Long-Term Ag. Outlook Webinar October 30, 2015

Save this PDF as:
 WORD  PNG  TXT  JPG

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Long-Term Ag. Outlook Webinar October 30, 2015"

Transcription

1 Long-Term Ag. Outlook Webinar October 30, 2015

2 your ques-ons to Long-Term Ag. Outlook Webinar October 30, 2015

3 The State of the Agricultural Economy Short-run: The Farm Boom is Over Low Interest Rates Low Infla:on Long-run: 9+ Billion People Higher Infla:on Higher Interest Rates The Transi:on is Key: How does agriculture respond if infla:on moves faster than interest rates?

4 Infla-on and GDP Growth will Shape Agriculture PotenCal GDP PopulaCon How many people? Labor Force ParCcipaCon How many work? ProducCvity How well do they work? US GDP and PotenCal GDP Trillions of dollars GDPa PotenCal GDP-CBO 10.0 Source: CBO Source: Congressional Budget Office

5 Does Agriculture Face Interest Rate Risk? The Federal Reserve indicates that rates could rise in 2015 In the long run, normalizacon would add 3 to 4 percentage points to interest rates? How would a 3 to 4 percent point increase in rates affect the financial health of your business? Fed Funds Rate Source: Federal Reserve Bank, Board of Governors

6 Transforma-on of Developing Na-ons Over the next decade, global economic growth is expected to strengthen USDA expects populacon to rise in growing economies What is more important? PopulaCon or Income World Real GDP Growth (Annual percent change) What does the U.S. need to do to boost exports? Source: World Bank 0 World Africa South Asia China LaCn North Europe America America Source: USDA

7 The Exchange Rate Environment will Change China: a Consumer or a Producer Driven Economy? Consumers Producers Strong Currency Weak Currency What about other developing nacons?

8

9 Low Prices and High Costs -World produccon greater than use -Growing inventories -Costs lag from high returns Dollar Cuts U.S. Ag Trade Weaker world demand due to: -Weak developing economy income growth -Strong U.S. dollar -Excess supplies of oil and general commodity weakness

10 How Strong are Farm Finances? Farm Debt Outstanding at Commercial Banks Percent change from previous year Non-real-estate Real Estate Source: Federal Reserve Bank, Kansas City, Ag Finance Data Book Source: FDIC, Call Report data

11 Dollars Per Acre $1,300 $1,100 $900 $700 $500 $300 $100 -$ = $678 Real U.S. Corn Revenue (+Insurance) Per Harvested Acre: 2015 = 100 Note: Government payments were very large at times in the 1982 to 2005 period, but not included here 1946 = $ = $ =$ = $1, = $ = $ = $ = $1, = $ = $372

12 Million 2,400 2,300 2,200 2,100 2,000 1,900 1,800 1,700 1,600 World Harvested ACRES 13 Major Crops Total: (Millions) 1972/73= 1, /82= 2, /07= 2, /03= 2, /16 = 2,323 05/06 = 2, Million acres added in 10 years 8% U.S. Gov't: Released 11 million acres from CRP (37 down to 26 million)

13 Cash Rent for West Central Indiana $350 $300 $ $200 $150 $100 $50 $ Source: Purdue Land Values Survey

14 $10,000 $9,000 $8,000 West Central Indiana Cash Rent and Farmland Price, 1960 to 2015 $300 $250 $7,000 $6,000 Farmland (lee axis) Cash Rent (right axis) $200 $5,000 $150 $4,000 $3,000 $100 $2,000 $1,000 $50 $ Source: Purdue Land Values Survey $0

15 35 Farmland Price to Cash Rent Mul-ple West Central Indiana, 1960 to Actual Price to Rent Average Price to Rent

16 Rota-on Corn, Dollars per Acre Market Revenue Variable Cost ContribuCon Margin $1,100 $1,000 $900 $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 1,

17 Land values are based on expectacons. Cash rent or net return to land (dollars per acre) $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 Capitalized Value Formula Cash rent or Net returns to land Expected Capitalization Rate Capitalization Rate (percent) 3% 6,667 10,000 13,333 16,667 20,000 23,333 4% 5,000 7,500 10,000 12,500 15,000 17,500 5% 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 6% 3,333 5,000 6,667 8,333 10,000 11,667 7% 2,857 4,286 5,714 7,143 8,571 10,000 8% 2,500 3,750 5,000 6,250 7,500 8,750

18 Projected ARC-CO Payments per Acre for Corn in Selected Indiana Coun-es Elkhart Jay Knox White $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $

19 Earning per Acre in 2016 with Safety Net in Place 30% Lower Yield 20% Lower Yield 10% Lower Yield Base Yield 10% Higher Yield $50 $0 -$50 -$100 -$150 -$200 -$250 20% Lower Price 10% Lower Price Base Price 10% Higher Price 20% Higher Price

