Overview, Table of Contents, Index of Exhibits

Transcription

1 2014 The Authoritative Guide to Global Space Activity Overview, Table of Contents, Index of Exhibits

2 OVERVIEW The dynamic nature of the universe is on display in this Hubble Chandra composite image. Galaxy ESO appears to be leaking its gas through a process called ram pressure stripping as it plunges through the Norma galaxy cluster. Credit: NASA, ESA, and the Hubble Heritage Team (STScI/AURA)

3 Overview Introduction The past year has seen substantial growth in space technology and capabilities. A vibrant commercial sector has led the way with compelling products that provide significant value to customers around the globe. Despite budget constraints in some countries, governments have continued to invest heavily in space agencies, exploration programs, and the further development of commercial capabilities. Interest in the space industry has increased and has created a surge of young excited talent, providing the building blocks for future success. Venture capital firms and other investors are demonstrating interest in the potential of space to introduce world-changing technologies. For all of these reasons, the outlook for the space sector is very bright in the years to come. 1.0 Space Products and Services Space products and services continue to become more readily available and integrated into daily life for billions of people. Some technologies rely on space assets to deliver their benefits, such as communication or navigation devices, whereas other technologies can claim a space heritage but have been spun off and no longer require space systems in order to function properly. Across the many fields of activity that benefit from space technology, a common theme is emerging. Customers are demanding, and receiving, greater control over the way they interact with space products and services. This shift in power is not unique to the space industry it is a fundamental change that is happening across multiple technology markets. The ability to exercise a greater element of control and input, and to create interfaces between space and other forms of information technology, will both improve the adoption rate of space technology and provide space companies with a wealth of data on where to focus their efforts. EXHIBIT 1. Global Space Activity, 2013 $41.26 B (13%) $32.84 B (11%) $ B (37%) $ B (39%) Commercial Space Products and Services Commercial Infrastructure and Support Industries U.S. Government Space Budgets Non-U.S. Government Space Budgets Another way the public is interacting with the space community is through government- or industrysponsored competitions to develop new applications. By harnessing the talent from a broader community, the space industry gains creative new techniques that it can use and potential goods and services that it can provide based on existing space systems. Regardless of whether insight is gained from competitions or ongoing interactions with current customers, the companies that are most likely to be successful in the long term are those that are responsive to their customers needs and desire for increasingly integrated technologies. Total: $ Billion Space Foundation 2.0 The Space Economy The global space economy grew by 4% in 2013, reaching a new record of $ billion. The majority of this growth, both in absolute terms and as a percentage, took place on the commercial side of the economy. Commercial products, services, infrastructure, and support industries all add up to slightly more than three-quarters of the space economy, with government spending constituting the remainder. Overall government spending declined by 1.7% in 2013, as significant cuts in the U.S. space budget were only partly offset by growth in the space budgets of other countries. Merger and acquisition (M&A) activity declined in 2013, with 24 space-related transactions compared to 30 in This change was in line with global defense M&A trends, as companies exercised caution in response to uncertainty 4 The Space Report 2014

4 Overview in government budgets for aerospace and defense activities. As uncertainty begins to recede in the United States and elsewhere, and as global demand for satellite services continues to increase, it is likely that M&A activity will rise again in the near future. Investor confidence in the outlook for publicly traded space companies is evidenced by the robust performance of the Space Foundation Indexes in The indexes track the performance of space stocks listed on U.S. exchanges, and they experienced gains for the year of 34 48%, which compares favorably to 30% for the S&P 500 and 38% for the NASDAQ. EXHIBIT 2. Space Foundation Indexes Performance vs. Other Market Indexes, Index Value (12/31/12 = Base 100) Space Foundation Index Space Foundation Infrastructure Index Space Foundation Services Index NASDAQ Composite S&P Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Daily Closing Value Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Space Foundation 3.0 Space Infrastructure The majority of the 81 launch attempts in 2013 were conducted by Russia, the United States, China, and Europe. This level of activity was slightly higher than the average rate of 79 launches per year for the past five years. New launch vehicles made their first flights (or first successful flights) in five countries the Antares and Minotaur V in the United States, Soyuz 2.1v in Russia, Kuaizhou in China, Epsilon in Japan, and KSLV-1 (also called Naro-1) in Korea. The number of satellites launched to orbit in 2013 increased by nearly two-thirds compared to This was largely due to a significant uptick in the number of satellites with masses below 91 kilograms (200 pounds). These microsatellites constituted more than half of the 197 satellites launched in Many of the microsatellites were short-lived technology demonstrations, but there is a considerable degree of interest in future possibilities for constellations of small satellites that provide valuable services on an ongoing basis. Downward pressure on launch prices and cost-saving advances in satellite technology have combined to open the door for small and midsize space companies to enter the market, providing new niche services and solutions to a growing number of customers. These companies are well-positioned to serve the increasing demand for bandwidth and services across regions that expect to see large population growth, such as Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. In some cases, smaller companies will compete directly with existing large service providers, while in other cases they will The Authoritative Guide to Global Space Activity 5

