Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. artberman.com 1
|
|
- Cameron Butler
- 7 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Returning To Market Balance: How High Must Prices Be To Save The Oil Industry? Art Berman Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. Ray Leonard Hyperdynamics Lafayette Geological Society Lafayette, Louisiana May 18, 2016 Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. artberman.com 1
2 How High Must Prices Be To Save The Oil Industry? The global oil market is returning to balance more quickly than previously expected. That should mean higher oil prices but how high must prices be to save the industry? The price rally that began in late January-early February 2016 seems to have substance although outsized inventories should limit upward price movement. Recent outages in Kuwait, Nigeria, Venezuela and Canada have underscored the fragility of supply despite the prevailing production surplus. The weak global economy will be an important check on price recovery. Data suggests that oil producers need prices in the $70-80 range to survive. That is unlikely in the next year or so. If a weakened world economy cannot support those prices, we may see supply dwindle in a few years to levels that cause price spikes that cannot be absorbed. Without timely price relief, the future looks grim for an industry on life support. Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. artberman.com 2
3 Oil markets are much closer to balance than previously thought Comparison of World Liquids Balance, April vs May STEO EIA!Market!Balance,!Brent!Price!&!Forecast Millions of Barrels of Liquids Per Day Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jul Source:!EIA&!Labyrinth!Consulting! Services,!Inc Jun-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 April 2016 STEO Balance Oct-14 April!2016!STEO! Supply!minus! Consumption Nov Dec Jan Feb-15 May 2016 STEO Balance Mar Apr May Jun-15 May!2016!STEO! Supply!minus! Consumption Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr-16 Brent!Price!($/ Barrel) $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $ Source:!EIA&!Labyrinth!Consulting! Services,!Inc. $0 Jan-14 Brent!Price Mar-14 May-14 Jul Market!Balance Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May Jul-15 Market Balance Sep Nov Jan Mar-16 Brent Price May Improving! market!balance Jul Brent!price!below!$60/ barrel through end!of! Minor!market!balance deficit!by!mid-2017 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May Jul Sep Nov Market!Balance!(Supply!minus!Consumption!Millions!of!Barrels!of!Liquids!Per!Day) Major EIA revisions to world oil consumption data provide a new perspective. The world was over-supplied by only 570 kbpd of liquids in April compared to EIA s earlier estimate for March of 1,450 kbpd. That March estimate has now been revised downward to 970 kbpd. February s over-supply has been revised downward from 1,180 to 240 kbpd. Market balance has been slowly and generally improving since November The biggest concerns for a durable price recovery are outsized inventories and a weak global economy. Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. artberman.com 3
4 Consumption & Demand Growth EIA!Annual!Consumption!Growth!and!Forecast Millions!of!Barrels!of!Liquids!Per!Day!Per!Year Source:!EIA&!Labyrinth!Consulting! Services,!Inc EIA adjusted world consumption growth for 2016 upward to 1.4 mmbpd. Its estimate for 2017 is now a very strong 1.54 mmbpd. IEA demand estimate for 2015 is 3 mmbpd strongest demand growth since 2010 after recovery from negative growth during Financial Collapse. IEA acknowledges strong 1.41 mmbpd Q demand growth but maintains is 1.24 estimate for full-year 2016 because of concerns about the global economy. Demand growth because of lowest real oil prices since the 1990s. Demand is like reserves a quantity at a price. I share IEA s concern especially at higher average oil prices. Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. artberman.com 4
5 What Does Market Balance Mean For Price? Oil markets are never in balance. Producers always over-shoot or under-shoot with supply. Balance is simply a zero-crossing from one state of disequilibrium to the next, from surplus to deficit and back again. Since 2003, oil market within +/-0.25 mmbpd of balance 16% of the time. The average price (2016 dollars) for that near-market balance rate was $82 per barrel. But that was essentially the average oil price of $78 per barrel for the entire period. Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. artberman.com 5
6 What Does Market Balance Mean For Price? Oil!Price!Histogram!at!+/ -0.!25!mmbpd!of!Market!Balance Frequency Cumulative % 7 120% 6 100% 5 Frequency % 60% 40% Cumulative!Percent 1 20% 0 $10 $20 $30 $40 Source: EIA & Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 Oil-Price!Bins!($/ Barrel) $110 $120 $130 $140 More 0% Market balance occurred in every monthly average oil-price except $130 per barrel. Although prices above $90 per barrel represent 37% of near-market balance prices from 2003 to 2016, oil prices also averaged more than $90 per barrel 36% of the time during that 15-year period. Market balance reflects whatever price the market deems necessary to maintain supply at the time. No clear causal relationship between market balance and specific higher or lower oil prices. Balance merely represents the midpoint between prices on either side of the disequilibrium states that it demarcates. We think $ was normal but the market was in deficit. Moving toward market balance and being on the deficit side of market balance are hardly the same thing. Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. artberman.com 6
