trade Statistics, CTC International 10

11 Various Production Routes Why does your smartphone know the exact distance to New York, yet still give you three totally different routes to get there??? Depends on if best is defined as fastest, shortest, easiest, most green, or most scenic... On-Purpose (OPBD) Roadmap Normal Butane Ethylene By-Product C4 Olefins (steam cracker & refinery) Dehydrogenation TPC Group Dimerization Distillation Fermentation & Dehydration Dehydrogenation TPC Group N-butene OXO-D TM (Oxidative Dehydrogenation) TPC Group QPEC (Oxidative Dehydrogenation) Chinese Traditional Routes Bio-based Routes Extraction Many different technologies, but only five primary feedstocks Finished Sugar (biomass) Fermentation 1,4-BDO Dehydration Fermentation Succinic Acid Hydrogenolysis Distillation Ethanol Dehydrogenation & Dehydration 11

12 Ethanol First developed in late 1920s in Russia by Lebedev Two step process improved efficiency Used in Russia, China, India, & US New capacity announced by Showa Denka for Japan Ethanol Dehydrogenation & Dehydration Distillation Finished Pros Proven technology Lower investment cost Feedstock available & transportable Suited for small applications Cons Higher feedstock & operating cost than C4 Selectivity around 40% Many by-products (including water) All shut down in US in 1950s Sugar (biomass) At least four different routes being explored Most require many processing steps Sugar (biomass) Fermentation & Dehydration Fermentation N-butene 1,4-BDO OXO-D TM (Oxidative Dehydrogenation) Dehydration Extraction Distillation Finished Fermentation Succinic Acid Hydrogenolysis Pros Cons Not oil based Not commercially proven Laboratory work progressing Many likely to be years away Sugar does not equal biomass Economics??? 12

13 By-product C4 Olefins Good fit for China (800 kmt capacity online by end 2013) Two primary technologies OXO-D TM & QPEC Used in Russia, China, &US By-Product C4 Olefins (steam cracker & refinery) Distillation QPEC (Oxidative Dehydrogenation) Extraction Finished Pros Proven technology Very efficient; 85+% selectivityit Scalable Cons Energy intensive Closely held technology Feedstock has high value for alkylate production By-products have no value Chinese OPBD generally on-track Construction quality appears good Technology appears to work Environmental standards not as stringent Feedstock C4 olefins available at reasonable pricing Very low alkylate production by refineries for gasoline Feedstock supply will become key going forward; lots of developing uses including export of C4 olefins Objective is to back integrate for their rubber plants, not butadiene sales Longer term, feedstock cost / supply may challenge economics 13

14 Natural gas liquids (NGLs) Very good fit for shale revolution Used in Russia & US Dehydrogenation TPC Group Normal Butane Ethylene Dehydrogenation TPC Group Dimerization OXO-D TM (Oxidative Dehydrogenation) TPC Group Extraction Finished Pros Proven technology Lowest feedstock cost Low operating cost Scalable High selectivity Cons Added capital cost to produce butylenes Closely held technology TPC Group Solution TPC seeks to find the best overall solution to the butadiene shortage in the simplest and most capital efficient i manner possible. Gentlemen, we are headed back to the future! 14

15 TPC Group OPBD Project Objective Leverage existing capabilities Assets Two independent butadiene production / C4 processing sites Connected by pipeline & marine Large amount of land for expansion Five butadiene extraction trains (two of which are idle) Idle dehydrogenation unit Extensive infrastructure 200 mile butadiene pipeline network Pipeline connectivity to Mt. Belvieu for NGL supply Pipeline connectivity to local producers for additional olefins Five ship & barge docks 35 railcar loading spots & 500 railcar storage yard 75,000+ MT above ground C4 storage, in addition to salt dome storage Favorable utilities position EHS&S handling capabilities; 1 ppb fenceline measurement Commercially Proven Technology Normal butane to butadiene via dehydrogenation (practiced for 15+ years) Normal butane to butenes via dehydrogenation (practiced for 45 years) N-butene to butadiene via OXO-D TM (practiced for 45 years) TPC Group OPBD Project Objective (cont d) Coupled with cost advantaged NGL feedstocks 95% 90% Normal Butane pricing relative to crude oil 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% Source: IHS

16 TPC Group OPBD Project Objective (cont d) To produce butadiene to keep rubber producers competitive globally Up to 270, MT production capacity, dependent d on demand d Targeting late 2016 start-up TCEQ & EPA now working together Permitting timeframes now appear shorter Located on Texas Gulf Coast Heart of butadiene demand in US Extensive logistics delivery capability Study the past, if you would divine the future - Confucius The distinction between the past, present, and future is only a stubbornly persistent illusion. - Albert Einstein The future ain t what it used to be! - Yogi Berra 16

17 Mike Bloesch Vice President Strategic Initiatives TPC Group History Repeats Itself: The Past Holds the Key to Future Supply 17