SATELLITES TO BE BUILT & LAUNCHED BY 2024

Transcription

1 BROCHURE SATELLITES TO BE BUILT & LAUNCHED BY 2024 World Market Survey The industry s landmark analysis & forecast of satellite manufacturing & launch services worldwide 2015 Edition A Euroconsult Research Report This report, in its 18 th edition, provides an exhaustive analysis of the worldwide satellite demand merging customers, applications & orbits. Customers: Civilian government, military government, commercial companies Applications: Fixed & mobile communications, TV & radio broadcasting, navigation, Earth observation, meteorology, data relay, science, IMINT/ELINT/SIGINT Orbits: LEO, MEO/HEO, GEO, Deep Space 140 satellites with launch mass over 50 kg will be launched on average each year over the next decade for governments and commercial companies. In comparison with last year s forecast, the number of satellites is due to grow more than the market value over the decade. The increase in number of satellites would be significantly higher if two mega-constellation projects for small communications satellites were included in the forecast. The 1,400 satellite count over the decade already includes 350 satellites to be deployed by ten commercial constellations into low or medium Earth orbits for communication or Earth observation. Governments in 60 countries will be responsible for 75% of the $255 billion in revenues expected from the manufacturing and launch of these 1,400 satellites over the next decade. Governments dominate the space industry as established space countries replace and expand their in-orbit satellite systems and more countries acquire their first operational satellite systems, usually for communications & broadcasting or for Earth observation & imagery intelligence. Nearly 90% of the government market will remain concentrated in the ten countries with an established space industry. In the commercial space sector, Euroconsult anticipates a total of 550 satellites to be launched over the decade by 40 companies. Most of these satellites will be for the replacement of the communications capacity currently in orbit. 80% of the commercial space market of remains concentrated in geostationary orbit, the destination of 300+ satellites operated by 30 companies for communications and broadcasting services. The ten commercial constellations to be launched into non-geostationary orbits for communications services and Earth observation imagery should represent a market of $1.3 billion per year on average over the decade.

2 \ ABOUT SATELLITES TO BE BUILT & LAUNCHED BY 2024 ABOUT Satellites to Be Built & Launched by 2024, World Market Survey is a required reading for anyone interested in the business generated by satellite systems and their launches. The report is fully updated, providing all the key figures and analysis needed to understand the global space market, and the future opportunities & challenges. ELEMENTS OF THE REPORT INCLUDE: More than 170 graphs and tables PDF, Excel & PPT Files Profiles of satellite companies 5 comprehensive sections, including satellite backlog & forecast databases KEY TRENDS, DRIVERS & FORECASTS Exclusive 10-year forecasts including breakdown by customer & by orbit, with number & mass of satellites to be manufactured & launched, plus market value (manufacturing & launch services) Review of strategic issues from both supply (industry) & demand (customers) perspectives Detailed demand database for commercial (order book) and government satellites (forecasts) including: application, launch date, launch mass, satellite platform, manufacturer, launch provider WHO WILL BENEFIT FROM THIS REPORT? Satellite & launch vehicle integrators Satellite & launch vehicle parts manufacturers Launch & service providers Banks, investors & insurers Satellite operators Space & other government agencies TRUSTED BY KEY INDUSTRY PLAYERS Admin & Political: European Commission, EUMETSAT, IctQATAR, Industry Canada, Institut d'estudis Espacials De Catalunya, Japanese Office of National Space Policy, Ministère de la Défense - Etat Major de l'armée de l'air, NCRD-Ministry of Science and Technology of Israel Banks: Credit Suisse, Export Development Canada, Goldman Sachs International, HSBC, Morgan Stanley Manufacturers: 3D Plus, Aerojet, Air Liquide, Alcantara Cyclone Space, Alliant Techsystems Inc. (ATK), Arianespace, Ascent Solar Tech, Airbus D&S, Astrotech Corporation, Atmel, Boeing Integrated Defense Systems, Carlisle Interconnect Technologies, China Aerospace Science And Technology Corp., China Great Wall Industry Corporation, Cobham Microwave, COM DEV International Ltd., Comtech EF Data, Dynetics Inc., E2V Technologies, Finmeccanica, Gilat Satellite Networks, Harris Corporation, idirect Technologies, IHI AEROSPACE, ILS, International Rectifier, ISS Reshetnev Company, ITT Corporation, Khrunichev State Research & Production Space Center, Korea Aerospace Industries, L-3 Communications, Lockheed Martin, MDA, Microsemi, Mitsubishi Electric Corporation, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, MT Aerospace, NGC Aerospace, Northrop Grumman Aerospace Systems, OHB-System AG, Orbital Sciences Corporation, Rakon France, Raytheon, Reliance, RSC Rocket Space Corporation Energia, RUAG Schweiz AG, Russian Space Systems(Niir), Rymsa - Radiacion Y Microondas Sa, SAFT, Satrec Initiative, Sea Launch, Smiths Interconnect, SNECMA Groupe SAFRAN Moteurs, Sofradir, Space Flight Services, SpaceX, SSL, STMicroelectronics, Sumitomo Corporation of America, Surrey Satellite Technology Ltd., Tesat-Spacecom, Thales Alenia Space, TMServices, Trak Microwave Limited, Turkish Aerospace Industries, Umicore, United Technologies Corp., Yuzhnoye SDO, Zodiac Data Systems Space Agencies and R&D Centers: AEB, Azercosmos, Brazilian Institute of Aeronautics and Space (IAE), CSA, CAST, CNES, DLR, ESA, INPE, JAXA, KISTEP, KARI, NSO, SANSA, SNSB, Tekes Technology Development Center of Finland, UK Space Agency

