MBA COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE / MULTIFAMILY FINANCE QUARTERLY DATABOOK

Transcription

1 MBA COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE / MULTIFAMILY FINANCE QUARTERLY DATABOOK Q

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3 MBA COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE / MULTIFAMILY FINANCE QUARTERLY DATABOOK Q4 2012

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5 Fourth Quarter 2012 Selected Charts Month-over-month Change in At-Place Employment Thousands of jobs Treasury Yield Curve Percent Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Source: Federal Reserve Board Ten-year Treasury and 10-year Swaps Percent Multifamily Permits, Starts and Completions Thousands, Seasonally adjusted annual rate Source: Federal Reserve Board Source: Census Bureau

6 Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations Index 2001 quarterly average = 100 Source: MBA The Commercial Real Estate/ Multifamily Finance Quarterly Data Book is a quarterly compendium of the latest MBA research on the commercial/multifamily finance markets. The latest version of the Data Book can be downloaded from the MBA website at: mortgagebankers.org/res earchandforecasts/ Commercial/Multifamily Property Sales $Billions Price Indices December 2000 = 100 Source: Real Capital Analytics Source: MBA, Moody's Investors Services, National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries, and Green Street Advisors Monthly Retail Sales Average Vacancy Rates By Property Type Source: U.S. Census Bureau Source: REIS

7 MBA Commercial Real Estate/ Multifamily Finance Quarterly Data Book Fourth Quarter 2012 March 29, 2013 SELECTED CHARTS... 5 TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction... 9 Economic Commentary MBA Long-Term Mortgage Finance and Economic Forecasts Treasury Yields and Bank Rates Employees on Non-farm Payrolls Monthly Retail Sales Owner- and Renter-Occupied Housing Units COMMERCIAL/MULTIFAMILY FINANCE Extract of Commercial Real Estate Comments from The Federal Reserve Board s Beige Book New Inventory Change Less Net Absorption for Commercial/Multifamily Properties Average Rents and Vacancy Rates at Commercial/Multifamily Properties Multifamily Building Permits, Starts and Completions Value of Construction Put-In-Place Commercial/Multifamily Property Sales Volume Commercial/Multifamily Prices and Capitalization Rates Commercial/Multifamily Property Price Indices Quarterly Mortgage Banker Originations Survey Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities (CMBS) and Commercial Real Estate Collateralized Debt Obligation (CRE CDO) Issuance American Council of Life Insurers (ACLI) Commitment Volumes COMMERCIAL MORTGAGE DEBT & REAL ESTATE SECURITIES Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Delinquencies by Investor Group Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) Outstanding Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities (CMBS) Spreads Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Servicers, Year-End RECENT MBA COMMERCIAL/MULTIFAMILY RESEARCH

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9 1. Outlook Introduction The U.S. economy recorded lackluster economic growth during the fourth quarter, but commercial real estate markets continued their trend of slow and steady revival. THE ECONOMY The U.S. economy, as measured by the real gross domestic product, grew at just 0.4 percent during the fourth quarter, tying the slowest rate of quarterly growth since The drop was driven by a decline in government spending. At the same time, employment picked up during the quarter, with the addition, on a seasonally adjusted basis, of 160,000 nonfarm jobs in October, 247,000 jobs in November and 219,000 in December. January and February continued the trend with the addition of 119,000 and 236,000 jobs respectively. Over the year, the number of occupied housing units grew by 947,000 with the addition of more than one million renter households and a decline of 106,000 owneroccupied households, although the last two quarters saw growth in both renter- and owner-occupied households. PROPERTY FUNDAMENTALS Commercial property fundamentals continued their trend of modest improvement among office, retail and certain other property types and tight and tightening conditions in multifamily apartment markets. Office vacancy rates fell from 17.2 percent in the third quarter to 17.1 in the fourth (down from a cycle high of 17.6 percent). Retail vacancies dropped from 10.8 percent to 10.7 percent (down from a cycle high of 11.1 percent). The multifamily vacancy rate, in contrast, fell from 4.7 percent in the third quarter to 4.5 percent in the fourth (down from a cycle high 8.0 percent). Asking rents rose during the quarter for all three property types, by 3 percent for apartments, 2 percent for office properties and 1 percent for retail. PROPERTY TRANSACTIONS The dollar volume of property sales transactions increased by 28 percent during 2012, from $202 billion in 2011 to $258 billion in Apartment property sales increased by 51 percent, retail properties by 23 percent, office properties by 22 percent and industrial by 7 percent. Capitalization rates were mixed. Apartment cap rates were unchanged at 6.2 percent. Industrial were unchanged at 7.8 percent. Office cap rates fell from 7.2 percent in the third quarter to 7.0 percent in the fourth. Retail cap rates rose from 7.2 percent to 7.3 percent. In terms of property prices, the Green Street Advisors CPPI which generally tracks REIT properties and represents the equity markets valuation of real estate rose 1.3 percent over the quarter and is now at 98 percent of its peak level. The NCREIF TBI which tracks transactions of generally high-quality institutional properties fell 1 percent during the quarter and is currently at 85 percent of its peak value. The Moody s/rca index which tracks a wide range of properties across a variety of markets rose 3.2 percent and now sits at 80 percent of its peak value. ORIGINATIONS ACTIVITY Commercial and multifamily mortgage originations increased 49 percent between the third and the fourth quarters of 2012, and were also up 49 percent compared to the fourth quarter of MBA s commercial/multifamily mortgage bankers originations index shows originations for the full year 2012 were 24 percent higher than in Final numbers will come out in early April with MBA s Annual Origination Summation. 9

10 Between the third and fourth quarters of 2012, the dollar volume of loans originated for CMBS increased by 141 percent, loans for GSEs increased by 54 percent, originations for life insurance companies increased 33 percent and loans for commercial bank portfolios increased by 32 percent. In February, MBA forecast that 2013 originations will rise by 11 percent from 2012 levels. MORTGAGES The level of commercial/multifamily mortgage debt outstanding increased by $21.8 billion, or 0.9 percent, in the fourth quarter of 2012, as all four major investor groups increased their holdings. On a yearover-year basis, the amount of mortgage debt outstanding at the end of 2012 was $29.7 billion higher than at the end of 2011, an increase of 1.2 percent. Multifamily mortgage debt outstanding rose to $846 billion, an increase of $11.8 billion or 1.4 percent from the third quarter, and $35.7 billion or 4.4 percent from the fourth quarter of The fourth quarter saw the largest increase in commercial and multifamily mortgage debt outstanding since Bank-held commercial mortgages increased by the largest amount since The balance of loans held in CMBS rose by the most since 2007 and the balances of loans held by life companies and held or guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and FHA continued their multi-year increases. or insured by Fannie Mae decreased 0.04 percentage points to 0.24 percent. The 90+ day delinquency rate for loans held by FDIC-insured banks and thrifts decreased 0.32 percentage points to 2.62 percent. The 30+ day delinquency rate for loans held in commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) decreased 0.13 percentage points to 8.73 percent. LOAN MATURITIES In February, MBA released its latest analysis of upcoming loan maturity volumes, which found that $119.5 billion, eight percent of the outstanding balance, of commercial and multifamily mortgages held by non-bank lenders and investors will mature in 2013, a 21 percent decline from the $150.6 billion that matured in 2012 The loan maturities vary significantly by investor group. Just 5 percent ($16.0 billion) of the outstanding balance of multifamily and health care mortgages held or guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, FHA and Ginnie Mae will mature in Life insurance companies will see 7 percent ($21.9 billion) of their outstanding mortgage balances mature in Among loans held in CMBS, 7 percent ($43.4 billion) will come due in Twenty-one percent ($38.1 billion) of commercial mortgages held by credit companies and other investors will mature in (For more information go to andforecasts/productsandsurveys/loanmat urityvolumes.htm). LOAN PERFORMANCE Delinquency rates continued to decline for commercial and multifamily mortgage loans in the fourth quarter of The 60+ day delinquency rate for commercial and multifamily mortgages held in life company portfolios decreased 0.04 percentage points to 0.08 percent. The 60+ day delinquency rate for multifamily loans held or insured by Freddie Mac decreased 0.08 percentage points to 0.19 percent. The 60+ day delinquency rate for multifamily loans held 10

