Great Basin Weather and Climate: Winter Recap, Current Status, Summer Prospects
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1 Great Basin Weather and Climate: Winter Recap, Current Status, Summer Prospects Kelly T. Redmond Western Regional Climate Center Desert Research Institute Reno Nevada Great Basin Climate Forum Northern Nevada Science Center Desert Research Institute 10 April 2014
2
3 What s the Great Basin?? Hydrological & Biological Definitions USFS
4 Motivation - 1 / 2 (for web reference) Now that winter is fading, how have weather/climate events over the past cool season (or the past year, or however far back you want to go), had an effect on where things now stand? What are the conditions of the resource you deal with? Were there particular events or extended episodes that have exerted an influence, or will be expected to as we head through summer into autumn? What are your concerns, pertaining to climate, as we head into the coming summer and beyond? How adequately can you evaluate your current situation(s)? What information is missing? Are there steps that could be taken to improve the amount, or flow, of data and information? Are there routine monitoring products that would improve your ability to do your job? If information does exist, what would make it more useful, and easier to find, to digest, or to summarize?
5 Motivation - 2 / 2 (for web reference) What would make it easier to form linkages between weather and climate data and your own information? Conversely, for others who might be interested in what you monitor or do, how can your information be better disseminated? This meeting is not about climate change, but rather climate in its generality -- the everyday monitoring of climate, its quasi-operational components, and its practical implications. However, if slowly changing conditions are a factor, they are certainly suitable topics. The Great Basin Climate Forum is being tried as an experiment, and a learning vehicle for all concerned.
6 Many products and tools reachable at or through WRCC web pages Another set under way as part of Southwest Climate Science Center We d like your help in making this information more accessible, useful, and usable.
7 Great Basin Weather and Climate Dashboard In support of USDA Farm Services Agency and other Drought Activities gbdash.dri.edu
8 Also Department of Interior Southwest Climate Science Center Climate Monitoring Dashboard A quick glance of recent, current, future conditions, with access to more detail. For Southwest (left) Rest of USA (right)
9 Since we last met...
10 Percent of Average Precipitation Oct 2013 Nov 2013 Dec 2013 Jan 2014 Feb 2014 Mar 2014
11 Mean Temperature Departure from Normal Oct 2013 Nov 2013 Dec 2013 Jan 2014 Feb 2014 Mar 2014
12
13 53 Western United States (11 states) Annual Jan-Dec Temperature Red: Individual Years. Blue: 11-year running mean Units: Deg F. Data from NOAA Cooperative Network thru Jan Annual Mean Temperature ( F ) Year Western Regional Climate Center
14 United States Annual Temperature Departure from Mean NOAA Divisional Data, Western Regional Climate Center, Plotted by ESRL PSD
15 thru Feb United States Annual Temperature Departure from Mean NOAA Divisional Data, Western Regional Climate Center, Plotted by ESRL PSD
16 Apr Apr 1-8 Precipitation Percent Temperature Departure (F)
17 Oct 1 - Apr 8 Water Year to Date Oct 1 - Apr 8 Precipitation Percent Temperature Departure (F)
18 Water Year Oct 2010 Thru 30 Sep 2011
19 Water Year Oct 2011 Thru 30 Sep 2012
20 Water Year Oct 2012 Thru 30 Sep 2013
21 Water Year to date 01 Oct 2013 Thru 08 Apr 2014
22
23 Nevada Statewide Temperature Annual Water Year Oct-Sep thru
24 Nevada Statewide Temperature Water Year to Date Oct-Feb thru
25 Nevada Statewide Precipitation Water Year Oct-Sep thru Nevada Climate Tracker
26 Nevada Statewide Precipitation Water Year to Date Oct-Feb thru Nevada Climate Tracker
27 Sierra Nevada Precipitation Water Year Oct-Sep thru California Climate Tracker
28 Sierra Nevada Precipitation Calendar Year to Date Jan-Dec 1895 thru 2013 California Climate Tracker
29 Sierra Nevada Precipitation Water Year to Date Oct-Mar thru California Climate Tracker
30 Calendar Year Precipitation Rank Jan-Dec Thru 2014 Lowest 10 % Record Driest
31 Oct-Mar Precipitation Rank Thru Lowest 10 % Record Driest
32 Overall patterns matter. But so does the way in which climate unfolds through day by day A few example sources. Also, new tools coming on WRCC and CSC pages.
