CropCast Daily Agri-Highlights Don Keeney Wednesday, June 22, 2016

Transcription

1 VHI Image Date: Jun 17, 2016 USA Corn Soybeans Vegetative Health Index Map and Crop Condition Tendency EUROPE Rapeseed BLACK SEA INDIA Soybeans Groundnuts CHINA Corn Soybeans ARGENTINA Corn Soybeans BRAZIL Safrinha Corn Soybeans AUSTRALIA Vegetative Health Index (VHI) Legend Stressed Healthy Desert Snow/Ice or Missing Data Colored boxes within the map above indicate whether crop conditions will be declining or improving for each crop in each major global growing region, incorporating current conditions and the latest 10 day CropCAST forecast. Declining Neutral Improving The Midwest corn/soybean/wheat belt forecast is unchanged today. Showers favored northern MO, and northern and eastern IA yesterday. Amounts were 0.25 to 1.5, locally 3, with 10% coverage of the corn and soybeans, and less than 10% of the wheat. Showers should favor north central and eastern areas today, then linger in eastern areas Thursday. A few showers should favor far southwestern areas on Friday, then build across west central areas Saturday, and spread into central areas Sunday. Amounts will be 0.25 to 1.5, with 85% coverage of corn, soybeans, and wheat (+5% from yesterday). Showers in eastern areas should improve moisture for corn and soybeans, but rain amounts will be too light in southwestern areas. The 6-10 day outlook is wetter in southwestern areas. The day outlook is unchanged. The Plains wheat belt forecast is unchanged today. Dry weather prevailed yesterday. A few showers should favor central areas Thursday, and north central areas Sunday, including eastern CO, KS, and NE. Amounts will be 0.25 or less, with 50% coverage (+25% from yesterday). Rains in central areas later this week and over the weekend should result in only minor harvest delays for winter wheat. The 6-10 day outlook is wetter in central areas. The day outlook is wetter in far southeastern areas. The China corn/soybean belt forecast is unchanged today. Showers favored eastern North China Plain, northeastern Yangtze Valley, and northern and southwestern Northeast China yesterday. Amounts were 0.25 to 1.5, locally 3, with 30% coverage of corn/soybeans. Rains will favor Yangtze Valley, southern and eastern North China Plain, and central and northeastern Northeast China through Sunday. Amounts will be 0.25 to 1.5, locally 4, with 85% coverage of corn/soybeans (+5% from yesterday). Additional rains in northeastern North China Plain and western Yangtze Valley should further improve moisture for corn and soybeans. The 6-10 day outlook is wetter in northern North China Plain. Europe: Australia: Black Sea: Other Major Crop Areas Forecast is unchanged today; wetness should ease in France and western Germany next week. Forecast is unchanged today; showers are maintaining favorable moisture for winter wheat. Forecast is unchanged today; dry and very warm conditions in central Russia and Ukraine will reduced moisture for wheat.

2 6-10 Day Forecast: Mon Jun 27-Fri Jul 1 MDA 6-10 Day Temperature Forecast Wetter southwestern Midwest, Delta MDA Previous Forecast Previous Forecast Model Preference: ECM Ensemble CHANGES: The precipitation outlook is slightly wetter in the southwestern Midwest, central Plains, and Delta. Temperatures are cooler in the southern Midwest and Delta. CROP IMPACT: Showers in the far southern Midwest and Delta would improve moisture for corn and soybeans, while dryness would build further in the central and northwestern Midwest. Showers in the central Plains would slow wheat harvesting. RISKS: There is a wetter risk in the Delta and southwestern Midwest. CONFIDENCE: Confidence in the temperature outlook is above normal. Confidence in the precipitation outlook is near normal. MODEL PREFERENCE: ECM ensemble Day Forecast: Sat Jul 2-Wed Jul 6 MDA Day Temperature Forecast Wetter southern Delta MDA Day Precipitation Forecast Previous Forecast Previous Forecast Model Preference: ECM Ensemble CHANGES: The precipitation outlook is wetter in the southern Delta and far southeastern Plains. Temperatures are unchanged. CROP IMPACT: Continued drier weather in the Midwest will allow moisture shortages and stress on corn and soybeans to increase further. Winter wheat harvesting should continue to progress well in the central Plains. Showers in the southern Delta should improve moisture slightly for corn and soybeans. RISKS: There is a wetter risk in the southeastern Midwest and west central Plains. CONFIDENCE: Confidence in the temperature outlook is above normal. Confidence in the precipitation outlook is near normal. MODEL PREFERENCE: ECM ensemble

