World Offshore Wind Market and challenges ahead

Transcription

1 World Offshore Wind Market and challenges ahead 5-6 May 2010 Hamburg Offshore Wind Conference Andrew Henderson, GL Garrad Hassan 1

2 World Offshore Wind Market and Challenges Ahead Current Status & European Prognosis Leading National Markets Germany United Kingdom Netherlands Elsewhere in Europe / New Markets Outside Europe China (see next presentation) USA Foundations O&M 2

3 Market Status: Current 2 GW installed around the world to date with UK - currently largest market at 1GW: Another 2GW under construction Thanet 300MW Greater Gabbard 500MW Sheringham Shoal 315MW Walney (Phase 1) 180MW London Array 630MW 800 Also DK BE Upcoming Markets: DE NL Capacity [MW] Source: GH Offshore Market Report Year United Kingdom Sweden Netherlands Ireland Germany Denmark UK market - an international collaboration: Owner/Developers: DONG, Vattenfall, RWE, E.On, Eneco, Statoil-Statkraft Wind Turbines: Siemens, Vestas, REpower, Foundations: Sif/Smulders, Bladt/EEW Contractors: MT Højgaard, Bilfinger Berger/Aarsleff Vessels: A2Sea (DONG), Vroom Electrical: Siemens, Areva, ABB China Belgium Other Denmark, 207 MW, 9%?? Belgium, 165 MW, 7% China, 102 MW, 4% Germany, 0 MW, 0% Under Construction [2,239 MW] United Kingdom, 1,930 MW, 80% 3

4 Project CAPEX ( M / MW) [inflation adjusted] Vindeby Market Status: Prognosis Currently around 1GW being installed per year, rising to 5GW, equivalent to: 250 1,000 turbines per year 7, km of export cable 6, vessels to install support 5,000 structures 4, vessels to install 3,000 turbines 2, vessels to repair turbines 1,000 Prices appears to have plateaud 0 Can the risk premium be reduced now? Lely Tuno Knob Irene Vorrink Bockstigen Operational Under Construction Contracted Announced Blyth Samsø Nysted Utgrunden Yttre Stengrund Middelgrunden Wind Farm Capacity (New Installations) [MW] Beatrice Rhyl Flats Walney Phase I Princess Amalia (Q7) Robin Rigg Gunfleet Phase I & II Baltic I LID North Hoyle Barrow Horns Rev II Horns Rev Scroby Sands Egmond Kentish Flats Lillgrund Alpha Ventus Greater Gabbard Thanet Shanghai Sheringham Shoal Nordergründe Lincs London Array Year Source: GH Offshore Wind Database Costs estimated where not in public domain BE DE DK EI ES FI FR IT NL NO SE UK Other Europe Note: Market Analysis based on actual projects hence likely to be conservative towards end of decade Bubble Area represents capacity of wind farm Year of Commissioning

5 Market Status: Germany Projects are generally In deep waters Far from Coast However UK Round 3 will be even more challenging First Projects Under Construction after slow start Required development of new foundation technologies and manufacturing facilities Intense Activity in North and Baltic Seas Germany has limited offshore space µ Unknown Baltic 1 (BSH Contis maps) Denmark Baltic Eagle ArkonaSee West ArkonaSee Sud Beltsee Sky 2000 Unknown Baltic 2 (BSH Contis Maps) ArkonaSee Ost Ventotec Ost 2 Adlergrund (500 & GAP) Arkona Becken Sudost Kriegers Flak DE Baltic Power East Arcadis Ost 1 Baltic 1 Sweden 250 GEOffReE Support Structure Installations Germany Year >75m 50-75m 40-50m 30-40m 20-30m 10-20m 0-10m Note: Market Analysis based on actual projects hence likely to be conservative towards end of decade Scale: Germany Kilometers Legend: Poland Authorised Projects Planned Projects Unknown Baltic Projects 5

