The Brazilian Economy and Investment Opportunities
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1 The Brazilian Economy and Investment Guido Mantega Minister of Finance
2 Brazilian Infrastructure Concession Program US$ 235 billion in the coming years Largest concession program in recent decades Investment: most effective instrument to stimulate the economy in a period of international crisis
3 Infrastructure Concession Program
4 Increased investment is a government priority Gross Fixed Capital Formation, in % of GDP * 4-Quarter accumulated up to 3 rd quarter of 2012 Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE)
5 Public sector investment expands As % of GDP * Projections Source: Brazilian National Treasury (STN)/Ministry of Finance
6 The Brazilian economy presents favorable conditions for sustainable growth and investment expansion.
7 Sound Fundamentals Fiscal soundness Budget balance estimates for 2012, as % of GDP * Brazil: actual budget balance for the year of Source: IMF and Central Bank of Brazil
8 Federal Government three largest expenditures under control Social Security Payroll expenses Debt interest payments
9 Social Security revenues and benefits In US$ billions and as % of GDP Source: Brazilian National Treasury (STN)/Ministry of Finance
10 Federal Government payroll expenses, as % of GDP Source: Brazilian National Treasury (STN)/Ministry of Finance
11 Debt interest payments, as % of GDP Source: Brazilian National Treasury (STN)/Ministry of Finance
12 Federal Government primary surplus In R$ billion 14,2 20,8 26,1 Jan 2013: R$ 26,1 bi (24%) Full target for the whole year of 2013: R$ 108,1 billion Source: Ministry of Finance
13 Reduced public debt Consolidated Public Sector Net Debt, as % of GDP Source: Central Bank of Brazil (BCB)
14 Fiscal Transparency 2012 Index of the Open Budget (International Budget Partnership) From a list of 100 countries, Brazil ranks as the 12th most transparent country with its public accounts. Source: International Budget Partnership
15 Inflation under control CPI inflation, Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) In % YoY Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE)
16 Internal Market: Dynamism in retail sales Broad retail sales (PMC), seasonally adjusted In % YoY Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE)
17 Internal Market: Brazilian consumer market will be the fifth largest in the world in 2020 Global consumer market, in US$ trillion Source: Exame Magazine and McKinsey
18 New macroeconomic framework to stimulate investment MONETARY POLICY Low interest rate: 7.25% EXCHANGE RATE POLICY Floating exchange rates, with lower volatility FISCAL POLICY (US$ 23 bn. in 2012) Tax cuts Payroll tax reduction (40 sectors) Reform of the Merchandise Circulation and Services Tax (ICMS) and other taxes
19 Less exchange rate volatility Real effective exchange rate, percentage change from Jun/12 to Feb/13 Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF)
20 Measures to stimulate investment: Reduced costs
21 Decrease in Brazilian electricity prices INDUSTRIAL electricity prices in selected countries, in R$*/MWh HOUSEHOLD electricity prices in selected countries, in R$*/MWh * Average exchange rate in 2011 equal to R$ 1.67 per US$ Source: National Electricity Agency and International Energy Agency
22 Increasing demand for infrastructure services Demand in the airline industry In number of passengers Source: National Agency for Civil Aviation (ANAC)
23 Increasing external trade Brazilian trade flow, in US$ billion Source: Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade (MDIC)
24 Significant growth in port traffic Total cargo handling in ports In millions of tons Source: National Agency of Waterway Transportation (ANTAQ)
25 Vehicular traffic Thousand vehicles per km on highways under concession Source: Brazilian Association of Highway Concessionaires (ABCR)
26 Vehicle licensing New vehicles (buses, trucks, light commercial vehicles and cars) In million of vehicles Source: Brazilian Association of Automotive Vehicle Manufactures (ANFAVEA)
27 Concessions: favorable financing conditions Private Banks / Banking syndicate Capital market instruments: Infrastructure Private Sector Bonds Real-Estate Receivables Certificate Credit Rights Investment Funds Brazilian Infrastructure Bonds Investment Funds Infrastructure Project IPO Equity BNDES Banco do Brasil Caixa Econômica
28 * Includes expected investments in regional airports Source: National Logistics & Planning Company (EPL), Energy Research Company (EPE), Ministry of Mining and Energy (MME) and Ministry of Finance
29 Confidence: Foreign direct investment at high levels Foreign direct investment, in US$ billions Source: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD)
30 High demand for Brazilian bonds Brazilian sovereign bond issuance yield and US Treasury* yield, 10 yrs, in % YoY * Secondary market on the same date Source: Ministry of Finance and Bloomberg
31 Confidence and profitability Security for investment: clear rules, contract binding, reliable legal and institutional framework. Profitability: one of the few countries that do not tax dividends and profit remittance. Infrastructure program: return of at least 10% in real terms for the investor.
32
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