Brazil. PAC s Investment Opportunities ROBERTO GARIBE. Special Advisor

Transcription

1 Brazil PAC s Investment Opportunities ROBERTO GARIBE Special Advisor Staff House of the Presidency of the Republic

2 PAC S INVESTMENTS

3 PAC Growth Acceleration Program In 2007 PAC 1 To accelerate the pace of economic growth To increase employment and income rates To decrease social and regional inequalities To overcome infrastructure bottlenecks In 2009, a new function To reduce the impact of the international economic crisis countercyclical policy In 2010, a new stage: PAC Set of measures aimed at: To encourage private investments To remove bureaucratic, administrative, regulatory, legal and legislative obstacles to growth To increase public investments in infrastructure

4 GROWTH ACCELERATION PROGRAM PAC 1, Infrastructure projects in three areas Area After 2010 TOTAL LOGISTICS POWER G&T SOCIAL AND URBAN billion TOTAL

5 GROWTH ACCELERATION PROGRAM PAC 2, Preliminary investment forecast billion Axes After 2014 TOTAL PAC BETTER CITY PAC COMMUNITY WITH CITIZENSHIP PAC MY HOUSE, MY LIFE PAC WATER AND LIGHT FOR ALL PAC TRANSPORTS PAC ENERGY TOTAL

6 INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES: RAILROADS AIRPORTS URBAN MOBILITY PORTS

7 RAILROADS

8 RAILROADS INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIESO RAILROAD CONCESSION PROGRAM Participation i in public bidding processes North-South ot Railroad East-West Integration Railroad High-Speed Rail

9 NEW CONCESSION AND USAGE MODEL FOR NEW RAILROADS In study by the Government Separation of Infrastructure and Operations: VALEC is the Concessionaire for the North-South, East-West Integration and Midwest Integration Railroads The infrastructure management would be under VALEC s responsibility, and totally separated from the operation A third party, non-concessionaire, logistics operator or user would be entitled to travel by the existing railroad concessions by paying rates Would be established a preset number of tracks to suit its needs

10 NORTH-SOUTH RAILROAD SOUTH SECTION 33% of Brazil s agricultural l production 72% of agricultural land Large mineral reserves Outflow of the agro-industrial and mineral production to four ports Length: 1,525 km Investment: 2,2 billion

11 Port of Vila do Conde /PA Port of Itaqui/MA Palmas/TO Anápolis/ GO Estrela D Oeste/SP Port of Santos/SP Port of Itaguaí/RJ

12 EAST-WEST INTEGRATION RAILROAD Outflow of the agricultural and mineral production Waterway integration Length: 1,527 km Investment: 1,7 billion

13 São Francisco Waterway Figueirópolis/TO Ilhéus/BA

14 HIGH-SPEED RAILS PLANNED PAC 1 Campinas-São Paulo-Rio de Janeiro 98 km km: 511 km PAC 2 On study Curitiba-São Paulo: 461 km São Paulo-Belo Horizonte: 559 km Campinas-Uberlândia: 540 km Uberlândia

15 HIGH-SPEED RAIL - HSR PROPOSED STATIONS Most populous region (36 million inhabitants) and the most developed economically (45% of GDP) of Brasil Rio de Janeiro-São Paulo: 450 km in 93 minutes São Paulo-Campinas: 100 km in 30 minutes

16 HIGH-SPEED RAIL HSR Project scope Estimated investment: 15.7 billion Deadline for entry into operation: 2016 Announcement published on July 13, 2010 Concessionaire responsible for the design, construction, operation and maintenance, complying with technical performance parameters; Auction to be open to all existing technologies Compulsory technology transfer Public sector participation: own capital and financing Documentation available at Technical studies on demand, alignment, geology, operation and economic-financial modeling completed and available Concession auction November, 2010

17 HIGH-SPEED RAIL HSR Transport Matrix, 2008 Without HSR Thousand passengers per year Modal RIO - SÃO PAULO RIO - CAMPINAS REGIONAL TOTAL Plane 4, ,689 Car 1, ,770 17,064 Bus 1, ,039 11,847 Total 7, ,809 33,600 With HSR HSR - Economy 2, ,170 17,069 HSR - Executive HSR - Total 3., ,170 17,991 Plane 2, ,469 Car ,108 8,890 Bus ,531 4,250 Total 7, ,809 33,600

18 HIGH-SPEED RAIL HSR Demand Forecasting DEPARTURE ARRIVAL EXPRESS SERVICES 3,821 7,070 11,282 19,323 27,788 Rio de Janeiro São Paulo 3,519 6,435 10,201 17,348 24,948 Rio de Janeiro Campinas , , ,840 REGIONAL SERVICES 14,170 25,538 34,777 49,774 71,577 Rio de Janeiro V. Redonda/B. Mansa 1,017 2,619 3,271 4,211 6,055 S.J. dos Campos S.J. dos Campos V. Redonda/B. Mansa São Paulo Campinas S.J. dos Campos São Paulo 4,959 8,553 11,490 16,282 23,415 Campinas 598 1,305 2,003 3,110 4,473 São Paulo Campinas 7,365 12,372 17,094 24,905 35,815 TOTAL 17,991 32,608 46,059 69,097 99,365