11 Economic Commentary Stronger Start to 2013 March 2013 Growth in the first quarter of 2013 has picked up after a slow fourth quarter last year due to strong inventory investment, retail sales, and less of a drag from the trade deficit. The first quarter is likely to see growth of 2.4 percent. With sequestration, across the board cuts in federal government spending, kicking in, we have lowered our estimates for the second and third quarters of 2013 as furloughs begin leading many households to have to adjust to less take home pay. This will be a small drag on growth, but overall consumer spending should continue to increase at a roughly 2 percent rate, driven by purchases of durable goods. The FOMC statement released following the March meeting was very similar to January s statement, with the Committee acknowledging the pickup in the pace of growth but also recognizing still elevated unemployment. It was also noted that fiscal policy has become more restrictive. The Committee reiterated its commitment to accommodative monetary policy, keeping the Fed Funds rate low and continuing to expand its balance sheet with month MBS and Treasury purchases. Similar to the last few statements, the Committee provided an unemployment target of 6.5 percent and inflation target of 2.5 percent. However, in Chairman Bernanke s press conference following the release of the statement, he indicated that the Fed may begin to vary the pace of asset purchases in the months ahead, decreasing purchase volumes in response to signs of economic strength, but holding on to the option to increase purchases again should growth weaken. Job growth has been accelerating over the past four months and the unemployment rate is improving more rapidly than we had previously expected. Nonfarm payroll employment in February grew by 236,000 jobs, with private payrolls increasing by 246,000 jobs and government payrolls decreasing by 10,000 jobs. The unemployment rate decreased to 7.7 percent from 7.9 percent in January. The increase in overall and private payrolls was the highest single monthly increase since November However, the January overall payroll count was revised down by 38,000 so the gain is less than it appeared. With the downward revision in January, job growth in the first two months of 2013 has averaged a little under 178,000 jobs, well below the January and February 2012 average of 291,000. However, the 4 month moving average for overall payroll growth is at 205,000 jobs, the highest since April At 7.7 percent, the unemployment rate is the lowest since December The labor force participation rate edged down to 63.5 percent from 63.6 percent in January. The participation rate was below 64 percent for all of 2012, the lowest levels seen since The U6 measure of underemployment dropped to 14.3 percent from 14.4 percent. There were fewer new and reentering workers to the work force in February but increases in discouraged workers, marginally attached workers, and long term unemployed. This suggests that mismatches still remain between the jobs that have been added to the economy and the skills of those who have been unemployed yet still seeking work. The increase in private nonfarm payrolls was driven primarily by gains in the private service providing sector which added 179,000 positions while the goods producing sector added 67,000 positions, the highest level in over a year. Within the service sector, professional and business 11

12 services gained 73,000 jobs, half of which originated from administrative and support services, while leisure and hospitality and education and health services added 24,000 jobs respectively. Construction accounted for most of the gain in the goods producing industry by adding 48,000 jobs, the largest monthly gain in nearly 6 years, specifically with the hiring of specialty trade contractors propelling the construction employment numbers. The government lost 10,000 positions concentrated in state and local governments. Industrial production increased by the largest margin in three months in February, driven by manufacturing and utilities. Gains compared to a year ago were also strong compared to a year ago. The overall level of production continued on an upward trend overall and was the highest since Capacity utilization, at 79.6 percent, was also the highest since 2008, but is still below the historical average of 80.7 percent. The ISM s manufacturing index for February also moved in a favorable direction, increasing to the highest level since June The index had been unimpressive in the second half of 2012, but has shown solid growth over the last two months. New orders and production drove some of that growth, along with the prices, imports, and export components. Anecdotal responses to the ISM s survey however, did note a few soft spots in the manufacturing sector, including defense spending. Housing starts rose in February and the three month moving average for total starts is at the highest level since August Starts increased across all unit types, with single family starts increasing 0.5 percent to a SAAR of 618,000 units, the highest level since July 2008, while multifamily starts increased to a SAAR of 14,000 units and 285,000 units, for 2-4 units and 5+ units respectively. The starts level improved over the past year for all housing types, particularly for single unit structures and 5 or more unit structures, which have seen positive year over year gains for at least 17 months. In a separate report, sales of existing homes increased 0.8 percent to 4.98 million units, the highest pace since November 2009, which coincides with the first implementation of the home buyer tax credit. Over the year, home sales increased 6.3 percent. Perhaps more significantly in this release, the inventory of homes available for sale increased from 1.78 million units to 1.94 million units. While this was a step towards more robust growth, the inventory level has been stuck below the 2 million mark for four months, the longest sub-2 million streak since 2000/2001. The historical average for the series is around 2.7 million units for sale. Home purchase volume in February 2013 increased 28 percent over the month and 16 percent relative to the same month last year, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. February is typically when purchase mortgage application activity rises quickly as the spring buying season begins. Compared to the previous month, purchase applications increased for all states except North Dakota. Gains were largest in Vermont, Indiana and Rhode Island. Over the year, more than three quarters of the states had increases in purchase applications. Refinance applications in February increased 3.7 percent from the previous month, but were down from last year. Refinance applications grew in the majority of states compared to January 2013, with the largest gain in Michigan, Utah and Ohio. Year over year refinance applications were split pretty evenly in terms of gains and losses among the states, although the national total still increased slightly by 0.4 percent. In a separate survey, the HARP share of refinance applications remained around 30 percent for the fourth week, which is likely keeping the flow of refinance applications in the pipeline higher than it would be without the program. We raised our forecast for both new and existing home sales given more positive data releases of late, and continue to expect that purchase originations will continue their rise while refinancing activity slows in

13 We forecast that mortgage rates will rise from 3.6 percent in Q1 to 4.3 percent by Q4. We estimate that mortgage originations totaled $1.7 trillion in 2012, and will decline to $1.4 trillion in 2013 as rates rise, and refinance originations fall. The origination forecast is based on expectations of a modest increase in economic growth in 2013 relative to We expect gross domestic product to rise 2.1 percent in 2013, driven by residential fixed investment and personal consumption expenditures. As noted earlier, housing starts and sales have been strong and will improve further in coming quarters. Despite tax increases and tighter fiscal policy overall in 2013, household spending has been resilient so far, although more significant adverse impacts might be felt later in the year as more of the budget cuts set in. We expect that growth through 2014 will be 2.5 percent. The unemployment rate should decrease more rapidly, as monthly job growth picks up and as demographic factors keep labor force participation low. The unemployment rate will decrease to 7.5 percent for all of 2013 and 6.9 percent in

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16 TREASURY YIELDS AND BANK RATES Federal Reserve Statistical Release H-15 Treasury Yield Curve Month 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 7-Year 10-Year Feb-13 Dec-12 Dec-11 Dec-10 Dec-09 Dec-08 Ten Year Treasury and Ten Year Swaps Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan Year Treasury 10 Year Swaps Source: Federal Reserve Board H-15 Report Yields on actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities. 16

17 TREASURY YIELDS AND BANK RATES Federal Reserve Statistical Release H-15 3-Month 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 7-Year 10-Year 10-Year Treasury Treasury Treasury Treasury Treasury Treasury Swap Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Change in Rate Feb- 12 to Feb (0.02) Source: Federal Reserve Board H-15 Report Yields on actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities. 17

18 EMPLOYEES ON NONFARM PAYROLLS Number of Employees on Nonfarm Payrolls Seasonally Adjusted, Thousands of Employees Year-over-year Change 6,000 4,000 2,000 - (2,000) (4,000) (6,000) (8,000) Total Non-Farm Service Producing Goods Producing Government Month-over-month Change (200) (400) (600) (800) (1,000) Service Producing Goods Producing Government Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 18

