Vermont Short Term Employment Projections

Transcription

1 Short Term Employment Projections Background Every year, the Department of Labor produces the state s short term employment projections. These projections use historical and current industry employment and occupational survey data to project how employment will change over a two-year period. The projection results reflect short term business cycle activity, such as periods of recession or rapid growth. Consequently, the short term employment projections are helpful for those looking for immediate employment, whether temporary, part-time or full-time. In contrast, s long term (ten-year) employment projections are designed to assist the educational community, workforce development specialists and individuals planning for the future. The long term occupational employment projections can be used to identify occupations that will show stability, growth and good incomes over the long run. The methods used to produce long term projections ignore the peaks and valleys of business cycles and focus on the fundamental elements that affect the demand for a particular occupation. Short Term Employment Projections Tables: Industry Projections For more information, including projections, go to Occupations or Industries at Methods The short term employment projections are based on historical data from 1990 through the first quarter of The primary data sources used were the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages and the Occupational Employment Statistics survey. The results of the occupational employment projections provide a general guide for the direction and relative strength of occupational demand but are not intended to indicate absolute levels of employment in an occupation. Annual openings reflect both job growth and estimated net replacement openings. If employment change is negative, job openings due to growth are zero and total job openings equal net replacements. Net replacement openings equal workers who permanently leave an occupation minus workers from the same occupation who move into a vacated position. Note that this is less than gross openings, which includes openings that come from workers changing jobs within the same occupation. Department of Labor, Economic & Labor Market Information March 2016

2 Short Term Occupational Projections: Occupation Total Annual Base Year Projected Annual Growth Employment Employment Openings Rate* 1 Cashiers 9,655 9, % 2 Retail Salespersons 9,079 9, % 3 Waiters and Waitresses 5,402 5, % 4 Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food 5,530 5, % 5 Registered Nurses 6,696 6, % 6 Personal Care Aides 8,025 8, % 7 Carpenters 6,411 6, % 8 Farmers, Ranchers, and Other Agricultural Managers 5,955 6, % 9 Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners 4,721 4, % 10 First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers 4,684 4, % 11 Stock Clerks and Order Fillers 3,162 3, % 12 Accountants and Auditors 3,341 3, % 13 Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners 5,119 5, % 14 Cooks, Restaurant 2,357 2, % 15 Teacher Assistants 5,352 5, % 16 Bartenders 2,128 2, % 17 Landscaping and Groundskeeping Workers 4,184 4, % 18 Customer Service Representatives 3,418 3, % 19 Automotive Service Technicians and Mechanics 2,679 2, % 20 Childcare Workers 3,113 3, % 21 Maintenance and Repair Workers, General 3,281 3, % 22 Nursing Assistants 3,584 3, % 23 Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand 2,286 2, % 24 Dishwashers 1,572 1, % 25 First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers 1,945 2, % 26 Counter Attendants, Cafeteria, Food Concession, and Coffee Shop % 27 Hotel, Motel, and Resort Desk Clerks 1,421 1, % 28 Construction Laborers 2,338 2, % 29 Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive 5,891 5, % 30 Food Preparation Workers 2,156 2, % 31 General and Operations Managers 2,904 2, % Department of Labor, Economic and Labor Market Information - March 2016 page 2

3 Short Term Occupational Projections: Occupation Total Annual Base Year Projected Annual Growth Employment Employment Openings Rate* 32 Managers, All Other 3,438 3, % 33 Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers 4,450 4, % 34 Hosts and Hostesses, Restaurant, Lounge, and Coffee Shop % 35 Social and Human Service Assistants 2,459 2, % 36 Secondary School Teachers, Except Special and Career/Technical Education 3,127 3, % 37 Dining Room and Cafeteria Attendants and Bartender Helpers 1,103 1, % 38 Receptionists and Information Clerks 2,413 2, % 39 Packaging and Filling Machine Operators and Tenders 1,476 1, % 40 Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products 2,306 2, % 41 Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education 3,099 3, % 42 Police and Sheriff's Patrol Officers 1,313 1, % 43 Insurance Sales Agents 1,420 1, % 44 Compliance Officers 2,283 2, % 45 Hairdressers, Hairstylists, and Cosmetologists 2,289 2, % 46 Highway Maintenance Workers 1,423 1, % 47 Coaches and Scouts 1,768 1, % 48 Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks 6,205 6, % 49 Farmworkers, Farm, Ranch, and Aquacultural Animals 1,146 1, % 50 First-Line Supervisors of Construction Trades and Extraction Workers 1,833 1, % Total, All Occupations 368, ,626 12, % NOTES AND METHODS: The 2016 short term occupational projections were based on historical data from 1990 through 2015, 1st quarter. Time series forecasting methods were used to predict employment movements through 1st quarter, The results provide a general guide for the direction and relative strength of occupational demand but are not intended to indicate an absolute level of job openings. Annual openings reflect both job growth and estimated net replacement openings. If employment change is negative, job openings due to growth are zero and total job openings equal net replacements. Net replacement openings are equal to: 1) workers who permanently leave an occupation, less 2) workers who move into a vacated position. * The average annual growth rate using a compounding formula. Last updated March, 2016 Department of Labor, Economic and Labor Market Information - March 2016 page 3

