Moving the Future on Natural G S. William Freeman Energy Consultant wfreeman4@gmail.com

Transcription

1 Moving the Future on Natural G S William Freeman Energy Consultant wfreeman4@gmail.com

2 VISA OR MASTERCARD?

3 Global Competition Increasing 2009 to 2015 CHINA 2.2 up to 10.1 Bbl/Person INDIA 0.9 up to 5.4 Bbl/Person cvfvf Chinese vehicle ownership per capita is estimated to be where the U.S. was in Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review, 2009

4 America on the Bottle US consumes 23% of the world s Petroleum. By 2020, the IEA predicts world oil consumption will increase 60% This does not take production decreases into account This means we will need 4 more Saudi Arabias Where will they be? To keep pace with demand and depletion, the world must add 64 million barrels of production per day until 2020: This growth will require $350 billion per year on new projects OPEC only spent $390 billion in total on new projects from Price inputs based upon historical operating information

5 GLOBAL COMPETITION INCREASING Source: ExxonMobil The 2013 Outlook for Energy: A view to 2040

6 Cody Gammon Bakken Baxter/Mancos Mowry Niobrara Antrim Utica Marcellus Mulky Lewis Fayetteville Woodford Barnett/Woodford Barnett Haynesville Eagle Ford/Pearsall Floyd-Neal 90% Supply from U.S. 99% Supply is from N. America Natural gas producing states (32) Non-producing state (18)

7 Natural Gas is An Answer To Rising Fuel Prices $/bbl Price of Oil vs. Natural Gas $/mcf *(Energy Feedstock Ratio: CNG 8:1, LNG 7:1) If NYMEX is $4.00/mcf CNG will be $1.50/dge ($0.50) LNG will be $2.00/dge ($0.57) If NYMEX is $8.00/mcf CNG will be $2.00/dge ($1.00) LNG will be $2.50/dge ($1.14) If NYMEX is $12.00/mcf CNG will be $2.50/dge ($1.50) LNG will be $3.00/dge ($1.71)

8 Commercial development of shale resources will provide predictable, sustainable price environments for Shale Production Era Old Sustainable Price Level Sustainable Price Band Encourages and Enables Long- Term Capital Investment Environment; Sustainability Will Benefit Both Producers and Consumers Unsustainable Price Band Inhibits Long- Term Capital Investment and Development; Rigs Lay Down Price Volatility Increases Due to Supply Declines. Consumers Are Impacted Detrimentally

9 Natural Gas Vehicles Are An Answer To Rising Fuel Prices Gasoline Shaded Area Propane Natural Gas (GGE) Source: DOE Clean Cities Alternative Fuel Price Report - January 2013

10 Price Stability Example Natural $4.00 per MCF Natural $8.00 per MCF INPUT COST INPUT COST Natural Gas (divide by 8) $0.50 Transport Costs & Fees $0.20 Electricity Costs per GGE $0.10 Maintenance per GGE $0.20 Federal and State Taxes $0.25 Fuel Card Fees per GGE $0.05 Retailer Profit Margin $0.40 CNG at the Pump $1.70 Natural Gas (divide 8) $1.00 Transport Costs & Fees $0.20 Electricity Costs per GGE $0.10 Maintenance per GGE $0.20 Federal and State Taxes $0.25 Fuel Card Fees per GGE $0.05 Retailer Profit Margin $0.40 CNG at the Pump $2.20 The Price per MCF on August 21, 2013 was $3.54 Using these same numbers, the price per gge would be $1.64

11 FUEL PRICE DIFFERENTIAL FORECAST Source: TIAX Report : U.S. and Canadian Natural Gas Vehicle Market Analysis, May 2, 2011

12 Today s Objectives 1. World Competition for Energy Resources 2. Domestic Natural Gas Abundance a) Natural Gas Price Stability 3. Global NGV s a) Why the world is converting to Natural Gas b) Natural Gas Vehicle Options 4. Fleet Owner s Dream 5. Detroit s NGV Plans 6. Conversion Cost 7. Break-Even Analysis a) Don t Forget the Residual! 8. Chesapeake Fleet Example 9. What s Inside an NGV? 10. Infrastructure a) Retail vs Private

