Downstream Economics - Finance & Management

Transcription

1 - Finance & Management

2 ...p. 47 to 56 Finance & Management...p. 57 to 59

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4 EAV / PERO Planning and Economics of Refinery Operations In collaboration with the Energy Institute, London To enable delegates to understand the essential elements of refinery operations and investment economics, to review the various parameters which affect refinery profitability and to develop a working knowledge of the management tools used in the refining industry. Technical, operating and engineering personnel working in the refining industry, trading and commercial specialists, independent consultants, process licensors, catalyst manufacturers and refining subcontractors. participants will be able: --to assess the latest trends in product specifications, and refining schemes --to calculate product value, refinery margins and process unit margins --to simulate and to optimize refinery operations, crude oil selection and product manufacturing --to analyze the results of an linear programming model optimization --to evaluate the profitability of a new process unit --Case studies and exercises derived from present refinery situations. --Economic optimization using Excel. --Quiz. Technical overview Brief technical presentation of the main refining units: distillation, conversion, etc. Refinery scheme evolution. Refining industry World petroleum product demand and evolution of the crude oil supply. Refining supply: overcapacity, types and quantity. Main challenges: deep conversion, new product specifications, petrochemical integration, environment, etc. Projects and perspectives. Refinery margins and costs Refinery margins and costs: definitions and evolution worldwide. Unit margins and intermediate product valuation. Case studies: crude oil arbitrage, Fluid Catalytic Cracking (FCC) unit margin. Refinery blending simulation Case study: managing the blending operation of a refinery taking into account the economic and technical (product specifications, capacities, etc.) constraints. Optimization of refining operations Linear programming Linear programming (LP) principles: linear equation, objective function, profit maximization or cost minimization, Simplex method, graphic interpretation, etc. Analysis of the LP results: optimum properties, marginal costs, domain of validity of the results, etc. Case study on Excel: explanation of a refinery model matrix (material balances, product specifications, utilities consumption, objective function, etc.); team work on the optimization of a cracking refinery and on the result analysis. Investment profitability studies Value creation and capital cost, cash flows, discounting principle and inflation impact. Standard global profitability analysis: cash flow schedule, economic criteria (net present value, internal rate of return, etc.). Introduction to risk analysis. Exercises on various investment profitability studies for refineries and petrochemical plants. 4 Days 0.75 d - Finance & Management Coordinator: Mélissa Clodic EN Oct London 3,200 EM [email protected] Refining & Chemicals 47

5 EAV / ROM Refinery Operation Management and Linear Programming 5 Days To provide an in-depth understanding of the techniques used for decision making operations concerning supply and refining. Managerial staff, supply planners, oil economists and personnel in charge of supply, planning, programs and product blending. participants will be able: --to optimize refinery operations, crude oil selection and crude oil selection --to analyze the results of a linear programming model optimization --to help optimizing a planning, from preparation of optimal monthly programs up to daily operation scheduling --Case studies and exercises derived from present refinery situations. --Economic optimization using Excel software and the solver. --Quiz. Oil markets and trading Oil supply and demand fundamentals and evolution. Petroleum physical trading (spot, forward). Crude oil and petroleum product pricing: benchmark, quality differential, etc. Financial trading (futures) and hedging strategies for a refiner. Refining context World petroleum product demand. Refining supply: overcapacity, types and quantity. Main challenges: deep conversion, new product specifications, petrochemical integration, environment, etc. Projects and perspectives. Refining margins and costs Refinery margins and costs: definitions and evolution worldwide. Unit margins and intermediate product valuation. Case studies: crude oil arbitrage, Fluid Catalytic Cracking (FCC) unit margin. Optimization of refining operations Linear programming Linear programming (LP) principles: linear equation, objective function, profit maximization or cost minimization, Simplex method, graphic interpretation, etc. Analysis of the LP results: optimum properties, marginal costs, domain of validity of the results, etc. Case study on Excel: parametrization and preparation of a refinery model matrix (material balances, product specifications, utilities consumption, objective function, etc.); team work on the optimization of a cracking refinery and on the result analysis. Optimization of refinery operations Scheduling Principles of refining management: constraints, operations organization. Monthly program to daily operations. Optimization of margins from different process units. Case study: management of typical sequential constraints (delays, processing problems, etc.) d 2.5 d Coordinator: Mélissa Clodic EN Nov Rueil 2,970 EM [email protected] 48 Refining & Chemicals

