Séminaire "géopolitique de l'énergie"

Transcription

1 Séminaire mensuel énergie Sciences Po CERI 13 mars 2015 Séminaire "géopolitique de l'énergie" Samuele Furfari Commission Européenne Université Libre de Bruxelles 1/

2 L'Union de l'énergie A secure, sustainable, competitive, affordable energy for every European / Source: Directorate-General for Energy

3 Concrete actions and initiatives 3/ Source: Directorate-General for Energy

4 How and for whom? Article Solidarity and trust Article 194 speaking with one voice in global affairs An integrated continent-wide energy system Sustainable, low-carbon and climate-friendly economy For whom? 1. Strong, innovative and competitive European economy 2. Citizens taking ownership of the energy transition 4 4/ Source: Directorate-General for Energy

5 1 Secure supplies We have to become less dependent on energy from outside the EU increasing transparency on gas supply diversifying sources, supplies and routes working together on security of supply developing a stronger European role in global energy markets. 5 5/ Source: Directorate-General for Energy

6 Secure supplies :Concrete actions Revision of security of gas supply regulation Comprehensive LNG strategy Develop alternative suppliers, including Southern Gas Corridor and with the Mediterranean Revision of the Decision on Intergovernmental Agreements EU Energy and climate policy diplomacy and trade policy 6 6/ Source: Directorate-General for Energy

7 2 Internal energy market Energy should flow freely across the EU without any technical or regulatory barriers 2 connecting markets through interconnections implementing and upgrading the internal market's software enhancing regional cooperation empowering consumers. 7 7/ Source: Directorate-General for Energy

8 Concrete actions for the Internal energy market Implementation of major infrastructure projects (PCIs) Energy Infrastructure Forum Legislation on security of supply for electricity European electricity market design Reinforced European regulatory framework Guidance on regional cooperation Analysis of Energy prices and costs Vulnerable consumers protection 8 8/ Source: Directorate-General for Energy

9 3 Energy efficiency first Rethink energy efficiency increasing energy efficiency in particular in the building sector promoting an energy-efficient and decarbonized transport sector efficient products. 9 9/ Source: Directorate-General for Energy

10 Concrete actions for energy efficiency Review the Energy Efficiency Directive Review the Energy Perfromance Building Directive Review the Energy Labelling and Ecodesign Directives Strengthened financial instruments to support investments in energy efficiency EU strategy for Heating and Cooling 10 10/ Source: Directorate-General for Energy

11 4 Emissions reduction An ambitious climate policy is an integral part of our Energy Union 4 to enforce the 2030 energy and climate framework becoming the number one in renewables / Source: Directorate-General for Energy

12 Concrete actions for emissions reduction Legislation to achieve the 40% GHG reduction target (both in ETS and non ETS) Renewable Energy Package: RES directive revision, best practices for selfconsumption and support schemes Comprehensive road transport package Increased deployment of alternative fuels and clean vehicles 12 12/ Source: Directorate-General for Energy

13 5 Research & innovation Developing EU technological leadership in low carbon technologies / Source: Directorate-General for Energy

14 Research & innovation :Concrete actions Integrated SET Plan, including smart cities and smart financing Strategic transport research and innovation R&I agenda Initiative on EU global technology and innovation leadership 14 14/ Source: Directorate-General for Energy

15 The Commission will launch a dynamic governance process for the European Energy Union Integrated energy and climate governance Streamlined planning and reporting Deepen MS cooperation, improved data analysis and intelligence Successful implementation depends on the political commitment of all actors concerned, including EU institutions and Member States! Annual reporting to the EP and Council 15 15/ Source: Directorate-General for Energy

16 Énergie = travail 16/

17 Bio! 2,7 milliards! 17/

18 1.3 G sans électricité dans le monde Access to electricity in sub-saharan Africa Million Population with electricity access Population without electricity access In sub-saharan Africa, 620 million people two-thirds of the population live without electricity. Only a handful of countries have electrification rates above 50% Nearly one billion people gain access to electricity, but this still leaves 530 million, primarily in rural communities, without power in /

19 Consommation mondiale d'énergie Mtoe Nucléaire 4% Charbon 30% Hydro 7% "Renouvel ables" 2% Pétrole 33% 5%/a Gaz 24% Pétrole Gaz Charbon Nucléaire Hydro "Renouvelables" 19/

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21 La nouvelle Europe 21/

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23 Gb 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, World proven oil reserves are still growing Oil réserves (BP data) Middle East Rest of the world 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% Oil réserves (BP data) Middle East 52% Rest of the world % 30% 48% 20% 10% 0% 23/

24 $/b 140 Crude oil price evolution Stable oscillations Price band mechanism Abandonment of price band Recovering from Asia crisis Overpassing the price band Subprime crisis 24/

25 World conventional gas reserves 187,3 +5%/y 71,6 25/

26 Tm³ GAS EN MOZAMBIQUE Entre Juin 2012 et Juin K T 0 Rovuma (M) Norway M 26/

27 Tm³ Israël Liban Norway 27/

28 Algeria Libya America Caspian Sea 28/

29 USA gas production 29/

30 Saudi America 30/

31 b/d.rig Mm³/d.rig 600 Oil rig productivity 400 Gas rig productivity Bakken Eagle Ford Haynesville Marcellus Niobrara permian Utica Bakken Eagle Ford Haynesville Marcellus Niobrara permian Utica 31/

32 The Bureau of Energy Resources Amos J Hochstein will ensure that all our diplomatic relationships advance our interests in having access to secure, reliable, and ever-cleaner sources of energy. To manage the geopolitics of today s energy economy through reinvigorated energy diplomacy with major producers and consumers. 32/

33 33/ John Boehner Orrin Hatch

34 Please, come back to Iran. We will change our buy-back contract's type Davos, 23/1/ /

35 4 000 Mtep Le charbon dans le monde Production Mtep Consommation Chine U.S.A. Inde UE Australie Russie Indonesie Afrique Sud Reste du monde Chine U.S.A. Inde UE Japon Russie Afrique Sud Coréé S Reste du monde Asia /Pacific : 70% of world consumption China : 50 % of world consumption 35/

36 Le charbon, important pour l'énergie et encore plus pour l'électricité Total Primary Energy Supply 19,1Gtce Gross Power Generation Twh 21% 10% 1% 2% 5% 30% 11% 16% 5% 41% 32% 22% 5% Coal Oil Natural Gas Nuclear Energy Hydro Traditional Biomas New Renewables 36/

37 TWh Production mondiale d'électricité par énergie primaire Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Autres ren 41% % 16% 12% 5% 4% Data : Energy Pocket Book (EC, 2014) 37/

38 Part du charbon dans la génération d'électricité (%) World DK U.S.A. UK Germany Czech Rep Bulgaria Grèce India Australia Israël Serbie China Poland S. Africa Coal Lignite /

39 Mt coal Chine: le charbon n'a pas d'autres alternatives 400 millions "Occidentals" million "Indians" Country is completely electrified Consommation de charbon en Chine Hydro 6% Gaz N 4% Nuc 1% Ren 1% Pétrole 18% Charbon 70% /

40 Mt CO2 Emissions de CO R of W 45% China 27% U.S.A. China EU 11% India U.S.A. 17% EU +55% depuis Rio Former Soviet Union Data : BP /

41 Merci pour votre attention 41/