20 USDA Prices Paid Indices - All Produc-on Items 1973 to 2014 Declined in 1985, 1986, 1998, 1999, and g = 3.33%

21 Pounds Per Capita Per Capita Total Meats and Poultry Retail Weight: USDA Year

22 USDA Finished Steers Calves Hogs Milk Eggs Broilers Turkey

23 Join Us for our next Webinar on November 30, 2015 Capturing the Upside and Buffering the Downside on Your Farm Long-Term Ag. Outlook Webinar October 30, 2015

Outlook for the 2013 U.S. Farm Economy

Outlook for the 2013 U.S. Farm Economy Outlook for the 213 U.S. Farm Economy Kevin Patrick Farm and Rural Business Branch Resource and Rural Economics Division Highlights Net farm income in 213 forecast: $128.2 billion Net cash income in 213

More information

Impact of Crop Insurance and Indemnity Payments on Cash Rent and Land Values. Michael Langemeier Center for Commercial Agriculture Purdue University

Impact of Crop Insurance and Indemnity Payments on Cash Rent and Land Values. Michael Langemeier Center for Commercial Agriculture Purdue University Impact of Crop Insurance and Indemnity Payments on Cash Rent and Land Values Michael Langemeier Center for Commercial Agriculture Purdue University Background The magnitude of the impact of crop insurance

More information

298,320 3,041 107,825. Missouri Economic Research Brief FARM AND AGRIBUSINESS. Employment. Number of Agribusinesses.

298,320 3,041 107,825. Missouri Economic Research Brief FARM AND AGRIBUSINESS. Employment. Number of Agribusinesses. Missouri Economic Research Brief FARM AND AGRIBUSINESS Missouri s Farm and Agribusiness Missouri s farm and agribusiness sectors include crops, livestock, industries supporting farm production and farm-related

More information

3.3 Real Returns Above Variable Costs

3.3 Real Returns Above Variable Costs 3.3 Real Returns Above Variable Costs Several factors can impact the returns above variable costs for crop producers. Over a long period of time, sustained increases in the growth rate for purchased inputs

More information

Missouri Soybean Economic Impact Report

Missouri Soybean Economic Impact Report Missouri Soybean Economic Report State Analysis March 2014 The following soybean economic impact values were estimated by Value Ag, LLC, as part of a Missouri Soybean Merchandising Council funded project.

More information

Audience Response Cards 2/13/2013. Operating with Today s Land Values. Outline for today: Know how. Know now. Know how. Know now. Know how. Know now.

Audience Response Cards 2/13/2013. Operating with Today s Land Values. Outline for today: Know how. Know now. Know how. Know now. Know how. Know now. Operating with Today s Land Values Prepared by: T. Lemmons & A. Vyhnalek Adapted from: B. Johnson. (2012). Nebraska Farm Real Estate Market Report. UNL Extension Presented by: Allan Vyhnalek 402 563 4901

More information

The Farmland Asset Class

The Farmland Asset Class The Farmland Asset Class December 2010 Jeffrey A. Conrad, CFA President, Hancock Agricultural Investment Group jconrad@hnrg.com (617) 747-1601 Presentation Overview I. Introduction to the Hancock Agricultural

More information

New England Cash Receipts 2012

New England Cash Receipts 2012 New England Cash Receipts 2012 December 15, 2013 2012 Farm Cash Receipts down 2 percent in New England New England cash receipts from farm marketings totaled $2.702 billion in 2012, a decrease of $67 million

More information

Measuring Beef Demand

Measuring Beef Demand Measuring Beef Demand James Mintert, Ph.D. Professor & Extension State Leader Department of Agricultural Economics Kansas State University www.agmanager.info/livestock/marketing jmintert@ksu.edu A Picture

More information

Tennessee Agricultural Production and Rural Infrastructure

Tennessee Agricultural Production and Rural Infrastructure Tennessee Trends in Agricultural Production and Infrastructure Highlights - In many states the percentage of the state population designated by the U.S. Census Bureau as living in rural areas has declined,

More information

2015 Risk and Profit Conference Breakout Session Presenters. 12. Managing Risk in Today s Environment

2015 Risk and Profit Conference Breakout Session Presenters. 12. Managing Risk in Today s Environment 2015 Risk and Profit Conference Breakout Session Presenters Elizabeth Yeager 12. Managing Risk in Today s Environment Elizabeth Yeager joined the Dept. of Agricultural Economics at Kansas

More information

U.S. Agriculture and International Trade

U.S. Agriculture and International Trade Curriculum Guide I. Goals and Objectives A. Understand the importance of exports and imports to agriculture and how risk management is affected. B. Understand factors causing exports to change. C. Understand

More information

ECONOMIC CONTRIBUTION OF NORTH CAROLINA AGRICULTURE AND AGRIBUSINESS

ECONOMIC CONTRIBUTION OF NORTH CAROLINA AGRICULTURE AND AGRIBUSINESS ECONOMIC CONTRIBUTION OF NORTH CAROLINA AGRICULTURE AND AGRIBUSINESS $76 BILLION Agriculture and Agribusiness, including the farming, processing, wholesaling and retailing of food, natural fiber and forestry