6 EAV / EFR EAV / CER Economic Framework of Refining Level: Foundation To enable delegates to get a grasp of all the fundamental aspects and challenges of the economic framework in which the refining industry is evolving Technical, operating and engineering personnel working in the refining industry, trading and commercial specialists, independent consultants, process licensors, catalyst manufacturers and refining subcontractors participants will be able: --to calculate product marginal value, refinery margins and process unit margins --to identify cost savings in order to improve margins --to simulate refinery operations and product blending --to simulate and to optimize refinery operations, crude oil selection and product manufacturing --to analyze the result of an linear programming model optimization --to do project profitability evaluation --Case studies and exercises derived from present refinery situations. --Economic optimization using Excel. --Quiz. Technical overview Brief technical presentation of the main refining units: distillation, conversion, blending, etc. Refinery scheme evolution. Oil markets and trading Oil supply and demand fundamentals and evolution. Petroleum physical trading (spot, forward). Crude oil and petroleum product pricing: benchmark, quality differential, etc. Financial trading (futures) and hedging strategies for a refiner. Refining context World petroleum product demand. Refining supply: overcapacity, types and quantity. Main challenges: deep conversion, new product specifications, petrochemical integration, environment, etc. Projects and perspectives. Refining margins and costs Refinery margins and costs: definitions and evolution worldwide. Unit margins and intermediate product valuation. Case studies: crude oil arbitrage, Fluid Catalytic Cracking (FCC) unit margin. Refinery blending simulation Case study: managing the blending operation of a refinery taking into account the economic and technical (product specifications, capacities, etc.) constraints. Optimization of refining operations Linear programming Linear programming (LP) principles: linear equation, objective function, profit maximization or cost minimization, Simplex method, graphic interpretation, etc. Analysis of the LP results: optimum properties, marginal costs, domain of validity of the results, etc. Case study on Excel: explanation of a refinery model matrix (material balances, product specifications, utilities consumption, objective function, etc.); team work on the optimization of a cracking refinery and on the result analysis. Optimization of refinery operations Scheduling Principles of refining management: constraints, operational organization. Monthly program to daily operations. Optimization of margins from different process units. Case study: management of typical sequential constraints (delays, processing problems, etc.). 5 Days - Finance & Management Investment profitability studies Value creation and capital cost, cash flows, discounting principle and inflation impact. Standard global profitability analysis: cash flow schedule, economic criteria (net present value, internal rate of return, etc.). Introduction to risk analysis. Exercises on various investment profitability studies for refineries and petrochemical plants. Coordinator: Mélissa Clodic EN May Rueil 2,910 EM [email protected] Refining & Chemicals 49

7 EAV / PUM EAV / VPA Process Units Margin Calculations (Intermediate products valuation) 2 Days To provide an in-depth understanding of the unit margin calculation, through the valuation of the intermediate products which feed or are produced by the unit. Managerial staff involved in technical operation, process, R&D or economic matters. On completion of the course, the participants will be able: --to estimate the economic value of different intermediate products --to manage the linear programming models as a user: result analysis, limits --to analyze refining margins --to use the refining margin indexes as main indicators of the refining margin trends in a dedicated region Prerequisite Basic knowledge on refining units and petroleum products. Technical overview Brief technical presentation of the main refining units: distillation, conversion, etc. Refinery scheme evolution. Refining margin and costs Refinery margins and costs: definition and evolution. Break-even point. Case study: crude oil arbitrage. Intermediate product valuation Intermediate product valuation methods for unit margin calculation. Introduction of the notion of constraint cost. Valuation of a product: linked to its usage and to the economic context. Added-value or penalty linked to different manufacturing processes. Various exercises and case studies: butane valuation in the gasoline pool, light cycle oil (LCO) valuation in different diluents, vacuum residue valuation in different diluents and economic context, visbreaking unit margin, etc. 1.5 d --Case studies and exercises derived from present refinery situations. --Quiz. Coordinator: Mélissa Clodic EN Jun Rueil 1,580 EM [email protected] 50 Refining & Chemicals

