Expériences nationales sur le développement de NAMAs et la définition. de l INDC

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1 Evènement parallèle «Expérience des pays francophones en matière de montage de NAMAs et des INDCs» CdP20, Lima, Pérou, 6 décembre 2014 Expériences nationales sur le développement de NAMAs et la définition S. Amous (Apex) R. Missaoui (Alcor) de l INDC

2 Content Tunisian circumstances Greenhouse Gas Inventory Tunisian GHG mitigation effort INDC Tunisian approach

3 GHG and NAMAS in Tunisia Rafik Missaoui (ALCOR) To be included in ongoing BUR1 - with support from UNDP (expected submission mid-december 2014)

4 Tunisian context Population millions in 2013 Area Coast Desert area 40% Climate Rainfall 162,155 Km² 1148 km Mediterranean in the North and Coast Semiarid in the inland and Saharan in the South North 800 mm, South 50 to 150 mm GDP 4329 $/capita in 2013 Net GHG emissions 3.2 tco 2 e/capita in 2010 UNFCC ratification 1993 KP ratification 2003 National Communication 1 st : Oct nd : Feb Climate Change National Strategy BUR1 Published in 2010 Under preparation

5 GHG emissions inventory 2010 (supported by GIZ) Total gross emissions in 2010: 47.7 MtCO 2 e

6 GHG emissions inventory 2010 Emissions VS Net-Emissions (Gg or kt) CO2 CH4 N2O HFCs TOTAL Gross Emissions (Gg) ,2 297,7 8,3 237,5 (*) Removals (Gg) ,9 0 0,0 0,0 Net Emissions (Gg) ,3 297,7 8,3 237,5 Gross Emissions (Gge- CO 2 ) Net Emissions (Gge- CO 2 ) , , ,0 237, , , , ,0 237, ,8 (*) Expressed in tco2e AFOLU: Balance Emissions/Removals Net Removals -2.4 MtCO2e

7 Analyse des sources clefs GHG emissions Secteur inventory 2010 kt GHG kt CO2e % Cumulative (%) 1 1.A.1.a - Main Activity Electricity and Heat ProductionCO , ,0 12,47 12, B.2 - Cropland CO , ,3 12,01 24, B.1 - Forest land CO , ,9 10,07 34,55 Key-sources 4 1.A.3.b - Road Transportation CO , ,4 9,71 44, A.2 - Manufacturing Industries and Construction CO , ,5 7,66 51, D.1 - Harvested Wood Products CO , ,9 5,98 57, A.1 - Cement production CO , ,6 5,98 63, B.3 - Grassland CO , ,4 4,68 68, A.1 - Livestock - Enteric Fermentation CH4 100, ,3 4,14 72, A.1.c - Manufacture of Solid Fuels and Other Energy Industries CO , ,4 3,11 75, A - Solid Waste Disposal CH4 73, ,6 3,02 78, A.4.b - Residential CO , ,4 2,82 81, B.2.b.i -Natural gas - Venting CH4 48, ,2 2,00 83, C.4 - Direct N2O Emissions from managed soils N2O 4, ,6 2,00 85, B.2.a.ii - Oil Flaring CO , ,5 1,66 87, A.3.e.i - Pipeline Transport CO2 862,6 862,6 1,42 88, A.4.c.ii - Off-road Vehicles and Other Machinery CO2 737,2 737,2 1,21 89, A.4.a - Ceramics CO2 697,3 697,3 1,14 91, A.4.a - Commercial/Institutional CO2 662,6 662,6 1,09 92, A.1.c - Manufacture of Solid Fuels and Other Energy Industries CH4 20,0 500,9 0,82 92, B.2.b.i -Natural gas - Venting CO2 498,6 498,6 0,82 93, D.1 - Domestic Wastewaster Treatment and Discharge CH4 19,1 476,4 0,78 94, C.5 - Indirect N2O Emissions from managed soils N2O 1,4 409,1 0,67 95,25

8 GHG emissions inventory Increase in GHG emissions (+3.2% per year over the period ) Decrease in the carbon intensity (-1.9% per year over the period )

9 Tunisian GHG mitigation effort: Developed NAMAs ANME/ UNDP Cement sector ANME/ GIZ Tunisian Solar Plan Waste water treatment ONAS / GIZ S.S. for SD & Environment ANME / GIZ EE & RE in Buildings Forestry City NAMA Ministry of Agriculture / GIZ Sfax City / ANME /GIZ (Ongoing)

10 Tunisian GHG mitigation effort: NAMA on EE & RE in buildings Objective: Scale up energy efficiency and renewable energy measures in the building sector Scope: EE&RE in existing building (PV, SWH, insulation) Components: Capacity building and technical assistance activities Sustainable financial mechanism including: commercial loans, public subsidy (ETF), international donor support Coordinating entity: National Agency for Energy Conservation Emission reduction (MtCO2e) : : 6.8 Incremental investment cost 680 M Incremental investment cost tco2e Supporting financing from donors 100 /tco2e 52 M NAMA supporting activities 4.7 M

11 Tunisian GHG mitigation effort: NAMA in cement sector Objective: Reducing GHG Emission Profiles in Cement sector in Tunisia Scope: EE&RE, Co-processing, Reduction of Clinker/Cement Ratio Components: Capacity building and technical assistance activities Result-based financial mechanism (Financial line, Investment Fund) Unlocking Regulatory Barriers to Wind Power, Co-processing and Cement market Segments Coordinating entity: National Agency for Energy Conservation Emission reduction (MtCO2e) Incremental investment cost 970 M Incremental Investment Cost per tco2e : : /tco2e NAMA supporting activities 8.5 M