19 HIGH-SPEED RAIL HSR Revenue Forecasting million DEPARTURE ARRIVAL EXPRESS SERVICES , , , Rio de Janeiro São Paulo , , Rio de Janeiro Campinas REGIONAL SERVICES , Rio de Janeiro V. Redonda/B. Mansa S.J. dos Campos S.J. dos Campos V. Redonda/B. Mansa São Paulo Campinas S.J. dos Campos São Paulo Campinas São Paulo Campinas TOTAL 1, , , ,721.50

20 HIGH-SPEED RAIL HSR Track description Characteristics ti Gauge: 1,435 mm Maximum speed: 350 km/h Minimum horizontal radius: 7,228 m Minimum vertical radius: 42,875 m Maximum gradient: 35 mm/m Axle load: 17t Minimum platform: 500 m Reference route Length: km Tunnel: 90.9 km (18%) Bridge: km (21%) On surface: km (61%)

21 HIGH-SPEED RAIL HSR Studies Environmental Studies The route considered the social and environmental constraints identified Terms of Reference for EIA / RIMA defined ANTT will conduct an environmental impact study in order to obtain the license to begin the HSR s construction Geological-Geotechnical Studies Geological l mapping of the reference route completed Geological survey and laboratory tests of the samples taken completed

22 HIGH-SPEED RAIL HSR Investments Item Investment 2009 % (000) Earthmoving ,1 6,4 Artworks ,5 52,4 Buildings and equipments ,9 4,1 Signalling and Telecommunications ,5 18 1,8 Permanent Route ,7 6,2 Environmental Measures ,2 11,2 Electrification ,4 3,9 Trains ,1 7,9 Additional Services ,6 6,0 TOTAL ,2 100,0

23 HIGH-SPEED RAIL - HSR Financial Modeling General assumptions Demand and Revenue: Studies made by Halcrow Taxes exoneration: REIDI, and ICMS, PIS and COFINS exemption Investment: 5 years R$34,6 billion Term of Concession: 40 years Government s direct financing: Interest Rate: TJLP + 1% Term: 30 years DSCR: 1.2 IRR For the project: 5.7% For the stockholder: 9.2% Leverage level: 70% / 30% Public participation (ETAV): US$0.6 bi (own capital) + US$1.3 bi (expropriation)

24 HIGH-SPEED RAIL - HSR Concession model TREM DE ALTA VELOCIDADE - TAV Legal model: common concession paid with extraordinary revenues and tariffs Object: public high-speed rail concession preceded by the infrastructure construction Term: 40 years Tariff system: price ceiling adjusted d by IPCA with pricing i freedom, provided the following condition is respected: Price ceiling for Economy Class: 0.2 per km in the Rio de Janeiro - São Paulo direct connection

25 AIRPORTS

26 AIRPORTS Guidelines To provide for the airports a structure suitable for: Ensuring quality care and users comfort Meet the increase in the projected demand d Improving the conditions for operational safety: Lane, yard, control tower Technological upgrade of the operating systems Total: 13 airports

27 AIRPORTS Historical Demand 1997 : 0.3 passengers carried per capita (163.8 million) 2008 : 0.6 passengers carried per capita (189.6 million) After 2003: growth of 10% on passengers carried per capita Number of passengers: Million boardings + landings + connections % pa % pa % International Domestic Source: EMBRATUR

28 R$ Million, Preliminary Airport HOST CITIES AIRPORTS Investment Belo Horizonte Brasília Cuiabá Curitiba Fortaleza Manaus Natal Porto Alegre Recife Rio de Janeiro Salvador São Paulo Total * , ,552.5 Sittuation Considering Guarulhos (R$1,219.4 million) and Viracopos (R$ 742 million) Responsibility Matrices sent to host cities Goal: sign up the Matrices until July 19, 2010 * Includes R$ 400 million from concessionaire s investment

29 HOST CITIES AIRPORTS Operating modules R$ Million Airport Amount (R$ Million) Size (m2) Current operating capacity (million) Capacity increase (million) Opening Ending Brasília , Balancing to improve the comfort level August, 2012 June, 2013 Campinas 5.0 1, Guarulhos , ,.0 October, 2010 February, 2011 July, 2013 December, 2011 Guarulhos , August, 2012 June, 2013

30 AIRPORTS INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIESO AIRPORTS CONCESSION PROGRAM Participation in public bidding processes São Gonçalo do Amarante Airport

31 SÃO GONÇALO DO AMARANTE AIRPORT Concession to operate the São Gonçalo do Amarante Airport at the State of Rio Grande do Norte. Airport fees from the concessionaire limited by ANAC Fees adjusted annually by a consumer price index and revised ordinarily every five years in order to preserve the economic and financial i balance of the contract t

32 SÃO GONÇALO DO AMARANTE AIRPORT The higher value offered by the grant wins Prohibited Participation of air transport services companies, directly or indirectly, on the voting capital of the concessionaire in a percentage equal to or greater than ten percent Participation of the concessionaire or its shareholders, directly or indirectly, on the voting capital of companies providing air transport services in a percentage equal to or greater than ten percent Demand projection million passengers per year