13 WHERE IN THE WORLD? Original Source:

14 Natural Gas Stations in Pennsylvania

15 NATURAL GAS VEHICLES BY REGION Source: NGV Global,

16 GM CNG VEHICLES AVAILABLE GLOBALLY

17 CHRYSLER GROUP/FIAT NGVS

18 NGVs with Zero cargo space loss

19 NATURAL GAS IN TRANSPORTATION Natural Gas is CLEAN Mostly methane, only one carbon atom Reduces GHG by 21-27% Reduces particulate matter by up to 95% Natural Gas is SAFE Higher ignition temperature than diesel or gasoline ( degrees F) Narrow range of oxygen/fuel combustion ratio (5-15%) Highly engineered tanks and components Lighter than air Dissipates into atmosphere quickly Natural Gas is POWERFUL Octane rating of ~130 HD natural gas engines have equivalent torque and horsepower to diesel counterparts Source: US Dept. of Energy Argonne National Laboratory Report: A Full-Cycle Analysis of Energy and Emissions Impacts of Transportation Fuels Produced from Natural Gas, Dec. 1999

20 THE BENEFITS OF NATURAL GAS VEHICLES NGVs are proven and reliable 15 million NGVs in use worldwide (only 120,000 in the U.S.) Many fleets are already adopting 11,000 transit buses (1 in 4 on order) 4,000 refuse trucks (40% of new orders) 3,000 school buses 20,000 medium duty vehicles 30,000 light duty vehicles NGVs are quiet HD 80-90% lower DB than diesel NGV life-cycle costs are lower Fuel Costs Maintenance Costs

21 CNG AND LNG BASICS

22 TODAY S OBJECTIVES 1. World Competition for Energy Resources 2. Domestic Natural Gas Abundance a) Natural Gas Price Stability 3. Global NGV s a) Why the world is converting to Natural Gas b) Natural Gas Vehicle Options 4. Fleet Owner s Dream 5. Detroit s NGV Plans 6. Conversion Cost 7. Break-Even Analysis a) Don t Forget the Residual 8. What s Inside an NGV? 9. Infrastructure a) Retail vs Private

23 NGVS ARE A FLEET OWNER S DREAM Local/State Governments Airports Terminal Buses, Shuttles, Taxis, Tarmac Vehicles Refuse Collection, Recycling Transit City Buses, Maintenance, Shuttles School Districts Buses, Vans, Maintenance Short Haul Delivery Food & Beverage Distributors, Postal, Newspapers, Linens, Uniforms, Regional Freight Utilities & Telecom Gas/Electric/Water, Communications Small Businesses Plumbers, Electricians, Florists, Service Companies Energy Companies

24 Ford: Alternative Fuel Buyers Guide OEM Gaseous Engine Solutions 2.0L 4.6L 5.4L 6.8L 4,965 lbs GVWR 36,000 lbs GVWR 1. Dealer and customer determine appropriate vehicle based on application, payload and range 2. Dealer places vehicle order, and vehicle is delivered to upfitter 3. Upfitter installs alternative fuel components and system 4. Vehicle is delivered to dealer and dealer delivers vehicle to customer

25 FORD F150: COMING Q L V6 only

26 CHEVROLET SILVERADO AND GMC SIERRA Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra 2500 GM is currently taking orders for MY 2013 GM predicts a 650-mile range between fill-ups

27 RAM 2500 HD CNG PICKUP

28 AMERICAN HONDA CIVIC GX Introduced in 1998 Produced on the same factory line in Indiana as the other 4-door Civics Same factory warranty, same 5-star safety rating GGE = approximately 8 gallons 27 mpg city / 38 mpg highway / 31 mpg combined The Honda Civic Natural gas was named Greenest vehicle by the ACEEE (American Council for Energy-Efficient Economy) for 8 years in a row!

29 OVER-THE-ROAD PLATFORM OFFERINGS Cummins Westport ISL-G 8.9L Volvo Kenworth T440 Kenworth T800SH Kenworth W900S Freightliner M2 Peterbilt 384 International Transtar, Workstar Cummins Westport ISX-G 11.9L Volvo VN Series Mack Pinnacle Kenworth T660 Freightliner Cascadia Peterbilt International Prostar+, Workstar Westport HD GX 15L Kenworth T800 Peterbilt 386 Peterbilt 388

30 PICKUP BREAK EVEN ANALYSIS Ford F mpg 30,000 miles per year 2,000 GGE/year Cost Premium: $9,000 OK Tax Credit: $4,500 Bi-Fuel CNG/Gasoline At Fuel Differential of $1.50 Simple payback in 1.5 years (w/ tax credit) Simple payback in 3 years (w/o tax credit) Net Life Cycle Savings: $10,500 5 year lifespan