12 Tunisian GHG mitigation effort: NAMA in wastewater sector Objective: Low-carbon technology deployment in the wastewater sector in Tunisia Scope: Aerobic wastewater digestion in open lagoons, sludge landfill gas capture, bio digesters, EE & RE Components: Capacity building and technical assistance activities Financial support from donors Coordinating entity: National Office of Sanitation Emission reduction (MtCO2e) : : 3.5 Incremental investment cost 580 M Incremental cost per tco2e Supporting financing from donors 165 /tco2e 95 M NAMA supporting activities 1.2 M

13 Tunisian GHG mitigation effort: NAMA in Forestry and Land-Use Objective: Support the achievement of the next two Tunisian forest strategies ( and ) Expanding the forest cover rate to 10% by Scope: Increase Carbon Uptake through Reforestation/Forest and Pasture regeneration Components (total: 23,000 ha/year): Reforestation native forest species (12,000 ha) Reconstitute existing young forestry areas which forest cover is below 50% (3,000 ha / year ) Assisted regeneration of senile natural forests (3,000 ha / year ) Planting fodder shrubs in area with high desertification risk (5,000 ha / year) Coordinating Entity: Forestry General Directorate (Ministry of Agriculture) CO2 Uptake (MtCO2e) Total Incremental Investment Cost 415 M Incremental Investment Cost per tco2e (estimated up to 2050) NAMA supporting activities (Pilot phase , incl. Investments) : : : /tco2e 12.7 M

14 Tunisian GHG mitigation effort: Tunisian Solar Plan (TSP) NAMA Objective: Support the achievement of the TSP objectives (30% of RE Electricity by 2030) Scope: Wind, CSP, biomass and PV (including PV roof installations) Components: Capacity building and technical assistance activities Sustainable financial mechanism including: private investment, public subsidy (ETF), public investment and international donor support Coordinating entity: National Agency for Energy Conservation Emission reduction (MtCO2e) : : 27 Incremental investment cost 4700 M Incremental cost per tco2e Supporting financing from donors 175 /tco2e 500 M NAMA supporting activities 1.1 M

15 Tunisian GHG mitigation effort: Recapitulation NAMAs NAMA in building sector NAMA in cement sector NAMA in waste water treatment sector Forestry and Land-Use Change GHG reductions over (MtCO2e) Incremental Investment cost (M ) NAMA supporting activity cost (M ) Investment cost ( /tco2e) NAMA for TSP 27 4, TOTAL 7,

16 INDC Tunisian approach - with support from UNDP Samir Amous (APEX Conseil) To be submitted by March 2015

17 INDC simulations Timeline targets: Mainly - Bottom-up approach Targeted Sectors Energy Efficiency + Renewable Energy (Bottom-up) Industrial processes (80% Bottom-up & 20% Top-down) AFOLU (Bottom-up) Wastes (Bottom-up) BAU: Includes usually implemented (or ongoing) mitigation activities Mitigation Scenario Includes recent mitigation studies + 6 identified NAMA activities Need for support from Post-Kyoto financial mechanisms

18 Aggregated results (Net emissions) All Emission Sources Population GDP Cnst2005 (Millions US$) National Emissions - BaU Scenario (1000 tco2e) National Emissions - Mitigation Scenario (1000 tco2e) Emission Reductions in absolute values as referred to BAU (1000 tco2e) Emission Reductions as related to BAU (%) ,2% -33,8% -37,6%

19 Aggregated results: GHG emissions

20 Aggregated results : GHG intensity GHG Intensity BaU (tco2e/1000 US$) 1,195 1,101 1,038 0,975 GHG Intensity Mitigation Scenario (tco2e/1000 US$) 0,779 0,687 0,608 Decrease in GHG Intensity as related to BAU (%) -29,2% -33,8% -37,6% Decrease in GHG Intensity as related to 2010 (%) -34,8% -42,5% -49,1% -49.1%

21 Aggregated results (GHG/Capita) Emissions par Capita BAU Scenario (tco2e) 3,2 3,8 4,6 5,5 Emissions par Capita Mitigation Scenario (tco2e) 3,2 2,7 3,0 3,5 Decrease in GHG per Capita as related to BAU (%) -29,2% -33,8% -37,6%

22 Sectoral GHG mitigation results Tous secteurs Mitigation values (1000 tco2e) Energy (Incl. EE&RE in Cement sector) Cement (incl. Co-processing & Excl. EE&RE) Industrial processes (Cement excluded) AFOLU (increase in net uptake) Solid Wastes (Excl. Co-processing) Liquid Wastes (Excl. EE&RE)

23 Sectoral GHG mitigation results: as related to BAU Energy (Incl. EE&RE in Cement sector) -17,2% -22,3% -27,9% Cement (incl. Co-processing & Excl. EE&RE) -20,4% -17,4% -15,0% Industrial processes (Cement excluded) -31,2% -26,3% -22,1% AFOLU (increase in net uptake) 60,1% 106,1% 154,7% Solid Wastes (Excl. Co-processing) -50,0% -50,0% -50,0% Liquid Wastes (Excl. EE&RE) -12,3% -13,9% -15,4% 3 1 2

24 Evènement parallèle «Expérience des pays francophones en matière de montage de NAMAs et des INDCs» CdP20, Lima, Pérou, 6 décembre 2014 S. Amous (Apex) R. Missaoui (Alcor) Thanks شكرا