7 The Price Producers Need $160 Projected 2016 Break-Even Oil Prices for OPEC & Unconventional Plays $140 $137 Break-Even Price (Dollars Per Barrel) $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $119 $115 $110 $97 $95 $90 $89 $86 $86 $70-80!Near-Term!Survival Range!Minimum $77 $71 $70 $69 $67 $65 $65 $50 $49 $20 $0 Yemen Iran Algeria Bahrain Libya Oman New Oil Sands Qatar Average Saudi Arabia Source: IMF, Rystad Energy, Suncor, Cenovus, COS & Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. Deepwater Permian Core UAE Iraq Eagle Ford Core Bakken Core Lower-Cost Avg Existing Oil Sands Kuwait Lower-cost oil producers of the world need $50-80 per barrel and an average price of $65 per barrel to break even. $70-80 is a minimum price range for near-term survival of more efficient producers some will still lose money at those prices. Existing Canadian oil sands projects, and Bakken and Eagle Ford Shale core areas are among the very lowest-cost major plays in the world. For all of the OPEC rhetoric about the high cost of unconventional oil, few OPEC countries are competitive with unconventional plays when OPEC fiscal budgetary costs are included. Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. artberman.com 7
8 Tight Oil Companies on Life Support All tight oil-weighted companies that I follow had negative cash flow in the first quarter of 2016 except EP Energy and Occidental Petroleum. Nine companies increased their capex-to-cash flow ratios compared with full-year 2015 results and six increased that ratio by more than 2.5 times. Companies spent $1.90 in capex for every dollar they earned. In 2015, they spent $0.60 above what they earned. Average debt-to-cash flow ratio for tight oil companies increased more than 3-fold to 10, up from 3 in Energy industry average was 1.53 and 2.0 was a standard threshold for banks to call loans based on debt-covenant agreements. Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. artberman.com 8
9 How High Might Oil Prices Go? EIA!Market!Balance,!Brent!Price!&!Forecast Market Balance Brent Price Brent!Price!($/ Barrel) $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $ Source:!EIA&!Labyrinth!Consulting! Services,!Inc. $0 Jan-14 Brent!Price Mar-14 May-14 Jul Market!Balance Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Improving! market!balance Jul Brent!price!below!$60/ barrel through end!of! Minor!market!balance deficit!by!mid-2017 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May Jul Sep Nov Market!Balance!(Supply!minus!Consumption!Millions!of!Barrels!of!Liquids!Per!Day) Current prices around $48 per barrel a big improvement from January when prices were < $30. Nevertheless, all producers companies and exporting countries alike are failing and probably need sustained prices in the $70-80 per barrel range to survive. That is a stretch from the mid-upper $40 s resistance level of the past 10 months or so. EIA s forecast data suggest a minor supply deficit by the second half of Brent forecast, however, is to remain below $60 per barrel. Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. artberman.com 9
10 Inventories Remain a Serious Obstacle to Sustained Higher Prices U.S. stocks are near record high levels of 543 million barrels: 61 million barrels more than at this time in 2015 and 137 million barrels more than the 5-year average. OECD stocks are also at record levels of 3.13 billion barrels of liquids. Cushing and Gulf Coast combined storage is at 93% of working capacity. Cushing continues to increase. It is difficult to imagine $70-80 oil prices until this overhand dissipates and that may take a year assuming it is falling now. Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. artberman.com 10
11 Good News/Bad News About Comparative Inventories Comparative Inventory (Millions of Barrels of Crude OIl) & WTI Price ($/Barrel) Source: EIA, CME & Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. 0 1/2/15 1/16/15 1/30/15 2/13/15 2/27/15 3/13/15 3/27/15 4/10/15 4/24/15 Cushing + Gulf Coast Comparative Inventories 5/8/15 5/22/15 6/5/15 Futures Spread WTI Comparative Inventory Comparative!Inventory!(LHS) Falling!Comparative Inventories March!- August!2015! 6/19/15 7/3/15 7/17/15 7/31/15 8/14/15 8/28/15 9/11/15 9/25/15 WTI!(LHS) August!- October! 2015!Price!Cycle Dec-June!2016!Futures!Price!Spread!(RHS) 10/9/15 10/23/15 11/6/15 11/20/15 12/4/15 12/18/15 1/1/16 1/15/16 1/29/16 Falling!Comparative Inventories 2/12/16 2/26/16 March!- May 2016! Price!Rally 3/11/16 3/25/16 4/8/16 4/22/16 5/6/ December-June 2016 Futures Price Spread (Dollars Per Barrel) Comparative inventory is determined by comparing current stocks with a moving average of stocks over the past 5 years. The two previous price cycles in 2015 were both characterized by falling comparative inventories. When C.I. patterns reversed, prices fell. The current price cycle shows a decrease in comparative inventories for combined Cushing & Gulf Coast. Front-to-back futures spreads typically fall with decreasing inventories because short-dated contracts gain value compared to longer-dated contracts. The past two cycles ended because producers increased drilling and production at higher prices. Cushing stocks typically control WTI price and comparative inventories at Cushing are rising. Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. artberman.com 11