3 TABLE OF CONTENTS 01\ STRATEGIC ISSUES AND FORECAST TRENDS IN SATELLITE MANUFACTURING AND LAUNCH SERVICES Three metrics for the space industry in the past decade Over 110 satellites launched in 2014 for a market value of almost $24 billion Uncertainty in launch tempo, a fact of the industry Civilian government agencies drive growth in satellite demand 60% more satellites to be launched by 2024 vs. past decade Mass to orbit due to increase by 34% between the two decades Industry revenues to grow by 21% in the decade Over half of the satellites in LEO, almost half of revenues in GEO MARKET DRIVERS FOR FUTURE SATELLITE DEMAND Satellite systems upstream to provide satellite services downstream > Numerous satellite services provided by three types of satellite owners > Government and commercial satellites supplied by the same industry > Three value chains in commercial satellite services with different maturity > Satellite demand is uncertain in the long term, especially commercial A better CAPEX efficiency of GEO comsats driven by new technology > Technical innovation: An obligation for the industry > High throughput payloads > Flexible payloads > From electric station-keeping to electric orbit raising Small satellites for government missions Private equity funding new constellations in the USA > From large comsat constellations to mega-constellations > First EO constellation in Europe, new projects multiplying in the USA Technical risks also part of the economic equation > Self-insurance for in-orbit risk and low rates for in-orbit insurance > Launch insurance rates decrease and differentiation between vehicles increases > New operational risks emerging with space debris and RF interferences

4 2\ COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT & PERFORMANCE OF MARKET PLAYERS THE SPACE INDUSTRY GLOBALLY THE SATELLITE MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY Consolidation & vertical integration in the supply chain A limited number of experienced satellite integrators Trends in financial performance of the satellite industry > Revenue of the satellite industry increased by $1 billion in 2014 > Different strategies to boost profitability of satellite manufacturing > 22% revenue growth in the satellite manufacturing industry in the decade The GEO communication satellite industry > Incumbent manufacturers of GEO comsat innovate to adapt their products > New manufacturers of GEO comsat serve their government market > Incumbent manufacturers hold 90% of the commercial GEO comsat market > American and European manufacturers compete for high-end GEO satellite systems The non-geo satellite industry > Manufacturing of non-geo satellites still concentrated in North America & Europe > Non-GEO satellite manufacturing developing outside of North America & Europe > A new wave of commercial comsat constellations creating a new market for manufacturers > The first wave of commercial constellations for Earth observation > Smallsat constellation projects attracting new manufacturers Strategic trends impacting the satellite manufacturing industry > Opportunistic partnerships between manufacturers for market access > Competition between manufacturers not just on the product, also technology transfer & financing > PPP and hosted payloads put more risks on the manufacturers > Two external factors acting on the competitiveness: Currency exchange rates & ECA support

5 PROFILES OF 21 SATELLITE COMPANIES > Airbus Defence & Space > Ball Aerospace > Boeing > China Academy of Space Technology > COM DEV > INVAP > Israel Aerospace Industries > ISS Reshetnev > Lockheed Martin > Mitsubishi Electric > NEC > OHB > Orbital ATK > RUAG Space > Satrec Initiative > Sierra Nevada > SSL/MDA > Surrey Satellite Technology Ltd. > Tesat-Spacecom > Turkish Aerospace Industries > Thales Alenia Space THE LAUNCH SERVICE INDUSTRY Structure of the space transportation industry > Existing launch capacity, the result of government demand > Launch prices reflect the balance between supply & demand of capacity > 2014 revenues of the launch industry at $5.5 billion > Revenue growth of the launch industry at 20% over past decade The GEO launch industry > Geostationary orbit by far the largest launch market > Market share on the commercial launch market to GTO > Key issues for launch service providers in GEO The LEO launch industry > Launch into LEO driven by government satellites & commercial satellite constellations > Improved launch capacity into LEO with new vehicles becoming operational > More competition with improved vehicles and new vehicles > Towards dedicated rockets to launch small satellites? Profiles of three commercial launch service providers > Arianespace > ILS > SpaceX