4 Short Term Occupational Projections: Occupation Annual Total Base Year Projected Growth Annual Employment Employment Rate* Openings 1 Separating, Filtering, Clarifying, Precipitating, and Still Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders 2 Helpers--Brickmasons, Blockmasons, Stonemasons, and Tile and Marble Setters % % 5 3 Helpers--Electricians % 15 4 Mechanical Door Repairers % 5 5 Septic Tank Servicers and Sewer Pipe Cleaners % 5 6 Operations Research Analysts % 3 7 Cement Masons and Concrete Finishers % 9 8 Helpers--Pipelayers, Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters % 5 9 Helpers--Carpenters % Physical Therapist Assistants % 8 11 Slaughterers and Meat Packers % 3 12 Physical Therapist Aides % 4 13 Computer Numerically Controlled Machine Tool Programmers, Metal and Plastic % 5 14 Roofers % Stonemasons % 8 16 Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters 1,023 1, % Structural Iron and Steel Workers % 4 18 Insulation Workers, Floor, Ceiling, and Wall % 8 19 Diagnostic Medical Sonographers % 5 20 Brickmasons and Blockmasons % 8 21 Cardiovascular Technologists and Technicians % 3 22 Actuaries % 4 23 Electricians 1,276 1, % Industrial Machinery Mechanics % Software Developers, Systems Software % Cartographers and Photogrammetrists % 2 27 Sheet Metal Workers % Security and Fire Alarm Systems Installers % 3 29 Cost Estimators % Computer Systems Analysts % 15 Department of Labor, Economic and Labor Market Information - March 2016 page 4

5 Short Term Occupational Projections: Occupation Annual Total Base Year Projected Growth Annual Employment Employment Rate* Openings 31 Occupational Therapy Assistants % 2 32 Food Cooking Machine Operators and Tenders % 1 33 Health Technologists and Technicians, All Other % 5 34 Nurse Practitioners % Physician Assistants % Cooks, Restaurant 2,357 2, % Physical Therapists % Nurse Midwives % 2 39 Painters, Transportation Equipment % 3 40 Farmworkers, Farm, Ranch, and Aquacultural Animals 1,146 1, % Veterinary Technologists and Technicians % First-Line Supervisors of Construction Trades and Extraction Workers 1,833 1, % Firefighters % Biological Technicians % 5 45 Extruding and Forming Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Synthetic and Glass Fibers % 3 46 Environmental Engineers % 7 47 Social Scientists and Related Workers, All Other % 1 48 Drywall and Ceiling Tile Installers % 7 49 Web Developers % Conservation Scientists % 6 Total, All Occupations 368, , % 12,006 NOTES AND METHODS: The 2016 short term occupational projections were based on historical data from 1990 through 2015, 1st quarter. Time series forecasting methods were used to predict employment movements through 1st quarter, The results provide a general guide for the direction and relative strength of occupational demand but are not intended to indicate an absolute level of job openings. Annual openings reflect both job growth and estimated net replacement openings. If employment change is negative, job openings due to growth are zero and total job openings equal net replacements. Net replacement openings are equal to: 1) workers who permanently leave an occupation, less 2) workers who move into a vacated position. * The average annual growth rate using a compounding formula. Last updated March, 2016 Department of Labor, Economic and Labor Market Information - March 2016 page 5

6 Industry Projections Short Term Industry Projections: NAICS Industry Annual 2015 Projected 2017 Growth Employment Employment Change Rate * Natural Resources and Mining 111 Crop Production % 112 Animal Production 1,708 1, % 113 Forestry and Logging % 114 Fishing, Hunting and Trapping n n n n 115 Support Activities for Agriculture and Forestry % 212 Mining (except Oil and Gas) % 213 Support Activities for Mining n n n n Utilities 221 Utilities 1,637 1, % Construction 236 Construction of Buildings 3,721 4, % 237 Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction 1,093 1, % 238 Specialty Trade Contractors 8,119 8, % Manufacturing 311 Food Manufacturing 5,508 5, % 312 Beverage and Tobacco Product Manufacturing % 313 Textile Mills % 314 Textile Product Mills % 315 Apparel Manufacturing % 316 Leather and Allied Product Manufacturing n n n n 321 Wood Product Manufacturing 1,669 1, % 322 Paper Manufacturing % 323 Printing and Related Support Activities 1, % 324 Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing % 325 Chemical Manufacturing 1,337 1, % 326 Plastics and Rubber Products Manufacturing 1,225 1, % 327 Nonmetallic Mineral Product Manufacturing 1,415 1, % 331 Primary Metal Manufacturing n n n n 332 Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing 2,198 2, % 333 Machinery Manufacturing 2,922 2, % 334 Computer and Electronic Product Manufacturing 5,201 4, % 335 Electrical Equipment, Appliance, and Component Mfg 1,192 1, % 336 Transportation Equipment Manufacturing 2,009 1, % 337 Furniture and Related Product Manufacturing 1,436 1, % 339 Miscellaneous Manufacturing 1,573 1, % Wholesale Trade 423 Merchant Wholesalers, Durable Goods 3,724 3, % 424 Merchant Wholesalers, Nondurable Goods 4,840 4, % 425 Wholesale Electronic Mkts, Agents and Brokers % Department of Labor, Economic and Labor Market Information - March 2015 page 6

