Supply Chain Opportunities and Management of Risk. Ian McCarlie

Transcription

1 Supply Chain Opportunities and Management of Risk Ian McCarlie

2 Supply Chain Opportunities and Management of Risk INTRODUCTION

3 Supply Chain Opportunities and Management of Risk I see offshore wind as a significant energy and industrial opportunity for the UK, and one that I am determined to seize. I believe the UK will remain the world s most attractive offshore wind market for many years to come. We have abundant natural advantages and a world-leading marine engineering base. David Cameron, 2011

4 Supply Chain Opportunities and Management of Risk Getting new capital into projects like offshore wind farms is the difference between getting them off the drawing board and into the water, creating jobs and stimulating growth. Charles Henry, 2011

5 Offshore Wind Map

6 Table of Statistics Round Site Developer MW Capacity Status Round Barrow DONG Energy & Centrica 90 Operational Beatrice Demo SSE Renewables 10 Operational Blyth E.ON UK Renewables 4 Operational Burbo Bank DONG Energy 90 Operational Gunfleet Sands I & II DONG Energy & Marubeni 173 Operational Lynn & Inner Dowsing Centrica Renewable Energy Ltd 194 Operational Kentish Flats Vattenfall 90 Operational North Hoyle RWE Npower Renewables 60 Operational Rhyl Flats RWE Npower Renewables 90 Operational Robin Rigg E.ON UK Renewables 180 Operational Scroby Sands E.ON UK Renewables 60 Operational Teesside EdF 62 Under Construction Cirrus Array (Shell Flats) N/A 270 Withdrawn Cromer N/A 108 Withdrawn Scarweather Sands N/A 108 Withdrawn

7 Table of Statistics Round Site Developer MW Capacity Status Round Thanet Vattenfall 300 Operational Walney I DONG Energy / SSE Renewables/ Ampere Equity / PGGM Operational Walney 2 DONG Energy / SSE Renewables/ Ampere Equity / PGGM Operational Greater Gabbard SSE Renewables, RWE Npower Renewables 504 Operational Ormonde Vattenfall 150 Operational Sheringham Shoal Scira Offshore Energy Ltd 317 Operational Gwynt Y Mor RWE Innogy / SWM / Siemens 576 Under Construction Lincs Centrica 270 Under Construction London Array I DONG Energy / E.On Renewables / Masdar 630 Operational Humber Gateway E.ON UK Renewables 300 Approved West of Duddon Sands Scottish Power/DONG Energy 389 Approved Westermost Rough DONG Energy 240 Approved Dudgeon Statoil & Statkraft 560 Approved Race Bank Centrica 580 Approved London Array II DONG Energy / E.On Renewables / Masdar 370 Conditional Approval Triton Knoll RWE Npower Submitted PINS Docking Shoal Centrica 540 Refused

8 Scottish Territorial Waters Site Developer MW Capacity Status Scottish Territorial Waters Beatrice SSE Renewables / SeaEnergy 1000 Submitted to Marine Scotland Neart na Gaoithe Mainstream 450 Submitted to Marine Scotland Inch Cape Repsol / EDP Renováveis 905 Exclusivity Agreement Awarded Islay SSE Renewables 690 Exclusivity Agreement Awarded Argylll Array Scottish Power Renewables 1800 Exclusivity Agreement Awarded

9 Round Site Developer MW Capacity Status Round Moray Firth Repsol / EDP Renováveis 1300 First Project Submitted Marine Scotland Firth of Forth Dogger Bank SeaGreen Wind energy Ltd (SSE Renewables, Fluor) Forewind Consortia (SSE Renewables, RWE Npower Renewables, Statoil and Statkraft) 3465 First Project Submitted Marine Scotland Site Awarded Hornsea Smart Wind Consortia (Mainstream Renewable Power, Siemens Project Ventures) and DONG Energy 4000 Site Awarded East Anglia East Anglia Offshore Wind Ltd (Scottish Power Renewables and Vattenfall) 7200 First Project Submitted PINS Rampion E.On Climate and Renewables 665 Site Awarded Navitas Bay Wind Park Eneco New Energy and EDF Site Awarded Bristol Channel RWE Npower Renewables 1500 Site Awarded Celtic Array Centrica & DONG Energy 4185 Site Awarded

10 Round 1 & 2 Extension Sites Site Developer MW Capacity Status Round 1 and 2 Extension Sites Galloper Wind Farm SSE Renewables, RWE Npower Renewables 504 Submitted PINS Kentish Flats 2 Extension Vattenfall 51 Submitted PINS Burbo Bank Extension DONG Energy 234 Site Awarded Walney Extension DONG Energy 750 Site Awarded

11 Demo Sites Site Developer MW Capacity Status Demo sites Gunfleet Sands 3 - Demonstration Project DONG Energy 12 Under construction Methil Offshore Wind Farm Demo site 2B Energy 6 Approved European Offshore Wind Deployment Centre Scotland Vattenfall, Technip and AREG <100 Submitted to Marine Scotland Blyth Offshore Wind Demonstration site NaREC <100 Submitted to MMO

12 Northern Ireland Site Developer MW Capacity Status Northern Ireland First Flight Wind DONG Energy, RES, B9 600 Site Awarded

13 So how is this all going to be delivered?

14 Supply Chain Opportunities and Management of Risk Existing projects have [proven] offshore wind works BUT Poor availability Lower than forecast access levels Serial defects and actual O&M costs higher than budgets They have also provided invaluable lessons for the industry Current situation is less favourable: High capital costs Equipment Shortage / Prototypes Finance/investment shortages EMR uncertainties

15 Supply Chain Opportunities and Management of Risk Completion Risks Capabilities and Resources of Key Project Participants Site Characterisation Wind Waves/Currents Site Investigation Contract Structure Turbine Supply Availability Supply Chain Cost Reduction Task Force

16 Supply Chain Opportunities and Management of Risk Contract Structure EPC versus Multi-Contract Both have their benefits and drawbacks Is there a single developer/sponsor or is the Project being undertaken by a joint venture? Is the allocation of responsibilities and risks clear and workable? Is each party playing to its strengths and experiences? How are design and construction interfaces handled, and by whom? Agree realistic programme with contractors: Consider weather risk and long lead items (cables, transformers and turbines) Adequacy of Liquidated Damages and Caps Both need to be significantly higher than onshore

17 Understand Risk in the Supply Chain

18 Supply Chain Opportunities and Management of Risk Operational Risks Capability and Experience of the Project Operators Site Characterisation Technology Selection Energy Yield Prediction Design Life Technology Risks Availability & Access O & M

19 Cost Reduction Task Force Reduce bottlenecks to entry Use best practice Target and support SME opportunities Standardisation across all aspects of windfarm development Promote alliance concept Common knowledge forum

20 Oil & Gas

21 Supply Chain Opportunities and Management of Risk What Skills? Offshore oil & gas Offshore renewables FEED Foundations & Piles Offshore assembly Cables & Connections Survey & Seismic Maintenance, Mods & Ops Support Vessels Decommissioning

22 Supply Chain Opportunities and Management of Risk Transferable Competence? Offshore oil & gas Offshore renewables Marinisation - encapsulation Marinisation air conditioning Marinisation - coatings Restricted access Specialist training Offshore regulations Safety / Security Marine support spread

23 Predictions? Collaboration Knowledge sharing Joint Ventures Pooling resources Who Dares Wins? first mover status

24 Thank You Ian McCarlie Partner For Pinsent Masons LLP Princes Exchange 1 Earl Grey Street Edinburgh T +44 (0) F +44 (0) ian.mccarlie@pinsentmasons.com enquiries@pinsentmasons.com

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