Gas/NGL Developments from Western Canada to the US Midwest

Transcription

1 Gas/NGL Developments from Western Canada to the US Midwest Purvin & Gertz International LPG Seminar March 7, 2012 Tim Stauft, President Aux Sable Canada

2 About Alliance/Aux Sable Alliance is a 1.6 bcf/d high pressure, rich gas (1100 btu/cf) gathering and transmission system, transporting gas from AB/BC to the Chicago area Aux Sable holds all NGL extraction rights on Alliance Aux Sable owns and operates a 2.1 bcf/d world scale extraction/frac plant at terminus of Alliance Pipeline (Channahon, IL) Aux Sable Midstream has purchased and operates the Palermo Conditioning Plant and the Prairie Rose Pipeline in North Dakota Aux Sable Canada: o Performs a supply function for the Channahon plant attracting rich gas and NGLs onto Alliance (Eg. Trilogy, Cequence announcements) o Developing a fee-based energy processing business, including: Heartland Offgas Plant Septimus Gas Plant & Pipeline o Owned by Enbridge and Veresen Inc. Slide 2

3 Alliance-Aux Sable System Map Slide 3

4 Slide 4 The Push to Develop Rich Gas and NGLs Shale gas plays are driving growth in gas reserves across North America but low gas prices make drilling economics marginal Improvements in drilling technologies and record high frac spread (NGL vs gas prices) have focused producers activities on developing unconventional, rich gas resources For rich gas to be valuable, NGLs must be recovered, processed and transported to market New rich gas resource plays are isolated from existing NGL infrastructure and markets and costly field or processing infrastructure is required Aux Sable is actively working with producers to provide options for rich gas/ngls to reach market

5 North American Full-cycle Unit Cost of New Supply 2011 Source: IHS CERA, 2012 Without NGL credit, natural gas will be shut-in Slide 5

6 US$/MMBtu US$/MMBtu Historical Frac Spread Henry Hub and WTI Prices Energy Spread: WTI - Henry Hub Henry Hub Cash Price WTI Cushing Crude-to-gas price ratio is a key component in driving frac spreads & development/processing of rich gas plays Slide 6

7 Slide 7 Growth in Unconventional Gas Production Source: IHS CERA, 2012

8 Bcf/d Slide 8 US and Canada Shale Gas Production Western Canada All Other US Eagle Ford Bakken Utica Marcellus Haynesville /1 Fayetteville Barnett Woodford Source: ICF International

9 NGL Markets and Supply Basins Sarnia Conway Mont Belvieu Source: Bentek Slide 9

10 North American NGL Infrastructure Edm/FSK ALLIANCE Empress PTC ENBRIDGE COCHIN Sarnia ENTERPRISE Conway Chicago ONEOK ENTERPRISE Salt Storage Mont Belvieu Slide 10

11 Regional Growth in NGL Production Relative to 2010 (millions of gallons/yr) Western Canada Rocky Mountain North and South Dakota (Bakken) Other West Texas, NM Permian and Oklahoma- Cushing Northeast/Mid-Atlantic (Marcellus) Source: ICF International Gulf Coast Texas and Louisiana Slide 11

12 C2 Price (uscpg) Differential (uscpg) Conway/Mt Belvieu Ethane Prices MB Purity - E/P MB E/P - Con E/P MB Purity MB E/P Conway E/P

13 uscpg uscpg Conway/Mt Belvieu Propane Prices Mont Belvieu Spot Propane (uscpg) Conway Spot (uscpg) (2.00) (4.00) (6.00) Differential Slide 13

14 Natural Gas and NGL Value Chain Natural Gas Production Gathering Processing & Treating Natural Gas Transmission Straddle Plant Natural Gas Transmission NGL Raw Mix Transportation C 2+ Natural Gas Storage C 2+ or C 3+ NGL Fractionation Natural Gas Distribution C 2+ or C 3+ NGL Storage Residential/ Commercial/ Industrial Power Plants NGL Product Transportation Refined Products Petrochem Industry Residential/ Commercial Slide 14

15 Aux Sable/Alliance Value Chain Natural Gas Production Processing & Treating Natural Gas Storage NGL Product Transportation Natural Gas Distribution Refined Products Petrochem Industry Residential/ Commercial Residential/ Commercial/ Industrial Power Plants Slide 15

16 Alberta NGL Facilities and Capacity Estimated Capacity Location (MMcf/d) Cochrane 2,500 Empress 9,700 Other 1,182 Total 13,382 Map Source: IHS Purvin & Gertz Slide 16

17 BBL/day De-Eth Utilization - Alberta Straddle Plants 175, , , , , , , , , , , Source: ERCB data Less ethane being processed at straddle plants (Empress and Cochrane) Ethane capacity needed elsewhere Slide 17

18 Slide 18 Aux Sable Rich Gas Premiums Aux Sable rich gas premiums provide value to gas producers for NGLs, allowing producers to: Avoid costly field plant investments Capture NGL value not available on NGTL system Direct greater resources to gas drilling activities Increase netbacks at plantgate Allows producer to record barrel reserves The Channahan/NGL value proposition gives ASC a competitive advantage Greater connectivity for BC/Alberta NGLs to US markets increases value of NGLs to all producers Recent rich gas premiums: TRILOGY: Eliminates 2011 and 2012 capital expenditures of approximately $55 Million for new deep-cut gas plant CEQUENCE: Increase in realized product price ; Resulting increase to recent netbacks of approximately $3.00 per boe

19 Slide 19 Summary Opportunities exist for optimizing rich gas value To capture this value, NGLs need to be recovered, processed and transported to market Midstream infrastructure investments are required Aux Sable is well positioned and offers competitive NGL recovery options to producers