19 EMPLOYEES ON NONFARM PAYROLLS Number of Employees on Nonfarm Payrolls Seasonally Adjusted, Thousands of Employees Private Private Service Goods Government Total Producing Producing Nonfarm Dec ,435 22,404 22, ,927 Dec ,690 21,976 22, ,042 Dec ,546 20,323 22, ,425 Dec ,107 17,786 22, ,373 Dec ,336 17,792 22, ,395 Dec ,306 18,242 21, ,498 Dec ,295 18,522 21, ,691 Feb ,771 18,365 21, ,080 Mar , ,402 21, ,285 Apr ,056 18,408 21, ,397 May ,220 18,396 21, ,522 Jun ,284 18,410 21, ,609 Jul ,435 18,436 21, ,762 Aug ,580 18,422 21, ,927 Sep ,715 18,405 21, ,065 Oct ,916 18,421 21, ,225 Nov ,129 18,464 21, ,472 Dec ,295 18,522 21, ,691 Jan ,394 18,563 21, ,810 Feb ,573 18,630 21, ,046 Percent change Feb 2012 to Feb % 1.4% -0.5% 1.5% Change Year-over-year Dec , ,071 Dec ,255 (428) 288 1,115 Dec 2008 (2,144) (1,653) 180 (3,617) Dec 2009 (2,439) (2,537) (76) (5,052) Dec ,229 6 (213) 1,022 Dec , (317) 2,103 Dec , (76) 2,193 Month-over-month Feb Mar (3) 205 Apr (8) 112 May (12) (27) 125 Jun Jul (24) 153 Aug (14) Sep (17) Oct (57) 160 Nov (9) 247 Dec (5) 219 Jan (21) 119 Feb (10) 236 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 19

20 MONTHLY RETAIL SALES Seasonally Adjusted Retail sales, excluding motor vehicle and parts dealers, $millions 350, , , , , ,000 50, Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Year-Over-Year % Change in Trailing three month retail sales, excluding motor vehicles and parts delears 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Source: U.S. Census Bureau 20

21 MONTHLY RETAIL SALES Seasonally Adjusted By Kind of Business, $millions General Merchandise Food and Beverage Stores 56,000 54,000 52,000 50,000 48,000 46,000 44,000 42,000 40, Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, Jan Jan Building Materials Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Health and Personal Care Stores 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Clothing & Accessories 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Source: U.S. Census Bureau 21

22 MONTHLY RETAIL SALES Seasonally Adjusted By Kind of Business, $millions Total excludes motor vehicle and parts dealers Selected Businesses General Food & Building Health & Clothing & Total % Change Merchandise Beverage Materials Personal Accessories Year- Over- Year , , , , ,112 2,184, % , , , , ,593 2,246, % , , , , ,308 2,311, % , , , , ,417 2,420, % , , , , ,393 2,597, % , , , , ,233 2,800, % , , , , ,945 2,977, % , , , , ,547 3,090, % , , , , ,235 3,155, % , , , , ,951 2,954, % , , , , ,520 3,093, % , , , , ,310 3,329, % , , , , ,627 3,464, % Month- over- Month Feb 52,932 52,130 24,495 22,939 19, , % Mar 53,388 52,449 25,339 22,970 19, , % Apr 52,791 52,582 24,531 23,031 19, , % May 52,689 52,523 24,006 22,921 19, , % Jun 52,536 52,621 23,504 22,618 19, , % Jul 52,606 52,886 23,897 22,975 19, , % Aug 52,702 52,705 24,286 22,874 20, , % Sep 52,522 53,243 24,940 22,790 20, , % Oct 52,388 53,475 24,598 22,788 20, , % Nov 52,032 53,347 24,884 22,794 20, , % Dec 51,759 53,566 25,113 23,069 20, , % Jan 51,866 53,596 25,314 23,115 20, , % Feb 52,101 54,006 25,603 23,120 20, , % Source: U.S. Census Bureau 22

23 Change in Owner- and Renter-Occupied Housing Units Thousands of Units Year-over-year Change 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 - (1,000) (2,000) (3,000) Change in Renter-occupied Units Change in Owner-occupied Units Quarter-over-quarter Change 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 - (1,000) (2,000) (3,000) (4,000) Change in Renter-occupied Units Change in Owner-occupied Units Source: MBA, U.S. Census Bureau and Haver Analytics 23

24 Owner- and Renter-Occupied Housing Units Thousands of Units at End-of-period Number of Occupied Units Year-over-year Change Total Owner Renter Total Owner Renter ,728 58,798 32, (4) ,691 59,508 33, ,980 60,523 33,457 1,289 1, ,717 61,450 34,267 1, ,797 62,144 34,653 1, ,545 63,502 34, ,358 (610) ,421 64,367 34, ,743 65,531 34,212 1,322 1, ,115 67,140 33,975 1,372 1,609 (237) ,330 68,459 33,871 1,215 1,318 (103) ,646 70,010 33,635 1,315 1,551 (236) ,698 71,230 33,468 1,053 1,220 (167) ,759 72,187 33,572 1, ,505 73,091 33, (158) ,735 75,233 33,502 2,230 2, ,281 76,119 34,162 1, ,096 76,544 34, ,724 75,720 36, (824) 1, ,823 75,465 36, (255) ,485 75,537 36, ,439 75,413 38, (124) 1, ,086 75,315 38, (98) ,033 75,209 39, (106) 1,053 Quarter-over-quarter Change Q4 113,439 75,413 38, (116) Q1 113,111 75,092 38,018 (328) (321) (8) Q2 113,391 74,706 38, (386) Q3 113,548 75,251 38, (386) Q4 114,086 75,315 38, Q1 114,123 74,602 39, (713) Q2 114,200 74,832 39, (153) Q3 114,695 75,076 39, Q4 115,033 75,209 39, Source: MBA, U.S. Census Bureau and Haver Analytics 24

25 2. Commercial/Multifamily Finance Environment Extract of Commercial Real Estate Comments from the Federal Reserve Board s Beige Book March 6, 2013 Prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City and based on information collected on or before February 22, This document summarizes comments received from businesses and other contacts outside the Federal Reserve and is not a commentary on the views of Federal Reserve officials. NATIONAL SUMMARY Overall commercial real estate conditions were mixed or slightly improved in most Districts. Commercial real estate activity grew modestly in the Philadelphia, Richmond, Atlanta, and St. Louis Districts, and activity in the San Francisco District expanded. Boston and New York reported mixed activity, while the Kansas City and Dallas Districts noted few changes. Although some modest growth was reported in the Chicago District, the level of activity remained weak, and commercial contractors in the Cleveland District noted a slowing in activity, particularly for defense-related projects. Office vacancy rates declined across most of the New York District, and industrial vacancy rates in upstate New York posted their lowest levels in three years. Richmond contacts described the supply of Class A office space as tight, which they attributed to the absence of new construction. Commercial development and leasing activity increased in the San Francisco Bay and Seattle markets, fueled by sustained growth in the technology sector. Commercial construction improved by varying degrees in the Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis, and Kansas City Districts. Respondents in the Boston District expressed concerns about overbuilding in Boston's apartment market and office sector, while Philadelphia contacts noted an increase in energy-related projects and repair work resulting from Hurricane Sandy. Cleveland, Atlanta, and Chicago reported high demand for manufacturing space, with some Chicago manufacturers leasing temporary space to accommodate increased demand. Credit for commercial development and transactions was widely available, although Boston noted a large decline in loan demand and contacts in the Cleveland District said financing difficulties continued. FIRST DISTRICT BOSTON Contacts across the First District offer somewhat mixed reports concerning recent activity and the outlook, but note that fundamentals are largely unchanged since the last report. Leasing interest picked up slightly in Hartford in recent weeks but has not resulted in an increase in completed lease deals nor in significant absorption. In Boston, leasing inquiries remain steady. One Boston contact notes that tenants express little urgency to sign deals while another says that absorption increased slightly in recent weeks. In Providence, leasing activity picked up from last time and Class A downtown office vacancies fell to just under 9 percent from roughly 15 percent a year earlier. A Portland contact reports that leasing activity is stable and office rents unchanged since the last report, notwithstanding some newly announced plant closings in the region that will result in layoffs. Investment sales reportedly picked up in both Hartford and Providence as some investors were priced out of primary markets such as Boston. Across the region, multifamily structures remain the favored investment class, but high quality office and industrial structures are also seeing healthy demand. More properties are coming up for sale in response to rising prices. Some contacts are concerned that the high sales 25