6 Market Status: UK UK Round 1 Demonstration projects: 30 WTGs, 10 km 2 Sites awarded projects now operational (1,020 MW) Ormonde under construction (30 REpower 5M) UK Round 2 Sites awarded Dec 03 First project operational; 3 under construction; 3 contracted Round 3 Different scale in terms of size, depth, distance to shore Summary 50.3 GW of projects Context: UK generating capacity 84GW Min/Max Demand 20 / 60GW Wind Farm Capacity (New Installations) [MW] 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, United Kingdom Year >75m 50-75m 40-50m 30-40m 20-30m 10-20m 0-10m Note: Market Analysis based on probabilistic analysis of actual projects hence will differ from other scenarios So where would the surplus power go? Spill? (this can make economic sense) Export via Supergrid? Storage (i.e. for transport) µ Legend: Southport Scroby Sands North Hoyle Rhyl Flats Barrow Kentish Flats Robin Rigg / Solway Firth Lynn Inner Dowsing Burbo Norfolk/Cromer Gunfleet Sands I Scarweather Sands Cirrus Array Teesside Ormonde Jan/2001 Round 1 - Operational Argyll Array Islay Round 1 - Under Construction Round 1 - Planned Round 1 - Abandoned Round 2 Projects Scottish Zones Round 3 Zones!( Aberdeen Bay Jan/2002 Jan/2003!( Kintyre License Jan/2004 Beatrice Inch Cape Bell Rock Neart na Gaoithe Solway Firth Wigtown Bay Irish Sea Bristol Channel Jan/2005 Moray Firth!( Firth of Forth Forth Array Dogger Bank Holderness Norfolk Beatrice Demonstrator Hastings Blyth West Isle of Wight Scale: Kilometers!( Tunes Plateau Jan/2006 Jan/2007 Jan/2008 Consent Application Under Consideration Application Withdrawn or Abandoned Consented and Awaiting Construction Contracted and Awaiting Construction Under Construction In Operation UK Round 1 Jan/2009 Jan/2010 Jan/2011 6

7 Market Status: Netherlands Early Developer of Offshore Wind (and onshore) Lely and Dronten built in mid 1990s in sweetwater Ijsselmeer Two real offshore projects: Egmond & Q7 Limited recent activity Price sensitive market? Round 2 Competitive tender amongst permitted projects 12 projects permitted to date Capacity awarded will depend on prices bid (range MW?) Round 3 Alternative offshore grid connection µ Along with numerous others, i.e. Sweden Wind Farm Capacity (New Installations) [MW] Scale: Additional projects located off Northern Coast Tromp Binnen Tromp West Tromp Oost Breeveertien II Den Helder I Brown Ridge Oost West Rijn Kilometers Netherlands Year Beaufort (N) Q7 - Princess AmaliaEgmond aan Zee Thetys Beaufort (S) >75m 50-75m 40-50m 30-40m 20-30m 10-20m Note: Market Analysis based on actual projects hence likely to be conservative towards end of decade 0-10m Netherlands Legend: Operational Projects Permitted Projects Preliminary Stage Projects Application Submitted Scoping Belgium Projects Rejected / Withdrawn Projects 7

8 Market Status: Outside Europe China First Offshore Wind Farm at Dong Hai near Shanghai: completion imminent 34 3MW Sinovel WTGs Yangtze River Delta Ground conditions soft hence alternative foundation types needed Battered Pile Foundation Further OWFs under construction / out to tender Several Chinese OWT being developed, typically 3 5MW Buyout of niche European WT developers European WT design bureaus Own technology? Work platform Boat landing Pile Pile cap 8

9 Market Status: Outside Europe USA & Canada European rather than Chinese in their approach Relatively long development timescale Cape Wind now permitted (28/4/10) Siemens SWT selected (31/3/10) Numerous initiatives elsewhere, including Great Lakes (sweetwater; ice) Issues Jones Act (affects ability of vessels to work in US waters) Implementation of a RPS Which state will be 1 st? What are the wind resources offshore (limited measurements to date) 9

10 Foundations Monopile has been the foundation of choice to date In fact the monopile s position has become more dominant with time But monopiles not possible for projects in deep waters with large turbines Natural frequency (fabrication limits) Piling limits (equipment; noise) No consensus regarding deepwater foundations as yet: Jackets Tripods Tri-piles or large monopiles? or a new foundation type? New Installed Capacity - Market Share Can Jackets be Fabricated and Installed in a Cost Effective Manner? Tripod 6 0% Tri-pile 82 4% Jacket 39 2% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% GBS Tripod Tri-pile Jacket Monopile 1994 GBS % Year Monopile 1,489 80% Source: GH Offshore Wind Database