More information

Third Quarter 2014 Earnings Conference Call. 13 August 2014

Third Quarter 2014 Earnings Conference Call. 13 August 2014 Third Quarter 2014 Earnings Conference Call 13 August 2014 Safe Harbor Statement & Disclosures The earnings call and accompanying material include forward-looking comments and information concerning the

More information

SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS ON KFMA FARMS

SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS ON KFMA FARMS KANSAS FARM MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATION Your Farm - Your Information - Your Decision N E W S L E T T E R Volume 6, Issue 3 March 2012 SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS ON KFMA FARMS A flow of funds report, often referred

More information

Soybean Supply and Demand Forecast

Soybean Supply and Demand Forecast Soybean Supply and Demand Forecast U.S. soybean planted acreage is expected to increase 11.5 million acres over the forecast period. U.S. soybean yields are expected to increase 7 bushels per acre or an

More information

Main Street ECONOMIST: ECONOMIST THE THE. Economic information. Financing Young and Beginning Farmers. By Nathan Kauffman, Economist

Main Street ECONOMIST: ECONOMIST THE THE. Economic information. Financing Young and Beginning Farmers. By Nathan Kauffman, Economist THE Main Street ECONOMIST: ECONOMIST Economic information Agricultural for the and Cornhusker Rural Analysis State September 201 0 Federal Reserve Bank of of Kansas City Financing Young and Beginning Farmers

More information

Canadian Agricultural Outlook

Canadian Agricultural Outlook 2015 Canadian Agricultural Outlook Information contained in this report is current as of February 11, 2015. Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, represented by the Minister of Agriculture and Agri-Food,

More information

Farm Credit s Mission to serve Young, Beginning, and Small Farmers. New loans made in 2010 to: Young: $7.3 billion Beginning: $10.

Farm Credit s Mission to serve Young, Beginning, and Small Farmers. New loans made in 2010 to: Young: $7.3 billion Beginning: $10. Farming s Future: The Next Generation Gary Matteson, Farm Credit Council VP Young, Beginning, Small Farmer Programs and Outreach Looking to the Future must know where beginning farmers are what beginning

More information

CROP BUDGETS, ILLINOIS, 2015

CROP BUDGETS, ILLINOIS, 2015 CROP BUDGETS Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics University of Illinois CROP BUDGETS, ILLINOIS, 2015 Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics University of Illinois September 2015

More information

Agricultural Commodity Marketing: Futures, Options, Insurance

Agricultural Commodity Marketing: Futures, Options, Insurance Agricultural Commodity Marketing: Futures, Options, Insurance By: Dillon M. Feuz Utah State University Funding and Support Provided by: On-Line Workshop Outline A series of 12 lectures with slides Accompanying

More information

2015-2020 AG FINANCIAL PLANNING PREPARED BY PAUL C HAY, EXTENSION EDUCATOR

2015-2020 AG FINANCIAL PLANNING PREPARED BY PAUL C HAY, EXTENSION EDUCATOR The points on these slides are my thoughts and explanations of ideas gleaned from presentations by Michael Boehlje, Purdue University Ag Economist: Tina Barrett, Nebraska Farm Business Association: Kansas

More information

USDA Agricultural Projections to 2025

USDA Agricultural Projections to 2025 United States Department of Agriculture Office of the Chief Economist World Agricultural Outlook Board Long-term Projections Report OCE-2016-1 February 2016 USDA Agricultural Projections to 2025 Interagency

More information

AGRICULTURE CREDIT CORPORATION CASH WHEN YOU NEED IT MOST

AGRICULTURE CREDIT CORPORATION CASH WHEN YOU NEED IT MOST AGRICULTURE CREDIT CORPORATION CASH WHEN YOU NEED IT MOST OVERVIEW 1) Observations on Farm Debt in Canada 2) Overview of the APP and Changes 3) Overview of the Commodity Loan Program (CLP) 90000000 Total

More information

Research verification coordinators collaborate with Arkansas Division of Agriculture crop specialists to determine a typical production method for

Research verification coordinators collaborate with Arkansas Division of Agriculture crop specialists to determine a typical production method for 1 2 3 Research verification coordinators collaborate with Arkansas Division of Agriculture crop specialists to determine a typical production method for application in the crop enterprise budgets. 4 Whole

More information

U.S. Farm Income. Randy Schnepf Specialist in Agricultural Policy. February 28, 2014. Congressional Research Service 7-5700 www.crs.

U.S. Farm Income. Randy Schnepf Specialist in Agricultural Policy. February 28, 2014. Congressional Research Service 7-5700 www.crs. Randy Schnepf Specialist in Agricultural Policy February 28, 2014 Congressional Research Service 7-5700 www.crs.gov R40152 Summary According to USDA s Economic Research Service (ERS), national net farm

More information

University of Illinois CROP BUDGETS. Consumer Economics

University of Illinois CROP BUDGETS. Consumer Economics CROP BUDGETS Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics University of Illinois CROP BUDGETS, ILLINOIS, 2013 Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics University of Illinois July 2013 Introduction

More information

2015 Farm Bank Performance Report Key Findings

2015 Farm Bank Performance Report Key Findings 2015 Farm Bank Performance Report Key Findings The banking industry is the nation s most important supplier of credit to agriculture providing nearly 50 percent of all farm loans in the U.S. $170 billion