5 Overview form partnerships or be acquired. The incumbents have also noted the trend in demand and are responding to the shift in value away from infrastructure and networks and toward user equipment and content. This focus on the end-user experience will be a major market driver in the years to come. 4.0 Workforce and Education Workforce trends in different countries varied significantly, as the U.S. space workforce contracted for the sixth year in a row, in contrast with growth in Europe and Japan. The hundreds of thousands of skilled employees who make up the space workforce continue to be drawn from a pool of highly skilled individuals who frequently have advanced levels of education and training in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM). In the United States, the space workforce declined by 3.5% from 2011 to 2012, the most recent year for which data is available. Several factors likely contributed to this change, including the end of the Space Shuttle Program in 2011, post-recession tightening of budgets, and uncertainty about future federal funding for space projects. At the government level, NASA faces challenges related to an aging workforce, which the agency is working to address by recruiting more young workers. These efforts have been successful to the extent that the number of workers under the age of 35 is on the rise. However, as of the start of fiscal year 2014, the number of NASA employees eligible to retire at any moment was greater than the number of employees under 35. Although detailed demographic information on the U.S. national security space workforce is unavailable, it is possible that there are similar issues with aging, as more than 30% of the broader Department of Defense civilian STEM workforce was eligible for retirement as of September In Europe, space industry employment increased in 2012 for the seventh consecutive year, with growth of 1.5%. The European workforce is concentrated in five countries France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, and Spain which collectively account for more than 85% of European space employees. The Japanese industry workforce grew by 11% in 2012, continuing its multiyear growth from a low point in A different trend can be seen at the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), which has shed nearly 15% of its workforce over the past 10 years. However, JAXA has a healthy demographic profile that bodes well for the future, with only 14% of its workforce over the age of 54 and 22% under Perspective In a future market with more players and lower barriers to entry, technology advancement is opening a larger number of applications in space. The space industry is evolving rapidly to take advantage of the opportunities presented in multiple sectors. Rather than undercutting each other by competing on price alone, space companies are emphasizing the creation of new forms of value for their customers. By differentiating the services that are offered, and focusing on the unique benefits that space systems provide, the industry has found ways to meet the challenges presented by terrestrial service providers that are edging in on some markets that have been traditionally dominated by space. As governments look to the future of space exploration, a variety of policy discussions are looming with regard to human and robotic activities. Critical decisions regarding the International Space Station and other human spaceflight programs are expected to be made in the next year or two, potentially shaping the path of exploration for decades to come. The environment for robotic exploration is also in a state of flux, as emerging space powers such as India transition away from a pure domestic focus to one that encompasses missions to Mars and other distant destinations. Interest in space activity is expanding to levels of government below the national level, as states and regions within countries seek to expand their space industries and develop solutions specific to local needs. The investments in economic development agencies and space applications provide yet another illustration of the increasing accessibility and desirability of space. When viewed in combination with the customer-oriented actions of the commercial sector, it is clear that space is no longer the domain of a select few space is for everyone. 6 The Space Report 2014

6 Table of Contents Overview The Authoritative Guide to Global Space Activity Copyright 2014 Space Foundation All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. No part of this book may be reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical articles and reviews. For more information, please contact: Space Foundation 4425 Arrowswest Drive Colorado Springs, CO N. Fort Myer Drive, Suite 910 Arlington, VA All images used in this publication are property of their respective owners. 1.0 Space Products and Services Introduction The Mars Rover Programs, Benefiting Life on Earth How Space Products and Services are Used Collaboration Between Space Agencies and the Public The Space Economy Introduction Commercial Infrastructure and Support Industries Commercial Space Products and Services Government Space Budgets Summary of Data Space Investment Outlook Space Foundation Indexes Overview Space Infrastructure Introduction Orbital Human Spaceflight Systems Launch Vehicles Space Stations Satellites Ground Facilities Space Science Systems Workforce and Education Introduction U.S. Space Workforce European Space Workforce Japanese Space Workforce Other Space Employment Global Space-Related Education Trends Perspective Introduction An Evolving Space Industry: Commoditization, Differentiation, and the Rise of Regional Operators Changing Context in Government Space Programs: National, Regional, and Local Conclusion Authors and Contributors Endnotes Index of Exhibits A Snapshot: The Global Space Economy in ISBN-13: ISBN-10:

7 Index of Exhibits Overview 4 EXHIBIT 1. Global Space Activity, EXHIBIT 2. Space Foundation Indexes Performance vs. Other Market Indexes, Space Products and Services 8 EXHIBIT 1a. Topics Covered in Space Products and Services 10 EXHIBIT 1b. Overview of Space Activity, EXHIBIT 1c. Selected NASA and ESA Spinoffs, EXHIBIT 1d. Top 10 Uses for Landsat Data During October EXHIBIT 1e. Space Hackathon Events, The Space Economy 24 EXHIBIT 2a. Topics Covered in The Space Economy 24 EXHIBIT 2b. The Global Space Economy 24 EXHIBIT 2c. Global Space Activity, EXHIBIT 2d. Revenues for Space Infrastructure, EXHIBIT 2e. Orbital Launch Attempts, EXHIBIT 2f. Satellite Manufacturing Revenue Estimates, EXHIBIT 2g. NASA Commercial Crew Funding 29 EXHIBIT 2h. Space Insurance Industry Estimates, EXHIBIT 2i. Revenues for Commercial Space Products and Services, EXHIBIT 2j. North American Direct-to-Home Television Revenue, EXHIBIT 2k. Earth Observation Revenue Estimates, EXHIBIT 2l. European Satellite Navigation Competition Special Award Winners, EXHIBIT 2m. Government Space Budgets, EXHIBIT 2n. Government Space Budget Growth, EXHIBIT 2o. U.S. Government Agency Space Budgets, EXHIBIT 2p. NASA Fiscal Year 2015 Budget Request 40 EXHIBIT 2q. Funding for Major U.S. National Security Space Programs, Fiscal Years EXHIBIT 2r. Canadian Space Agency Spending Profile by Program Activity 44 EXHIBIT 2s. Space Spending as a Percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Selected Countries 45 EXHIBIT 2t. Budget Transfers Among EC, EUMETSAT, and ESA 46 EXHIBIT 2u. Member States Contributions to the European Space Agency, EXHIBIT 2v. Comparison of ESA Contributions vs. National-only Expenditures, EXHIBIT 2w. European Space Agency Budget by Program, EXHIBIT 2x. CNES Planned Spending by Program Area, 2013 and EXHIBIT 2y. Italian Planned Space Spending by Program, National Only 51 EXHIBIT 2z. Indian Space Budgets 52 EXHIBIT 2aa. Japanese Space Spending by Agency, FY 2012 FY EXHIBIT 2bb. South Korean Planned Space Spending, by Program, EXHIBIT 2cc. Space Budgets of Selected Emerging Countries, EXHIBIT 2dd. Global Space Activity Revenues and Budgets, EXHIBIT 2ee. Space-Related Transactions in 2013, Chronological Order by Announcement Date 59 EXHIBIT 2ff. Space Foundation Index vs. Other Market Indexes 60 EXHIBIT 2gg. Space Foundation Indexes vs. Other Market Indexes 61 EXHIBIT 2hh. Space Foundation Indexes Performance vs. Other Market Indexes, EXHIBIT 2ii. Space Foundation Index Returns vs. Benchmarks 62 EXHIBIT 2jj. Space Foundation Infrastructure Index Returns vs. Benchmarks 63 EXHIBIT 2kk. Space Foundation Services Index Returns vs. Benchmarks 64 EXHIBIT 2ll. Composition of the Space Foundation Indexes for Space Infrastructure 66 EXHIBIT 3a. Topics Covered in Space Infrastructure 69 EXHIBIT 3b. Milestones in Chinese Human Spaceflight 70 EXHIBIT 3c. Commercial Satellite and Launch Forecasts, EXHIBIT 3d. Geosynchronous (GSO) and Non-geosynchronous (NGSO) Historical Commercial Launches and Launch Forecast, EXHIBIT 3e. U.S. Orbital Launches, EXHIBIT 3f. Russian Orbital Launches, EXHIBIT 3g. Predicted Angara Performance 74 EXHIBIT 3h. Chinese Orbital Launches, EXHIBIT 3i. Other Orbital Launches, EXHIBIT 3j. Number of Launches Attempted and Payload Mass Aboard Attempted Launches, EXHIBIT 3k. Space Stations 81 EXHIBIT 3l. Satellites Successfully Launched by Mission Type, EXHIBIT 3m. Payloads Successfully Launched by Mass Classification, The Space Report 2014