11 Jacket Foundations Difficult to develop a future scenario where jackets do not become widely used If not most common type (scenario below) Foundations Installed 1,400 1,200 1, Other Foundation (incl. Tri-piles) GBS Jackets Monopiles 0 Year Belgium, Germany, Denmark, Spain, Finland, France, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, United Kingdom, Baltic States Note: Market Analysis based on actual projects hence likely to be conservative towards end of decade Source: GH Offshore Wind Database 11

12 Wind Turbines Is the optimal offshore wind turbine: A new turbine with specific offshore design features? A generic turbine with a proven track record? Lightweight? With key design features: No gearbox? A CMS (Condition Monitoring System) that delivers? What size is optimal Today? In the future? The largest WTG that can be built on monopiles at the particular site? That which delivers lowest Cost of Energy where?. Supplier Experience [unit years] Siemens, 1512 REpower, 24 Nordex, 11 Areva/Multib rid, 6 GE, 112 Other, 5 Source: GH Offshore Market Report Enercon, 6 BARD, 2 Vestas, 2372 IRR (Real): 12.0% 11.8% 11.6% 11.4% 11.2% 11.0% 10.8% 10.6% 10.4% 10.2% 3-4MW Class 5-6MW Class 7-10 MW Class In 20m water depth 3.xMW A 3.xMW B 5.xMW A 5.xMW B 5.xMW C New Installed Capacity - Market Share 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% MW Class 3 MW Class 2 MW Class 1 MW Class Sub 1MW Class Shift to large WTGs has been slow so far Year Source: GH Offshore Wind Cost Model

13 Contracting Design / ? 1 Supply / Install / ? O&M /6 3 3 Adhoc Adhoc 1 Warranty / Pardigm shift Turnkey Highly multi-contract Swinging back 13

14 The context offshore wind operational performance to date The early years: Poor wind turbine reliability and significant BoP issues Efficacy of O&M provision leading to mixed results Industry recognition that improved plant reliability and O&M provision needed 100% 95% 90% Downtime Multiplier Factor 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Month Sep Oct Nov Dec North Hoyle [04/05] North Hoyle [05/06] North Hoyle [06/07] Scroby Sands [2005] Scroby Sands [2006] Scroby Sands [2007] Kentish Flats [2006] Kentish Flats [2007] Kentish Flats [2008] NoordZeeWindPark [2007] NoordZeeWindPark [2008] Barrow [06/07] Barrow [07/08] Nysted [04] Nysted [05] Nysted [06] Average (all) Average (selected) Offshore Wind Farm Availability 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% solid = reported; outline = GH estimate from public production data 50% Year 14

15 Current O&M Provision State-of-the-Art for current wind projects Port-based work boats still dominate as access solutions Albeit with evolved design improvements from first decade experience Supplemented with Ad hoc jack-up support as required (all too often!) Helicopter support in some instances Even now, there are complex interactions between Instantaneous Availability Weather, reliability, access and lost production O&M resources 100 Simulated 95 example of a tough winter at a 250MW project /01 08/01 15/01 22/01 29/01 05/02 12/02 19/02 Time Period (Days) Series of failures during storm event and subsequent recovery 15

16 Simulated example (36 hour excerpt) 16

17 Future trends for O&M provision Some simulated results for selected future proposals Availability / Accessibility 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% Conventional Heli Support Mothership OPEX ( k / WTG / annum) Lost Direct Revenue Costs Accessibility Direct Costs Availability Availability Availability Accessibility Project Assumptions - 40% capacity factor WTG units - Mean Hs = 1.6m - 60km from port / coast / MWh Some tricky questions remain Regulatory issues associated with routine use of helicopters? Is there a role of third-party O&M providers? How will changes to WTG technology affect these questions? 17

18 Relations with the Neighbours Development activity in the German North Sea 18

19 HR1 HR2: 0% - 0.1% Relations with the Neighbours (a couple of Danish case studies ) Horns Rev 1 & 2 Separation distance ~15 km HR2 HR1: 0% - 0.3% NY1 NY2: 0.1% - 0.9% Reduction in Total Energy Production Range represents: impact of wind farm density, uncertainty Nysted 1 & 2 Separation distance ~5 km 3 3 NY2 NY1: 0.5% - 2.7% 3 N.B. Project data from public domain sources 19 N.B. Nominal assumptions made where necessary

20 Thank You! 20