Commercial vehicle perspectives Brazil

Transcription

1 1 Commercial vehicle perspectives Brazil Short market study São Paulo, July 2013

2 Agenda Demand outlook and underlying drivers Key challenges for the Brazilian commercial vehicle industry Strategic levers to strengthen the competitive position Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 2

3 Source: ANFAVEA; Roland Berger 3 A strong sales and production volume decline made 2012 a difficult year for the Brazilian commercial vehicles industry Market development Brazil commercial vehicles in Brazil, ['000 units] TRUCK (> 6 tons) BUS % % Production Sales

4 Source: ANFAVEA; Roland Berger 4 BACKUP The sales and production volumes displayed in this study do not include trucks below 6 tons gross vehicle weight Detailed sales and production volume development in Brazil ['000 units] SALES CATEGORY Semi light duty Light duty Medium duty Heavy duty Total truck > 6 tons Bus TOTAL > 6 tons GVW [to] > PRO- DUCTION Semi light duty Light duty Medium duty Heavy duty Total truck > 6 tons Bus TOTAL > 6 tons >

5 Source: Roland Berger 5 Despite governmental actions, the market declined due to the EURO 5 post-buy effects and a slow economy in Brazil and export markets Major reasons for market drop in 2012 NEGATIVE INFLUENCE POSITIVE INFLUENCE Euro 5 post-buy effect Attractive financing conditions Economic slowdown Governmental support for busses Export decline Continued infrastructure investments

6 Source: Roland Berger 6 The demand of the Brazilian commercial vehicle industry will be impacted by 4 major trends in the next years Impacting factors for commercial vehicle market demand in Brazil, MACROECONOMIC STABILITY FLEET RENEWAL DRIVER REGULATION INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTS > Stable inflation and exchange rates > FINAME rates will support economic activity > High avg. age of truck fleet of ~17 years > Fleet renewal will drive truck demand > New driver regulation reduces truck and bus driver working hours > Increasing number of trucks or shift towards bigger trucks expected > Mega-events already included in base truck demand > Investment into BRT systems will push bus demand

7 Source: Itaú BBA; Santander; Roland Berger 7 1 MACROECONOMIC STABILITY Stable growth projected for the next years Current FINAME rates for acquisition of commercial vehicles remain at all-time low Macroeconomic outlook for Brazil GDP GROWTH RATES [%] Forecast INFLATION 1) [%] Forecast 5,2 7,5 2,7 0,9 3,1 3,0 3,5 5,9 4,3 5,9 6,5 5,8 6,0 6,5 7,0-0, EXCHANGE RATES [BRL/USD] Forecast INTEREST RATES Forecast FINAME 2) SELIC ) IPCA IBGE; 2) Only bus and trucks funding line

8 Source: ANEF; Roland Berger 8 1 MACROECONOMIC STABILITY BACKUP Financing has played and will maintain a critical role for the development of CV sales Increasing role as sales tool Outlook on financing for commercial vehicles CORPORATE AUTOMOTIVE FINANCING [BRL bn] EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF CV FINANCING Corporate default rate > 30 days [%] Corporate automotive financing +39% % > Attractive financing environment for customers low interest rates, low down payments, long financing timeframes > Continuation of FINAME with attractive conditions as a must to maintain CV growth dynamic > Closer management of default rates with less credit availability for unstable customers > Increasing role of captive banks as universal banks are consolidating their portfolio and limit exposure > Decreasing spreads financing becoming a sales tool and less a profit generator

9 2 FLEET RENEWAL The high age of trucks should drive an increasing renewal, but primarily for smaller operators with less financial flexibility Fleet age distribution in Brazil Cumulative age distribution curve Ø 17.2 Age [years] 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Age distribution by operator type Companies 61% 22% 11% 6% 1% Cooperatives 39% 27% 21% 12% 1% Autonomous 17% 23% 32% 25% 3% Until 10 years years years years >40 years KEY CHALLENGES of a fleet renewal program > How to stimulate real additional demand rather than incentivize already planned renewals? > How to habilitate truck owners to afford and finance new vehicles? > How to avoid continued disruption of market prices impacting planability? > How to ensure that old trucks are disables/recycled? >... Source: ANTT 2009; Fenabrave; Roland Berger 9

10 2 FLEET RENEWAL BACKUP Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo already started their own initiatives to encourage carriers to renew their fleet Current fleet renewal programs in Brazil 1) Development Agency of the State Government CURRENT INITIATIVES IN PLACE RenovAR > RenovAr - National Renewal Fleet Trucks, launched in 2009 > Aims to renew all trucks > 20 years in the next 10 years > Bonus when trucks are delivered to recycling centers Rio de Janeiro > Launched on February 2013, expects to renew 30% of fleet and to reduce the average fleet age of 17.1 to 12 years until 2017 > Old truck is exchanged for a certificate that allows the purchase of a new vehicle free of ICMS (12%) São Paulo > Buyers finance the purchase of new vehicles without incurring interest, within eight years > Initially offered to operators in the Port of Santos region Highest average truck age in Brazil > Intends to renew over 1, years old trucks serving Port of Santos Source: Press clipping; Roland Berger 10