26 prices for premier properties in Boston are increasingly out of line with fundamentals. A regional lender notes a significant decline in loan demand for commercial properties since December and cites as possible reasons a temporary decline in the bank's marketing efforts together with a general climate of economic uncertainty. Respondents raise concerns about overbuilding in Boston's apartment market and possibly also in its office sector. While current office construction in Boston is preleased rather than speculative, one contact notes that the intended tenants will nonetheless generate significant vacancies at their current locations in other parts of the city. The outlook is largely unchanged in Portland and Boston, calling for a continuation of slow growth. Upside risks to absorption are cited for both Hartford and Providence, while contacts in both Boston and Hartford note downside macroeconomic risks as a threat to commercial real estate markets. SECOND DISTRICT NEW YORK Commercial real estate markets across the District were mixed but generally firmer since the last report. Office vacancy rates declined across most of the District, though rents in most areas continued to run below year-ago levels. Manhattan's office market was particularly robust, with vacancy rates continuing to decline and asking rents up 4 percent from a year ago. In northern New Jersey and in the Buffalo, Albany and Syracuse metro areas, vacancy rates have declined since the start of the year, but rents continue to run 1-3 percent below early 2012 levels. However, office markets in Westchester and Fairfield counties have been increasingly slack, with vacancy rates climbing to new highs and rents slipping roughly 4 percent over the past year. Market conditions in metro Rochester have been essentially flat. Industrial markets have shown some signs of firming. In northern New Jersey, Long Island, Westchester and Fairfield counties, industrial vacancy rates have been steady since the beginning of the year, while rents are running 2-4 percent ahead of comparable 2012 levels. Industrial vacancy rates across upstate New York have continued to decline, reaching their lowest levels in three years, while rents have also drifted down. THIRD DISTRICT PHILADELPHIA Nonresidential real estate contacts reported continued modest growth in overall leasing activity and continued slight growth in construction. Contacts report that construction and repair work have grown, prospect activity has gained momentum and resolve, and money has been flowing more freely for investments. Current activity and prospects are emerging from recently quiet sectors, including some land development projects and retail, in particular, large warehouse facilities for national retailers. Activity is heating up in energy-related projects, with some repair work resulting from Hurricane Sandy. Contacts were decidedly more upbeat about future prospects, stating that the trends "feel sustainable." FOURTH DISTRICT CLEVELAND Nonresidential contractors experienced some slowing in business activity, when compared to the fourth quarter of last year. Margins are still tight and inquiries were down slightly. Builders noted that stress on government budgets is choking the supply of projects, especially defense-related. One contractor stated that uncertainty has eased somewhat and the number of potential clients is growing. But transforming proposals into signed contracts remains challenging, which is due in part to difficulty in obtaining financing. Project work is found mainly in manufacturing, distribution, and large multifamily developments. Our contacts are cautious about near-term activity and expect slow to moderate growth, mainly from private- sector clients. FIFTH DISTRICT RICHMOND Commercial real estate and construction markets improved somewhat since our last report. A developer in the Carolinas said that leasing activity continued at a reasonably healthy pace, while a Richmond 26

27 Realtor stated that tenants were trying to hedge based on the economy. He noted that companies didn't want to commit to more than a five-year lease with the right to cancel at three years. Most contacts continued to describe the supply of Class A office space as tight, which they attributed to the absence of new construction. Several Realtors reported that rental rates had firmed in the market with property owners keeping rents firm and minimizing concessions. A source in Charleston, South Carolina cited heightened industrial sales due to attractive lending rates. He indicated that vacancy rates had declined and that a couple of build-to-suit projects had positive absorption. SIXTH DISTRICT ATLANTA Contacts cited improvements in District commercial real estate markets but the recovery continued to unfold slowly. Multifamily projects dominated reports, although it was also noted that manufacturers were expanding their facilities. Commercial contractors reported that construction improved modestly from late last year. Commercial brokers indicated that demand improved as well. Rents stabilized by most accounts and tenants were seeking longer lease deals. Investors still have a strong interest in core markets, though there has been some indication that some have started to turn to secondary markets in the region. SEVENTH DISTRICT CHICAGO Although there was some modest growth in nonresidential construction, the level of activity remains weak. Notably, while some new projects are slated to break ground, growth in commercial and office space is expected to remain below trend for some time. However, contacts did note that construction of private-practice facilities close to affiliated hospitals is an area of strength in this segment. Commercial real estate leasing activity was generally unchanged--rents held steady, while vacancy rates continued to come down slowly. In contrast, some manufacturers were reportedly leasing temporary space in order to accommodate increased demand. EIGHTH DISTRICT ST. LOUIS Commercial and industrial real estate markets improved modestly throughout most of the District. Contacts in Louisville reported that office asking rents increased during the fourth quarter of 2012, while contacts in Little Rock noted that office vacancy rates decreased. A contact in St. Louis reported strong office leasing and industrial sales activity. A contact in Memphis reported stable commercial real estate conditions. Commercial and industrial construction activity continued to strengthen throughout most of the District. A contact in northeast Mississippi noted that commercial construction and renovation activity increased in the fourth quarter of Contacts in St. Louis noted a few commercial construction projects underway and plans for a speculative industrial building project. Contacts in Louisville reported several ongoing commercial construction projects in Bowling Green. NINTH DISTRICT MINNEAPOLIS Commercial construction activity increased at a robust pace since the last report. A real estate forecasting firm expects 600,000 square feet of industrial construction in the Minneapolis-St. Paul area in 2013 compared with 200,000 square feet in Some of that construction is speculative. Commercial real estate markets continued to strengthen. A major commercial real estate firm forecast that Minneapolis-St. Paul area office vacancy rates will drop to 15.5 percent by the end of 2013 compared with 17.6 percent at the end of The same firm forecast industrial vacancy rates to drop to 7.6 percent from 8.5 percent. TENTH DISTRICT KANSAS CITY Commercial real estate sales, prices, rents and vacancy rates were all unchanged since the last survey period. However, new construction was much improved compared to a year ago and contacts expected new construction to continue to improve in the coming months. Interest rates on commercial and industrial loans continued to show moderate declines. Most bankers reported improved loan quality compared to a year ago, and they also expected the 27

28 outlook for loan quality to either improve or remain about the same over the next six months. ELEVENTH DISTRICT DALLAS Demand for commercial space remained moderate since the last report. Contacts said real estate investment activity continues to improve, and most remain optimistic in their outlooks. TWELFTH DISTRICT SAN FRANCISCO Commercial real estate development and leasing activity increased, particularly in the San Francisco Bay Area and Seattle markets, fueled by sustained growth in the technology sector. Commercial rental rates increased in various parts of the District. 28

29 NET INVENTORY CHANGE/NET ABSORPTION COMMERCIAL/MULTIFAMILY PROPERTIES Net Absorption (Thousands of Square Feet) 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, ,000 40,000 60, Q1 2003Q1 2004Q1 2005Q1 2006Q1 2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 Office Retail Apartment Net Inventory Change (Thousands of Square Feet) 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, ,000 40,000 60, Q1 2003Q1 2004Q1 2005Q1 2006Q1 2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 Office Retail Apartment Source: REIS 29

30 COMMERCIAL/MULTIFAMILY PROPERTIES NET INVENTORY CHANGE LESS NET ABSORPTION THOUSANDS OF SQUARE FEET Calendar Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year YTD Q4 APARTMENT ,558 22,952 9,087 39, , , ,553 (7,445) (10,381) 27,858 64,585 64, ,224 (24,225) (20,472) 3,337 (14,136) (14,136) 2005 (6,228) (20,131) (57,423) (12,080) (95,862) (95,862) ,123 (23,851) (13,943) 38,538 11,867 11, ,335 (19,332) (14,686) 9,830 (4,853) (4,853) ,525 15,695 9,298 50,108 99,626 99, ,784 35,266 17,797 20, , , ,739 (17,456) (71,245) (45,176) (132,138) (132,138) 2011 (37,816) (31,488) (26,419) (37,708) (133,431) (133,431) 2012 (26,686) (17,127) (7,764) (21,119) (72,696) (72,696) OFFICE ,606 23,707 17,453 15,574 99,340 99, ,626 11,394 8,539 8,093 41,652 41, (201) (1,996) (5,895) (12,298) (20,390) (20,390) 2005 (11,483) (21,652) (15,582) (16,844) (65,561) (65,561) 2006 (19,558) (13,917) (13,385) (5,483) (52,343) (52,343) 2007 (10,008) (11,669) (9,309) 5,429 (25,557) (25,557) ,244 13,636 24,037 31,506 80,423 80, ,430 32,272 24,940 17, , , ,748 4,982 7,264 (234) 26,760 26, (1,131) (1,567) (2,390) (1,921) (7,009) (7,009) 2012 (4,295) (1,533) (1,745) (3,154) (10,727) (10,727) RETAIL ,956 (717) ,800 4, (1,337) 234 2,434 (512) ,007 (1,368) (1,383) (205) (1,949) (1,949) (3,892) 1,390 1,448 (952) (952) , ,660 2,267 7,519 7, ,486 2,644 1,564 3,825 9,519 9, ,331 9,094 6,474 10,395 31,294 31, ,788 11,282 6,052 5,580 34,702 34, ,540 2,591 1, ,743 7, (396) 1,649 1,132 (1,167) 1,218 1, (1,502) (1,297) (772) (1,377) (4,948) (4,948) Source: REIS 30