3 United States The Midwest corn/soybean/wheat belt is unchanged today. PAST 24 HOURS: Showers favored northern Missouri, and northern and eastern Iowa yesterday. 5 DAY FORECAST: Showers should favor north central and eastern areas today, then linger in eastern areas Thursday. A few showers should favor far southwestern areas on Friday, then build across west central areas Saturday, and spread into central areas Sunday. CROP IMPACT: Showers through the weekend should improve moisture a bit in north central and eastern areas, including northern Illinois, northern Indiana and Ohio. However, the rains are not expected to completely end moisture deficits in eastern areas. Also, rain amounts in southwestern areas will be rather light, and this combined with very warm temperatures will reduce moisture and increase stress on corn and soybeans. The Delta corn/soybean/wheat belt is unchanged today. PAST 24 HOURS: Dry weather prevailed yesterday. 5 DAY FORECAST: A few showers should favor far northern areas Friday and Saturday. Dry weather should prevail otherwise through Sunday. CROP IMPACT: Light showers across northern areas late week are not expected to significantly improve moisture supplies, which will leave some moisture deficits in place across eastern areas and will likely stress corn and soybeans. The Northern Plains wheat belt is unchanged today. The Plains wheat belt is drier Saturday. PAST 24 HOURS: A few showers favored central North Dakota yesterday. 5 DAY FORECAST: Showers should favor the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota today, then return to northern areas Friday and Saturday. Dry weather should return Sunday. CROP IMPACT: Additional rains across northern areas Friday and Saturday will maintain favorable moisture for spring wheat growth. However, moisture will continue to decline further in South Dakota. PAST 24 HOURS: Dry weather prevailed yesterday. 5 DAY FORECAST: A few showers should favor central areas Thursday, and north central areas Sunday, including eastern Colorado, Kansas, and Nebraska. CROP IMPACT: Light showers in central and northern areas through the weekend should result in only minor delays to winter wheat drydown and early harvesting. Harvesting should progress well in southern areas. United States % Precipitation Coverage Past 24 Hour Midwest Midwest Midwest Plains Delta Delta Delta N. Plains W. Corn Soybeans W. Corn Soybeans S. > 6 mm (0.25") 4% 10% 10% 0% 0% 1% 0% 10% > 25 mm (1.0") 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Corn Areas Soybean Areas W. Areas United States % Precipitation Coverage 5 Day Forecast Midwest Midwest Midwest Plains Delta Delta Delta N. Plains W. Corn Soybeans W. Corn Soybeans S. > 6 mm (0.25") 101% 90% 94% 52% 44% 54% 44% 79% > 25 mm (1.0") 38% 33% 32% 0% 0% 0% 0% 5%

4 Past 24 Hour Precipitation Totals (inches) Previous Forecast 24 Hour Precipitation MDA Precipitation Forecast Wednesday, June 22, 2016 Thursday, June 23, 2016 Friday, June 24, 2016 Saturday, June 25, 2016 Sunday, June 26, Day Total

5 Maximum Temperature Past 24 Hours Previous Forecast 24 Hour Maximum Temperature MDA Maximum Temperature Forecast Wednesday, June 22, 2016 Thursday, June 23, 2016 Friday, June 24, 2016 Saturday, June 25, 2016 Sunday, June 26, Day Total