11 Source: Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 11 3 DRIVER REGULATION The new driver regulations may impact the demand Exact consequences not yet clear New driver regulations in Brazil 1) NEW DRIVING REGULATION (12.619/12) 2) LIKELY IMPACT ON CV SALES REGULATION Regulates working hours of truck drivers > Maximum driving time 4 hours > 11 hours of rest in a 24 hour period MORE DRIVERS Same # of trucks Possible impact p.a. 0 units CRITICAL POINTS Transportation companies and associations have been trying to modify certain aspects of regulation: > Freight cost increase estimated at ~14% > Lack of infrastructure and rest stops throughout the country MORE TRUCKS Bigger trucks Stable # of drivers More drivers Possible impact p.a. 3-5 k units 1) Enacted in 2012, scheduled to go into effect in March ) Applies to vehicles with more than 10 seats and cargo with a gross weight over 4,536 Kg

12 Source: Santander; PDE 2020; EPL; Press research; Roland Berger 12 4 INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTS The Mega-events will have no big impact on the truck demand, as they are already considered in the baseline Mega-events and their influence on truck demand MEGA-EVENTS OVER THE YEARS Petrochemical Abreu e Lima 13 bn BRL 2007 Petrochemical Complex RJ 22 bn BRL 2008 World cup in bn BRL Nuclear power plant Angra 3 10 bn BRL 2010 CONSUMER VS. INDUSTRIAL GPD Indexed: 2005 = 100% R 2 Industrial GDP = 0.10 R 2 Consumer GDP = 0.89 Industrial GDP Consumer GDP bn BRL Açu Super Port bn BRL Hydroelectric Santo Antonio bn BRL Olympic games in bn BRL Hydroelectric Belo Monte Truck sales

13 Source: BRTdata; press research; Roland Berger 13 4 INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTS Bus demand will profit from BRT investments across Brazil Announced and expected extensions of major BRT systems in Brazil Salvador Brasilia Goiânia Belo Horizonte Sumaré Rio de Janeiro Mauá Diadema São Paulo Curitiba Porto Alegre BRAZILIAN BRT SYSTEMS City Current Extension [Km] Planned Expansion [Km] Completion date Passengers/ day ['000] São Paulo ,109 Curitiba Rio de Janeiro ,631 Porto Alegre Brasilia Mauá Diadema Sumaré Belo Horizonte ,308 Goiânia Salvador Others N/A 5, ,065

14 Considering all impacts, we expect an average market growth of 3-5% in the next years Summary of our market assessment IMPACT OF DRIVER / Return of market to normality 5-10% 1 Macroeconomic stability ~3% ~3% p.a. 2 Fleet renewal program 0-1% 0-1% p.a. 3 Driver regulation 0-2% 0-1% p.a. 4 Infrastructure investments 0-2% (only bus) 0-2% (only bus) ~10-15% ~3-5% MARKET GROWTH Source: Roland Berger 14

15 Source: HIS; ANFAVEA; Roland Berger 15 Mid-term demand outlook remains very difficult to forecast 2013 should grow by ~15-25 k units over 2012 Commercial vehicle outlook Brazil, ['000 units] TRUCK (> 6 tons) Optimistic Pessimistic CAGR BUS CAGR % 5.2% % 6.4% e 2014e 2015e e 2014e 2015e

16 Source: Roland Berger 16 On top of the slower market growth, several challenges will increase competitive pressure for the Brazilian CV industry Challenges for the commercial vehicle industry KEY CHALLENGES A B C D E NEW MARKET ENTRANTS VEHICLE PROLIFERATION INCREASING TCO FOCUS COST INFLATION SUPPLY CHAIN PRESSURE INCREASING COMPETITIVE PRESSURE > Market price > Market share > Product offering > Margin >

17 Source: Press clipping, Roland Berger New Plants Capacity increase 17 A NEW MARKET ENTRANTS Brazil will attract new entrants that will heavily invest into local capacity and try to quickly capture market share New commercial vehicle manufacturer in Brazil New plants under construction / planned Currently installed capacity: ~280 k units Joint Venture, Bahia Joint Venture, Pernambuco OEM Capacity increase ['000 units] Joint Venture, Bahia ~100 Joint Venture, Rio de Janeiro 8 5 Greenfield, Ponta Grossa, Paraná SHIYAN YUNLIHONG Greenfield, Rio Grande do Sul Greenfield, São Paulo Joint Venture, Santa Catarina ~130 FAW: Factory investment study Brazilian states with commercial vehicle production Total capacity increase 230