33 365 Day Temperature Departures thru 2014 Apr 8
34 365 Day Temperature Departures thru 2014 Apr 8
35 365 Day Temperature Departures thru 2014 Apr 8
36 365 Day precipitation Departures thru 2014 Apr 8
37 365 Day precipitation Departures thru 2014 Apr 8
38 365 Day precipitation Departures thru 2014 Apr 8
39 Reno Airport NWS Reno
40 Elko Airport NWS Elko
41 Ely Airport NWS Elko
42 Tonopah Airport NWS Elko
43 Select: Lamoille area, Monthly values, Temperature 0 C, 9-year running mean. Western Regional Climate Center
44 Monthly Freezing Level Near Ruby Mountains, Nevada 1948 thru 2011 or 2012 Apr 2014 (thru 6) May 2013 Jun 2013 Jul 2013 Aug 2013 Sep 2013 Oct 2013 Nov 2013 Dec 2013 Jan 2014 Feb 2014 Mar 2014
45 California Department of Water Resources
46 California Department of Water Resources
47 Northern Sierra Winter Season Snow Water Content wettest Average Central Sierra driest Southern Sierra Cal DWR
48 Central Sierra Snow Lab Winter Comparisons. NRCS Snotel Station Oct-Sep Oct-Sep Oct-Sep Oct-Apr9
49 Snow Water Content Percent of Average 2014 Apr 9
50 Water Year Precipitation Since 1 October 2013 Percent of Average 2014 Apr 9
51 NWS Precipitation Estimate for March 2014 Courtesy Mark Faucette, Reno NWS
52 March 2014 Precipitation Percent of Normal WRCC West-Wide Drought Tracker March 2014 Precipitation Percentile
53 Oct-Mar Precipitation Percent of Normal WRCC West-Wide Drought Tracker Oct-Mar Precipitation Percentile
54 Courtesy Mark Faucette, Reno NWS
55
56 NWS Seasonal Streamflow Volume Forecast Percent of Normal Updated 2014 April 9
57 What about the Colorado River?
58 Lake Mead, October 2007 Photo by Ken Dewey
59 Lake Powell Storage Through Apr 8, 2014 Currently 39 % full (capacity MAF) Minimum: 33 % full on April 8, 2005
60 Lake Powell Elevation Through May 1, 2013 x 1yr Water level on May 1, 2013 was ft, -126 ft below full. Minimum level on April 8, 2005 was 3555 ft, -145 ft below full. Source:
61 2014 From: Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
62 Ocean Departures from Average Temperature ( C ) 30 Mar - 5 Apr 2014
63 Recent Evolution of Equatorial Pacific SST Departures Updated through 2014 Mar 30 - Apr 5 Climate Prediction Center
64 Redmond & Koch, 1991, updated. Washington Redmond & Koch, 1991, updated. ENSO Arizona Central Sierra
65
66 Temperature & Precipitation Official Outlooks One Month 2014 Three Month Apr Temp Apr Precip Apr-May-Jun T Apr-May-Jun P Orange / Red - Higher likelihood of drier than usual Green - Higher likelihood of wetter than usual NOAA Climate Prediction Center
67 Six experiments in near-term climate forecasting May-Jul Precipitation. NMME (National Multi-Model Ensemble). IMME (International Multi-Model Ensemble). Dynamical Models CFSv2: US Climate Forecasting System version 2 CMC1: Canadian Meteorological Center version 1 CMC2: Canadian Meteorological Center version 2 GFDL: US Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory NCAR: US National Center for Atmospheric Research NASA: US National Aeronautics and Space Administration NMME: National Multi- Model Ensemble IMME: International Multi-Model Ensemble 2014 Apr 9
68 Six experiments in near-term climate forecasting May-Jul Temperature. NMME (National Multi-Model Ensemble). IMME (International Multi-Model Ensemble). Dynamical Models CFSv2: US Climate Forecasting System version 2 CMC1: Canadian Meteorological Center version 1 CMC2: Canadian Meteorological Center version 2 GFDL: US Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory NCAR: US National Center for Atmospheric Research NASA: US National Aeronautics and Space Administration NMME: National Multi- Model Ensemble IMME: International Multi-Model Ensemble 2014 Apr 9
69 Great Basin Weather and Climate Dashboard In support of USDA Farm Services Agency and other Drought Activities gbdash.dri.edu
70
71
72 Snotel How to Improve Great Basin Climate Monitoring??? WeatherCoder III RAWS
73 Thank You! Mather RAWS Station Great Basin Nat Park
74 DISCARDS and EXTRAS and ELABORATIONS
75
76
77 Nevada Annual Precipitation Cycle
78 Oct-Mar Apr-May-June Fraction of Annual Total Precipitation, by Season July-Aug
79 Through September 2012 El Nino La Nina NOAA ESRL ( CDC ), Wolter and Timlin
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