31 AVERAGE RENTS AND VACANCY RATES AT COMMERCIAL/MULTIFAMILY PROPERTIES Average Rents $/Sq Ft $35 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $/Month $0 2002Q1 2002Q3 2003Q1 2003Q3 2004Q1 2004Q3 2005Q1 2005Q3 2006Q1 2006Q3 2007Q1 2007Q3 2008Q1 2008Q3 2009Q1 2009Q3 2010Q1 2010Q3 2011Q1 2011Q3 2012Q1 2012Q3 0 Office Retail Apartment (Right Scale) Average Vacancy Rates percent Q1 2Q1 2002Q3 2Q3 2003Q1 2003Q3 2004Q1 2004Q3 2005Q1 2005Q3 2006Q1 2006Q3 2007Q1 2007Q3 2008Q1 2008Q3 2009Q1 2009Q3 2010Q1 0Q1 2010Q3 0Q3 2011Q1 1Q1 2011Q3 1Q3 2012Q1 2Q1 2012Q3 2Q3 Office Retail Apartment Source: REIS 31

32 AVERAGE RENTS AND VACANCY RATES AT COMMERCIAL/MULTIFAMILY PROPERTIES Average Asking Rents Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Average Vacancy Rates (percent) Q4 Yearoveryear % change Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q4 Yearover-year change APARTMENT (per month) 2002 $ 877 $ 880 $ 886 $ $ 892 $ 894 $ 897 $ 902 1% $ 904 $ 909 $ 917 $ 921 2% $ 925 $ 930 $ 938 $ 944 2% $ 952 $ 962 $ 975 $ 982 4% $ 991 $ 1,002 $ 1,015 $ 1,026 4% $ 1,035 $ 1,046 $ 1,052 $ 1,050 2% $ 1,045 $ 1,039 $ 1,033 $ 1,026-2% $ 1,028 $ 1,032 $ 1,038 $ 1,043 2% $ 1,047 $ 1,053 $ 1,060 $ 1,064 2% $ 1,070 $ 1,082 $ 1,091 $ 1,097 3% OFFICE (per sq. ft) 2002 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ % $ $ $ $ % $ $ $ $ % $ $ $ $ % $ $ $ $ % $ $ $ $ % $ $ $ $ % $ $ $ $ % $ $ $ $ % $ $ $ $ % RETAIL (per sq. ft) 2002 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ % $ $ $ $ % $ $ $ $ % $ $ $ $ % $ $ $ $ % $ $ $ $ % $ $ $ $ % $ $ $ $ % $ $ $ $ % $ $ $ $ % Source: REIS 32

33 MULTIFAMILY BUILDING PERMITS, STARTS AND COMPLETIONS Thousands of Units Permitted, Started and Completed in Structures with 5 or More Units, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate 1968 to present Completions 5+ Permits 5+ Starts 5+ Median Starts (300.5) 1996 to present Completions 5+ Permits 5+ Starts 5+ Median Starts (300.5) Source: U.S. Census Bureau 33

34 MULTIFAMILY BUILDING PERMITS, STARTS AND COMPLETIONS Number of Units Permitted, Started and Completed in Structures with 5 or More Units, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate Thousands of Units Percent Change Permits Starts Completions Permits Starts Completions Year-over-year % -2.4% 1.8% % -2.1% -7.8% % 5.2% 2.6% % 2.4% -9.5% % -3.9% 10.0% % 2.8% -10.1% % -6.0% 10.2% % -5.3% -11.0% % -4.1% 9.6% % -63.4% -6.3% % 7.2% -43.6% % 60.4% -11.3% % 39.8% 21.3% Month-over-month Feb % 24.4% -2.9% Mar % -10.4% 0.0% Apr % 8.8% 25.0% May % -23.9% -28.8% Jun % 20.8% 8.3% Jul % -1.9% 51.1% Aug % -2.8% -8.6% Sep % 19.5% -22.7% Oct % 14.7% 45.0% Nov % -7.1% -28.1% Dec % 33.0% -2.1% Jan % -18.4% 5.6% Feb % 0.7% -13.9% Percent change Feb 2012 to Feb % 18.8% -4.4% Source: U.S. Census Bureau 34

35 NEW PRIVATELY OWNED HOUSING UNITS STARTED, BY PURPOSE Thousands of Units 1- Units in Buildings with 2 or More Units Quarter TOTAL Family Units Total For Rent For Sale Percent for Rent 2006Q % 2006Q % 2006Q % 2006Q % 2007Q % 2007Q % 2007Q % 2007Q % 2008Q % 2008Q % 2008Q % 2008Q % 2009Q % 2009Q % 2009Q % 2009Q % 2010Q % 2010Q % 2010Q % 2010Q % 2011Q % 2011Q % 2011Q % 2011Q % 2012Q % 2012Q % 2012Q % 2012Q % Thousands of units unit for sale unit for rent Q1 2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 35

36 Value of Commercial Real Estate Construction Put- In-Place January 2013 Data The value of selected commercial real estate (CRE)-related private construction put-inplace decreased in the month of January, but was higher than the pace of construction in January The $191.5 billion seasonally adjusted annual rate in January was 0.2 percent lower than the December rate, but 14 percent higher than the January 2012 pace. The pace of construction in January was 31% higher than its recession low and 39% below its pre-recession high. Private MULTIFAMILY new construction activity continued to increase in January. January s seasonally adjusted annual pace of $26.5 billion was 1.7 percent higher than December s $26.0 billion and 55 percent higher than last January s rate. The pace of construction in January was 103% higher than its recession low and 52% below its pre-recession high. adjusted annual pace of $44.9 billion was 3.0 percent higher than last January s rate. The pace of construction in January was 30% higher than its recession low and 50% below its pre-recession high. The value of LODGING construction put-inplace decreased in January. January s seasonally adjusted annual pace of $10.3 billion was 13.3 percent higher than last January s rate. The pace of construction in January was 31% higher than its recession low and 73% below its pre-recession high. The value of MANUFACTURING construction put-in-place fell 2.9 percent in January. January s seasonally adjusted annual pace of $50.6 billion was 13.1 percent higher than last January s rate. The pace of construction in January was 72% higher than its recession low and 22% below its pre-recession high. The value of private OFFICE construction put-in-place increased slightly 0.9 percent in January. January s seasonally adjusted annual pace of $29.9 billion was 26.2 percent higher than last January s rate. The pace of construction in January was 39% higher than its recession low and 49% below its pre-recession high. The value of private HEALTH CARE construction put-in-place increased 2.9 percent in January. January s seasonally adjusted annual pace of $29.4 billion was 1.9 percent lower than last January s rate. The pace of construction in January was 8% higher than its recession low and 27% below its pre-recession high. The value of private RETAIL, WHOLESALE AND SELECTED SERVICES (referred to as COMMERCIAL by the Census Bureau) construction put-in-place increased 0.6 percent in January. January s seasonally 36

37 VALUE OF CONSTRUCTION PUT-IN-PLACE Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate Value of Selected Private CRE-Related Construction Put-In-Place, $millions 350, , , , , ,000 50, Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Year-Over-Year % Change in Trailing Three Month Selected Private CRE-Related Construction 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Source: MBA, U.S. Census Bureau 37

38 VALUE OF CONSTRUCTION PUT-IN-PLACE Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate Value of Selected Private CRE-Related Construction Put-In-Place, $millions Multi family Commercial (e.g. retail & warehouse) 60, ,000 50,000 80,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 60,000 40,000 10,000 20, Office Manufacturing 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, ,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Lodging Health Care 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, ,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, Jan 2001 Jan 2002 Jan 2003 Jan 2004 Jan 2005 Jan 2006 Jan 2007 Jan 2008 Jan 2009 Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2000 Jan 2001 Jan 2002 Jan 2003 Jan 2004 Jan 2005 Jan 2006 Jan 2007 Jan 2008 Jan 2009 Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan Source: MBA, U.S. Census Bureau 38

