ONTARIO ENERGY REPORT Q4 2014
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1 ONTARIO ENERGY REPORT Q4 OCT DEC OIL AND NATURAL GAS Regular Gasoline and Diesel Provincial Retail Prices ($/L) Natural Gas Effective Prices ( /m 3 ) Regular Gasoline $1.12 Diesel $1.25 Source: Ministry of Energy Fuel Prices. Union Gas Enbridge Source: OEB Natural Gas Rates effective Oct 1. Natural Gas Spot Price () Dawn (ON) $4.04 Henry Hub (US) $3.77 AECO (AB) $3.18 Source: Dawn and AECO prices from Canadian Enerdata Ltd.; Henry Hub prices from U.S. Energy Information Administration. Eastern Canada Natural Gas Storage Balance (at quarter end) Bcf of Gas in Storage (for Week Ending December 26, ) Source: Canadian Enerdata Ltd.'s monthly Canadian Gas Price Reporter. For Eastern Canada natural gas is primarily at Dawn, ON. Natural Gas Transmission Infrastructure Legend Gas Transmission TransCanada Mainline Union Gas TransCanada s Delivery Areas Western Delivery Area Northern Delivery Area North Central Delivery Area Eastern Delivery Area Central Delivery Area Southwestern Delivery Area Storage Area Interconnection Point 1
2 Energy Report Q4 Oil and Natural Gas October December Regular Gasoline Retail Prices Q4 Regular Gasoline Retail Price Year (Q4) $/L Southern Northern Ottawa Sudbury Thunder Bay West East Source: Ministry of Energy Fuel Prices. All prices in Current Dollars per litre. Provincial, Southern and Northern averages are weighted by population. 1 regular unleaded gasoline retail prices in Q4 were 13.6 cents per litre ( /L) lower than in Q This was the result of lower refining margins (-8.6 /L), lower crude oil costs (-3.9 /L), and lower taxes (-1.6 /L), which more than offset higher retail margins (+0.5 /L). Crude oil costs would have fallen more had it not been for a 7.6% decline in the value of the Canadian dollar relative to the U.S. dollar from Q to Q4. Canadian crude oil and wholesale gasoline costs are affected by the CDN/US exchange rate because these commodities are traded on a North American and international basis. Note: Retail gasoline prices are affected by crude oil prices, wholesale gasoline prices, and competition in the local retail gasoline market. Prices vary from city to city because of differences in market size and structure, costs, and the degree of local competition. Regular Gasoline Price $/Litre Q Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 1. was selected for the pump price analysis because it is the largest gasoline market in. 2
3 Energy Report Q4 Oil and Natural Gas October December Retail Diesel Prices Q4 Diesel Retail Price Year (Q4) $/L Southern Northern Ottawa Sudbury Thunder Bay West East N/A N/A N/A Source: Ministry of Energy Fuel Prices. All prices in Current Dollars per litre. Provincial, Southern and Northern averages are weighted by population. 1 retail diesel prices in Q4 were 7.8 /L lower than in Q This was the result of lower refining margins (-10.2 /L), lower crude oil costs (-3.9 /L), and lower taxes (-0.8 /L), which more than offset higher refining margins (+7.7 /L). Crude oil costs would have fallen more had it not been for a 7.6% decline in the value of the Canadian dollar relative to the U.S. dollar from Q to Q4. Canadian crude oil and wholesale diesel costs are affected by the CDN/US exchange rate because these commodities are traded on a North American and international basis. Note: Retail diesel prices are affected by crude oil prices, wholesale diesel prices, and competition in the local retail diesel market. Prices vary from city to city because of differences in market size and structure, costs, and the degree of local competition. Retail Diesel Price $/Litre Q Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 1. was selected for the pump price analysis because it is the largest diesel market in. 3