12 Strength of the U.S. Dollar and Oil Prices NYMEX WTI Price & WSJ Dollar Index WTI NYMEX Price WSJ Dollar Index $60 94 $50 Dollar Index!(RHS) Long dollar!futures! bets!sold!on!doubts! about!fed!rate!hikes $48!Resistance NYMEX WTI Price ($/Barrel) $40 $30 $20 WTI!(LHS) $26!Support Declining!dollar! value $36!Support Wall Street Journal Dollar Index $10 82 Source: EIA, Wall Street Journal & Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. $0 4-Jan Jan Jan Jan-16 1-Feb-16 8-Feb Feb Feb Feb-16 7-Mar Mar Mar Mar-16 4-Apr Apr Apr Apr-16 2-May-16 9-May May A negative correlation between the value of the U.S. dollar and world oil prices: a globally connected economy in which countries compete for investment based on interest rates and currency valuation. Oil transactions are denominated in U.S. dollars as the world reserve currency. Higher U.S. interest rates favor investments in the U.S. economy over commodities like oil. When the dollar is strong, oil prices are generally lower and vice versa. The correlation between oil price and the dollar is especially strong since 2015 and partly explains price cycles. The latest price rally began after the Federal Reserve Bank indicated that further interest rate increases in 2016 were unlikely. Dollar has been strengthening recently but oil prices continue to rise. Look for a short. Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. artberman.com 12
13 The Big Picture On Oil Prices: Under-Investment Large reduction in E&P investment in 2015 and probably even greater in Deferred investments in 2015 equivalent to 20 billion barrels of reserves. Global E&P estimated capex for 2016 is 44% (-$412 billion) of A substantial supply deficit will result in the not-too-distant future. A price spike seems unavoidable. Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. artberman.com 13
14 How High Must Prices Be To Save The Oil Industry? The current price rally seems to have substance although inventories are a concern. The global market appears to be moving quickly toward balance with higher consumption growth. Recent outages underscore fragility of supply. Under-investment during 2015 and 2016 means much higher oil prices in a few years. Anticipation of future supply deficits are moving prices higher. Expect similar high price volatility and price cycling with several upward-trending 4-5 month cycles. Prices must eventually reach the $70 to $80 per barrel range to restore balance sheets enough that investment may resume. Difficult to imagine in 2016 or 2017 without supply interruptions or an OPEC production cut. A weak global economy and weaker demand at higher oil prices are the biggest risks to oil-price recovery. A return to market balance does not necessarily mean that prices will return to the $70-80 range. If a weak economy cannot support those prices, we may see price spikes that cannot be absorbed. That may bring a traumatic end to the Age of Oil. People will have to learn to get by with less in a future based on lower energy-density fuels and lower economic growth potential than oil has provided. Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. artberman.com 14
The Origins of the Global Oil Price Collapse and Potential Investment Opportunities
The Origins of the Global Oil Price Collapse and Potential Investment Opportunities Arthur E. Berman, Petroleum Geologist Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. Houston, Texas February 25, 2016 Slide 1 The
More informationOil Markets Update- October 2015
SICO Research November 23, - October Crude prices remain low in October led by oversupply and weak economic indicators October has been a volatile month for crude prices; Brent reached USD 53.05/bbl in
More informationOil & Gas Market Outlook. 6 th Norwegian Finance Day Marianne Kah, Chief Economist March 2, 2016
Oil & Gas Market Outlook 6 th Norwegian Finance Day Marianne Kah, Chief Economist March 2, 2016 Challenging Market Environment Concerns that global economic growth will slow and reduce global oil and natural
More informationCauses and Consequences of the Decline in the Price of Oil since June 2014
Causes and Consequences of the Decline in the Price of Oil since June 2014 Christiane Baumeister Lutz Kilian University of Notre Dame University of Michigan CEPR Brent Price of Crude Oil in 2013 and 2014
More informationPETROLEUM WATCH September 16, 2011 Fossil Fuels Office Fuels and Transportation Division California Energy Commission
PETROLEUM WATCH September 16, 2011 Fossil Fuels Office Fuels and Transportation Division California Energy Commission Summary As of September 14, retail regular-grade gasoline prices in California increased
More informationThe Impact of Dollar Devaluation on World Oil Industry: Do Exchange Rates Matter?
The Impact of Dollar Devaluation on World Oil Industry: Do Exchange Rates Matter? A. F. Alhajji, Ph.D. Associate Professor College of Business Administration Ohio Northern university Ada, Oh, 4581 A. F.
More informationRecent crude oil price dynamics, PETRONAS and Malaysia
Recent crude oil price dynamics, PETRONAS and Malaysia Lim Kim- Hwa limkimhwa@penanginstitute.org Tim Niklas Schoepp tim.schoepp@penanginstitute.org 23 January 2015 Executive Summary Since PETRONAS contributed
More informationEIA s U.S. Crude Oil Import Tracking Tool: Selected Sample Applications
EIA s U.S. Crude Oil Import Tracking Tool: Selected Sample Applications November 2014 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 This report was prepared
More informationWhat drives crude oil prices?
What drives crude oil prices? An analysis of 7 factors that influence oil markets, with chart data updated monthly and quarterly Washington, DC U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics
More information2015 Oil Outlook. january 21, 2015
MainStay Investments is pleased to provide the following investment insights from Epoch Investment Partners, Inc., a premier institutional manager and subadvisor to a number of MainStay Investments products.