39 VALUE OF CONSTRUCTION PUT-IN-PLACE Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate Value of Selected Private CRE-Related Construction Put-In-Place, $millions Selected Private CRE-Related Types of Construction Multifamily Commercial Office Lodging Health Care Manufacturing Total % Change Month-over- Month Jan 13,452 35,419 21,979 7,974 27,125 29, , % Feb 13,324 36,061 21,535 7,994 28,110 31, , % Mar 13,690 36,906 21,633 8,140 28,330 35, , % Apr 13,800 38,560 21,631 7,838 27,641 33, , % May 13,634 39,940 22,894 7,968 27,357 38, , % Jun 14,582 40,929 23,366 8,408 28,804 43, , % Jul 15,199 41,713 22,967 7,852 29,082 41, , % Aug 15,931 42,494 23,156 8,089 28,972 44, , % Sep 15,168 40,923 22,645 8,238 29,503 46, , % Oct 15,552 41,129 23,003 8,176 28,577 45, , % Nov 16,364 41,938 22,570 8,696 29,529 44, , % Dec 16,378 41,902 23,001 9,232 29,871 50, , % Jan 17,108 43,557 23,658 9,053 29,961 44, , % Feb 17,784 42,798 23,306 8,976 30,644 46, , % Mar 18,028 43,234 24,552 10,225 29,560 46, , % Apr 19,631 43,382 24,294 10,313 30,377 47, , % May 20,642 44,184 25,335 10,350 30,282 49, , % Jun 21,661 43,374 25,372 10,614 30,207 48, , % Jul 21,906 43,321 25,711 10,843 30,174 46, , % Aug 22,355 44,387 27,084 10,890 31,076 47, , % Sep 22,637 44,575 26,827 10,579 28,577 48, , % Oct 23,851 45,415 28,483 11,270 29,154 48, , % Nov 24,365 44,347 28,999 10,860 28,640 49, , % Dec 26,061 44,616 29,601 10,927 28,542 52, , % Jan 26,492 44,867 29,856 10,261 29,379 50, , % Dec - Jan 1.7% 0.6% 0.9% 6.1% 2.9% 2.9% 0.2% Jan - Jan 54.9% 3.0% 26.2% 13.3% 1.9% 13.1% 13.9% Trough to current 103% 30% 39% 31% 8% 72% 31% Peak to current 52% 50% 49% 73% 27% 22% 39% Source: MBA, U.S. Census Bureau 39

40 QUARTERLY SALES OF LARGER ($2.5 MILLION+) COMMERCIAL/MULTIFAMILY PROPERTIES Billions of dollars, Properties and portfolios $2.5 million and greater $160 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $ Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q4 Apartment Retail Industrial Office Source: Real Capital Analytics. 40

41 QUARTERLY SALES OF LARGER ($2.5 MILLION+) COMMERCIAL/MULTIFAMILY PROPERTIES Billions of dollars, Properties and portfolios $2.5 million and greater Total Percent Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Sales change YTD Q4 Percent Sales change APARTMENT 2007 $ $ $ $ $ % $ % 2008 $ $ $ $ 5.86 $ % $ % 2009 $ 2.90 $ 3.98 $ 4.27 $ 6.20 $ % $ % 2010 $ 5.46 $ 6.06 $ $ $ % $ % 2011 $ 9.26 $ $ $ $ % $ % 2012 $ $ $ $ $ % $ % INDUSTRIAL 2007 $ $ $ $ $ % $ % 2008 $ 9.61 $ 7.02 $ 6.20 $ 4.06 $ % $ % 2009 $ 1.98 $ 3.06 $ 2.36 $ 3.35 $ % $ % 2010 $ 2.97 $ 3.62 $ 4.92 $ 8.51 $ % $ % 2011 $ 4.38 $ $ 7.38 $ 8.59 $ % $ % 2012 $ 5.98 $ 9.00 $ 8.23 $ $ % $ % OFFICE 2007 $ $ $ $ $ % $ % 2008 $ $ $ $ 8.21 $ % $ % 2009 $ 3.92 $ 3.03 $ 5.35 $ 5.17 $ % $ % 2010 $ 5.12 $ 9.84 $ $ $ % $ % 2011 $ $ $ $ $ % $ % 2012 $ $ $ $ $ % $ % RETAIL 2007 $ $ $ $ $ % $ % 2008 $ 9.31 $ 6.46 $ 5.14 $ 4.13 $ % $ % 2009 $ 2.95 $ 2.62 $ 3.28 $ 6.32 $ % $ % 2010 $ 3.57 $ 4.28 $ 6.70 $ 8.34 $ % $ % 2011 $ 6.63 $ $ 8.94 $ $ % $ % 2012 $ $ $ 9.32 $ $ % $ % TOTAL 2007 $ $ $ $ $ % $ % 2008 $ $ $ $ $ % $ % 2009 $ $ $ $ $ % $ % 2010 $ $ $ $ $ % $ % 2011 $ $ $ $ $ % $ % 2012 $ $ $ $ $ % $ % Source: Real Capital Analytics. 41

42 QUARTERLY SALES PRICES OF LARGER ($2.5 MILLION+) COMMERCIAL/MULTIFAMILY PROPERTIES Properties and portfolios $2.5 million and greater Sales price per unit or sq. ft. ($/sq. ft, or $1000/unit for apartment) $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $ Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q4 Apartment Industrial Office Retail Total Capitalization rate 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2001 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q4 Source: Real Capital Analytics. Apartment Industrial Office Retail 42

43 QUARTERLY SALES PRICES OF LARGER ($2.5 MILLION+) COMMERCIAL/MULTIFAMILY PROPERTIES Properties and portfolios $2.5 million and greater Price per unit or sq. ft. Capitalization Rate Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q4 Yearover-year % change Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q4 Yearover-year % change APARTMENT ($1000/unit) 2007 $ 94 $ 95 $ 104 $ 95-17% 6.2% 6.2% 6.3% 6.2% -1% 2008 $ 91 $ 90 $ 107 $ 84-11% 6.3% 6.4% 6.4% 6.5% 6% 2009 $ 81 $ 84 $ 75 $ 82-3% 6.5% 6.7% 7.1% 6.7% 3% 2010 $ 105 $ 88 $ 107 $ % 6.8% 6.8% 6.5% 6.5% -3% 2011 $ 97 $ 93 $ 108 $ 104 4% 6.5% 6.4% 6.3% 6.3% -4% 2012 $ 106 $ 102 $ 106 $ % 6.2% 6.1% 6.2% 6.2% -2% INDUSTRIAL ($/sq. ft) 2007 $ 70 $ 74 $ 75 $ 73 3% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.4% 2% 2008 $ 71 $ 69 $ 67 $ 67-8% 7.2% 7.6% 7.4% 7.7% 5% 2009 $ 65 $ 62 $ 57 $ 48-28% 7.9% 8.1% 8.6% 8.7% 12% 2010 $ 50 $ 54 $ 63 $ 53 9% 8.1% 8.3% 8.5% 8.4% -3% 2011 $ 54 $ 58 $ 53 $ 60 14% 7.9% 7.8% 7.9% 7.8% -7% 2012 $ 66 $ 55 $ 64 $ 63 5% 7.7% 7.6% 7.8% 7.8% 0% OFFICE ($/sq. ft) 2007 $ 237 $ 292 $ 247 $ % 6.7% 6.5% 6.7% 6.8% 0% 2008 $ 225 $ 270 $ 267 $ % 7.1% 7.0% 7.2% 7.3% 7% 2009 $ 235 $ 136 $ 189 $ % 76% 7.6% 78% 7.8% 80% 8.0% 87% 8.7% 20% 2010 $ 136 $ 196 $ 206 $ % 8.5% 8.0% 7.6% 7.4% -15% 2011 $ 207 $ 213 $ 216 $ 208-6% 7.5% 7.5% 7.3% 7.4% -1% 2012 $ 203 $ 209 $ 212 $ % 7.3% 7.2% 7.2% 7.0% -5% RETAIL ($/sq. ft) 2007 $ 173 $ 188 $ 175 $ 170-3% 6.8% 6.7% 6.7% 6.7% -2% 2008 $ 185 $ 203 $ 178 $ 178 5% 6.9% 6.8% 6.9% 7.1% 6% 2009 $ 147 $ 139 $ 147 $ % 7.2% 7.3% 7.9% 8.0% 13% 2010 $ 132 $ 129 $ 144 $ 152 9% 8.1% 7.9% 7.8% 7.7% -4% 2011 $ 162 $ 145 $ 193 $ % 7.6% 7.6% 7.5% 7.4% -4% 2012 $ 159 $ 166 $ 150 $ % 7.3% 7.2% 7.2% 7.3% -1% TOTAL ($1000/unit or $/sq. ft)* 2007 $ 154 $ 155 $ 138 $ % 6.7% 6.5% 6.6% 6.6% -2% 2008 $ 121 $ 131 $ 133 $ 115-7% 6.9% 6.9% 7.0% 7.1% 8% 2009 $ 114 $ 92 $ 103 $ 94-18% 7.3% 7.4% 7.8% 7.9% 11% 2010 $ 98 $ 108 $ 119 $ % 7.8% 7.7% 7.4% 7.4% -7% 2011 $ 115 $ 103 $ 119 $ 123 7% 7.3% 7.4% 7.1% 7.1% -4% 2012 $ 128 $ 112 $ 118 $ % 7.0% 6.9% 6.8% 6.9% -2% Source: Real Capital Analytics. 43