6 Argentina The Argentina corn/soybean belt forecast is unchanged today. Argentina % Precipitation Coverage Argentina % Precipitation Coverage Past 24 Hours W. Corn Soybeans 5 Day Forecast W. Corn Soybeans > 6 mm (0.25") 0% 0% 0% > 6 mm (0.25") 46% 53% 64% > 25 mm (1.0") 0% 0% 0% > 25 mm (1.0") 23% 29% 42% Argentina Crop Areas PAST 24 HOURS: Dry weather prevailed yesterday. 5 DAY FORECAST: Dry weather should prevail through Friday. A few showers should return to northern Cordoba, northern Santa Fe, and northern Entre Rios Saturday and Sunday DAY: The 6-10 day outlook is unchanged. CROP IMPACT: Continued drier weather across northeastern areas this week will maintain stress on wheat early growth. However, some slight improvement will be possible there this weekend and next week. RISKS: There is a wetter risk in southern Santa Fe and Buenos Aires through Sunday. Areas Corn Areas Soybean Areas Brazil The Brazil corn/soybean belt forecast is unchanged today. Brazil % Precipitation Coverage Brazil % Precipitation Coverage Past 24 Hours W. Corn Soybeans 5 Day Forecast W. Corn Soybeans > 6 mm (0.25") 8% 7% 5% > 6 mm (0.25") 43% 23% 20% > 25 mm (1.0") 0% 0% 0% > 25 mm (1.0") 10% 2% 3% Brazil Crop Areas PAST 24 HOURS: A few showers favored Parana yesterday. 5 DAY FORECAST: A few showers should favor eastern Parana, southeastern Sao Paulo, and southern Rio Grande do Sul through Sunday DAY: The 6-10 day outlook is wetter in far southern areas. CROP IMPACT: Additional scattered showers across south central areas are resulting in only minor delays to remaining soybean harvesting. Continued drier weather in northern areas will favor corn drydown. RISKS: There is a wetter risk in northern Sao Paulo through Sunday. Areas Corn Areas Soybean Areas

7 Europe The Europe wheat/rapeseed belt forecast is unchanged today. Europe % Precipitation Coverage Europe % Precipitation Coverage Past 24 Hours W. Corn Rapeseed 5 Day Forecast W. Corn Rapeseed > 6 mm (0.25") 1% 0% 1% > 6 mm (0.25") 51% 54% 80% > 25 mm (1.0") 0% 0% 0% > 25 mm (1.0") 5% 3% 8% Areas Corn Areas Europe Crop Areas PAST 24 HOURS: Mostly dry weather prevailed yesterday. 5 DAY FORECAST: Rains will favor Germany, Scandinavia, Poland, Czech Republic, and southern Italy through Sunday DAY: The 6-10 day outlook is unchanged. CROP IMPACT: Showers in northern Germany, central Poland, Scandinavia, and Czech Republic through the weekend will improve moisture a bit. However, dryness will continue in eastern Poland, and central and southern Spain. Drier weather this weekend and next week in northeast France and southern Germany will allow wetness to ease a bit. Temperatures should remain quite warm through the weekend, but should cool slightly next week. RISKS: There is a drier risk in eastern Poland through Sunday. Black Sea Region Black Sea % Precipitation Coverage Past 24 Hours W. S. Corn Sunflower > 6 mm (0.25") 6% 4% 0% 2% > 25 mm (1.0") 1% 0% 0% 0% Black Sea Crop Areas Black Sea % Precipitation Coverage 5 Day Forecast W. S. Corn Sunflower > 6 mm (0.25") 16% 73% 5% 15% > 25 mm (1.0") 1% 4% 0% 0% The Black Sea wheat belt forecast is unchanged today. PAST 24 HOURS: Showers favored eastern Belarus, far northwestern Ukraine, northwestern Central Region, and northeastern Volga Valley yesterday. 5 DAY FORECAST: Showers will favor western Ukraine, northern Volga Valley, northeastern Kazakhstan, and Western Siberia through Sunday DAY: The 6-10 day outlook is slightly wetter in central Volga Valley and northwestern Kazakhstan. CROP IMPACT: Showers should improve moisture a bit in western Ukraine, but drier and warm conditions across eastern Ukraine, Belarus, Central Region, North Caucasus, and far western Kazakhstan will allow moisture to decline rapidly, and some stress will build on crops. RISKS: There is a wetter risk in central Ukraine through Saturday. Areas