18 Source: Roland Berger 18 B VEHICLE PROLIFERATION Truck demand will change and more sub-segments will be introduced Proliferation of the vehicle portfolio MAIN SEGMENTS LONG-HAUL DISTRIBUTION CITY DELIVERY > Suitable for long-distance transportation on highways > Great demand through growing transportation > Suitable for medium distances > Lower demand, as considered inefficient for long distances and not suitable for inner-city transportation > Suitable for short distances > Frequent loadings/unloadings > Great demand through growing urbanization and inner-city transportation Urban logistics hub PROLIFERATION OF THE PORTFOLIO ~10 km City/intercity delivery "Small" long-haul Long-haul Suburbs ~10-20 km Urban city center City delivery truck ~10 km Main city center City/intercity delivery "Small" long-haul Long-haul Urban city center ~10 km ~10-20 km ~10 km Suburbs Urban logistics hub

19 Source: Roland Berger 19 B VEHICLE PROLIFERATION BACKUP Driving restrictions are limiting the usage of medium and heavy duty trucks and encouraging the sale of light trucks Driving restrictions EXAMPLE SÃO PAULO RESULTS OF A GLOBAL ROLAND BERGER SURVEY: INCREASED NUMBER OF LIGHT TRUCKS IN MEGACITIES 2% Do not agree at all 2% Do not agree 16% Neutral 47% Agree 33% Strongly agree "Especially between cities. For domestic distribution, you need lighter trucks" "In the emerging markets, light trucks are definitely going to be a big trend [ ]" The downtown of Sao Paulo can not be entered with trucks >6.3 m length and >2.2 m width (additional emissions limits apply) during the day "One of the most important effects has been the changes in delivery schedules in city centers nowadays, there are a lot of urban night delivery services." "Changes in lifestyle are a major driver for increased commodity flows, which also require new transportation concepts as well as new vehicle concepts."

20 Source: Press research; Roland Berger 20 B VEHICLE PROLIFERATION In the bus segment, a national strategy to improve standardization of powertrain concepts is necessary to reduce high variations Bus powertrain concepts CURRENTLY APPLIED BUS POWERTRAIN CONCEPTS FUEL TYPE EXAMPLES COMMENTS Diesel Biodiesel Ethanol Gas Electro Battery/Hybrid São Paulo, Curitiba Curitiba, Rio de Janeiro São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro Belo Horizonte, Ceará, São Paulo Brasília, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo Curitiba, Porto Alegre, Rio de Janeiro > Highly fragmented power train fuel mix defined by municipalities > High number of power train variations leads to high R&D spending and lack of scale > To reduce variations, a national strategy to be developed with Brazilian government

21 Source: Roland Berger 21 C INCREASING TCO FOR OPERATORS Driven by regulation, operating costs will continue to increase Fleets start to pay more attention to TCO calculation Development of operating cost per vehicle TCO STRUCTURE COST TREND Vehicle price ~20% > Significant increase of the vehicle price > Increasing technology and equipment per vehicle Driver ~20% > High labor cost increases in Brazil > New driver regulations Shifting buying criteria Fuel Maintenance Tolls and insurances ~40% ~10% 10% > Rising fuel cost > Additional cost for AdBlue (Urea) > Increasing engines efficiency > Stricter safety regulations > Increasing tolls for long-distance and distribution Impact on OEM product and service offering Initial investment Operating costs

22 D COST INFLATION The cost inflation in Brazil, headed by yearly increases of ~10% for direct labor, can't be compensated by productivity improvements Cost inflation in Brazil Auto parts industry operating costs Labor cost and productivity development 1) Indexed: 2002=100 20% 22% 21% 21% 21% 18% 18% Others COST PER HOUR % 18% 21% 24% 23% 26% 27% Labor % 60% 58% 55% 56% 56% 55% Raw material PRODUCTIVITY Estimation Source: Sindipeças; MDIC; Roland Berger 22

23 E SUPPLY CHAIN PRESSURE In line with the market downturn and cost increase, Brazilian suppliers are facing a profitability challenge EBIT margin development of Brazilian suppliers compared to global suppliers [%] 7.6 Suppliers in Brazil ~ Suppliers globally ~ Source: SINDIPEÇAS; Global Roland Berger Automotive supplier study 23

