Emerging Jobs and Changing Demands of the Workforce

Transcription

1 Emerging Jobs and Changing Demands of the Workforce Amar Mann Branch Chief and Supervisory Economist Economic Analysis and Information Divison Presented at CSU-East Bay November 19, 2014

2 Bureau of Labor Statistics What does BLS do? Principal Federal agency responsible for measuring labor market activity, working conditions, and price changes in the economy Principal federal economic indicators for inflation, employment/unemployment, and employment costs Also, produce measures of occupational safety and occupational projections Data used by policymakers, funding, benefits, wage setting, and contracts 2

3 140, , , , , , , , , , ,000 Employment in total nonfarm January 2000 April 2012 Seasonally adjusted, in thousands April 2012 Level: 132,989 Change: 115 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey, May 04, Note: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Most recent 2 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 months of data are preliminary. Embargoed pre-release until :30 AM (EST) 3 142, , ,000 Employment in total nonfarm January 2003 October 2014 Seasonally adjusted, in thousands October 2014 Level: 139,680 OTM Change: 214* Jan 2008 peak: 138,365 Feb 2010 trough: 129, , , , , , ,000 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey, November 07, Shaded area represents recession as denoted by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Most recent 2 months of data are preliminary. * denotes significance.

4 140, , , , , , , , , , ,000 Employment in total nonfarm January 2000 April 2012 Seasonally adjusted, in thousands April 2012 Level: 132,989 Change: 115 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey, May 04, Note: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Most recent 2 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 months of data are preliminary Embargoed pre-release until :30 AM (EST) Employment in total nonfarm Over-the-month change, January October 2014 Seasonally adjusted, in thousands Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics, November 07, 2014 Most recent 2 months of data are preliminary.

5 Embargoed pre-release until :30 AM (EST) 1 Civilian unemployment rate Seasonally adjusted, Percent October 2014 Level: Note: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Data online at Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, November 7, 2014.

6 Embargoed pre-release until :30 AM (EST) 3 Civilian labor force participation rate Seasonally adjusted, Percent October 2014 Level: Note: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Data online at Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, November 7, 2014.

7 Embargoed pre-release until :30 AM (EST) 12 Employed part time for economic reasons Seasonally adjusted, Numbers in thousands 10,000 10,000 9,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 October 2014 Level: 7,027 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 5,000 4,000 4,000 3,000 3,000 2,000 2,000 1,000 1, Note: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Data online at Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, November 7, 2014.

8 Embargoed pre-release until :30 AM (EST) 13 Persons not in the labor force, selected indicators Not seasonally adjusted, Numbers in thousands 3,000 3,000 2,500 2,500 2,000 Marginally attached 2,000 1,500 1,500 1,000 1, Discouraged Note: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Data online at Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, November 7, 2014.

9 Embargoed pre-release until :30 AM (EST) 14 Alternative measures of labor underutilization Seasonally adjusted, Percent U U-5 U U-2 U-3 Unemployment rate U Note: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Data online at and at Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, November 7, 2014.

10 Embargoed pre-release until :30 AM (EST) Percent Long-term unemployed as a percent of total unemployed Seasonally adjusted, October 2014 Level: Percent unemployed 27 weeks and over Note: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Data online at Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, November 7, 2014.

11 Embargoed pre-release until :30 AM (EST) 5 Duration of unemployment Seasonally adjusted, Numbers in thousands 7,000 7,000 6,000 6,000 5,000 4, weeks and over 5,000 4,000 3,000 Less than 5 weeks 3,000 2,000 5 to 14 weeks 2,000 1, to 26 weeks 1, Note: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Data online at Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, November 7, 2014.

12 Embargoed pre-release until :30 AM (EST) Percent Unemployment rates by race and Hispanic or Latino ethnicity Seasonally adjusted, Blacks or African Americans Hispanics or Latinos Whites Asians (Not seasonally adjusted) Note: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Persons of Hispanic or Latino ethnicity may be of any race. Data online at Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, November 7, 2014.

13 Embargoed pre-release until :30 AM (EST) Percent Unemployment rates for persons 25 years and older by educational attainment Seasonally adjusted, Less than a high school diploma High school graduates, no college Some college or associate degree Bachelor's degree and higher Note: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Data online at Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, November 7, 2014.