6 03\ COMMERCIAL SATELLITE DEMAND ASSUMPTIONS FOR COMMERCIAL SATELLITE DEMAND > Number of satellites to be launched > Satellite launch mass > Specific prices ($ per kg) DEMAND CONTEXT FOR COMMERCIAL SATELLITES > Four growth drivers for commercial satellite applications > The three orbits are now commercial (GEO, MEO and LEO) > Commercial space is communications satellites in geostationary orbit THE COMMERCIAL MARKET BY APPLICATION > At 50 years, GEO comsat is a mature market driven by the replacement of in-orbit capacity > GEO comsat are unique for broadcasting and broadband communications > Broadcasting remains core business for the operators but challenged by non-linear TV > High throughput satellites (HTS) and HTS payloads to cost-effectively provide broadband communications > Future demand for commercial GEO comsat driven by a double trade-off > Satellite constellations in low Earth orbit (LEO) for narrowband communications > New constellations in LEO and MEO for broadband communications > Earth observation at 17% of commercial space > Sales of satellite imagery still highly concentrated by two companies > Constellations changing the business model of commercial observation of the Earth by satellites? 04\ GOVERNMENT SATELLITE DEMAND ASSUMPTIONS FOR COMMERCIAL SATELLITE DEMAND > Number of satellites to be launched > Satellite launch mass > Specific prices ($ per kg) THE GOVERNMENT MARKET Market hierarchy between customers, applications, regions > Growth in government demand will be driven by civilian satellites > Earth observation dominant for both civilian and military satellites > Asia dominates for civilian satellites and catches up for military satellites > Newcomer space countries at 15% of market value > Satellite manufacturing at three-quarters of government market value Market dynamics by orbit > LEO by far the largest government satellite market > Governments innovate to maximize the benefits of LEO satellite systems > Small satellites in both established and emerging space countries > Government demand for GEO satellites will average 20 units per year > MEO/HEO satellites historically in the U.S. and Russia, now in China > Deep space missions for space science and exploration Market dynamics by application > Communications including military communications > Earth observation and meteorology > Navigation > Space science > Space situation awareness

7 05\ SATELLITE BACKLOG & FORECAST TWO DATABASES EXCLUSIVE TO EUROCONSULT Backlog of 200 commercial satellites under construction, is a complement to the market forecast established by Euroconsult on the number and types of commercial satellites to be manufactured for launch by Euroconsult s forecast of 840 government satellites, , to be launched worldwide, including the nominative satellites (under construction as of January 2014), and those that are planned to be launched by 2024 as a follow-on to existing systems or as new systems. For each satellite, the following information is provided : > Name of the satellite > Year of launch > Name and country of the operator > Application of the satellite > Orbit of the satellite > Satellite manufacturer > Satellite bus > Design lifetime of the satellite > Launch mass of the satellite > Launch service provider > Launch vehicle