44 COMMERCIAL/MULTIFAMILY PROPERTY PRICES AS REFLECTED IN SELECTED INDICES Re-Indexed Values of the Moody's/RCA CPPI, NCREIF Transaction Based Index, and Green Street Advisors CPPI December 2000 = Dec 2000 Jun 2001 Dec 2001 Jun 2002 Dec 2002 Jun 2003 Dec 2003 Jun 2004 Dec 2004 Jun 2005 Dec 2005 Jun 2006 Dec 2006 Jun 2007 Dec 2007 Jun 2008 Dec 2008 Jun 2009 Dec 2009 Jun 2010 Dec 2010 Jun 2011 Dec 2011 Jun 2012 Dec 2012 Moodys/RCA CPPI NCREIF TBI GSA CPPI January 2007 = Jan 2007 May 2007 Sep 2007 Jan 2008 May 2008 Sep 2008 Jan 2009 May 2009 Sep 2009 Jan 2010 May 2010 Sep 2010 Jan 2011 May 2011 Sep 2011 Jan 2012 May 2012 Sep 2012 Moody's/RCA CPPI NCREIF TBI GSA CPPI Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Real Capital Analytics, Moody's Investors Services, National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries, and Green Street Advisors 44

45 COMMERCIAL/MULTIFAMILY PROPERTY PRICES AS REFLECTED IN SELECTED INDICES Changes in the Moody's/RCA CPPI, NCREIF Transaction Based Index and Green Street Advisors CPPI Moody's/ RCA CPPI Year-over-year Change NCREIF TBI Green Street Advisors CPPI December 0.5% 0.6% 0.4% December 6.9% 5.1% 1.9% December 7.6% 2.8% 10.5% December 13.5% 8.6% 15.9% December 17.7% 22.6% 13.6% December 7.4% 18.9% 11.3% December 12.0% 4.5% 7.5% December -18.4% -14.7% -29.4% December -25.9% -20.0% -2.1% December 9.7% 17.5% 21.6% December 12.1% 4.7% 12.2% December 8.1% 3.7% 6.7% Quarter-over-quarter Month-over month Month-over month Green Street Moody's/RCA CPPI NCREIF TBI Advisors CPPI Moody's/RCA CPPI December 2.8% 12.2% 0.7% 0.9% January 0.2% 0.8% February 1.2% 1.2% March 3.0% -0.1% 3.6% 1.0% April 1.8% 1.5% May 3.1% 1.5% June 3.6% -1.2% 0.1% 0.5% July 0.0% 2.0% August 1.1% 0.9% September 3.6% 10.6% 0.0% 0.6% October 0.0% 1.3% November 0.7% 0.4% December 1.3% -4.2% 0.0% -0.4% January 0.0% 0.8% February 0.3% 2.6% March 3.8% 2.2% 0.7% 0.4% April 0.1% -0.5% May 0.9% -0.2% June 0.8% -0.1% 0.7% 1.5% July 0.0% -1.9% August 1.4% 0.6% September 0.1% 2.4% 1.0% 1.4% October -0.1% -0.5% November 1.4% 0.9% December 3.2% -0.9% 0.0% 2.8% Current price relative to peak 85% 98% 80% Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Real Capital Analytics, Moody's Investors Services, National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries, and Green Street Advisors 45

46 3. Production Quarterly Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations February 4, 2013 Commercial and multifamily mortgage originations increased 49 percent between the third and the fourth quarters of 2012, and were up 49 percent compared to the fourth quarter of 2011, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association s (MBA) Quarterly Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations. MBA s commercial/multifamily mortgage bankers originations index shows originations for the full year 2012 were 24 percent higher than in During the fourth quarter, commercial and multifamily mortgage borrowing and lending hit the highest level since 2007, said Jamie Woodwell, MBA s Vice President of Commercial Real Estate Research. Low interest rates are prompting borrowers to finance, and improving property markets are helping more deals underwrite successfully. The relative strength of commercial and multifamily mortgages as investments continues to fuel lenders appetites. FOURTH QUARTER 2012 ORIGINATIONS 49 PERCENT HIGHER THAN FOURTH QUARTER 2011 The 49 percent overall increase in commercial/multifamily lending volume, when compared to the fourth quarter of 2011, was driven by increases in originations for hotel and office properties. The increase included a 331 percent increase in the dollar volume of loans for hotel properties, a 78 percent increase for office properties, a 49 percent increase for multifamily properties, a 46 percent increase for industrial properties, a five percent increase in retail property loans and a 26 percent decrease in health care loans. Among investor types, the dollar volume of loans originated for conduits for CMBS increased by 228 percent over last year s fourth quarter. There was a 68 percent increase for commercial bank portfolio loans, a 51 percent increase for Government Sponsored Enterprises (or GSEs Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac), and there was an 18 percent increase in volume of loans originated for life insurance companies. Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations Index 2001 quarterly average =

47 FOURTH QUARTER 2012 ORIGINATIONS 49 PERCENT HIGHER THAN THIRD QUARTER 2012 Fourth quarter 2012 commercial and multifamily mortgage originations were 49 percent higher than originations in the third quarter of Compared to the third quarter, fourth quarter originations for hotel properties saw a 99 percent increase. There was an 86 percent increase for industrial properties, a 57 percent increase for health care properties, a 48 percent increase for multifamily properties, a 44 percent increase for office properties and a 22 percent increase for retail properties. Among investor types, between the third and fourth quarters of 2012, loans for conduits for CMBS saw an increase in loan volume of 141 percent, loans for GSEs saw an increase in loan volume of 54 percent, originations for life insurance companies increased 33 percent and loans for commercial bank portfolios increased by 32 percent. In late March MBA will release its Annual Origination Summation report for 2012 with final origination figures for the year. To view the report, please visit the following Web link: arch/commercialoriginations/4q12cmforigi nationssurvey.pdf Detailed statistics on the size and scope of the commercial/multifamily origination market are available from these MBA commercial/multifamily research reports. Commercial Real Estate/Multifamily Finance: Annual Origination Volume Summation, 2011 Commercial Real Estate/Multifamily Finance Firms: Annual Origination Volumes, 2011 Commercial/Multifamily Database FULL YEAR 2012 ORIGINATIONS 24 PERCENT HIGHER THAN FULL YEAR 2011 Based on MBA s commercial and multifamily mortgage bankers originations index, full year 2012 commercial and multifamily mortgage originations were 24 percent higher than originations during the full year of Compared to 2011, full year originations for hotel properties saw a 61 percent increase. There was a 36 percent increase for multifamily properties, a 19 percent increase for retail properties, a 10 percent increase for industrial properties, a nine percent increase for office properties and a six percent increase for health care properties. Among investor types, for the full year 2012 versus 2011, commercial bank portfolios saw an increase in loan originations of 51 percent, loans for conduits for CMBS saw an increase in loan volume of 45 percent, originations for GSEs increased 43 percent and loans for life insurance companies were unchanged. 47