33 SÃO GONÇALO DO AMARANTE AIRPORT Investment t Results Investment cycles in a horizon of 35-years concession Source: ANAC / BNDES MM MM MM

34 SÃO GONÇALO DO AMARANTE AIRPORT Key Investments t Passenger Terminal 192,408 Infrastructure Systems 54,151 Flight Protection Systems 45,148 Environmental Investments 31,473 Other Investments t 27,192 Total 350,371

35 URBAN MOBILITY PAC 1

36 URBAN MOBILITY Subways Million State City Amount CE Fortaleza 385,5 RJ Rio de Janeiro 216,2 SP São Paulo 994,4 MG Belo Horizonte 16,0 BA Salvador 295,0 PE Recife 177,4 RS Porto Alegre TOTAL 323, ,7

37 URBAN MOBILITY PAC 2

38 URBAN MOBILITY Guidelines To improve the public transportation systems in major urban centers Subway, LRT, BRT and bus lanes Better public transportation Reduced travel time Increased quality of life on major cities *Does not includes counterparts billion Investment* Union Budget 2.7 Financing 5.4 TOTAL 8.1

39 URBAN MOBILITY WORLD CUP 2014

40 WORLD CUP 2014 HOST CITIES Fortaleza Manaus Natal Recife Cuiabá Salvador Brasília Belo Horizonte Curitiba São Paulo Rio de Janeiro Porto Alegre

41 RESPONSIBILITY ASSIGNMENT MATRIX Issue Ports Passenger Terminals Airports Passenger Terminals and Lanes Stadiums Construction, reform and maintenance Urban Mobility Hotels Responsible Federal Government Federal Government States and Municipalities States and Municipalities Private sector Federal Government support through financing

42 URBAN MOBILITY Projects selection criteria: Attending the public transport system Directly related to the World Cup: to improve the access to the stadium, hotel zones, airports, ports and/or bus stations Having preliminary / executive designs Complying with the World Cup schedule Connecting different transport modes Intermodality Having a defined operator

43 URBAN MOBILITY FINANCING Pró Transporte program: Amount: 4.1 billion through FGTS Deadline: 4 years of grace period after signing g the contract 20 years to repay after the grace period (30 years for public rail transport) Scope: Light Rail Vehicles (LRVs) Monorail and Bus Rapid Scope: Light Rail Vehicles (LRVs), Monorail and Bus Rapid Transit (BRT)

44 URBAN MOBILITY Summary per Modal Modal Qty Project Value Financing Million Subway 2 15,8 15,0 Bus Terminals 3 29,0 28,0 Monitoring 3 51,0 50,6 VLT 2 284,6 240,1 Bus Corridors ,1 821,0 Monorail ,9 760,4 BRT , ,6 Total , ,7

45 URBAN MOBILITY Summary Worksheet Host City Qty Project Value Million Financing Value Natal 2 185,9 163,2 Brasília 1 164,6 163,2 Fortaleza 7 254,1 187,4 Curitiba 9 201,6 199,2 Cuiabá 3 217,6 205,6 Porto Alegre ,3 220,8 Salvador 1 256,7 244,9 Recife 5 321,9 293,0 Manaus 2 694,9 361,7 Belo Horizonte 8 688,1 462,6 São Paulo ,0 489,2 Rio de Janeiro 1 727,9 538,0 TOTAL , ,7

46 PORTS

47 PORTS Complementary investments t to PAC Focus on passengers terminals Host cities with projected deficit in number of beds

48 PORTS EXTENSION AND MODERNIZATION R$5.1 billion Docks, piers, terminals, dredging and land access Debureaucratization of port operations Passengers Terminals for the World Cup 2014 Reduced logistics costs Better operating efficiency on ports Increased competitiveness from the Brazilian exports Encouragement to private investments 48 VENTURES 21 PORTS - R$5.1 billion Ventures Quantity Dredging for Deepening 12 Port Infrastructure 24 Logistics Intelligence 5 Passengers Terminals World Cup

49 PORTS Port Estimated value (R$ Million) Salvador 36,0 Recife 21,8 Natal 53,7 Fortaleza (Mucuripe) 105,9 Project Description To adapt the Warehouse for a Passengers Ferry Terminal, paving / urbanizing the accesses and the parking lot To adapt the Warehouse and to build a new area for a Passengers Ferry Terminal, paving / urbanizing the accesses and the parking lot To adapt the old Fridge and Shed for a Passengers Ferry Terminal, expanding the pier and paving / urbanizing the accesses and the parking lot To build the Passengers Ferry Terminal and pier / cradles, paving / urbanizing the accesses and the parking lot Santos 119,99 To align the pier and to develop an internal access road Rio de Janeiro Manaus 89,4 TOTAL 740,7 314,0 To build three piers To adapt the Warehouses for a Passengers Ferry Terminal, expanding the pier, defenses, urbanizing the parking lot and building a covered pedestrian walkway

50 Brazil PAC s Investment Opportunities ROBERTO GARIBE Special Advisor Staff House of the Presidency of the Republic