More information

David Sparling Chair Agri-food Innovation dsparling@ivey.ca. Nicoleta Uzea Post-doctoral Fellow nuzea@ivey.ca

David Sparling Chair Agri-food Innovation dsparling@ivey.ca. Nicoleta Uzea Post-doctoral Fellow nuzea@ivey.ca David Sparling Chair Agri-food Innovation dsparling@ivey.ca Nicoleta Uzea Post-doctoral Fellow nuzea@ivey.ca The Issue Canadian agriculture is at a pivotal juncture. The global agriculture and food system

More information

Issues In Agriculture

Issues In Agriculture Issues In Agriculture John Stulp, Commissioner of Agriculture November, 2010 Colorado Department of Agriculture CDA is charged with: Strengthening and advancing Colorado s agriculture industry; Ensuring

More information

FCC Ag Economics: Farm Sector Health Drives Farm Equipment Sales

FCC Ag Economics: Farm Sector Health Drives Farm Equipment Sales FCC Ag Economics: Farm Sector Health Drives Farm Equipment Sales Fall 2015 FCC Ag Economics: Farm Sector Health Drives Farm Equipment Sales 1 Introduction Agriculture is always evolving. Average farm sizes

More information

OBTAINING OPERATING CAPITAL FOR 2016 GRAIN OPERATIONS: NEEDS, RISKS, REWARDS & THE BOTTOM LINE

OBTAINING OPERATING CAPITAL FOR 2016 GRAIN OPERATIONS: NEEDS, RISKS, REWARDS & THE BOTTOM LINE OBTAINING OPERATING CAPITAL FOR 2016 GRAIN OPERATIONS: NEEDS, RISKS, REWARDS & THE BOTTOM LINE 02.03.16 JEFF RODIBAUGH FIRST FARMERS BANK & TRUST POLL: 2016 CORN BELT SEED CONFERENCE 1. You believe there

More information

How much financing will your farm business

How much financing will your farm business Twelve Steps to Ag Decision Maker Cash Flow Budgeting File C3-15 How much financing will your farm business require this year? When will money be needed and from where will it come? A little advance planning

More information

Ethanol Usage Projections & Corn Balance Sheet (mil. bu.)

Ethanol Usage Projections & Corn Balance Sheet (mil. bu.) Ethanol Usage Projections & Corn Balance Sheet (mil. bu.) Updated 12/21/215 Historic Est. Prelim. Proj. 216-17 Year: (production/marketing) 1/ 211-12 212-13 213-14 214-15 215-16 Low Med. 4 High Yield (bu.

More information

Euro Zone s Economic Outlook and What it Means for the United States

Euro Zone s Economic Outlook and What it Means for the United States WELCOME TO THE WEBINAR WEBINAR LINK: HTTP://FRBATL.ADOBECONNECT.COM/ECONOMY/ DIAL-IN NUMBER (MUST USE FOR AUDIO): 855-377-2663 ACCESS CODE: 71032685 Euro Zone s Economic Outlook and What it Means for the

More information

First Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call. 20 February 2015

First Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call. 20 February 2015 First Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call 20 February 2015 Safe Harbor Statement & Disclosures The earnings call and accompanying material include forward-looking comments and information concerning

More information

Third Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call. 21 August 2015

Third Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call. 21 August 2015 Third Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call 21 August 2015 Safe Harbor Statement & Disclosures The earnings call and accompanying material include forward-looking comments and information concerning the

More information

Agricultural Production and Research in Heilongjiang Province, China. Jiang Enchen. Professor, Department of Agricultural Engineering, Northeast

Agricultural Production and Research in Heilongjiang Province, China. Jiang Enchen. Professor, Department of Agricultural Engineering, Northeast 1 Agricultural Production and Research in Heilongjiang Province, China Jiang Enchen Professor, Department of Agricultural Engineering, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, China. Post code: 150030

More information

FUTURES TRADERS GUIDE TO THE WASDE

FUTURES TRADERS GUIDE TO THE WASDE FUTURES TRADERS GUIDE TO THE WASDE Your Guide To Understanding The USDA World Agriculture Supply & Demand Estimates For Corn, Soybeans And Wheat By Craig & Drew Daniels 1.800.800.3840 What Is The WASDE?

More information

Effectiveness of Increasing Liquidity as a Response to Increased Repayment Risk: A Case Study

Effectiveness of Increasing Liquidity as a Response to Increased Repayment Risk: A Case Study Effectiveness of Increasing Liquidity as a Response to Increased Repayment Risk: A Case Study ABSTRACT Volatile net farm incomes and potential for higher interest rates has strengthened the importance

More information

The U.S. and Midwest Economy in 2016: Implications for Supply Chain Firms

The U.S. and Midwest Economy in 2016: Implications for Supply Chain Firms The U.S. and Midwest Economy in 2016: Implications for Supply Chain Firms Rick Mattoon Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Right Place Supply Chain Management Conference

More information

Appendix A: Glossary

Appendix A: Glossary Appendix A: Glossary Acreage class - a structural indicator of farm size based on acres operated. The five acreage classes generally used in this report are: 1-49 acres, 50-179 acres, 180-499 acres, 500-999

More information

Helping New Ag Producers Grow

Helping New Ag Producers Grow Helping New Ag Producers Grow Objectives Who is Northwest Farm Credit Services? What services do we provide? How are loan decision made? What are some obstacles our applicants face? Who is Northwest FCS?