24 Source: Roland Berger 24 Several strategic levers exist that promise opportunities to escape the increasing competitive pressure Challenges for the commercial vehicle industry and possible strategic levers KEY CHALLENGES STRATEGIC LEVERS A B NEW MARKET ENTRANTS VEHICLE PROLIFERATION INCREASING COMPETITIVE PRESSURE > Market price 1 COST EFFICIENCY 2 SUPPLIER DEVELOPMENT C INCREASING TCO FOCUS > Market share > Product offering 3 PRODUCT & SERVICE PORTFOLIO D COST INFLATION > Margin 4 SALES EXCELLENCE E SUPPLY CHAIN PRESSURE > 5 EXPORT MARKETS

25 Source: Roland Berger 25 1 COST EFFICIENCY Cost efficiency is a continued basic requirement for OEMs and suppliers in order to cope with the increasing margin pressure Cost efficiency GOALS > Increase labor efficiency > Increase equipment availability > Reduce inventory > Increase flexibility > Improve quality costs > Improve utilization > COST REDUCTION TARGETS VS STRUCTURAL COST % OPERATIONAL COST 10-15% WHAT TO DO? > Continuous improvement program using Lean and Kaizen techniques > Drive cultural change > Training/qualification of personnel > Monitor progress (performance, implementation status and financial effects)

26 Source: Roland Berger 26 2 SUPPLIER DEVELOPMENT The tough market situation and increasing requirements might require help from "outside" for the Brazilian supplier base Brazilian supply base starting to fall apart Reduced volumes and slower recovery CONTINUED COST CHALLENGE STRICTER LOCAL CONTENT REQUIREMENTS STRUGGLING TIER 2 SUPPLY BASE > Enhanced supplier development (OEMs, Tier-1s) > Consolidation (esp. Tier-2 base through Tier-1s) > Financing programs (OEMs, Tier -1s, BNDES) > Price increases (Sustainability?) > WHAT TO DO?

27 Source: Roland Berger 27 3 PRODUCT & SERVICE PORTFOLIO The product portfolio needs to be adapted to the new customer demands Stronger proliferation offers growth opportunities Truck product portfolio challenges PORTFOLIO IMPROVEMENT WHAT TO DO? Performance Comfort Safety Upgrading > Prepare for higher technological content Durability TCO Emission PREMIUM > Plan with shorter product pipeline cycles > Adopt technology of global platforms Coverage VALUE LD MD HD > Extend portfolio and search for market niches

28 Source: Roland Berger 28 3 PRODUCT & SERVICE PORTFOLIO As portfolios become make similar across brands, additional services are needed to differentiate from competition Increasing importance of services SELECTED SERVICES WITH INCREASING IMPORTANCE WHAT TO DO? Finance products (leasing, rental, buy back, etc.) Customer & driver training Parts & service availability Telematics / fleet management Extended warranty and maintenance Accessories & driver comfort > Evaluate current and future customer requirements > Prioritize gaps to be closed > Bring /adapt global products and services to Brazil > Develop OEM/dealer business plan

29 Source: Roland Berger 29 4 SALES EXCELLENCE Dealers need increasing support from OEMs to better deal with the increasing competitive challenge Sales excellence COMPARISON OF CV DEALER PERFORMANCE WHAT TO DO? REVENUE F&I Aftersales Used vehicle sales New vehicle sales 5% 1% 10% 35% 50% 34% 0% 65% New business areas needed to compensate New vehicle margin under pressure > Develop sales network > Improve dealer performance > Develop business model for after sales and used truck > Implement F&I business model >

30 Source: IHS; JD Power; ADEFA; Roland Berger 30 5 EXPORT MARKETS Several other South American market show attractive size and growth for the coming years to be captured by "Brazilian" OEMs Development of major South America truck and bus markets 2012 vs 2015 ['000 units] ARGENTINA CHILE PERU % % % ECUADOR COLOMBIA VENEZUELA % % 1) % Bus 2012 Truck ) Record year 2012 and post-buy effect 2015 expected

31 Source: Anuário ANFAVEA 2012; Roland Berger 31 5 EXPORT MARKETS Export markets could provide the additional growth potential apart from the Brazilian market Cost competitiveness is key Destination of Brazilian commercial vehicle exports, 2010 ['000 units] Mexico Colombia Ecuador Peru Chile 500 Venezuela 945 3,502 6,654 Argentina Brazil 16,763 1,108 1,459 Uruguay = 32,755 South Africa WHAT TO DO? > Adapt product portfolio for export markets > Ensure cost competitiveness > Professionalize importer/dealer > Improve/extend sales and service network

32 Source: Roland Berger 32 In the context of attractive growth, the market will gradually change over, presenting amble challenges to the Brazilian CV industry 1 Stable growth, albeit much slower than in recent years 2 Increasing competition with continuing price/ margin pressure 3 Necessary step-change for CV OEMs to defend/ develop market position

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