8 GRAPHS 1\ STRATEGIC ISSUES AND FORECAST Distribution by client of all satellites launched ( ) Distribution by orbit of commercial satellites ( ) Distribution by orbit of government satellites ( ) Dynamics of satellites market by client ( , forecast to 2024) Satellites launched by year: distribution by client ( , forecast to 2024) Mass of satellites launched by year: distribution by client ( , forecast to 2024) Satellites manufacturing and launch markets: distribution by client ( , forecast to 2024) Satellites launched by year: distribution by orbit ( , forecast to 2024) Mass of satellites launched by year: distribution by orbit ( , forecast to 2024) Satellite manufacturing and launch markets by orbit ( , forecast to 2024) Distribution of the satellite & launch market by orbit Breakdown of satellite manufacturing by orbit and by client Breakdown of launch market by orbit and by client Three distribution of the satellite manufacturing and launch markets ( ) Two ways to anticipate the future Four decades of average launch mass of spacecraft by orbit Trend in launch mass of commercial geo satellites, Two decades of GEO satellite markets distributed by client 2\ COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT & PERFORMANCE OF MARKET PLAYERS Launch and manufacturing markets ( , forecast to 2024) US and European space sales over the past decade ( ) World maps of satellites integrators, avionics suppliers, structural & thermal equipment suppliers, power equipment suppliers, propulsion equipment suppliers, communication payload suppliers, observation/science payload suppliers Growth in GEO comsat mass driven by Western manufacturers Market share for GEO commercial satellite manufacturing ( , forecast to 2024) GEO satellite platforms (excluding Russian-made) Accessibility of the satellite manufacturing market by orbit ( ) Launch rates of GTO-capable commercial launch vehicles ( ) Launch of GTO-capable commercial launch vehicles ( ) Total mass launched for GTO capable vehicles Market share for commercial launch services, all orbits ( , forecast to 2024) Accessibility of the launch market by orbit Distribution by launch vehicle of small satellites launched ( ) Growth in launch mass of GEO satellites launched by Ariane / Proton / EELV / Asian launchers 3\ COMMERCIAL SATELLITE DEMAND Maturity of the commercial geo comsat market ( , forecast to 2024) Change in the commercial definition of GEO comsat market ( , forecast to 2024) Evolution of the three average metrics for GEO comsat ( ) Two decades of cumulated CAPEX for the largest commercial operators ( ) Commercial GEO comsat by application ( , forecast to 2024) : number / mass / manufacturing & launch markets Geo comsats by region of operator ( , forecast to 2024) : number / mass / manufacturing & launch markets Commercial satellites by orbit ( , forecast to 2024) Manufacturing market for commercial satellites by orbit ( , forecast to 2024) Launch market for commercial satellites by orbit ( , forecast to 2024) Distribution by orbit of commercial satellites ( , forecast to 2024) 4\ GOVERNMENT SATELLITE DEMAND World government spending for space ( ) Different phasing for civilian and military satellites ( , forecast to 2024) Number and mass of government satellites : civilian vs. military satellites ( , forecast to 2024) The satellite manufacturing / launch market for government satellites: civilian vs. military satellites ( , forecast to 2024) Government satellites : by application in two decades Mass of government satellites : by application in two decades Manufacturing / launch market of government satellites : by application in two decades Number and mass of civilian government / military satellites : by region of clients in two decades Markets for civilian government / military satellites : by region of clients in two decades Distribution by orbit of government satellites: ( , forecast to 2024 at launch date) Trends in launch mass of government GEO satellites ( ) Number of government satellites launched per year : by orbit ( , forecast to 2024) Mass of government satellites launched per year: by orbit ( , forecast to 2024) Manufacturing / launch market of government satellites: by orbit ( , forecast to 2024) Trends in launch mass of civilian LEO satellites ( ) / MEO / HEO satellites ( )

9 EUROCONSULT THOUGHT LEADERSHIP \ Over 30 Years of expertise in space markets Euroconsult is the leading global consulting firm specializing in space markets. As a privately-owned, fully independent firm, we provide first-class strategic consulting, develop comprehensive research, and organize executive-level annual summits for the satellite industry. With 30 years of experience, Euroconsult is trusted by 600 clients in over 50 countries. We rely on a multi-cultural team of over 30 full-time experts based in France, the U.S., Canada & Japan. EUROCONSULT RESEARCH Over the past 30 years, Euroconsult has maintained an unparalleled expertise in assessing trends in the satellite industry. We collect, update and assess on a yearly basis detailed market, industry, policy, program and financial information for the international space sector. We have developed proprietary databases and forecast models that are systematically applied and are central to the publication of thematic research reports. The consistency of the approach is an essential quality trusted by leading space organizations that are regular users over the years. Euroconsult research focuses on the assessment of the satellite industry including its structure, market players, revenues and dynamics. Research reports include long-term trends, programmatic and economic benchmarking, upto-date information, and ten year forecasts supported by key ratios. With research published on an annual and biennial basis, these surveys have been used as reference tools by most public and private stakeholders involved in the satellite sector. Satellite manufacturing Launch services Government programs & policies Satellite communications Earth observation Digital broadcasting Satellite applications, services and more... We are trusted experts in the satellite industry, advising the world s leading businesses and governments. OTHER SPACE RESEARCH PROVIDED BY EUROCONSULT Visit our Online Store at Euroconsult-ec.com\Shop Satellite -Based Earth Observation: Market Prospects to 2024, 2015 Edition Profiles of Government Space Programs: Analysis of over 80 Countries & Agencies, 2015 Edition Government Space Programs: Strategic Outlook, Benchmarks & Forecasts by 2024, 2015 Edition

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