More information

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S.

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Voluntary - Public Date: 1/29/2013 GAIN Report Number:

More information

MORE UPSIDE FOR THE AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR

MORE UPSIDE FOR THE AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Dec. 23 Jan. 2 ECONOMY AND STRATEGY 51.879.2529 Clément Gignac Strategist and Chief Economist Stéfane Marion Assistant Chief Economist Paul-André Pinsonnault Senior Fixed Income Economist Marc Pinsonneault

More information

ANALYSIS OF POTENTIAL CAUSES

ANALYSIS OF POTENTIAL CAUSES ANALYSIS OF POTENTIAL CAUSES OF CONSUMER FOOD PRICE INFLATION Prepared for: THE RENEWABLE FUELS FOUNDATION Prepared by: November 2007 TABLE OF CONTENTS I. Executive Summary...4 A. Introduction...4 B. Key

More information

This article illustrated deferred tax liabilities for a cash crop farm in west central Indiana. The

This article illustrated deferred tax liabilities for a cash crop farm in west central Indiana. The September 2014 Computation of Deferred Liabilities Michael Langemeier, Associate Director, Center for Commercial Agriculture This article is one of a series of financial management articles that will examine

More information

China and the WTO: Implications for Grain Trade. Dr. Thomas I. Wahl IMPACT Center Washington State University

China and the WTO: Implications for Grain Trade. Dr. Thomas I. Wahl IMPACT Center Washington State University China and the WTO: Implications for Grain Trade Dr. Thomas I. Wahl Center Washington State University Overview of Presentation Background Why are we interested in China Current trade situation Demographics

More information

Enterprise Budgeting. By: Rod Sharp and Dennis Kaan Colorado State University

Enterprise Budgeting. By: Rod Sharp and Dennis Kaan Colorado State University Enterprise Budgeting By: Rod Sharp and Dennis Kaan Colorado State University One of the most basic and important production decisions is choosing the combination of products or enterprises to produce.

More information

Future drivers and trends in dairy and food markets

Future drivers and trends in dairy and food markets Future drivers and trends in dairy and food markets IAL 2011 August 2011 Michael Harvey, Senior Analyst Road map Topic 1 Future drivers and trends in dairy and food markets Topic 2 Where is the dairy sector

More information

A Business Newsletter for Agriculture. Vol. 12, No. 1 www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm. Energy agriculture - where s the nitrogen?

A Business Newsletter for Agriculture. Vol. 12, No. 1 www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm. Energy agriculture - where s the nitrogen? A Business Newsletter for Agriculture Vol. 12, No. 1 www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm November 2007 Energy agriculture - where s the nitrogen? by Don Hofstrand, value-added agriculture specialist, co-director

More information

Quick Cash Flow Projections

Quick Cash Flow Projections Quick Cash Flow Projections The Quick Cash Flow Projections tool assists farm operators in projecting cash needs, farm profitability, and debt servicing capabilities. The program also aids users in performing

More information

2010 Risk and Profit Conference Breakout Session Presenters. 9. Marketing Grain Using a Storage Hedge

2010 Risk and Profit Conference Breakout Session Presenters. 9. Marketing Grain Using a Storage Hedge Orlen Grunewald 2010 Risk and Profit Conference Breakout Session Presenters 9. Marketing Grain Using a Storage Hedge Orlen Grunewald is a professor in the Department of Agricultural

More information

CROP BUDGETS, ILLINOIS, 2014

CROP BUDGETS, ILLINOIS, 2014 CROP BUDGETS Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics University of Illinois CROP BUDGETS, ILLINOIS, 2014 Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics University of Illinois June 2014 Introduction

More information

Chapter 4 FINANCIAL REWARDS: WHAT PROGRAMS COMPENSATE LANDOWNERS

Chapter 4 FINANCIAL REWARDS: WHAT PROGRAMS COMPENSATE LANDOWNERS FINANCIAL REWARDS: WHAT PROGRAMS COMPENSATE LANDOWNERS L andowners look closely at the compensation offered by specific programs when considering whether enrollment makes sense for their particular circumstances.