More informationRoom XXVI Palais des Nations Geneva, Switzerland. Oil Market Outlook. Eissa B. Alzerma Oil Price Analyst Petroleum Studies Department, OPEC
UNCTAD Multi-Year Expert Meeting on Commodities and Development 2013 Recent developments and new challenges in commodity markets, and policy options for commodity-based inclusive growth and sustainable
More informationAOBA Utility Committee
AOBA Utility Committee Energy Markets in Tailspin Major Economic Recession Continues to Pull Energy Prices Downward Where Will It End? Presented By Bruce R. Oliver President, Revilo Hill Associates, Inc.
More informationGlobal Oil Markets and Hedging Are Trends Your Friend?
Global Oil Markets and Hedging Are Trends Your Friend? Non-OPEC to painfully balance the oil market by moving from record growth in 2014 to production declines in 2016 EnerCom March 2016 Fredrik Sagen
More informationCOMPARISON OF FIXED & VARIABLE RATES (25 YEARS) CHARTERED BANK ADMINISTERED INTEREST RATES - PRIME BUSINESS*
COMPARISON OF FIXED & VARIABLE RATES (25 YEARS) 2 Fixed Rates Variable Rates FIXED RATES OF THE PAST 25 YEARS AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL MORTGAGE LENDING RATE - 5 YEAR* (Per cent) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
More informationCOMPARISON OF FIXED & VARIABLE RATES (25 YEARS) CHARTERED BANK ADMINISTERED INTEREST RATES - PRIME BUSINESS*
COMPARISON OF FIXED & VARIABLE RATES (25 YEARS) 2 Fixed Rates Variable Rates FIXED RATES OF THE PAST 25 YEARS AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL MORTGAGE LENDING RATE - 5 YEAR* (Per cent) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
More informationThe shale revolution - impact on the global oil and gas market
The shale revolution - impact on the global oil and gas market Thina Margrethe Saltvedt, Senior Analyst, Macro/Oil March 2013 @ThinaSaltvedt Brief intro to the oil market Drivers of the oil price Short-term
More informationKeeping Our Options Open: Markets for Canadian Crude and the Pipeline Dilemma
Keeping Our Options Open: Markets for Canadian Crude and the Pipeline Dilemma Trisha Curtis, Research Analyst Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc. (EPRINC) CERI Oil Conference 2012 April 23 rd, 2012
More informationBox 6 International Oil Prices: 2002-03
Annual Report 2002-03 International Oil Prices: 2002-03 Box 6 International Oil Prices: 2002-03 Notwithstanding the state of the world economy, characterised by sluggish growth in 2002, the world crude
More informationThe Fuel and Vehicle Trends Report January 31, 2014
ISSN 1948-2388 The Fuel and Vehicle Trends Report This report is a summary of the latest fuel prices and other oil industry key statistics. In addition, this report provides the latest trends in vehicle
More informationAT&T Global Network Client for Windows Product Support Matrix January 29, 2015
AT&T Global Network Client for Windows Product Support Matrix January 29, 2015 Product Support Matrix Following is the Product Support Matrix for the AT&T Global Network Client. See the AT&T Global Network
More informationOil Market Outlook. March 2016. Compiled by Dr Jeremy Wakeford
Oil Market Outlook March 2016 Compiled by Dr Jeremy Wakeford Highlights Oil prices have remained very weak in recent months, with the Brent benchmark averaging $31/bbl in January and $32/bbl in February
More informationOutlook for Oil and Natural Gas Markets
Outlook for Oil and Natural Gas Markets Helen Currie, PhD Senior Economist Legislative Finance Committee State of New Mexico 09-July-2014 Farmington, New Mexico Cautionary Statement The following presentation
More informationNatural Gas: Winter 2012-13 Abundance! and Some Confusion
Natural Gas: Winter 2012-13 Abundance! and Some Confusion NASEO Winter Fuels Outlook Washington, D.C. October 10, 2012 Bruce B. Henning Vice President, Energy Regulatory and Market Analysis BHenning@icfi.com
More informationStandard Note: SN/SG/2106 Last updated: 28 January 2014 Author: Paul Bolton Section Social & General Statistics
Oil prices Standard Note: SN/SG/216 Last updated: 28 January 214 Author: Paul Bolton Section Social & General Statistics Oil prices peaked at almost $15 Dollars a barrel in July 28 and fell sharply in
More informationAnalysis One Code Desc. Transaction Amount. Fiscal Period
Analysis One Code Desc Transaction Amount Fiscal Period 57.63 Oct-12 12.13 Oct-12-38.90 Oct-12-773.00 Oct-12-800.00 Oct-12-187.00 Oct-12-82.00 Oct-12-82.00 Oct-12-110.00 Oct-12-1115.25 Oct-12-71.00 Oct-12-41.00
More informationIEA-IEF-OPEC Outlook Comparison