8 EAV / LPP EAV / PPL Linear Programming Practice for Refinery Optimization To provide an in-depth understanding of the techniques used for decision making operations concerning supply and refining. Managerial staff, supply planners, oil economists and personnel in charge of supply, planning, programs and product blending. On completion of the course, the participants will be able: --to acquire a working knowledge of refinery economic optimization; operating conditions, feedstock and be able to evaluate the extent of the validity and limits of the different approaches --to analyze all results interpretation and what benefit they can obtain for the economic optimization of their refinery --to understand the principles of refining management: constraints and operations organization Linear programming principle Linear equations, matrix preparation Objective function, profit maximization or cost minimization Optimization of refinery operations: Simplex method, graphic interpretation Linear programming result analysis Optimum properties, domain of validity of the results, marginal costs Sensitivity analysis Introduction to linear programming practice Case study: parametrization and preparation of a refinery model matrix (material balances, product specifications, utilities consumption, objective function, etc.); team work on the optimization of a cracking refinery and on the result analysis (unit debottlenecking option, etc.) 2 Days - Finance & Management Prerequisite Basic knowledge on refining units and petroleum products. --Case study derived from present refinery situations. --Economic optimization using Excel. --Quiz. Coordinator: Mélissa Clodic EN Dec Rueil 1,310 EM [email protected] Refining & Chemicals 51

9 EAV / REO EAV / OER Economic Optimization of Refining Operations 5 Days To allow the participants to acquire the main economic challenges of the running of a refinery and to understand the oil markets (crude oil and petroleum products) in order to optimize refining operations. Engineers, independent consultants, subcontractors or managers from refining who need a better understanding of operation optimization. participants will be able: --to understand the economic issues and the main parameters influencing refining profitability --to develop a working knowledge of management tools and models used in the industry --to get a grasp of the input/output balances of the refining industry --to calculate product value (intermediate, semi-finished or finished products), refinery margins and process unit margins; how cost and margins compare; how to simulate refinery operations and product blending --to understand and analyze the refining margin from an operational point of view, considering the contribution of each unit operation --to understand the notion of break-even point (as an evaluation tool for assessing the resilience of a refinery to economic changes) --to comprehend ways to optimize refinery operations, crude oil selection and product manufacturing, in order to improve profitability --to gain a working knowledge in decision-making regarding future investments --to better understand and use the various elements that contribute to refining margin improvement, such that: blending optimization, energy optimization, maintenance management, inventory management, analysis, performance monitoring,... Technical overview Petroleum demand. Crude oils - Qualities and characteristics. Petroleum products - Characteristics and specifications. Refining schemes and processes. Price constitution of crude oils and petroleum products The different types of crude oils and their interactions. Notions of incoterms (FOB, CIF ). Price determination from reporting agencies (e.g.: Platt s and Argus). Refining margins and costs Definitions. Different types of margins and indicators. Principle of estimation of the real margin in a refinery from the reference indicator. Refining variable and fixed costs. Definitions and principle of a refinery break-even point. Refining management items Economic impact of unit yields. Product valorization challenges. Notion of constraint cost. The use value of intermediate, semi-finished and finished products. Examples. Value and simulation of intermediate and semi-finished products Value of a product depending on its use and the economic context. Notion of marginal cost, netback value. Capital gain or loss of separation, product blending or transformation operations; examples. Case study of the premium straight-run for atmospheric residues. How to improve the refining margin daily? Blending optimization. Energy integration, maintenance management. Monitoring and control of consumption (energy, chemicals, catalysts) and losses. Inventory management, working inventory. Organization, reactivity, employees training. Implementation analysis and performance monitoring tools (KPI: Key Performance Indicators),... Optimization of the feedstocks Key criteria Crude oil case study: tools and models used, basic knowledge of linear programming. Case study d --Case studies. --Example cost of give-away. --Calculation of a working inventory. Coordinator: Lucien Guez EN Dec Rueil 2,970 EM [email protected] 52 Refining & Chemicals