More information

Revenue and Costs for Corn, Soybeans, Wheat, and Double-Crop Soybeans, Actual for 2009 through 2015, Projected 2016

Revenue and Costs for Corn, Soybeans, Wheat, and Double-Crop Soybeans, Actual for 2009 through 2015, Projected 2016 CROP COSTS Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics University of Illinois Revenue and Costs for Corn, Soybeans, Wheat, and Double-Crop Soybeans, Actual for 2009 through 2015, Projected 2016 Department

More information

NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF LIFE AND ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES OF UKRAINE

NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF LIFE AND ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES OF UKRAINE NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF LIFE AND ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES OF UKRAINE Ukrainian agricultural products competitiveness on European market in time of financial challenges Sergey Grygoryev Contents: Part 1. Trade

More information

Key global markets and suppliers impacting U.S. grain exports BRICs

Key global markets and suppliers impacting U.S. grain exports BRICs Key global markets and suppliers impacting U.S. grain exports BRICs Levin Flake Senior Agricultural Economist, Global Policy Analysis Division, OGA/FAS/USDA TEGMA Annual Meeting January 23 rd, 2015 U.S.

More information

Financing Capital Requirements

Financing Capital Requirements Of the independent growers, a typical one produces about four batches of I o thousand birds a year. His capital assets are about as follows: Land, buildings, and equipment, 30 thousand dollars; feed, 4,500

More information

MBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan, jkan@mba.org

MBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan, jkan@mba.org MBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan, jkan@mba.org Weak First Quarter, But Growth Expected to Recover MBA Economic and Mortgage Finance Commentary: May 2015 Broad economic growth in the US got off to a slow

More information

2013 World Grain Outlook

2013 World Grain Outlook 2013 World Grain Outlook Presented by: John Roach February 18, 2013 Disclaimer: Futures/options trading involves substantial risk of loss and trading may not be suitable for all investors. You should fully

More information

CROP REVENUE COVERAGE INSURANCE PROVIDES ADDITIONAL RISK MANAGEMENT WHEAT ALTERNATIVES 1

CROP REVENUE COVERAGE INSURANCE PROVIDES ADDITIONAL RISK MANAGEMENT WHEAT ALTERNATIVES 1 Presented at the 1997 Missouri Commercial Agriculture Crop Institute CROP REVENUE COVERAGE INSURANCE PROVIDES ADDITIONAL RISK MANAGEMENT WHEAT ALTERNATIVES 1 Presented by: Art Barnaby Managing Risk With

More information

U.S. Farmland and other Real Assets. A Research Note

U.S. Farmland and other Real Assets. A Research Note U.S. Farmland and other Real Assets A Research Note Stephen A. Kenney Senior Investment Analyst January 2010 DISCLAIMERS AND NOTE ON FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS Hancock Agricultural Investment Group, a

More information

MANAGING IN TOUGHER TIMES. Michael Boehlje Center for Food and Agricultural Business Purdue University

MANAGING IN TOUGHER TIMES. Michael Boehlje Center for Food and Agricultural Business Purdue University MANAGING IN TOUGHER TIMES Michael Boehlje Center for Food and Agricultural Business Purdue University Vulnerabilities to Continued Prosperity Increased supplies from productivity and acreage increases

More information

In 2010, many farmers will again choose between farm

In 2010, many farmers will again choose between farm 2010 The New ACRE Program: Costs and Effects By Brian C. Briggeman, Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City and Jody Campiche, Assistant Professor, Oklahoma State University In 2010, many farmers

More information

Educational Efforts With FAST Tools

Educational Efforts With FAST Tools Educational Efforts With FAST Tools By Paul N. Ellinger 1 farmdoc companion project initiated in 1999 FAST Tools Development of spreadsheet-based tools to aid decisions for producers, lenders, consultants

More information

A Strong U.S. Dollar Changes Everything

A Strong U.S. Dollar Changes Everything Schwab Center for Financial Research A Strong U.S. Dollar Changes Everything A white paper by Kathy A. Jones, Senior Vice President, Chief Fixed Income Strategist The U.S. dollar is near its highest level

More information

THE FINANCIAL CRISIS: Is This a REPEAT OF THE 80 S FOR AGRICULTURE? Mike Boehlje and Chris Hurt, Department of Agricultural Economics

THE FINANCIAL CRISIS: Is This a REPEAT OF THE 80 S FOR AGRICULTURE? Mike Boehlje and Chris Hurt, Department of Agricultural Economics THE FINANCIAL CRISIS: Is This a REPEAT OF THE 80 S FOR AGRICULTURE? Mike Boehlje and Chris Hurt, Department of Agricultural Economics The current financial crisis in the capital markets combined with recession

More information

Weathering Unexpected Downturns in Agriculture. Paul Ellinger University of Illinois pellinge@illinois.edu

Weathering Unexpected Downturns in Agriculture. Paul Ellinger University of Illinois pellinge@illinois.edu Weathering Unexpected Downturns in Agriculture Paul Ellinger University of Illinois pellinge@illinois.edu Outline Risks and risk weights Agricultural producers Profitability Asset valuations Simple shocks

More information

Strategic Planning: External Environmental Scanning

Strategic Planning: External Environmental Scanning Strategic Business Planning for Commercial Producers Business Environment Strategic Planning: External Environmental Scanning Craig Dobbins Center for Food and Agricultural Business Purdue University Any

More information

AgriInsurance in Canada

AgriInsurance in Canada AgriInsurance in Canada Brad Klak, President and Managing Director Merle Jacobson, COO, Operations Division Agriculture Financial Services Corporation Alberta, Canada Agriculture in Canada Total Cash Receipts

