Renewable Energy Financing point view

Transcription

1 Renewable Energy Financing point view 16 May 2013 Prepared by: Samar Obaid Partner TAS

2 Presentation Agenda 1. Energy Leaders 2. MENA Cleantech Trends 3. How to Establish an RE Project 4. Investment Risks Page 2

3 Solar energy leaders Ernst & Young All Solar Attractiveness Indices (November 2012) The US is expected to remain one of the world s largest solar markets through to 2013, as cheap solar panels coupled with state-level policies encourage market growth. US India China Germ India s second ranking reflects its National Solar Mission initiative and recent corporate commitments, such as Moser Baer s US$1b expansion of its solar subsidiary. Japan Italy Austr France China remains in third place as oversupply in the international solar export market has driven down the value of its previously high-growth industry. Spain Moro South Germany confirmed solar FIT cuts and spending caps it is beginning to see the limits of new solar installations. Brazil Greece Portu Israel 45 Source: Ernst & Young Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Indices, August 2012 Page 3

4 Wind energy across the globe Ernst & Young All Wind Attractiveness Indices (November 2012) China plans to add 100 GW of wind capacity by 2015, but faces issues of grid capability and connectivity to power-hungry coastal cities. China Germany Continued growth in the US likely as developers seek to qualify projects in 2012 for production tax credit ahead of a possible phase out. India Canada UK and Germany have aggressive offshore wind development plans, e.g., the North Sea HVDC Supergrid connecting the UK, Germany, and Norway India continues to be a high-growth wind energy market, adding 3 GW in 2011, driven by government policy and incentives. Canada is a newer entrant but is aggressively pursuing its wind energy strategy with installations touching 5 GW at the end of Wind energy is becoming less geographically concentrated 71 countries now have wind installations. Growth in Africa, South America and Asia. US UK France Sweden Poland Romania Italy Brazil Ireland Belgium South 50 Page 4

5 Consolidated Index for all Renewable Energies RECAI All Renewables Index November 2012 China: While consolidation in the solar sector as part of efforts to boost domestic installations and rationalize government support for supply chain firms may restabilize growth in the long term, the renewable sector is still undergoing a transformation that could slow growth in the nearer future. Germany: While the Government has recently increased the country s renewable target from 35% of electricity to 40% by 2020, and is being proactive in implementing policy measures to create sustainable growth, more immediate changes are likely to put a strain on the clean energy market. China Ger Unite India France UK Cana Japan US: The US falls to third place this quarter. While Obama s victory is good news for the country s clean energy sector, the election campaign has highlighted polarized views both political and public on the future of US energy policy and reinforces the challenge posed by political divisions in generating a consolidated energy strategy. Italy Brazil Austr Swe The RECAI provide scores for national renewable energy markets, infrastructures and their suitability for individual technologies. The indices provide scores out of 100 and are updated on a quarterly basis. Page 5

6 MENA Cleantech Trends Page 6

7 Renewable capacity in MENA Capacity growth driven by solar Total (in GW) Marine Hydro Wind Solar Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance market sizing data Page 7

8 MENA EnergyCleantech trend Renewable Energy Projects Source: Clean Energy Business Council Page 8

9 Ease of doing business rank Country solar attractiveness matrix 160 Ukraine 140 India Brazil 120 Egypt 100 China Italy Morocco Greece Germany United States France Japan Australia Spain UAE S. Korea Saudi Arabia Portugal Israel Austria Mexico Tunisia Turkey South Africa United Kingdom Romania Canada Poland Belgium Sweden Taiwan Solar attractiveness rank as per EY Country Attractiveness Index Size of bubble represents the size of the solar PV market (until 2016) Solar attractiveness ranks as per Ernst & Young s Country Attractiveness Indices (Nov 2012); top 35 ranks considered. Ease of doing business ranks based on 2012 Doing Business Report - The World Bank. Chile Bulgaria Netherlands Denmark Page 9

10 MW MW MW Some significant new capacity is expected in the next five years Solar PV Wind Saudi Arabia Morocco Egypt UAE Tunisia 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, , Morocco Egypt Tunisia Source: Lux Research Source: MAKE Consulting CSP Morocco Sudan Algeria Egypt Tunisia Jordan UAE Sources: Pike Research and CSP Today Page 10

11 There is potential across MENA region National targets proportion of electricity from renewable sources (%) 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 42% 20% 30% 12% 10% 10% 10% 10% 25% 20% Iraq plans to award 150 MW of wind and solar projects in 2013 Jordan aiming for 600 MW of wind power and 300 MW of solar power by % 5% 0% 7% 5% 5% Arab Spring slows progress but unlikely to prevent goals being achieved in the long term Source: Publicly available information Page 11

12 How to establish RE project High level Procurement timeline Month 1 Month 2 Month 3 Month 4-5 Month 6-7 Month 8 Month 9 Month 10 Month 1 Bid received preparation Evaluation report completed and awards announced Preferred bidder acceptance conditions cleared Final Stakeholder approval Final Close Examples South Africa Compliance Evaluation Pass/ Fail Price Competition Saudi EOI Prequalific ation Complet eness review Mandato ry criteria Pass/ Fail Related Criteria Price Competition Compliance Evaluation in South African Model is one step No rated criteria in South African model (only price scoring) Page 12

13 $m Cash flows generally stable following upfront capital cost Figure 4: Cash flow profile (indicative onshore wind project) 150 Typical cash flows for renewables projects characterised by: Upfront capital costs 0 (50) (100) Steady revenues from commencement of operations through to end of subsidy regime (150) (200) (250) Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 2 Indexing revenue streams (not all regimes) For projects lasting longer than subsidy regime (e.g. France onshore 15 year subsidy) there is a merchant tail where prices may be more volatile and attract lower debt coverage ratios Tax structures often enable limited tax payments in early years as a result of the significant upfront capital spend requirement Page 13

14 Investors have a more cautious view of how and when government set targets can be achieved is there a sufficiently strong incentive for renewable energy? what sort of technology risks exist in desert conditions? are the funding markets, local supply chains and grid infrastructures ready? how have currency risk and land ownership issues been considered and addressed? have rising political and credit risks in post Arab Spring conditions been addressed? governments have a vital role to play in addressing the concerns. Page 14

15 Risks Factor and how to mitigate Resource Technology Access to market Location Data availability Variability of the resources Technology supplier Technology risk O&M and guarantee Physical connection Ability to monetize through PPA Longer measurement Structure of financing Use of conservative resource estimates for financing Using proven technology Locate close to current grid possible Ensure PPA is discussed with financing counter parties Page 15