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15 Education equals lower unemployment and more $ 15

16 Unemployment Rates for Recent College Graduates and Other Groups 16

17 College Graduates Unemployment Rate, by Age 17

18 Underemployment Rates for College Graduates 18

19 Share of Underemployed Graduates in Good Non-College and Low-Wage Jobs 19

20 Share of Underemployed Graduates Working Part-Time 20

21 Employment Outcomes for Recent College Graduates by Major,

22 The Work-More Economy Employees doing two jobs for the price of one Employers expect employees to work longer hours than ever before Stress is number one reason high performers quit Towers & Watson 2013/14 Report Shows Employer-Employee Disconnect (see next slide) 22

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24 Diverging trends for Productivity and Real Wages 24

25 Diverging trends for Productivity and Real Wages 25

26 Corporate Profits Have Recovered 26

27 More job openings than hires 27

28 Employers have more applicants and recruiting intensity is down 28

29 LinkedIn Study Source: 29

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40 New 2010 SOC Job Titles Information Security Analysts Web Developers Computer Network Architects Magnetic Resonance Imaging Technologists Ophthalmic Medical Technicians Genetic Counselors Exercise Physiologists Hearing Aid Specialists Solar Photovoltaic Installers Wind Turbine Service Technicians 40

41 Employment Projections Background 10-year projections made every 2 years projections cover over 800 occupations and 300 industries BLS projections prepared at the national level only 41

42 Employment Projections Process Population Labor force participation rate trends Labor Force Total and by age, sex, race and ethnicity Aggregate Economy GDP, total employment, and major demand categories Demographics Fiscal policy Foreign economies Energy prices Monetary policy Occupational Employment Job openings due to growth & replacement needs Staffing patterns Staffing pattern ratio analyses Staff expertise Replacement rates Economic censuses Annual economic surveys Other data sources Industry Final Demand Sales to consumers, businesses, government, and foreigners Industry output Sector wage rates Technological change Industry Employment Labor productivity, average weekly hours, wage & salary employment Industry Output Use and Make Relationships, Total Requirements Tables Input-Output Tables 42

43 Unemployment Rate 12% 10% 8% 6% 5.4% 4% 2% 0% Assumption

44 CA and U.S. Total Nonfarm Employment Between Source: California Employment Development Department, Labor Market Information 44

45 Employment Outlook: Industry Employment 45

46 Source: California Employment Development Department, Labor Market Information CA Projected Job Growth by Industry Sector,

47 CA Projected Employment Percent Change by Major Industry Sectors, CA = 14.9% US = 10.8% Source: California Employment Development Department, Labor Market Information 47

48 Employment Outlook: Occupational Employment 48

49 Largest Occupations in California Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Statistics, May

50 Highest Concentrated Occupations in California Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Statistics, May

51 Fastest Growing Occupations, California Occupation Title 2012 Employment 2022 Employment Percent Change Median Annual Wages Helpers--Brickmasons, Blockmasons, Stonemasons, and Tile and Marble Setters Economists 3,100 5, % $95,263 2,900 4, % $31,491 Brickmasons and Blockmasons 5,100 8, % $64,916 Insulation Workers, Floor, Ceiling, and Wall 1,600 2, % $32,301 Stonemasons 1,100 1, % $45,598 Insulation Workers, Mechanical 1,100 1, % $44,738 Personal Care Aides 386, , % $21,473 Foresters 1,200 1, % $72,702 Terrazzo Workers and Finishers 1,100 1, % $42,623 Mechanical Door Repairers 1,100 1, % $43, Source: California Employment Development Department, Labor Market Information

52 Largest Growing Occupations, California Occupation Title 2012 Employment 2022 Employment Total Openings due to Growth Median Annual Wages Personal Care Aides 386, , ,300 $21,473 Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food 286, ,400 76,400 $19,166 Retail Salespersons 468, ,100 59,700 $22,405 Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand 270, ,300 51,800 $24,339 Waiters and Waitresses 246, ,300 44,200 $19,065 Registered Nurses 254, ,400 42,900 $95,415 General and Operations Managers 253, ,700 41,900 $105,248 Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive 212, ,100 37,300 $37,415 Cashiers 357, ,600 34,800 $20,762 Cooks, Restaurant 116, ,600 33,700 $23, Source: California Employment Development Department, Labor Market Information

53 Average Annual Job Openings, California Occupation Title New Jobs due to Growth Replacement Needs Total Openings due to Growth + Replacement Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food Personal Care Aides 20,030 2,770 22,800 Retail Salespersons 5,980 16,020 22,000 Cashiers 3,480 15,470 18,950 7,650 10,920 18,570 Waiters and Waitresses 4,420 11,840 16,260 Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand Farmworkers and Laborers, Crop, Nursery, and Greenhouse 5,180 8,380 13,560 3,110 7,830 10,940 Office Clerks, General 3,030 6,930 9,950 Registered Nurses 4,300 4,930 9,230 General and Operations Managers 4,200 4,750 8,940 Source: California Employment Development Department, Labor Market Information 53