More information

AGRICULTURAL PROBLEMS OF JAPAN

AGRICULTURAL PROBLEMS OF JAPAN AGRICULTURAL PROBLEMS OF JAPAN Takeshi Kimura, Agricultural Counselor Embassy of Japan, Washington, D. C. I would like, first, to sketch the Japanese agricultural situation and, second, to review Japan's

More information

Agriculture Technology and The Future of Farming

Agriculture Technology and The Future of Farming Agriculture Technology and The Future of Farming It s Not Your Grandfather s Farm, Anymore Robert Tse USDA Rural Development Embassy Suites Hotel Monterey, CA January 29, 2015 It s Not Your Grandfather

More information

Managing Specialty Crop Risk in North Carolina: A Working Paper

Managing Specialty Crop Risk in North Carolina: A Working Paper Managing Specialty Crop Risk in North Carolina: A Working Paper James Robinson, Research & Policy Associate, RAFI Scott Marlow, Executive Director, RAFI Michelle Madeley, MPH-MCRP Candidate, UNC Chapel

More information

Crop-Share and Cash Rent Lease Comparisons Version 1.6. Introduction

Crop-Share and Cash Rent Lease Comparisons Version 1.6. Introduction Crop-Share and Cash Rent Lease Comparisons Version 1.6 Alan Miller and Craig L. Dobbins Spreadsheet can be found at http://www.agecon.purdue.edu/extension/pubs/farmland_values.asp Introduction This spreadsheet

More information

AIC Farm Bill Brief #1

AIC Farm Bill Brief #1 University of California July 2007 Agricultural Issues Center AIC Farm Bill Brief #1 The Farm Bill and California Food and Agriculture* Daniel A. Sumner** Every five years or so the United States reconsiders

More information

FLEXIBLE EXCHANGE RATES

FLEXIBLE EXCHANGE RATES FLEXIBLE EXCHANGE RATES Along with globalization has come a high degree of interdependence. Central to this is a flexible exchange rate system, where exchange rates are determined each business day by

More information

Farm Tax Record Book SAMPLE

Farm Tax Record Book SAMPLE Farm Tax Record Book TABLE OF CONTENTS Farm Receipts... Milk Sales and Deductions Worksheet... Government Payments Worksheet... Commodity Certificates... Sale of Livestock Worksheet... Farm Expenses...0

More information

EC2105, Professor Laury EXAM 2, FORM A (3/13/02)

EC2105, Professor Laury EXAM 2, FORM A (3/13/02) EC2105, Professor Laury EXAM 2, FORM A (3/13/02) Print Your Name: ID Number: Multiple Choice (32 questions, 2.5 points each; 80 points total). Clearly indicate (by circling) the ONE BEST response to each

More information

U.S. agriculture is notorious for its boom and bust cycles. During

U.S. agriculture is notorious for its boom and bust cycles. During Agriculture s Boom-Bust Cycles: Is This Time Different? By Jason Henderson, Brent Gloy and Michael Boehlje U.S. agriculture is notorious for its boom and bust cycles. During the past 1 years, shifts in

More information

Center for Commercial Agriculture

Center for Commercial Agriculture Center for Commercial Agriculture Agricultural Price and Land Values: Insights from Participants in the Financial Health of Farming and Land Values Conference by Emily D. Lord 1, Nicole J. Olynk Widmar

More information

Grains and Oilseeds Outlook

Grains and Oilseeds Outlook United States Department of Agriculture Grains and Oilseeds Outlook Friday, February 20, 2015 www.usda.gov/oce/forum Agricultural Outlook Forum 2015 Released: Friday, February 20, 2015 GRAINS AND OILSEEDS

More information

The impact of the falling yen on U.S. import prices

The impact of the falling yen on U.S. import prices APRIL 2014 VOLUME 3 / NUMBER 7 GLOBAL ECONOMY The impact of the falling yen on U.S. import prices By David Mead and Sharon Royales In the fall of 2012, Japan set forth economic policies aimed at turning

More information

U.S. Farm Policy: Overview and Farm Bill Update. Jason Hafemeister 12 June 2014. Office of the Chief Economist. Trade Bureau

U.S. Farm Policy: Overview and Farm Bill Update. Jason Hafemeister 12 June 2014. Office of the Chief Economist. Trade Bureau U.S. Farm Policy: Office of the Chief Economist Trade Bureau Overview and Farm Bill Update Jason Hafemeister 12 June 2014 Agenda Background on U.S. Agriculture area, output, inputs, income Key Elements

More information

Repayment Capacity Sensitivity Analysis Using Purdue Farm Financial Analysis Spreadsheet

Repayment Capacity Sensitivity Analysis Using Purdue Farm Financial Analysis Spreadsheet Repayment Capacity Sensitivity Analysis Using Purdue Farm Financial Analysis Spreadsheet ABSTRACT Many agricultural producers purchased capital items the past few years and some used borrowed funds to

More information

Existing Loan Products

Existing Loan Products Existing Products In addition to the following financial institutions loan products; there are also other programs and debt products specific to cattle producers: Advance Program Offered by participating