IEA-IEF-OPEC Outlook Comparison Richard Newell, Director, Duke University Energy Initiative Gendell Professor of Energy and Environmental Economics, Nicholas School of the Environment Sixth IEA-IEF-OPEC
More informationJean-Yves Garnier Independent Consultant
Jean-Yves Garnier Independent Consultant JODI is much more than a database The JODI Databases Cooperation Harmonisation between organisations Image Coverage Cooperation between Countries and Organisations
More informationShort-Term Energy Outlook Market Prices and Uncertainty Report
July 2014 Short-Term Energy Outlook Market Prices and Uncertainty Report Crude Oil Prices: After an upward move in mid-june, crude oil prices retreated close to previous levels. The North Sea Brent front
More informationEnergy and the High Yield Market
Energy and the High Yield Market 2015 1Q Newsletter Formula for success: rise early, work hard, strike oil J. Paul Getty (1892 1976) A vital commodity? Crude oil prices have plummeted since mid2014 (see
More informationAn Assessment of Prices of Natural Gas Futures Contracts As A Predictor of Realized Spot Prices at the Henry Hub
An Assessment of Prices of Natural Gas Futures Contracts As A Predictor of Realized Spot Prices at the Henry Hub This article compares realized Henry Hub spot market prices for natural gas during the three
More informationMonetary Policy and Mortgage Interest rates
Monetary Policy and Mortgage Interest rates July 2014 Key Points: Monetary policy, which operates through changes in the official cash rate (OCR), is the main lever of macroeconomic management in Australia
More informationAnalysis of Whether the Prices of Renewable Fuel Standard RINs Have Affected Retail Gasoline Prices
Analysis of Whether the Prices of Renewable Fuel Standard RINs Have Affected Retail Gasoline Prices A Whitepaper Prepared for the Renewable Fuels Association Key Findings Changes in prices of renewable
More informationNatural Gas Prices To Crash Unless Rig Count Falls Fast
Natural Gas Prices To Crash Unless Rig Count Falls Fast By Arthur Berman Posted on Sun, 22 March 2015 00:00 0 Spending cuts for oil-directed drilling have dominated first quarter 2015 energy news but rig
More informationUnited Nations Conference on Trade and Development
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development MULTI-YEAR EXPERT MEETING ON COMMODITIES AND DEVELOPMENT 21-22 April 2016, Geneva Oil price trends, forecasts and their implications for developing economy
More informationOil and Gas U.S. Industry Outlook
Oil and Gas U.S. Industry Outlook VERSION 01 YEAR 13 OUTLOOK: Positive fundamentals & outlook www.eulerhermes.us Key points WTI Crude is expected to continue to converge to Brent crude prices, narrowing
More informationmany in the producing and investment community off guard and caused dramatic changes in producer behavior and balance sheets.
Testimony of Suzanne Minter Manager, Oil and Gas Consulting Platts Analytics before the U.S. Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee Hearing to examine challenges and opportunities for oil and gas
More informationWhither Oil Prices and Volatility?
OIL PRICE VOLATILITY What Do We Know? Robert J. Weiner Professor of International Business, Public Policy & Public Administration, and International Affairs, George Washington University Membre Associé,,
More informationOil Price and Korean Economy
Oil Price and Korean Economy April 17, 2015 Jaerang Lee - Contents - I. Oil Price Outlook II. Effects on Korean Economy III. Conclusion I. Oil Price Outlook Oil prices have lowered to around mid 50 dollars
More informationExample of a diesel fuel hedge using recent historical prices
Example of a diesel fuel hedge using recent historical prices Firm A expects to consume 5,, litres of diesel fuel over the next 12 months. Fuel represents a large expense for the firm, and volatile prices
More informationLifting the Crude Oil Export Ban
September 2015 Lifting the Crude Oil Export Ban Explainer I: Crude Oil Export Ban Overview The Bipartisan Policy Center (BPC) prepared this overview as part of a series to promote greater understanding
More informationTHE WORLD OIL MARKET. Mohan G. Francis
THE WORLD OIL MARKET Mohan G. Francis With the Bush administration busily moving military forces to the Gulf region, the sense of an impending war has begun to make an impact on the world petroleum markets.
More informationOil and Natural Gas Outlook: Implications for Alaska The Alliance Meet Alaska. Remarks by Marianne Kah Chief Economist
Oil and Natural Gas Outlook: Implications for Alaska The Alliance Meet Alaska Remarks by Marianne Kah Chief Economist Cautionary Statement The following presentation includes forward-looking statements.