4 Energy Report Q4 Oil and Natural Gas October December Natural Gas Effective Price for Enbridge and Union 1 Q4 /m Union Gas Enbridge Source: OEB Natural Gas Rates effective Oct. 1. Each quarter, gas distributors adjust the gas supply charge based on a forecast of market prices over the next 12 months. Additionally, the gas supply cost adjustment is updated. This is a true-up mechanism to account for differences between the forecast and actual costs from the previous quarter. The effective gas supply price is a combination of the forecast natural gas price and the gas supply cost adjustment. The rate adjustment that took place for the fourth quarter, effective October 1, reflected events that took place over that affected natural gas prices. Union s effective price decreased from the previous quarter as a result of lower projected costs for natural gas. The decrease in Enbridge s price was also due to lower projected costs for natural gas. Natural Gas Effective Prices /m OCT 2013 Union JAN APR JUL OCT Enbridge 1. Enbridge and Union are highlighted because they serve the most customers in. For more information on QRAM prices please see 2. Reflects Union Gas Southern Rate Zone 4
5 Energy Report Q4 Oil and Natural Gas October December Natural Gas Spot Prices Natural Gas Spot Prices Quarterly Comparison Trading Hub Q4 Q3 (Previous Quarter) Q (Previous Year) Dawn (ON) Henry Hub (US) AECO (AB) Source: Dawn and AECO prices from Canadian Enerdata Ltd.; Henry Hub prices from U.S. Energy Information Administration. Natural gas prices dropped further in Q4 compared to Q3 with moderate weather in much of North America in the fall and early winter. At the same time, US shale gas production continued at a record pace. Natural Gas Spot Prices Quarterly Comparison Q4 Dawn Henry AECO Q3 Q Source: Dawn and AECO prices from Canadian Enerdata Ltd.; Henry Hub prices from U.S. Energy Information Administration. 5
6 Energy Report Q4 Oil and Natural Gas October December Annual Natural Gas Spot Prices Trading Hub Year to Date End of Q Annual Dawn (ON) Henry Hub (US) AECO (AB) Source: Dawn and AECO prices from Canadian Enerdata Ltd.; Henry Hub prices from U.S. Energy Information Administration. natural gas prices were higher than in 2013 due to Q1 natural gas prices that peaked during the prolonged, colder than average winter of. Natural Gas Spot Prices at Dawn, ON DEC 2013 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Source: Canadian Enerdata Ltd.'s monthly Canadian Price Reporter. 6
7 Energy Report Q4 Oil and Natural Gas October December Commodity Price Forecasts Trading Hub Date 2015 Forecast 2016 Forecast Dawn (ON) Feb 2/15 US$3.15/MMBtu US$3.41/MMBtu Henry Hub (US) Feb 2/15 US$3.00/MMBtu US$3.27/MMBtu AECO (AB) Feb 2/15 C$2.79/GJ C$3.09/GJ Source: Forecasts from Canadian Enerdata Ltd. s January 2015 Canadian Gas Price Reporter. Eastern Canada Natural Gas Storage Balances (as of quarter end) For Week Ending Bcf of Gas in Storage % in Storage vs. Same Week Prior Year % Full vs. Storage Capacity Q4-Dec % 82% Q3-Sep % 87% Q N/A 58% Source: Storage data from Canadian Enerdata Ltd. s monthly Canadian Gas Price Reporter. For Eastern Canada, natural gas is stored primarily at Dawn, ON with a small amount of storage in New Brunswick. Natural gas in storage in Eastern Canada primarily at the Dawn, hub near Sarnia dropped a bit in Q4 compared to Q3 as the natural gas heating season began. However, gas production/supply remained strong through the fall and into December, with temperatures generally above seasonal averages. As a result, there was significantly more gas in Eastern Canadian storage heading into this winter than last. There was more record gas production during Q4 in the Northeast U.S. Marcellus Shale formation (Pennsylvania and West Virginia). is importing increasing amounts of U.S. shale gas from Marcellus and from the Utica Formation (Ohio). Still, the majority of the province s natural gas continues to be supplied from the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin. 7
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