Competition for land use between different production alternatives

Transcription

1 New perspectives Competition for land use between different production alternatives Nan-Dirk Mulder, International IEC London 2011 Conference

2 : A leading Food & Agribank Presence in 41 countries 2

3 Battle for food: What s next? 700 Grain and oilseed prices Wheat (US) Corn (US) Soybeans (US) 3

4 What is driving commodity prices? Policies Trade policy Agricultural policy Biofuel/energy policy Food safety regulations (e.g., GMO) Sustainability criteria Supply factors Agricultural land Yield (output/ha) Farm management Farm-input prices Weather Diseases Commodity price Demand factors Feed Food Biofuels Industrial Other price determining factors Source:, 2009 Fund activity Exchange rates Freight rates Crude oil prices Technical specifications Market sentiment and speculation New non-agri market entrants

5 Key challenge: Global food supply Meat demand Food demand Fuel demand +20% in 10 years Meat supply Food supply Fuel supply Expansion efficiency yield Livestock supply Livestock/poultry supply Grain and oilseed supply Efficiency cultivation yield 5 Land use???????

6 Great challenge for sector: Fast-growing demand for agricultural products 220% 200% 180% 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% Global demand for agriculture (change ) Crops Livestock and dairy Biofuel Additional demand: 500 mln tonnes De : 500 m. tonnes Grains and oilseeds markets De Share developing Market volume growth Growth % markets Wheat + 70 million tonnes 10% 72% Coarse grains million tonnes 17% 50% Rice + 46 million tonnes 10% 98% Oilseeds million tonnes 20% 78% Demand for agriculture De Fuel, 130 million tonnes Food, 180 million tonnes 20% 0% Feed/Animal protein, 190 million tonnes Source: OECD, FAO, estimate,

7 How to produce 500 million tonnes more of grains and oilseeds? The supply challenge: hectares or yield? Unused arable land: 180 million hectares HECTARES South Africa 3% US 11% FSU 22% Additional 140 million hectares food, feed, fuel demand 2020 EU-27 11% Brazil 53% Yield improvement LOW YIELD food, feed, fuel demand 2010 HIGH 30% yield increase Grains yield (tonnes/ha) in 2007/2008 Wheat Corn Brazil 2,100 3,800 EU-15/27 4,830 6,480 Russia 2,020 3,790 Ukraine 2,340 4,210 U.S. 2,720 9,660 Source: OECD,

8 4% 4% 4% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% Eggs: Asia 75% of global growth 7,000,000 6,000,000 40% Egg market growth estimate Global market growth First tier countries: 78% of global market growth Second tier countries: 10% of global market growth 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 11% 13% 1,000,000 6% - -1,000,000 8 Source; estimate

9 Meat demand: Developing countries 70% of global growth Market-growth estimate for key meat markets ,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, ,000 Source:, FAO, FAPRI, OECD 9 Poultry Beef Pork

10 Who s going to supply? Egg cost of production (EUR ct/kg) Broiler cost of production EUR/kg cwe US BRA ARG EU RUS CHI THA IND - EU US Brazil Ukraine India Source: estimate 10

11 Differences in trade-ability between proteins Importance of global trade in animal proteins 18.0% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 Shell egg and egg products trade 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 1,000, ,000 Egg products: CAGR: +6.6% Shell eggs: CAGR +5.5% 2.0% 0.0% Eggs Beef Pork Poultry Seafood Egg products Shell eggs 11 Source: based on FAO/USDA

12 Future egg-production growth Global egg production (1,000 tonnes and CAGR ) 40,000 Top 15 Egg producing countries in 2020 and CAGR , % 30,000 25,000 20,000 15, % 10,000 5, % +0.5% +4.5% +2.5% +1.5% +2.5% -0.2% +5.0% +5.5%+2.5% +3.0% +5.0% +0.5% +5.0% Source: based on FAO/USDA/FAPRI/OECD

13 Future meat-production growth Global meat production (1,000 tonnes and CAGR ) 120, , % 80, % 60, % +0.2% 40, % 20, % +4.5% +3.8% +1.8% +1.2% +0.8% +0.8% +3.8% - Source: /OECD, Sheep Poultry Pork Beef