More informationGCC in times of cheap oil: an opportunity for economic reform and diversification
GCC in times of cheap oil: an opportunity for economic reform and diversification Kevin Körner & Oliver Masetti GCC in times of cheap oil: an opportunity for economic reform and diversification, June 215
More informationCoffee year 2014/15 ends with prices at 20-month low
Coffee year 2014/15 ends with prices at 20-month low The coffee market slumped further in September, following a slight rally in August, with the weakness of the real and peso again proving the most influential
More informationTHE ACCIDENTAL HUNT BROTHERS ACT 2
THE ACCIDENTAL HUNT BROTHERS ACT 2 Index Speculators Have Been a Major Cause of the Recent Drop in Oil Prices Michael W. Masters Portfolio Manager Masters Capital Management mike@accidentalhuntbrothers.com
More informationOPEC: Oil price volatility and stock buying opportunities
For professional investors only OPEC: Oil price volatility and stock buying opportunities December 2014 Global oil prices have fallen precipitously Ministers from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting
More informationCONNECTICUT ENERGY PRICE REPORT
CONNECTICUT ENERGY PRICE REPORT 1/15/2015 DENOTES FALLING PRICES COMPARED TO YEAR EARLIER DENOTES FLAT PRICES COMPARED TO YEAR EARLIER DENOTES RISING PRICES COMPARED TO YEAR EARLIER CONNECTICUT RETAIL
More informationEurope s Refining Industry under Pressure Medium Term Outlook and Implications for Security of Supply
Europe s Refining Industry under Pressure Medium Term Outlook and Implications for Security of Supply Network Oil & Gas Seminar Stockholm, 31 October 2012 Toril Bosoni About the IEA The IEA was established
More informationOil Markets into 2006. Peter Davies Chief Economist, BP plc British Institute of Energy Economics London. 24 January, 2006
Oil Markets into 26 Peter Davies Chief Economist, BP plc British Institute of Energy Economics London. 24 January, 26 Outline Oil and energy today How did we get to here? Prospects for 26 Into the medium
More informationNatural Gas Markets in 2006
Order Code RL33714 Natural Gas Markets in 2006 Updated December 12, 2006 Robert Pirog Specialist in Energy Economics and Policy Resources, Science, and Industry Division Natural Gas Markets in 2006 Summary
More informationJAMES A. BAKER III INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY RICE UNIVERSITY
JAMES A. BAKER III INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY RICE UNIVERSITY Testimony of Kenneth B. Medlock III, PhD James A. Baker, III, and Susan G. Baker Fellow in Energy and Resource Economics, and Senior Director,
More informationOil Price Update Q2 2016
Oil Price Update Q2 2016 Are oil prices near their equilibrium? www.pwc.nl Oil Price Update Q2 2016 Are oil prices near their equilibrium? Global supply and demand Global oil prices have recovered by some
More informationKEY ISSUES IN OIL INVENTORIES
KEY ISSUES IN OIL INVENTORIES Third IEA IEF OPEC Symposium on Energy Outlooks Riyadh, 22 January, 2013 Joel R. Couse VP Market Analysis for Trading & Shipping TOTAL SA 1 WORLD SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE 94
More informationState Heating Oil & Propane Program Final Report Winter 2004/2005
Commonwealth of Massachusetts Division of Energy Resources State Heating Oil & Propane Program Final Report Winter 2004/2005 May 2005 Mitt Romney Governor Kerry Healey Lt. Governor Beth Lindstrom Director,
More informationComments on Energy Markets
Comments on Energy Markets Philip K. Verleger, Jr. Volume I, No. 1 May 16, 27 Impacts of Passive Commodity Investors on Energy Markets and Energy Prices Wall Street has made commodities a new asset class.
More informationThe North American Unconventional Revolution & The 2014-2015 Oil Price Collapse
The North American Unconventional Revolution & The 2014-2015 Oil Price Collapse Art Berman Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. Ray Leonard Hyperdynamics Jesse H. Jones Graduate School of Business Houston,
More informationUnconventional Oil and Gas Production Drives Trends in Water Management and Treatment
Unconventional Oil and Gas Production Drives Trends in Water Management and Treatment Jelena Stanic, Global Water Intelligence A research report, Water for the Onshore Oil and Gas, by Global Water Intelligence
More informationShort-Term Energy Outlook Market Prices and Uncertainty Report
February 2016 Short-Term Energy Outlook Market Prices and Uncertainty Report Crude Oil Prices: The North Sea Brent front month futures price settled at $34.46/b on February 4 $2.76 per barrel (b) below
More informationSTEO Supplement: Why are oil prices so high?
STEO Supplement: Why are oil prices so high? During most of the 1990s, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price averaged close to $20 per barrel, before plunging to almost $10 per barrel in late
More informationCase 2:08-cv-02463-ABC-E Document 1-4 Filed 04/15/2008 Page 1 of 138. Exhibit 8
Case 2:08-cv-02463-ABC-E Document 1-4 Filed 04/15/2008 Page 1 of 138 Exhibit 8 Case 2:08-cv-02463-ABC-E Document 1-4 Filed 04/15/2008 Page 2 of 138 Domain Name: CELLULARVERISON.COM Updated Date: 12-dec-2007
More informationThe lower energy and feedstock prices overall have the following effects:
Impact of lower oil price on the European Chemical Industry Executive summary Oil prices have seen a rapid drop over the past six months with the price per barrel sinking to its lowest point since 2009.
More informationMarkaz Volatility Indices (MVX)
Kuwait Financial Centre S.A.K Markaz R E S E A R C H August 27 Markaz Volatility Indices (MVX) August 27 Research Highlights: Markaz volatility indices for the GCC, GEM and S&P 5. Summary The Volatility
More informationThe Changing Relationship Between the Price of Crude Oil and the Price At the Pump
In 2007, what goes up, does not necessarily come down... May 3, 2007 The Changing Relationship Between the Price of Crude Oil and the Price At the Pump Prepared by: Tim Hamilton Petroleum Industry Consultant
More informationAdjusted Estimates of Texas Natural Gas Production
Adjusted Estimates of Texas Natural Gas Production Background The Energy Information Administration (EIA) is adjusting its estimates of natural gas production in Texas for 2004 and 2005 to correctly account
More informationWhat does the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index track?
Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index FAQ What does the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index track? The Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index is an index tracking the performance of a weighted group of exchange-traded futures
More informationWhat the recent oil price shock teaches about managing uncertainty
What the recent oil price shock teaches about managing uncertainty Scenario planning remains the most effective way to prepare for volatility in energy markets. By Jorge Leis Jorge Leis is a partner with
More informationPresentation on Results for the 2nd Quarter FY 2015. Idemitsu Kosan Co.,Ltd. November 4, 2015
Presentation on Results for the 2nd Quarter FY 2015 Idemitsu Kosan Co.,Ltd. November 4, 2015 Table of Contents 1. 2 nd Quarter FY 2015 Financials (1) Overview (2) Segment Information (3) Streamlining 2.
More informationUS Shale Oil at an Inflection Point
(million barrels per day) October 215 US Shale Oil at an Inflection Point Summary For comments and queries please contact: This report follows up on a comprehensive analysis we published on the US tight/shale
More informationQ1 2016. Qatar Quarterly Monitor
Q1 216 Qatar Quarterly Monitor Asiya Research at a glance 2 Every month, we provide: 1) Macroeconomic outlook. 2) Analysis of all countries in Asia and GCC, and some key industrialized economies. 3) Trading
More informationMarket Monitor Number 3 November 2012
Market Monitor Number 3 November 2012 AMIS Crops: World Supply-Demand Balances in 2012/13 World supply and demand situation continues to tighten for wheat and maize but rice and soybeans have eased. In
More informationIntercontinentalExchange. Credit Suisse Financial Services Forum February 7, 2008
IntercontinentalExchange Credit Suisse Financial Services Forum February 7, 2008 Forward-Looking Statements Forward-Looking Statements This presentation may contain forward-looking statements made pursuant
More informationMarket Bulletin DECEMBER 2014
Market Bulletin DECEMBER 214 AUTHOR Alex Dryden Market Analyst Adjusting to a world of lower oil prices The collapse in oil prices over the last few months has led to much contemplation by investors and
More informationCoffee prices fall but Brazilian production estimated lower
Coffee prices fall but production estimated lower Coffee prices continued their decline as speculation over the current 2015/16 crop suggests that the market has no immediate supply concerns. Indeed, one
More informationTRADING AND ANALYTICS GUIDE
Objective information. Sytematic approach TRADING AND ANALYTICS GUIDE February 9, 2016 Part I TRADING AND ANALYTICS GUIDE Overview Page 1 GeckoiCapital Analytics (GiCA) is a research and analysis division
More informationRecent Oil-Market Developments: Causes and Implications
Recent Oil-Market Developments: Causes and Implications Statement of Professor Robert J. Weiner Professor of International Business, Public Policy & Public Administration, and International Affairs, George
More informationRush hour in Kolkata (formerly Calcutta), India. Between 1990 and 2000, the number of motor vehicles per capita more than doubled in four
Rush hour in Kolkata (formerly Calcutta), India. Between 1990 and 2000, the number of motor vehicles per capita more than doubled in four Asia-Pacific nations: South Korea, the Philippines, India, and
More informationCBO STAFF. UNDERSTANDING THE VOLATILITY OF OIL PRICES DURING THE IRAQ-KUWAlT CRISIS. January 1991
CBO STAFF MEMORANDUM UNDERSTANDING THE VOLATILITY OF OIL PRICES DURING THE IRAQ-KUWAlT CRISIS January 1991 CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE SECOND AND D STREETS, S.W. WASHINGTON, D.C. 205 15 This staff memorandum
More informationEnhanced Vessel Traffic Management System Booking Slots Available and Vessels Booked per Day From 12-JAN-2016 To 30-JUN-2017
From -JAN- To -JUN- -JAN- VIRP Page Period Period Period -JAN- 8 -JAN- 8 9 -JAN- 8 8 -JAN- -JAN- -JAN- 8-JAN- 9-JAN- -JAN- -JAN- -JAN- -JAN- -JAN- -JAN- -JAN- -JAN- 8-JAN- 9-JAN- -JAN- -JAN- -FEB- : days
More informationCrude Oil Prices after the OPEC Meeting
361st Regular Meeting for Briefing Research Report April 12, 2000 Crude Oil Prices after the OPEC Meeting Ken Koyama, Group Manager International Trend Analysis Group The Institute of Energy Economics,
More information4Q14 Conference Call. Jan. 29, 2015
4Q14 Conference Call Jan. 29, 2015 Cautionary Statement The following presentation includes forward-looking statements. These statements relate to future events, such as anticipated revenues, earnings,
More informationOIL PRICE DRIVERS bottom OF the barrel?