54 Fastest Declining Occupations, California Occupation Title 2012 Employment 2022 Employment Percent Change Median Annual Wages Postal Service Clerks 7,400 5, % $54,517 Postal Service Mail Sorters, Processors, and Processing Machine Operators Textile Knitting and Weaving Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders 13,600 9, % $54,507 1,700 1, % $19,861 Postal Service Mail Carriers 32,300 23, % $57,210 Word Processors and Typists 26,800 20, % $40,209 Semiconductor Processors 5,800 4, % $34,021 Travel Agents 9,300 7, % $38,127 Data Entry Keyers 23,700 18, % $31,683 Prepress Technicians and Workers Source: California Employment Development Department, Labor Market Information 4,400 3, % $43,616 54

55 Education and Training Classification Consists of three categories of information for each occupation: Typical education needed for entry Work experience in a related occupation Typical on-the-job training needed to attain competency in the occupation 55

56 CA Largest Growing Occupations Requiring Less than H.S. Diploma Personal Care Aides 200,300 Combined Food Preparation and Serving Retail Salespersons Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Waiters and Waitresses Cashiers Cooks, Restaurant Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Construction Laborers Farmworkers and Laborers, Crop, 76,400 59,700 51,800 44,200 34,800 33,700 33,200 31,800 31, , , , , ,000 Source: California Employment Development Department, Labor Market Information, Projections 56

57 CA Largest Growing Occupations Requiring H.S. Diploma or Equivalent Secretaries and Administrative Customer Service Representatives Office Clerks, General Carpenters Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing First-Line Supervisors of Office and Sales Representatives, Services, All Other Security Guards First-Line Supervisors of Food Sales Representatives, Wholesale and 37,300 32,000 30,300 28,000 26,400 25,000 23,600 22,200 21,000 20, ,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 Source: California Employment Development Department, Labor Market Information, Projections 57

58 CA Largest Growing Occupations Requiring Associate s Degree Registered Nurses 42,900 Web Developers Paralegals and Legal Assistants Dental Hygienists Medical and Clinical Laboratory Radiologic Technologists Respiratory Therapists Preschool Teachers, Except Special Diagnostic Medical Sonographers Computer Network Support Specialists 6,800 5,300 5,100 4,500 2,600 2,500 2,500 2,000 1, ,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 Source: California Employment Development Department, Labor Market Information, Projections 58

59 CA Largest Growing Occupations Requiring Bachelor s Degree General and Operations Managers 41,900 Management Analysts Market Research Analysts and Marketing Software Developers, Applications Accountants and Auditors Software Developers, Systems Software Elementary School Teachers, Except Computer Systems Analysts 30,100 28,500 28,000 25,600 19,000 18,700 17,500 Computer and Information Systems Financial Managers 10,400 10, ,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 Source: California Employment Development Department, Labor Market Information, Projections 59

60 CA Largest Growing Occupations Requiring Master s Degree Educational, Guidance, School, and 4,000 Healthcare Social Workers Physician Assistants Instructional Coordinators Nurse Practitioners Rehabilitation Counselors Education Administrators, Postsecondary Occupational Therapists Economists Art, Drama, and Music Teachers, 3,200 2,800 2,700 2,600 2,500 2,500 2,100 2,000 2, ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 Source: California Employment Development Department, Labor Market Information, Projections 60

61 CA Largest Growing Occupations Requiring Doctoral or Professional Degree Lawyers 9,900 Postsecondary Teachers, All Other 6,600 Medical Scientists, Except Epidemiologists Physical Therapists Health Specialties Teachers, Postsecondary Pharmacists Physicians and Surgeons, All Other Clinical, Counseling, and School Family and General Practitioners Biochemists and Biophysicists 5,000 4,700 4,400 4,100 3,600 2,400 2,100 1, ,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 Source: California Employment Development Department, Labor Market Information, Projections 61

62 Job Vulnerability due to Computerization 62

63 Employment Outlook: Resources for Additional Information 63

64 Employment Projections Products Occupational Outlook Handbook Occupational Outlook Quarterly Long-term employment projections by industry and occupation Technical materials replacement rates, education and training categories, and more 64

65 Occupational Outlook Handbook 65

66 Occupational Outlook Quarterly 66

67 Employment Projections Program 67

68 Projections articles in Monthly Labor Review Overview of projections to 2022 The U.S. economy to 2022: settling into a new normal Labor force projections to 2022: the labor force participation rate continues to fall Industry employment and output projections to 2022 Occupational projections to 2022 Links to articles at 68

69 Useful Employment Projections Sites Technical documentation of Employment Projections program methods and data Other Employment Projections program publications, including past Monthly Labor Review articles Frequently asked questions 69

70 State and Local Area Projections BLS prepares projections only for the nation as a whole Projections of industry and occupational employment are prepared by each state, using input from the BLS national projections State projections data, and links to each state s projections site, are available 70

71 Projections Evaluation Last performed for projections Comparisons were difficult due to classification changes BLS projections outperformed naïve models Direction of employment change was generally correct 71

72 Contact Information Amar Mann Branch Chief and Supervisory Economist Economic Analysis and Information