Towards 100% renewable electricity in Flanders in 2050? Interpreting the results of different scenario-studies

Transcription

1 Towards 100% renewable electricity in Flanders in 2050? Interpreting the results of different scenario-studies

2 Content Introduction Recent scenario study by SRU Comparing scenarios Scenario work for Flanders Priorities for next 5 to 10 years

3 Energy Roadmap 2050 and Belgium/Flanders The Energy Roadmap 2050 demonstrates ambitious plans in terms of increasing renewable energy use What will the role be of Belgium/Flanders?

4 Current state of affairs Renewable energy target Belgium: 13% RE of gross final energy consumption Own target for RE in electricity sector: 20.9% of gross electricity consumption No differentiation yet of the RE targets between the regions in Belgium No indications yet of long-term (2050) RE target

5 The SRU study

6 SRU study Few (recent) scenario studies available with: Hour based modeling of load and supply Belgium national level data Long-term work to % renewable energy based power sector

7 SRU study - methodology

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9 SRU Study main results 3a scenario Shows that 100% renewable based electricity sector in Europe + North-Africa region is technically and economically feasible Storage and transmission will be crucial Norway will have a unique role due to its hydro power resource Electricity costs will range from 4 to 8 eurocent2009/kwh for 32 (out of 36) countries In most expensive case (Slovakia) costs will be less than 12 eurocent2009/kwh

10 SRU study results Belgium electricity sector 2050 Net electricity demand: 87 TWh (84 TWh in 2010*) Electricity production from RE: 59 TWh (6.2 TWh in 2010**) Total net electricity demand covered by RE: 67% Net import: 33% of total net demand Specific costs electricity: 6.21 eurocent2009 per kwh *Netto stroomverbruik volgens Synergrid (2011) **Uitgaande van 89.6 TWh netto elektriciteitsproductie (Synergrid 2011) en een HE-aandeel van 7% (CREG 2011a)

11 SRU study result Belgium electricity sector 2050 Source: SRU (2011), Wege zur 100% erneuerbaren Stromversorgung, data for Belgium provided by SRU

12 Comparing scenario studies

13 Other recent scenario studies relevant for the electricity sector of Belgium/Flanders Greenpeace (2011), Battle of the grids Federaal Planbureau (2011), Energievooruitzichten voor België tegen 2030 ECF (2010), Roadmap 2050 Eurelectric (2010), Power choices: Pathways to a carbon-neutral electricity in Europe by 2050 Vito (2009), Prognoses voor het hernieuwbare energie en warmtekrachtkoppeling tot 2020 Vlaamse Milieumaatschappij (2009), Milieuverkenning 2030

14 Compare predicted installed capacity Belgium Source: SRU (2011), NREAP België (2010), Greenpeace (2011)

15 Problems comparing scenarios Different time scopes Short-term (2020) Mid-term (2030) Long-term (2050) Different assumptions for: Growth in GDP, Energy intensity, Limitations in use of technologies such as CCS and nuclear power, Allowed net import of electricity (or import outside of Europe), The grid (smart grid, interconnections), Electric cars, Costs RE-technologies and costs of fossil fuels Etc.

16 Example: Costs Investments in renewable energy? Investments in energy sector? Investments in electricity grid Specific costs (eurocent/kwh) Assumptions increase in costs fossil fuels and CO2 prices

17 Flanders

18 Potential RE in Flanders? Bron: cijfers komen GSC statistieken van de VREG PRObis en 2030 EUR cijfers komen uit respectievelijk Vito (2009) en Vlaamse Milieu (2009) SRU cijfers komen uit SRU (2011) waarbij is aangenomen dat Vlaanderen zichzelf 60% van de waardes voor België kan toekennen.

19 100% renewable electricity Flanders? Energy road map different scenarios with x% of fossil, nuclear and renewable based electricity production Several studies on European level show that 100% renewable energy based electricity sector is technically and economically feasible Flanders must create its own roadmap for 2050 to contribute to this vision

20 What needs to be done? Increase the rate of energy efficiency improvement Invest in renewable energy and storage technology research Expansion and adaption of electricity grid Provide information and security to investors/consumers Taken from report from ECF (2011), Roadmap 2050

21 Thank you for your attention Marc Marsidi - Minaraad Marc.marsidi@minaraad.be