The Energy Situation and Market in Brazil

Transcription

1 Solarthermie in Brasilien Darmstadt, The Energy Situation and Market in Brazil Prof. Dr. Terence Trennepohl Post-doc at Harvard University Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman LLP, New York

2 Outline 1. Brazil: an Overview of a Country of Opportunities 2. Characteristics of Infrastructure Projects in Brazil (Project Finance and PPP s) 3. The Pre-Salt and the PAC 4. Energy Matrix and the Electric Sector 5. The Role played by Ethanol

3 1. Brazil: an Overview of a Country of Opportunities

4

5 Facts and Figures - Brazil is the 5th largest country in the world after Russia, Canada, China and the United States. - The 3th largest in the Americas; with a total area of 8,511,965 m2 (3,286,488 sq mi), including 55,455 m2 (21,411 sq mi) of water. - Brazil is the largest national economy in Latin America, the world s 10th largest economy at market exchange rates and the 9th largest in purchasing power parity (according to the IMF and the WB) with large and developed agricultural, manufacturing and service sectors.

6 -Brazil is the world's 10th largest energy consumer. Its energy comes from renewable sources, particularly hydroelectricity and ethanol; and non renewable sources, mainly oil and natural gas. -A global power in agriculture and natural resources, Brazil witnessed tremendous economic growth over the past three decades. - Brazil is expected to become a major oil producer and exporter, having recently made huge oil discoveries.

7 - Brazil faced the crisis with a strong economy and emerged from it stronger than before - Expanding investments at the domestic markets and producing commodities - Low inflation rates (between 1990 and 1995 inflation averaged 764% a year) - The economy is growing again at an annual rate of 5%

8 - According to Goldman Sachs: Brazil is likely to become the world s fifth-largest economy, overtaking Britain and France - By 2025, São Paulo will be its fifth-wealthiest city ( The Economist Magazine) - Brazil has been an important member of the BRICS

9 GDP GROWTH 6 % 5,71 5, ,20 4,31 3,70 4,80 3,38 3 2,66 3,20 2 2,15 1 1,31 1,15 0 0,04 0,

10 BRAZILIAN RISK Jan / 2001 Mai Set Jan / 2002 Mai Set Jan / 2003 Mai Set Jan / 2004 Mai Set Jan / 2005 Mai Set Jan / 2006 Mai Set Jan / 2007 Mai Set Jan / 2008 Basis Points

11 2. Characteristics of Infrastructure Projects in Brazil (Project Finance and PPP s)

12 - 70 airports (over 75 million passengers per year) - 54 ports with a capacity of over 500 million ton/year km of railways (11th of the world) 1.6 million km of highways (3rd of the world, but only 12% is covered in asphalt) - Investments by 2020: $ 16.5 billion in highways, $ 3.9 billion in railways and $ 1.3 billion in ports - Opportunities due to the World Cup (2014) and the Olympic Games (2016)

13 -Developing countries should invest around 25% of their GDP on infrastructure projects, however, Brazil uses only 7% - Brazil s President Dilma Rousseff plans to invest more than U$ 25 billion from the Federal Government in infrastructure projects for the next World Cup in According experts, the amount could reach U$ 200 billion in infrastructure projects. - Brazil s investment level has been increased up towards 20% in recent years, and the estimative is great for the next ones, considering the opportunities with the 2014 World Cup and 2016 Olympic Games.

14 3. Pre-Salt and the PAC

15 - If the oil reservoirs in the pre-salt layer (Santos basin) of Brazil are confirmed, the country will become one of the largest oil producers in the world - Brazil intends to explore these reserves on a large scale from 2016 onwards - Brazil is expected to jump from 24 th place to 8 th place on the list of countries with the largest reserves of oil and gas in the world (next to Venezuela and Nigeria)

16 4. The Energy Matrix and the Electric Sector

17 Source: EPE, MME Energy Matrix in 2010 and 2011

18 Source: EPE, ONS, ANEEL Planned Expansion of Energy Supply

19 Source: EPE, PDE 2019 Hydroelectric Expansion between Addition of Installed Power

20 Source: EPE, PDE 2019 Projects by Region ( )

21 Source: EPE, PDE 2019 Projects by Region ( )

22 Source: MME Electric Energy Supply 2009

23 Source: EPE, PDE 2019 Development of the Installed Capacity in the Interconnected System (SIN)

24 Top Ten Producers of Electric Energy in the World

25 Distribution of Electrical Energy Consumed by the Population within the Top Ten Producers Source: EIA, 2006

26 Source: EIA, 2006 Brazil is the Second Largest Producer of Electricity from Hydropower in the World

27 Source: EIA, 2006 Brazil is the Third in Installed Capacity in the World

28 5. The Role played by Ethanol

29 Projection of the Total Demand for Ethanol ( )

30 Profile of the Vehicle Fleet by Type of Fuel (light vehicles)

31 Projection of Ethanol Exports ( )

32 Source: EIA, 2006 Thank you very much for your attention.