7 Industry Projections Retail Trade Short Term Industry Projections: NAICS Industry Annual 2015 Projected 2017 Growth Employment Employment Change Rate * 441 Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers 4,991 5, % 442 Furniture and Home Furnishings Stores % 443 Electronics and Appliance Stores % 444 Building Material and Garden Supplies Dealers 3,260 3, % 445 Food and Beverage Stores 9,911 10, % 446 Health and Personal Care Stores 2,019 2, % 447 Gasoline Stations 3,661 3, % 448 Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores 2,336 2, % 451 Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, and Music Stores 2,002 2, % 452 General Merchandise Stores 3,242 3, % 453 Miscellaneous Store Retailers 1,979 1, % 454 Nonstore Retailers 2,237 2, % Transportation & Warehousing 481 Air Transportation % 482 Rail Transportation n n n n 483 Water Transportation n n n n 484 Truck Transportation 2,125 2, % 485 Transit and Ground Passenger Transport 1,397 1, % 487 Scenic and Sightseeing Transportation % 488 Support Activities for Transportation % 492 Couriers and Messengers 1,073 1, % 493 Warehousing and Storage 1,242 1, % Information 511 Publishing Industries 1,744 1, % 512 Motion Picture and Sound Recording Industries % 515 Broadcasting (except Internet) % 517 Telecommunications 1,244 1, % 518 Data Processing, Hosting and Related Services % 519 Other Information Services % Financial Activities 522 Credit Intermediation and Related Activities 4,299 4, % 523 Securities, Commodity Contracts, & Other Investments % 524 Insurance Carriers and Related Activities 3,996 4, % 531 Real Estate 2,107 2, % 532 Rental and Leasing Services % 533 Lessors of Nonfinancial Intangible Assets n n n n Department of Labor, Economic and Labor Market Information - March 2015 page 7

8 Industry Projections Short Term Industry Projections: NAICS Industry Professional and Business Services Annual 2015 Projected 2017 Growth Employment Employment Change Rate * 541 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 14,035 14, % 551 Management of Companies and Enterprises 2,217 2, % 561 Administrative and Support Services 8,674 8, % 562 Waste Management and Remediation Service % Educational and Health Services 611 Educational Services (includes public education) 39,403 38, % 621 Ambulatory Health Care Services 16,545 17, % 622 Hospitals (includes state hospital) 13,467 13, % 623 Nursing and Residential Care Facilities 7,325 7, % 624 Social Assistance 12,365 12, % Leisure and Hospitality 711 Perf. Arts, Spectator Sports, and Rel. Industries % 712 Museums, Historical Sites, and Similar Institution % 713 Amusement, Gambling, and Recreation Industries 2,853 2, % 721 Accommodation 15,052 15, % 722 Food Services and Drinking Places 19,412 20, % Other Services 811 Repair and Maintenance 2,702 2, % 812 Personal and Laundry Services 2,033 2, % 813 Religious, Grantmaking, Civic, Prof, and Similar Org's 5,395 5, % 814 Private Households % Government Total Federal Government Employment 6,754 6, % Federal Government, Excluding Post Office 5,158 5, % Postal Service 1,596 1, % State Government, Excluding Education and Hospitals 9,726 9, % Local Government, Excluding Education and Hospitals 9,182 9, % Total Wage and Salary Employment** 308, ,726 5, % Total Self-Employed and Unpaid Family Workers 60,100 60, % Total Employment, All Jobs** 368, ,626 6, % NOTES AND METHODS n Data do not meet disclosure standards * Growth rates are compound average annual rates ** Total Employment includes suppressed values and does not equal the sum of the disclosed industry line items NAICS refers to the North American Industry Classification System. Employment shown in 2015 and 2017 is for first quarter, Jan--Mar. Last updated March, 2016 Department of Labor, Economic and Labor Market Information - March 2015 page 8