More information

Center for Commercial Agriculture

Center for Commercial Agriculture Center for Commercial Agriculture Investment and Financing Behavior of Farmers: Responding to Boom and Bust Times by Michael Boehlje The Set-Up Although the U.S. farming sector has exhibited very strong

More information

Assessing and Improving Farm Profitability

Assessing and Improving Farm Profitability 1 Fact Sheet 539 Assessing and Improving Farm Profitability Is my farm making money? This is a question farm managers think about often. To stay in business, the farm must generate a profit, at least in

More information

Grains and Oilseeds Outlook

Grains and Oilseeds Outlook United States Department of Agriculture Grains and Oilseeds Outlook Friday, February 26, 2016 www.usda.gov/oce/forum Agricultural Outlook Forum 2016 Released: Friday, February 26, 2016 GRAINS AND OILSEEDS

More information

STATISTICAL PROFILE OF CAPE BRETON. Prepared By: Nova Scotia Federation of Agriculture

STATISTICAL PROFILE OF CAPE BRETON. Prepared By: Nova Scotia Federation of Agriculture STATISTICAL PROFILE OF CAPE BRETON Prepared By: Nova Scotia Federation of Agriculture 1.0 Introduction Agriculture in the Local Economy Agriculture in Cape Breton is characterized by a diversity of farm

More information

the Business environment of Beef

the Business environment of Beef the Business environment of Beef understanding the Business environment of Beef The farmers and ranchers who raise cattle for beef face many of the same, if not more, unpredictable and forceful influences

More information

Agricultural Balance Sheet (Financial Statement)

Agricultural Balance Sheet (Financial Statement) Agricultural Balance Sheet (Financial Statement) This form can be used as a guide to collect information for an annual financial statement or for an application for credit. If you are using the Adobe PDF

More information

Macroeconomic Influences on U.S. Agricultural Trade

Macroeconomic Influences on U.S. Agricultural Trade Macroeconomic Influences on U.S. Agricultural Trade In addition to the influence of shifting patterns of growth in foreign populations and per capita income, cyclical macroeconomic factors associated with

More information

Agriculture (Ag) Trade Finance. Agriculture / Commodity Trade Finance

Agriculture (Ag) Trade Finance. Agriculture / Commodity Trade Finance Agriculture (Ag) Trade Finance Agriculture / Commodity Trade Finance Table of Contents Select U.S. Ag Export Statistics Need For Ag Trade Finance Overview of Ag Trade Finance Solutions Ag Trade Finance

More information

1. Prices now 2. TA APH yield endorsement 3. Re-rating 4. Suggestions

1. Prices now 2. TA APH yield endorsement 3. Re-rating 4. Suggestions Crop Insurance Update Gary Schnitkey University of Illinois Topics 1. Prices now 2. TA APH yield endorsement 3. Re-rating 4. Suggestions 2 1 Combo Product and Old Products Type COMBO Product Old Product

More information

ProPartners Financial Application Cover Page Please fax to 651-282-7861 with application

ProPartners Financial Application Cover Page Please fax to 651-282-7861 with application Loan Information: ProPartners Financial Application Cover Page Please fax to 651-282-7861 with application Applicant Name: Requested Amount Dealer Buy Down - % Dealer Add-On + % (Buy-down and add-on are

More information

AGGREGATE DEMAND AND AGGREGATE SUPPLY The Influence of Monetary and Fiscal Policy on Aggregate Demand

AGGREGATE DEMAND AND AGGREGATE SUPPLY The Influence of Monetary and Fiscal Policy on Aggregate Demand AGGREGATE DEMAND AND AGGREGATE SUPPLY The Influence of Monetary and Fiscal Policy on Aggregate Demand Suppose that the economy is undergoing a recession because of a fall in aggregate demand. a. Using

More information

Working Capital: The Key in Volatile Times By Dr. David M. Kohl

Working Capital: The Key in Volatile Times By Dr. David M. Kohl Working Capital: The Key in Volatile Times By Dr. David M. Kohl 02/28/13 My memories take me back to Super Bowl Sunday in 1989 in St. Louis next to the old Busch Stadium for the first meeting of the Farm

More information

Puerto Rico Farm Service Agency Programs. Juan M. Ortiz Serbiá State Executive Director Wanda J. Pérez Farm Programs Director

Puerto Rico Farm Service Agency Programs. Juan M. Ortiz Serbiá State Executive Director Wanda J. Pérez Farm Programs Director Puerto Rico Farm Service Agency Programs Juan M. Ortiz Serbiá State Executive Director Wanda J. Pérez Farm Programs Director FSA Farm Programs Farm Loans Direct Program Guaranteed Program Farm Programs

More information

Contents. Acknowledgements... iv. Source of Data...v

Contents. Acknowledgements... iv. Source of Data...v Kentucky Farm Business Management Program Annual Summary Data: Kentucky Grain Farms - 2011 Agricultural Economics Extension No. 2012-17 June 2012 By: Amanda R. Jenkins Michael C. Forsythe University of

More information