Category outlook Vegetable oils

Transcription

1 Category outlook Vegetable oils September 2014 Sample extract of full report

2 Contents (of full purchased report) 1. Market background 2. Executive overview 2.1. Market status 2.2. Current market drivers 2.3. Outlook 3. Price movements 4. Supply and demand 4.1.Palm oil Indonesia Malaysia 4.2. Soyabean oil Brazil Argentina US 4.3. Rapeseed oil EU Canada 4.4. Sunflower oil 5. Market outlook 5.1. Palm oil Ukraine and Russia EU 5.2. Soyabean oil 5.3. Rapeseed oil 5.4. Sunflower oil 6. Other vegetable oils Appendix: Additional graphs Currency Premium of soyabean oil prices over palm oil Premium of sunflower oil prices over rapeseed oil 2

3 1. Market background The majority of oilseeds are crushed to obtain vegetable oil and oilmeal. The yield of oil and meal obtained varies between oilseeds. Table 1. Oil and meal yields of major oilseeds Oilseeds Crush volume (m tonnes) Oil yield (%) Meal yield (%) Soyabeans Rapeseed Sunflowerseed Market structure: Palm oil is the most produced vegetable oil worldwide, followed by soyabean oil, rapeseed oil (also known as canola oil in the US, Canada and Australia) and sunflower oil. Production & trade 1 : Palm oil Average palm oil production is 52.2m tonnes. Indonesia is the world s largest producer of palm oil (26.1m tonnes), followed by Malaysia (18.3m tonnes). Both countries export equal amounts of palm oil, accounting for around 90% of world shipments. Soyabeans and oil Average soyabean oil production is around 42m tonnes. Due to high demand for soyabean oil in China, the country accounts for two thirds of the world s soyabean imports and, as such, is the world s largest producer of soyabean oil (26% of world production). Other major producers include the US (21%), Brazil (17%) and Argentina (16%). Argentina is by far the top exporter of soyabean oil, accounting for approximately half of all world exports, with Brazil (20%) and the US (13%) also playing a large role. The largest producers of soyabeans are the US (14.7m tonnes), Brazil (11.8m tonnes), Argentina (7.1m tonnes) and China (2.5m tonnes). 1 All production and exports data are based on 5-year average for the latest available data. 3

4 Rapeseed and oil Average rapeseed oil production is around 24.2m tonnes. The main producers of rapeseed oil are the EU (9.7m tonnes), China (4.8m tonnes) and Canada (2.7m tonnes). Within the EU, the main producers of both seed and oil are Germany, France, Poland and the UK. Canada is by far the top exporter of rapeseed oil, accounting for two-thirds of all world exports. Sunflowerseed and oil Sunflower oil production is approximately 13.4m tonnes. The main producers of oil are Ukraine (3.2m tonnes), Russia (2.8m tonnes), the EU (2.7m tonnes) and Argentina (1.5m tonnes). Ukraine and Argentina are the world s main exporters of sunflower oil, accounting for approximately 50% and 18% of global trade respectively. The main EU producers of sunflowerseed are France, Romania and Hungary. Spain imports a large volume of seed and consequently is the EU s second largest producer of sunflower oil after France. Key seasons: Palm oil is derived from the pulp of palm fruits, which can be can be harvested from oil palms yearround. However, production in South East Asia peaks between July and October. Palm oil Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Southeast Asia Key: Peak production Soyabeans, rapeseed and sunflower oil are all extracted from the oily seed of crops which are typically planted and harvested once (or sometimes twice) a year. Soyabeans Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec US Brazil Argentina Rapeseed Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec EU Canada (spring canola) Canada (winter canola) China Sunflower seed Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ukraine Russia EU Argentina Key: Planting Harvesting 4

5 Key market drivers: Weather: For oil palms, a lack of adequate sunshine or rainfall will reduce the oil content of the palm fruit. For oilseed crops, late season frosts and dry conditions shortly before harvesting can cause oil yields to diminish. Sunflowers are more weather tolerant than many other oilseed crops, but are still affected by extreme heat and dryness. Substitution: Most vegetable oil prices tend to follow the same trend, as food manufacturers often have the option of switching to alternative vegetable oils in order to reduce costs. Biofuel demand: Vegetable oils also track the price of crude oil since they can be used as a feedstock for biodiesel. Animal feed demand: An increase in global livestock numbers can spark a higher demand for high protein oilmeals (the part of the oilseed that remains after oil is extracted) from the feed sector. This can encourage a rise in oilseed production and crushing, leading to increased production of vegetable oil as a by-product. 5

6 2. Executive overview 2.1. Market status The average prices for the period Apr 14-Sep 14 fell in Rotterdam for all major vegetable oils compared to the previous six month period. With the exception of palm oil, prices for these oils were also down sharply compared to the previous year. Palm oil prices rose slightly compared to the same period one year ago Current market drivers Palm oil: Production is expected to reach another record in 2014/15. Consumption in the major producing countries is expected to remain firm, supported by governmental initiatives that promote biodiesel production. Soyabean oil: If current forecast is realised, 2014/15 will become the third consecutive season of record increase in soyabean production. This exceptionally high increase in soyabean supply will continue to be a predominant factor in the vegetable oil market over the next six months. Production is expected to reach a record level in all major producing countries, including Brazil, Argentina and the US. Rapeseed oil: Production forecasts have been cut for both rapeseed and sunflowerseed oils. Production for rapeseed is expected to fall slightly due to lower production in Canada, where late plantings and cold and wet conditions this summer have slowed crop development. Sunflower oil: The forecast for sunflowerseed was cut following hotter and drier than usual weather in July and August adversely affected the late stages of plant development in parts of Ukraine and Russia Outlook Prices for all major vegetable oils are expected to fall in the next few months, driven down by exceptionally good supply of soyabean and palm oil. Usage of soyabean and palm oil for biodiesel will continue to rise in major producing countries, driven by rising biofuels mandates. However, this downward pressure will be more than offset by record global supply. Price increases for rapeseed and sunflower oils will be limited by lower production for these oils. 6