14 Water issues will start to bite 14

15 Looking ahead (I): Ring of fire region as future spearhead in global trade

16 Looking ahead (II): The commodity-price roller coaster Grain and oilseed prices (USD/tonne) Wheat (US) Corn (US) Soybeans (US) Source: Bloomberg 16

17 Looking ahead (III). CSR key success factor Tonnes CO2-e per tonne of production Government policy Beef Brazil Beef Ireland Beef NL Pork Poultry Salmon Cheese Eggs Milk Cashew nuts Walnuts Beans Retail

18 Price competitiveness, flexibility of eggs fits future market needs Cost of production efficiency Egg Production cycle - flexibility Egg Chicken Chicken Pangasius Pangasius Pork Pork Shrimp Shrimp Beef (finishing) Beef (finishing) Salmon Salmon 18 Source: estimate

19 How to pass on higher feed prices? Bargaining power/ consolidation rate Supply/deman d Market intelligence Purchasing power 19

20 Very low consolidation in egg industry Consolidation in the global animal-protein industry 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 7% 7% 20% 22% 2% 10% 7% 9% 7% Eggs Pork Beef Poultry Feed Other Top 3 market share Source: estimate 20

21 Will the egg industry follow the meat consolidation trend? 1,000 tonnes 14,000 Global ranking: Meat companies 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 - * Including Bertin, Pilgrim's Pride 21 ** Merger Perdigão, Sadia Poultry Beef Pork Source: estimate

22 Consolidation in the global meat industry 22

23 Winners think across borders Synergies in sales Access to new growth markets Global trade platform Access to low-cost production Risk mitigation

24 Will egg processing follow the internationalisation process in meat? 1,600 30% Value; 35 but what is impact of traditional cage ban? 2% Access to low cost 1,600 25% production 5-10% market growth Value Access to distribution % LEGEND (x 1,000 mt, eggs, 2010) 110 5% Access to low cost production % % % Production xx% Importance egg products in total production % 100 5% 3% 12 10%

25 Economic growth leads to new opportunities for the industry ECONOMIC TAKE- OFF Food as a need Income: < $ 5,000 Time free ECONOMIC REINVENTION Food as stimulation Income: > $40, Location Bound Location free Income: $ 5,000 - $15,000 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT Food as a social occasion Time bound Income: $15,000 - $40,000 ECONOMIC CONSOLIDATION Food as nutrition/well-being

26 Golden rules for industry winners Customer focus Right client portfolio Preferred suppliership Branded products Value-chain captain Manage supply and demand Keep certain level of flexibility Risk mitigation Price volatility control Multispecies Product differentiation Internationalisation Supply competitiveness Efficiency Scale Traceability Food safety 26

27 Dealing with volatility key success factor for whole value chain Grains and oilseeds Feed Farming Processing Customer Market intelligence + = Information exchange Market power Volatility in grains and oilseeds Volatility in exchange rates Volatility in eggs markets Request for stable sales prices Hedging/price management Risk management 27

28 Picture of the future? Local trade Global trade Fresh perishable products -Fresh eggs and egg products -Speciality products Non perishable products - Frozen and dried products 28

29 or this? Source: Prof dr David Hughes 29

30 Or is this the future? 30

31 Future for eggs - Cheapest animal protein source - Very efficient feed-conversion rate - Industry s early move to alternative systems and low CO2 footprint to become a competitive advantage - Product and market development needs to speed up -Egg products industry will benefit from globalisation of market -CSR will become a KSF 31

32 Conclusions Great long-term egg demand potential for global industry with growing emphasis on yield throughout the value chain Dealing with volatility in feed ingredients and exchange rates will be a key challenge for the industry in the coming years Waves of protectionism and diseases put impact markets and industries Growing importance of consumer concerns in industry; industry should participate in global discussions and come with innovative ideas Consolidation in the global egg industry is going to continue; more internationalisation in the egg-processing industry driven by US and EU companies Global animal protein ndustry landscape will change significantly in the next 20 years Companies from emerging markets (e.g., China, India, Latin America) will play a more leading role 32

33 New perspectives Thanks for your attention Nan-Dirk Mulder International