OIL PRICE DRIVERS bottom OF the barrel? AN INDEPENDENT RESEARCH PAPER COMMISSIONED BY FTI CONSULTING JUNE 216 Foreword Over recent years, the fundamentals governing the global price of oil have altered
More informationFrontline The Fleet. 40 + 1 N/B VLCCs incl. 11 J/V Equals 34.6 vessels on a 100% basis. 8 Suezmax OBOs
A Changing Company The Company The world s largest tanker company listed NYSE and Oslo Current Market Cap USD 900 million Daily trading volume in excess of USD 20 million Total fleet 72 vessels VLCC /
More informationTime to energize? The outlook for oil, equities, and high-yield bonds
May 8, 2015 Time to energize? The outlook for oil, equities, and high-yield bonds Dan Morris, CFA Tim Hopper, PhD Michael Ainge, CFA Jeff Bellman Global Investment Chief Economist Head of Corporate Energy
More informationThe Impact of Oil Prices on the Canadian Economy. Policy Brief. The Canadian Chamber is committed to fostering. Introduction
The Impact of Oil Prices on the Canadian Economy Introduction Policy Brief Economic Policy Series June 2011 Who would have thought that the desperate act of one fruit vendor in a small village in Tunisia
More informationA self-defeating rally
The New Oil Order A self-defeating rally Commodities Research Market rebalancing derailed by price rally The oil market rebalancing has started: weak prices in 1Q15 pushed producers to cut capex while
More informationWhy the Benefits of Cheaper Oil Outweigh the Drawbacks
Why the Benefits of Cheaper Oil Outweigh the Drawbacks By David Leduc, CFA Ben Li, CFA Andrew Fahey, CFA Thomas Higgins, PhD Standish Mellon Asset Management Company LLC World oil prices have plummeted
More informationOil markets, oil prices, and the financial crisis. Havana, October 30, 2009 Joel R. Couse, VP Market Analysis for Trading & Shipping
Oil markets, oil prices, and the financial crisis Havana, October 3, 29 Joel R. Couse, VP Market Analysis for Trading & Shipping Oil is the World s biggest physical commodity market: over 15% of world
More informationYara International ASA Second quarter results 2014
Yara International ASA Second quarter results 214 18 July 214 1 Summary second quarter Strong result Lower nitrate deliveries amid early end to season in Europe Continued strong NPK deliveries and value-added
More informationRecent Developments and Outlook for the Mexican Economy Credit Suisse, 2016 Macro Conference April 19, 2016
Credit Suisse, Macro Conference April 19, Outline 1 Inflation and Monetary Policy 2 Recent Developments and Outlook for the Mexican Economy 3 Final Remarks 2 In line with its constitutional mandate, the
More informationStrawberry Industry Overview and Outlook. Feng Wu Research Associate Gulf Coast Research and Education Center University of Florida fengwu@ufl.
Strawberry Industry Overview and Outlook Feng Wu Research Associate Gulf Coast Research and Education Center University of Florida fengwu@ufl.edu Zhengfei Guan Assistant Professor Gulf Coast Research and
More informationEnergy Prices. Presented by: John Heffernan
Global Wholesale Energy Prices Presented by: John Heffernan Energy in 2012 In 2012, the growth in Energy consumption slowed in 2012 90% of this growth came from China & India Consumption & production of
More informationWorld Oil Markets: Implications for Consumers, Producers, and the World Economy. James D. Hamilton Dept. of Economics, UCSD
World Oil Markets: Implications for Consumers, Producers, and the World Economy James D. Hamilton Dept. of Economics, UCSD 1 Inflation-adjusted price of crude oil (West Texas Intermediate, 2008 dollars)
More informationThe case for high yield
The case for high yield Jennifer Ponce de Leon, Vice President, Senior Sector Leader Wendy Price, Director, Institutional Product Management We believe high yield is a compelling relative investment opportunity
More information3/11/2015. Crude Oil Price Risk Management. Crude Oil Price Risk Management. Crude Oil Price Risk Management. Outline
1 Phoenix Energy Marketing Consultants Inc. 2 Outline What is crude oil price risk management? Why manage crude oil price risk? How do companies manage crude oil price risk? What types of deals do companies
More informationGasBuddy Fuel Price Outlook 2015
GasBuddy Fuel Price Outlook 2015 SUMMARY About Our Annual Outlook Accuracy, reliability, and neutrality are GasBuddy s mission with price forecasting, and it is achieved with independent analysis featured
More informationWhy Has Japan Been Hit So Hard by the Global Recession?
IMF STAFF POSITION NOTE March 18, 9 SPN/9/5 Why Has Been Hit So Hard by the Global Recession? Martin Sommer I N T E R N A T I O N A L M O N E T A R Y F U N D INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND Why Has Been Hit
More informationDrilling Down Understanding Oil Prices and Their Economic Impact
Remarks by Timothy Lane Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada Madison International Trade Association (MITA) Madison, Wisconsin 13 January 215 Drilling Down Understanding Oil Prices and Their Economic
More informationOil and Gas Price Forecast Update: Where are Oil and Gas Prices Heading?
RESERVOIR ENGINEERING SOFTWARE & SERVICES Oil and Gas Price Forecast Update: Where are Oil and Gas Prices Heading? Dale Struksnes, Manager - Reserve Evaluations April 13, 2010 Media Commentary on Oil and
More informationYou may be interested.
You may be interested. has prepared the enclosed report, Buy Insurance When It s Cheap: Add to the SPR Now. The immediate oil market effects of the terrorist attacks of September 11 th and the still-evolving
More informationINTRODUCTION. Production / Extraction of Oil. Distribution & Sale to refined products to end users
CRUDE OIL INTRODUCTION Crude oil holds prominence as input to the global growth engine since it is the most important source of energy accounting for more than two fifth of the global energy consumption.
More information