8 China China % Precipitation Coverage Past 24 Hours W. Corn Rapeseed Soybeans > 6 mm (0.25") 31% 25% 23% 37% > 25 mm (1.0") 16% 10% 10% 13% China Crop Areas Areas Corn Areas Soybean Areas China % Precipitation Coverage 5 Day Forecast W. Corn Rapeseed Soybeans > 6 mm (0.25") 88% 82% 88% 88% > 25 mm (1.0") 71% 43% 71% 54% The China corn/soybean belt forecast is unchanged today. PAST 24 HOURS: Showers favored eastern North China Plain, northeastern Yangtze Valley, and northern and southwestern Northeast China yesterday. 5 DAY FORECAST: Rains will favor Yangtze Valley, southern and eastern North China Plain, and central and northeastern Northeast China through Sunday DAY: The 6-10 day outlook is wetter in northern North China Plain. CROP IMPACT: Showers improved moisture a bit in northeastern North China Plain and southwestern Northeast China yesterday, and additional improvements are expected there and in western Yangtze Valley through the weekend. However, some wetness will build in central Yangtze Valley, southeastern North China Plain, and northern Northeast China as rains build further. RISKS: There is a wetter risk in southwestern Northeast China through Sunday. Southeast Asia SE Asia % Precipitation Coverage Past 24 Hours Palm > 6 mm (0.25") 21% > 25 mm (1.0") 2% Southeast Asia Crop Areas Palm Areas SE Asia % Precipitation Coverage 5 Day Forecast Palm > 6 mm (0.25") 100% > 25 mm (1.0") 34% The Southeast Asia palm oil belt forecast is unchanged today. PAST 24 HOURS: Showers favored northern Sumatra and central East Malaysia yesterday. 5 DAY FORECAST: Rains will favor southern Sumatra, eastern Malay Peninsula, northern East Malaysia, and northern Kalimantan through Sunday DAY: The 6-10 day outlook is unchanged. CROP IMPACT: Spotty dryness continues in south central Sumatra and central East Malaysia. Some slight improvements will be possible in southern Sumatra through the weekend, but dryness in central East Malaysia will likely continue. Palm conditions should remain favorable elsewhere. RISKS: There is a drier risk in eastern Malay Peninsula and southern Sumatra through Sunday. CONFIDENCE: Slightly below normal.

9 Australia The Australia wheat belt forecast is unchanged today. Australia % Precipitation Coverage Australia % Precipitation Coverage Past 24 Hours W. Barley Sorghum 5 Day Forecast W. Barley Sorghum > 6 mm (0.25") 16% 16% 10% > 6 mm (0.25") 61% 61% 78% > 25 mm (1.0") 0% 0% 0% > 25 mm (1.0") 1% 0% 0% Australia Crop Areas PAST 24 HOURS: Showers favored South Australia, Victoria, and New south Wales yesterday. 5 DAY FORECAST: Showers should favor South Australia, Victoria, New South Wales, and southern Queensland through Sunday DAY: The 6-10 day outlook is wetter in southeastern New South Wales and Victoria. CROP IMPACT: Showers in South Australia, Victoria, New South Wales, and southern Queensland will maintain favorable moisture for winter wheat. RISKS: There is a wetter risk in northern New South Wales in the 6-10 day period. Areas India The India soybean/groundnut belt forecast is unchanged today. India % Precipitation Coverage Past 24 Hours W. Soybeans Groundnuts > 6 mm (0.25") 14% 20% 7% > 25 mm (1.0") 4% 15% 7% India Crop Areas Soy Areas India % Precipitation Coverage 5 Day Forecast W. Soybeans Groundnuts > 6 mm (0.25") 65% 96% 101% > 25 mm (1.0") 40% 54% 83% PAST 24 HOURS: Showers favored southeastern Gujarat, northwestern Maharashtra, and west central Andhra Pradesh yesterday. 5 DAY FORECAST: Rains will favor Gujarat, eastern Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Karnataka, northern Tamil Nadu, and Andhra Pradesh through Sunday DAY: The 6-10 day outlook is unchanged. CROP IMPACT: Rains should remain active across central areas through next week, which will further improve moisture for groundnut and soybean germination and early growth. Rains should also begin to improve moisture in west central areas. RISKS: There is a drier risk in Karnataka through Sunday. Groundnut Areas

10 Canadian Prairies Canada % Precipitation Coverage Past 24 Hour S. > 6 mm (0.25") 11% > 25 mm (1.0") 2% Canadian Prairies Crop Areas and Canola Areas Canada % Precipitation Coverage 5 Day Forecast S. > 6 mm (0.25") 95% > 25 mm (1.0") 49% The Canadian Prairies wheat/canola belt forecast is unchanged today. PAST 24 HOURS: Showers favored south central Alberta and southwestern Saskatchewan yesterday. 5 DAY FORECAST: Showers should favor northwestern Alberta, southeastern Saskatchewan, and southern Manitoba today, then linger in northwestern Alberta on Thursday. Showers should spread across much of the region Friday and Saturday, and linger in Manitoba on Sunday DAY: The 6-10 day outlook is drier in Manitoba. CROP IMPACT: Spotty dryness continues in central Manitoba, east central Saskatchewan, and southern Alberta. Some improvements are still expected in the drier areas through the weekend which will favor spring wheat and canola. RISKS: There is a wetter risk in central Alberta and northern Manitoba in the 6-10 day period.