10 EAV / EFP EAV / CEP Economic Framework of Petrochemicals Level: Foundation To provide an in-depth understanding of the fundamental aspects and challenges of the petrochemicals industry Professionals in petrochemicals who want to develop a better understanding of the petrochemical industry and its economic aspects Managerial staff involved in manufacturing, marketing, logistics, business development in the petrochemical industry participants will be able: --to evaluate the petrochemical environment, and the different interfaces between petrochemicals and refining --to get a grasp of the fundamental market trends of the industry --to simulate and to optimize petrochemical operations --to analyze the result of an linear programming model optimization --to do project profitability evaluation --Case studies and exercises derived from present refinery situations. --Economic optimization using Excel. --Quiz. Introduction to the petrochemical industry World context of the petrochemicals sector. Main characteristics of petrochemical businesses. Petrochemical chains and economic perspectives. Economic impact of refining integration. Steam cracker economics. Case studies: effect of feedstock on olefins manufacturing costs, economic impact of refinery-petrochemical manufacturing complex integration. Olefins and derivatives market Technical review, main actors and markets. Capacities and new investments in Asia or for Asia. Main challenges: increase of the world ethylene production, new technologies of propylene production, etc. C4 cut and aromatics markets Technical review, main actors and markets. Capacities and new investments. Markets: benzene, toluene, xylenes, derivatives. Economic aspects of benzene-styrene-polystyrene trends. Main polymers Technical review, main actors and markets. Capacities and new investments. Main markets trends. Optimization of refining operations Linear programming Linear programming (LP) principles: linear equation, objective function, profit maximization or cost minimization, Simplex method, graphic interpretation, etc. Analysis of the LP results: optimum properties, marginal costs, domain of validity of the results, etc. Case study on Excel: explanation of a petrochemical model matrix (material balances, utilities consumption, objective function, etc.); team work on the optimization of a petrochemical complex. 4 Days - Finance & Management Investment profitability studies Value creation and capital cost, cash flows, discounting principle and inflation impact. Standard global profitability analysis: cash flow schedule, economic criteria (net present value, internal rate of return, etc.). Introduction to risk analysis. Case study: investment profitability of petrochemical plants. Coordinator: Mélissa Clodic EN Oct Rueil 2,330 EM [email protected] Refining & Chemicals 53

11 EAV / SRP EAV / IRP NEW Refining-Petrochemicals Synergies 2 Days Review of the pain refining and petrochemical specificities, identification of the possible synergies and highlight the economic gains achievable from refining-petrochemicals integration. Staff from refining and petrochemistry involved in production, planning, procurement, marketing, management control and investment. the participants will be able: --to describe the main specificities of the refining and petrochemical sectors --to identify the possible synergies between refining and petrochemistry --to explain the economic challenges and the main factors of these sectors profitability --to analyze the effects of these synergies --Quiz, examples. --Case studies and exercices in team work. Technical review of refining and petrochemistry Main petroleum and petrochemical products: key product specifications review. Refining and petrochemical schemes. HSE specifications: refining (H 2 S, etc.), petrochemicals (product instability, etc.). Synergies between refining and petrochemistry Utility exchanges: H 2, gas, fuel. Supply: ethane, LPG, naphtha, atmospheric gasoil, vacuum distillate. Product exchanges: pyrolysis gasoline, olefins. Common treatment of the C4 cuts: BTX (Benzene-Toluene-Xylene) extraction. Pooling services. Refining and petrochemicals economics Refining and petrochemical margins and costs. Location and unit severities effects. Gains due to synergies. Case study: economics of a refinery, of a steam cracker and of the integration of both (with some synergies). Coordinator: Mélissa Clodic EN Nov Rueil 1,380 EM [email protected] 54 Refining & Chemicals