31 CONCERNED ABOUT CNG RESALE VALUE? Don t be; Resale value of cng vehicles are promising!!! Vehicle Type Mileage Fair Market Value Gross Sale Premium CNG Kit Residual Value Series 4WD 89.2K $16,800 $22,000 $5, % Series 4WD 86.6K $17,000 $22,900 $5, % Series 4WD 85.9K $17,100 $22,200 $5, % Series 4WD 109.3K $16,500 $20,000 $3, % Series 4WD 92.3K $17,000 $22,700 $5, % Series 4WD 60.4K $20,000 $24,900 $4, % Series 4WD 90.5K $17,250 $22,900 $5, % Series 4WD 98.5K $16,500 $21,200 $4, % Series 4WD 100.5K $16,500 $22,300 $5, % Series 4WD 93.7K $16,500 $22,600 $6, % Series 4WD 106.5K $16,500 $21,200 $4, % Series 4WD 98.7K $15,100 $21,500 $6, % Series 4WD 98.5K $16,500 $20,000 $3, % Series 4WD 5K $23,300 $27,100 $3, % 2009 HONDA CIVIC 3K $15,500 $18,600 $3, % 2009 HONDA CIVIC 25.3K $14,700 $18,000 $3, % 2009 HONDA CIVIC 73.4K $8,700 $14,700 $6, % 2009 HONDA CIVIC 87.1K $7,900 $14,000 $6, % 2009 HONDA CIVIC 86.6K $7,900 $14,000 $6, % 2009 HONDA CIVIC 140.1K $4,200 $7,700 $3, % Average Residual 61.0% Truck Incremental CNG Conversion Kit Cost $9,000 Honda Incremental CNG Factory Option Cost $6,500

32 Complete Life Cycle Cost 2500 Series Cost Savings Per 13 MPG $0.04 Savings Per GGE $1.25 $1.50 $2.00 Total Mileage 90k Miles 150k Miles 175k Miles 90k Miles 150k Miles 175k Miles 90k Miles 150k Miles 175k Miles Vehicle Purchase Price $46,530 $46,530 $46,530 $46,530 $46,530 $46,530 $46,530 $46,530 $46,530 Resale Value ($23,265) ($13,959) ($11,633) ($23,265) ($13,959) ($11,633) ($23,265) ($13,959) ($11,633) Resale Value % 50% 30% 25% 50% 30% 25% 50% 30% 25% Total Fuel Spend $14,538 $24,231 $28,269 $14,885 $24,808 $28,942 $15,577 $25,962 $30,288 Total Fuel Gallons Purchase 6,923 11,538 13,462 6,923 11,538 13,462 6,923 11,538 13,462 CNG Utilization 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% Total Maintenance $7,000 $16,000 $20,000 $7,000 $16,000 $20,000 $7,000 $16,000 $20,000 Total Operating Cost $21,538 $40,231 $48,269 $21,885 $40,808 $48,942 $22,577 $41,962 $50,288 Operating Cost Per Mile $0.24 $0.27 $0.28 $0.24 $0.27 $0.28 $0.25 $0.28 $0.29 Total Life Cycle Cost w/o Tax Credit $44,803 $72,802 $83,167 $45,150 $73,379 $83,840 $45,842 $74,533 $85,186 Total Cost Per Mile w/o Tax Credit $0.50 $0.49 $0.48 $0.50 $0.49 $0.48 $0.51 $0.50 $0.49 Total Life Cycle Cost Benefit Gas vs. Bi-Fuel CNG w/o Tax Credit ($2,433) ($5,252) ($6,727) ($3,818) ($7,560) ($9,419) ($6,587) ($12,176) ($14,803) Cost Per Mile Benefit Gas vs. Bi-Fuel CNG w/o Tax Credit ($0.03) ($0.04) ($0.04) ($0.04) ($0.05) ($0.05) ($0.07) ($0.08) ($0.08) Cost Per Mile Benefit Gas vs. Bi-Fuel CNG w/ Tax Credit ($0.08) ($0.06) ($0.06) ($0.09) ($0.08) ($0.08) ($0.12) ($0.11) ($0.11)

33 CNG CONVERSION KIT AFFORDABILITY Note: Cost excludes any State or Federal Tax Credits

34 RETAILERS ARE INTERESTED IN CNG 4,900 6,523 List retailers represent over 12,400 total locations

35 MOU SIGNED BY MULTIPLE GOVERNORS Governors sign Memorandum of Understanding on November 9, 2011 to convert their states transportation fleets to CNG. 16 Governors joined WY, CO, UT, NM, OK, TX, AR, LA, MS, TN, KY, VA, PA, ME, OH, WV 23 State Purchasing Directors Dealers in 28 states are participating Goal is to create a critical mass of fleet vehicle purchases to entice auto makers to manufacture more affordable NGVs. Total fleet between states of more than 100,000 vehicles Learn more at:

36 Contact Information William Freeman Energy Consultant