7 5. Market outlook 5.1Palm oil Prices are expected to fall over the next six months as the growth in production and ending stocks will outpace growth in demand. An expected increase in the biodiesel mandate in Malaysia in 2014 and 2015 will limit price increases. Factors Production and stocks are expected to increase Increased demand from biodiesel industry in producing countries Price effect POTENTIAL AVERAGE PRICE MOVEMENT 2 : DOWN 3-6% 5.2 Soyabean oil Prices are likely to decline further over the next six months as the market will be digesting the third consecutive season of large increases in global supply. Growing domestic usage, driven by higher biodiesel demand in major producing countries, may slightly limit soyabean oil exports and prices. Factors Third consecutive season of increased global supply Increased demand from biodiesel industry in producing countries POTENTIAL AVERAGE PRICE MOVEMENT 3 : DOWN 6-9% Price effect 2 Potential movement of average price of palm oil in Rotterdam for the period: Oct 14 - Mar 15 against Apr 14 Sep Potential movement of average price of soyabean oil in Rotterdam for the period: Oct 14 - Mar 15 against Apr 14 - Sep 14. 7

8 5.3 Rapeseed oil Prices are likely to fall, as despite some tightening in production and ending stocks, production will remain at good levels by historical standards. Prices will be also driven down by exceptionally good supply of soyabean and palm oil. Factors Exceptionally good supply of soyabean and palm oil Tightening production and ending stocks Price effect POTENTIAL AVERAGE PRICE MOVEMENT 4 : DOWN 3-6% 5.4 Sunflower oil Prices will decline slightly as reduced production in Ukraine and Russia, due to unfavourable weather in summer, will be more than offset by downward pressure from exceptionally good supply of soyabean and palm oil. Factors Exceptionally good supply of soyabean and palm oil Falling production and ending stocks Price effect POTENTIAL AVERAGE PRICE MOVEMENT 5 : DOWN 0-3% 4 Potential movement of average price of rapeseed oil in Rotterdam for the period: Oct 14 - Mar 15 against Apr 14 Sep Potential movement of average price of sunflower oil in Rotterdam for the period: Oct 14 - Mar 15 against Apr 14 - Sep 14. 8

9 6 Other vegetable oils Olive oil Coconut oil Palm kernel oil Market status: Prices rose, driven by concerns over dry conditions in Spain, the world s largest exporter. Market drivers: Prices are expected to ease as, although current estimates put the Spanish oil production down y-o-y, global production is still forecast to rise in 2014/15. Supply/demand: Global production is forecast to rise 5% to 3.2m tonnes in 2014/15. Consumption is set to rise 7% to 3.1m tonnes. Exports are expected to rise by 2% to 0.8m tonnes. Ending stocks are forecast up 10% at 0.2m tonnes. Price 6 : USD 2,985/tonne Price movement 7 : DOWN 3-6% Market status: Price averages rose slightly after typhoons in the Philippines reduced supply in November 2013 and again in July 2014, although prices fell downwards in recent months as high prices reduced demand. Market drivers: Prices are expected to fall slightly, as good supply of other, more competitively priced vegetable oils, will reduce demand. Supply/demand: World production of coconut oil is expected to fall slightly in 2014/15 to 3.4m tonnes, down 1% y-o-y. Consumption is forecast down 2% to 3.4m tonnes. Ending stocks are expected to decline 14% to 0.3m tonnes. Price: USD 1,293/tonne Price movement: DOWN 0-3% Market status: Price averages fell as high prices and good supply of competitive oils reduced demand. Market drivers: Prices are expected to fall, as good supply of other more competitively priced vegetable oils will continue to reduce demand. Supply/demand: World production of palm kernel oil is forecast to rise 5% to 7.3m tonnes in 2014/14. Consumption is expected to rise 6% to 6.8m tonnes. Ending stocks are forecast down 3% to 0.8m tonnes. Price: EUR 1,126/tonne Price movement: DOWN 3-6% 6 All prices are average prices for the six months covering the period: Apr 14 - Sep Potential movement of average price for the period: Oct 14 - Mar 15 against Apr 14 - Sep 15. 9

10 Company profile Mintec Limited Mintec is the principal independent source of global pricing information for commodities and raw materials. Mintec has a suite of unique procurement tools and training courses all designed to assist supply chain professionals in their daily tasks of reporting, analysing and interpreting market information. Mintec helps sales and purchasing professionals to support their commodity decisions, by improving efficiency, minimising commodity risk and ultimately gaining a commercial advantage. Mintec's core product is Datagain, a sophisticated tool which offers up-to-date and reliable pricing data across a comprehensive range of global commodities and local markets, and is available in a range of formats from online delivery to site installations. Mintec Ltd 9 The Courtyard, Glory Park Wooburn Green High Wycombe Buckinghamshire HP10 0DG United Kingdom Tel: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0) sales@mintec.ltd.uk Web: 10