12 EAV / PDP EAV / PPA Profitability Analysis of Downstream Investment Projects To provide an in-depth understanding of the concepts behind the theory of capital budgeting and thus improve the analysis in investment profitability studies. Managers and staff concerned with decision affecting medium and long term cash flows (such as investment, disinvestment and acquisitions); people who need to improve their understanding of the theory and the practice of investment analysis. Economic criteria Value creation, capital cost and discount rate of a company. Equity and debt, Corporate finance and return on capital, ROCE and ROE. Cash flows and discounting principle. Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Pay-Out Time (POT), financial exposure, profitability index. Global profitability analysis Analysis of operating cash flows and economic criteria. Return on capital employed. Profit and Loss accounts and associated project income taxes. Impact of taxation and inflation in profitability investment studies. Choice of an investment program with a limited budget, scarcity cost of capital. 3 Days 0.75 d 0.75 d - Finance & Management On completion of the course, the participants will be able: --to use tools related to an investment profitability analysis --to incorporate terms of financing plans in equity profitability analysis --to build complex computer models for cash flow analysis --to carry out risk analysis of investment projects Prerequisite Basic notions of Microsoft Excel. Risk analysis Risk analysis methodology. Sensitivity analysis in investment decision, Spider and Tornado charts. Limits of sensitivity analysis. Case studies on investment profitability Octane improvement: implementation of isomerization and/or alkylation process units. Hydrocracker project. Refinery project. Steam cracker project. Case studies and exercises derived from actual refinery situations. Coordinator: Mélissa Clodic EN Jun Rueil 1,940 EM [email protected] Refining & Chemicals 55

13 EAV / DOM Downstream Module 60 Days To gain an understanding of the downstream petroleum sector in its technical, economic, commercial and environmental dimensions (main refining units, key economic data and characteristics, management tools...). Recently hired professionals, preferably with an engineering background, about to take up a position in downstream petroleum activities Staff from other petroleum sectors (upstream, chemicals, etc.) taking up a downstream managerial position or from government agencies with responsibilities for petroleum matters will also benefit from this course. Refining Crude oils and finished products. Refining processes. Deep upgrading. Environmental constraints. Consequences of the reduction of heavy fuel oil outlets. Short-term refinery management. Unit margins. Decision sciences Linear programming: simplex, duality, economic interpretation, etc. Refining supply and demand. Refinery investments, costs and margins. Dynamic programming, non-linear programming, MCP problems in their applications in Energy industries (Gas and Electricity). Downstream management & sustainable development (refining, gas & power) Mid and downstream business: oil refining, petrochemicals and products. Utility management: coal, gas and power. Renewables and Environmental Management. Commodities markets & trading Introduction to commodities markets (energy, soft, tropical & non-ferrous). Physical oil markets. OTC products. Future markets. Options. Risk management and hedging. Strategic marketing and management Role of marketing in the firm and in the economy. Marketing organization. Measuring the firm s competitiveness. Designing a development strategy. Advanced econometrics Applied probability and statistics. Applications of statistical and probabilistic concepts. Independent study Personal research work. 6 d 4 d 22 d 5 d 8 d 5 d 10 d Note This module is a part of a 16-month master degree program, Petroleum Economics and Management, run by IFP School. Coordinator: Sylvie Saulnier EN Apr 13 - Jul 10 Rueil 12,240 EM [email protected] 56 Refining & Chemicals

14 Finance & Management GIP / SMP Strategic Management and Planning To provide a good understanding of why and how to: (i) define a mission, (ii) implement a strategy; and (iii), achieve higher performances. Senior Managers and Executives from oil and gas companies. Strategy fundamentals Public sector: alignment with government objectives, strategies and goals. Strategy added value to shareholders and stakeholders. Definitions, principles, differences between strategy, objectives and planning. Partnerships and strategy, alignment with partners and common goals. Basic leadership approach: leadership, HSE, corporate governance principles. Strategic thinking and analysis. Case studies from the oil industry. 4 Days - Finance & Management participants will be able: --to elaborate a strategy --to adapt a strategy with the overall corporate process for building Company s vision --to implement the tools needed to achieve the goals of a defined strategy --to put a balanced scorecard --Industrial experience of the lecturer. --Real case studies. Corporate strategy Importance of corporate governance and leadership in the strategic thinking process. Role of staff and its commitment to deliver strategy. Role of education, development and training throughout all layers of the organization. Tools to provide connectivity between layers. Board strategy. Corporate Strategy vs. Business unit. Case studies from the oil industry. Decision process Market evaluation: Michael Porter s model. Internal value chain and added value to support strategy. SWOT analysis on current situation. Prospectives. Decision making processes. Critical success factors. Case studies from the oil industry. Planning Tools for planning process. Operational planning, budgeting and scheduling. Balanced scorecard. Case studies. Coordinator: Sylvie Saulnier EN Oct Rueil 3,450 EM [email protected] Refining & Chemicals 57