8 Index of Exhibits 82 EXHIBIT 3n. Applications of Satellite Systems 82 EXHIBIT 3o. GEO Commercial Communications Satellite Capacity Launched, (As of November 12, 2013) 83 EXHIBIT 3p. Top 25 Fixed Satellite Services Operators by Revenue, EXHIBIT 3q. Mobile Satellite Services Operators, EXHIBIT 3r. Positioning, Navigation, and Timing Systems, December EXHIBIT 3s. The Planned Series of Sentinel Satellites 93 EXHIBIT 3t. Civilian Weather Satellites 98 EXHIBIT 3u. Spaceports in Operation or Development, Workforce and Education 102 EXHIBIT 4a. Topics Covered in Workforce and Education 102 EXHIBIT 4b. Space Workforce Trends in the United States, Europe, and Japan 103 EXHIBIT 4c. Number of U.S. Space Employees at Selected Companies 103 EXHIBIT 4d. U.S. Space Industry Employment by Sector, 2002, 2007, 2011, and EXHIBIT 4e. U.S. Space Industry Core Employment, EXHIBIT 4f. U.S. Space Industry Workforce and U.S. Total Workforce, EXHIBIT 4g. U.S. Space Industry Salaries and Real Salary Growth by Sector, EXHIBIT 4h. Top Five States by Space Industry Average Annual Salary, EXHIBIT 4i. NASA Civil Servant Workforce, FY EXHIBIT 4j. NASA Civil Servant Workforce Age Profiles Over Time 107 EXHIBIT 4k. NASA Net Accessions (Number of Individuals Hired Minus Number Lost) by Age and Percentage Change in NASA Workforce, FY EXHIBIT 4l. NASA Civil Servant Workforce Demographics, Start of FY EXHIBIT 4m. U.S. Military and Intelligence Space Workforce, EXHIBIT 4n. U.S. Space-Related Occupations and Projected Growth Rates 110 EXHIBIT 4o. European Space Industry Employment, EXHIBIT 4p. European Space Industry Employment by Sector, EXHIBIT 4q. European Space Industry Employment by Country, EXHIBIT 4r. European Space Workforce Demographics, EXHIBIT 4s. ESA Workforce Demographics, EXHIBIT 4t. Japanese Space Industry Employment, EXHIBIT 4u. Japanese Space Industry Employment by Sector, EXHIBIT 4v. JAXA Workforce, EXHIBIT 4w. JAXA Space Workforce Demographics, EXHIBIT 4x. Global Space Agency Employment, EXHIBIT 4y. Percentage of Students at Key Levels of Proficiency, PISA EXHIBIT 4z. Average PISA Mathematics and Science Scores and Gender Differences in Selected Countries, EXHIBIT 4aa. Percentage of Eighth Grade Students Meeting TIMSS 2011 International Benchmarks, Selected Countries 115 EXHIBIT 4bb. Average TIMSS Eighth Grade Mathematics and Science Scores in Selected Countries, EXHIBIT 4cc. TIMSS Scores and Percentage of Eighth Grade Students Meeting Advanced Benchmark 116 EXHIBIT 4dd. NAEP 2011 Math and Science Performance by Race 116 EXHIBIT 4ee. Entry Rates in Tertiary Education by Gender and Field of Education, EXHIBIT 4ff. STEM First-Degree Graduates by Country, EXHIBIT 4gg. Percentage of Overall and STEM First Degrees Earned by Women, EXHIBIT 4hh. STEM Doctoral Graduates by Country, EXHIBIT 4ii. U.S. Science and Engineering Bachelor s, Master s, and Doctoral Degrees, EXHIBIT 4jj. Percentage of All Degrees and STEM Degrees Earned by Women, 1966 and EXHIBIT 4kk. Aeronautical and Astronautical Engineering Bachelor s, Master s, and Doctoral Degrees, Perspective 122 EXHIBIT 5a. Topics Covered in Perspective 122 EXHIBIT 5b. Topics Related to an Evolving Space Industry 123 EXHIBIT 5c. Stages of Industry Commoditization 124 EXHIBIT 5d. Deployment of High Throughput Satellite (HTS) and Non-HTS Capacity, EXHIBIT 5e. Installed Base of GNSS Devices by Region 126 EXHIBIT 5f. Price Trends in Commercial Satellite Imagery, EXHIBIT 5g. Approximate Average Commercial Launch Price 128 EXHIBIT 5h. Cumulative Number of Nations Operating or Manufacturing First Satellites 133 EXHIBIT 5i. Topics Related to a Changing Context in Government Space Programs 133 EXHIBIT 5j. International Space Exploration Common Goals and Objectives 135 EXHIBIT 5k. Countries that have Participated in ISS Research and Education Activities 137 EXHIBIT 5l. Planned Robotic Missions to Future Human Destinations by GER Participants 142 EXHIBIT 5m. NASA Contract Spending by State, Fiscal Year EXHIBIT 5n. Potential State-level Impacts of Reductions in NASA Spending 143 EXHIBIT 5o. State-level Space Development Agencies 145 EXHIBIT 5p. Indian State-sponsored Space Application Centers The Authoritative Guide to Global Space Activity 159