15 Finance & Management GIP / PRM Price Risk Management in Energy Markets 2 Days To provide a better understanding of the principles and techniques for oil and gas price risk management. Professionals in the oil and gas industries impacted by the volatility of oil or gas prices: producers, marketers, refiners Purchasing, planning and finance departments of energy consumers Professionals from the bank sector who need to understand the specificities of oil and gas price risk management. participants will be able: --to review the means of evaluating price risk --to analyze and manipulate the exchange traded products used for hedging --to understand the different over the counter products used in hedging strategies for different oil and gas activities --Case studies. --Hedging exercises. Oil & gas markets Physical oil and gas markets. Markets structures and types of transactions. Price references and pricing mechanisms. Price exposure & hedging principles Price risk: how to evaluate it? Definition of hedging. Hedging instruments. Mark to Market and Value-At-Risk. Exchange traded products Futures and options contracts. Exchanges and their organization: NYMEX, ICE. Hedging using Futures. Market structure (contango, backwardation). Options: pricing and sensitivities. Basis risk and hedging imperfections. Over the counter products simulation of futures and options trading Forward contracts. Swaps. OTC options: caps, floors, collars. Options strategies. Electronic trading. Hedging strategies Various examples and simulations. Case study. Coordinator: Sylvie Chemineau EN Oct Rueil 1,470 EM [email protected] 58 Refining & Chemicals

16 Finance & Management GIP / IPS GIP / ERP Investment Profitability Studies in the Oil & Gas Industry Level: Foundation To provide a better understanding of the concepts behind the theory of capital budgeting and thus improve the analysis in investment profitability studies. A number of computer case studies will be treated all along the course to apply the principles that are presented succinctly, which makes this course a very practical one. Managers and staff concerned with decisions affecting medium and long term cash flows, such as investment, disinvestment, acquisitions or leasing, who need to improve their understanding of the theory and practice of investment analysis. Financial environment Value creation and management. Basic principles of corporate finance and accounting. Projects and sources of financing. Risks and cost of financing. Economic evaluation criteria Corporate finance, capital costs and discount rate of the company. Construction of project cash flows schedule. Economic criteria for project evaluation: net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), payback period, etc. Case studies: development of an oil field under concession. Global profitability analysis Methodology for assessing the global profitability of capital invested. Impact of taxation and inflation in profitability investment studies. Choosing an investment program with a limited budget, Scarcity cost of capital. Case studies: accelerating production project (EOR) project of upgrading a refinery (Hydrocracking unit). 4 Days - Finance & Management participants will be able: --to develop advanced computer models for the economic evaluation of oil and gas projects --to incorporate specific financing plan through equity profitability analysis --to analyze the economic results and carry out sensitivity analysis --to incorporate the risk and uncertainty in the economic evaluation of oil & gas projects. Prerequisite Participants need to be comfortable with the use of Microsoft Excel. Selected teaching methods: case studies simulated on computers. Economic cost analysis Accounting cost vs economic cost, after-tax cash outflows. Total discounted cost, annual economic cost. Economic depreciation, Unit economic cost, optimal economic lifetime. Cases studies: Issues related to purchasing of equipment and definition of an optimal economic lifetime. Equity profitability analysis Financing oil and gas projects, project finance and B.O.T. structures. Various financing plans and debt repayment. Analysis of equity cash flows, return on equity capital, financial leverage. Case studies: construction of LNG plant and gas pipeline projects with specific financing. Risk analysis Introduction to risk analysis and risk discount rate: sensitivity analysis, Spider and Tornado diagrams. Probability of success, economic risk analysis in oil exploration. Economic study of an exploration project using Min, Mode and Max scenarios. Case studies: Valuation of a decision to acquire information (seismic or drilling) and pricing of an exploration bloc. Case studies Oil field development project. Acceleration of production project with or without EOR (Enhanced Oil Recovery). Isomerization vs alkylation project. FCC project (Fluid Catalytic Cracking). Project of upgrading a refinery. Hydrocracking unit project. Polypropylene Plant Project. LNG plant project with specific financing. Gas pipeline project with specific financing. Service station modernization project. Gas-fired power plant project. Valuation of a decision to acquire information (seismic or drilling). Pricing of an exploration bloc. Coordinator: Mohamed Lyes Djenaoui EN Sep Rueil 2,660 EM [email protected] Refining & Chemicals 59