48 Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations Index By Investor Group Origination Volume Index Percent Change, (2001 Avg Qtr = 100) Year-overyear. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q4 Q3-to-Q4 YTD-YTD TOTAL % 12% 11% % -53% -63% % 15% -51% % 63% 36% % -7% 64% % 49% 24% Conduits % 73% 13% % -62% -97% % -33% -85% % 298% 1204% % -26% 91% % 141% 45% Commercial Banks % 17% -13% % -43% -57% % 38% -66% % 102% -25% % -16% 171% % 32% 51% Life Insurance Companies % -27% -3% % -73% -37% % 34% -42% % 42% 155% % -23% 46% % 33% 0% Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac % 7% 36% % -21% 24% % -15% -20% % 68% -19% % 34% 38% % 54% 43% 48

49 Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations Index By Property Type Origination Volume Index Percent Change, (2001 Avg Qtr = 100) Year-overyear. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q4 Q3-to-Q4 YTD-YTD Multifamily % 25% 10% % -32% -42% % 4% -36% % 38% 22% % 29% 59% % 48% 36% Office Retail % -48% -17% % -63% -69% % -12% -62% % 76% 96% % -39% 38% % 44% 9% % 0% -2% % -74% -58% % 33% -50% % 119% 47% % -24% 51% % 22% 19% Industrial % -21% -17% % -69% -51% % 19% -46% % 3% 81% % 51% 42% % 86% 10% Hotel , , % 272% 160% % -66% -89% % 29% -69% % 333% 44% % -52% 89% % 99% 61% Health Care , % -50% 44% % -35% -26% % 58% -59% % 204% -38% % 153% 4% % 57% 6% 49

50 QUARTERLY ISSUANCE OF COMMERCIAL MORTGAGE BACKED SECURITIES (CMBS) and COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE COLLATERALIZED DEBT OBLIGATIONS (CDOs) Billions of Dollars $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $ Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q4 CMBS CRE CDO/Re-Remics Source: Commercial Real Estate Direct 50

51 QUARTERLY ISSUANCE OF COMMERCIAL MORTGAGE BACKED SECURITIES (CMBS) and COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE COLLATERALIZED DEBT OBLIGATIONS (CRE CDOs)/RE-REMICS Billions of Dollars Annual Percent Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total change YTD Q4 Percent Total change U.S. CMBS ISSUANCE 2002 $ 9.74 $ $ $ $ % $ % 2003 $ $ $ $ $ % $ % 2004 $ $ $ $ $ % $ % 2005 $ $ $ $ $ % $ % 2006 $ $ $ $ $ % $ % 2007 $ $ $ $ $ % $ % 2008 $ 5.91 $ 6.24 $ - $ - $ % $ % 2009 $ - $ 1.79 $ - $ 3.18 $ % $ % 2010 $ - $ 2.91 $ 1.93 $ 6.18 $ % $ % 2011 $ 8.24 $ 7.66 $ 9.62 $ 4.46 $ % $ % 2012 $ 5.19 $ $ $ $ % $ % CRE CDO/RE-REMICS ISSUANCE 2002 $ 1.82 $ 3.29 $ 1.88 $ 6.03 $ $ $ 2.37 $ 1.16 $ 1.05 $ 1.22 $ % $ % 2004 $ 1.16 $ 2.48 $ 2.39 $ 1.77 $ % $ % 2005 $ 4.29 $ 4.42 $ 6.72 $ 5.90 $ % $ % 2006 $ 6.43 $ 7.18 $ $ $ % $ % 2007 $ 6.61 $ $ 5.09 $ 3.40 $ % $ % 2008 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ % $ % 2009 $ - $ 0.71 $ 0.32 $ - $ 1.03 N/A $ 1.03 N/A 2010 $ - $ 0.15 $ 0.32 $ 0.94 $ % $ % 2011 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ % $ % 2012 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - N/A $ - N/A TOTAL 2002 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ % $ % 2004 $ $ $ $ $ % $ % 2005 $ $ $ $ $ % $ % 2006 $ $ $ $ $ % $ % 2007 $ $ $ $ $ % $ % 2008 $ 5.91 $ 6.24 $ - $ - $ % $ % 2009 $ - $ 2.51 $ 0.32 $ 3.18 $ % $ % 2010 $ - $ 3.05 $ 2.25 $ 7.11 $ % $ % 2011 $ 8.24 $ 7.66 $ 9.62 $ 4.46 $ % $ % 2012 $ 5.19 $ $ $ $ % $ % Source: Commercial Real Estate Direct 51

52 QUARTERLY COMMERCIAL MORTGAGE COMMITMENTS BY LIFE INSURANCE COMPANIES Billions of Dollars $18 $16 $14 $12 $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 $ Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q4 Source: American Council of Life Insurance Companies (ACLI) a. Annual figures may not equal the sum of quarterly figures due to change in reporting. 52

53 QUARTERLY COMMERCIAL MORTGAGE COMMITMENTS BY LIFE INSURANCE COMPANIES Billions of Dollars Annual (a) Percent Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total change YTD Q4 Percent Total change 2001 $ 5.95 $ 7.56 $ 7.33 $ 6.08 $ $ $ 5.69 $ 6.34 $ 7.12 $ 9.17 $ % $ % 2003 $ 7.22 $ 7.88 $ 9.28 $ 8.30 $ % $ % 2004 $ 7.46 $ $ $ 8.91 $ % $ % 2005 $ 7.33 $ $ $ $ % $ % 2006 $ 9.76 $ $ $ $ % $ % 2007 $ 9.29 $ $ $ $ % $ % 2008 $ 9.59 $ 6.03 $ 7.03 $ 4.02 $ % $ % 2009 $ 2.62 $ 4.63 $ 4.30 $ 4.83 $ % $ % 2010 $ 4.90 $ 5.94 $ 9.47 $ $ % $ % 2011 $ 7.83 $ $ $ $ % $ % 2012 $ 9.18 $ $ $ $ % $ % Source: American Council of Life Insurance Companies (ACLI) a. Annual figures may not equal the sum of quarterly figures due to changes in reporting. 53

54 4. Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding March 11, 2013 The level of commercial/multifamily mortgage debt outstanding increased by $21.8 billion, or 0.9 percent, in the fourth quarter of 2012, as all four major investor groups increased their holdings, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). On a year-over-year basis, the amount of mortgage debt outstanding at the end of 2012 was $29.7 billion higher than at the end of 2011, an increase of 1.2 percent. Multifamily mortgage debt outstanding rose to $846 billion, an increase of $11.8 billion or 1.4 percent from the third quarter, and $35.7 billion or 4.4 percent from the fourth quarter of The appetite among lenders and investors for commercial and multifamily mortgages grew during the fourth quarter, said Jamie Woodwell, MBA s Vice President of Commercial Real Estate Research. The fourth quarter saw the largest increase in commercial and multifamily mortgage debt outstanding since Bank-held commercial mortgages increased by the largest amount since The balance of Commercial Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding By Investor Group, Fourth Quarter

55 loans held in CMBS rose by the most since 2007 and the balances of loans held by life companies and held or guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and FHA continued their multi-year increases. The analysis summarizes the holdings of loans or, if the loans are securitized, the form of the security. For example, many life insurance companies invest both in whole loans for which they hold the mortgage note (and which appear in this data under Life Insurance Companies) and in commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) and other asset backed securities (ABS) for which the security issuers and trustees hold the note (and which appear here under CMBS, CDO and other ABS issues). Commercial banks continue to hold the largest share of commercial/multifamily mortgages, $836 billion, or 35 percent of the total. CMBS, CDO and other ABS issues are the second largest holders of commercial/multifamily mortgages, holding $561 billion, or 23 percent of the total. Agency and GSE portfolios and MBS hold $376 billion, or 16 percent of the total, and life insurance companies hold $326 billion, or 14 percent of the total. Many life insurance companies, banks and the GSEs purchase and hold CMBS, CDO and other ABS issues. These loans appear in the CMBS, CDO and other ABS categories. MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DEBT Looking solely at multifamily mortgages, agency and GSE portfolios and MBS hold the largest share, with $376 billion or 45 percent of the total multifamily debt outstanding. They are followed by banks and thrifts with $234 billion, or 28 percent of the total. CMBS, CDO and other ABS issues hold $82 billion, or 10 percent of the total; state and local governments hold $62 billion, or 7 percent of the total; life insurance companies hold $51 billion, or 6 percent of the total; and the nonfarm noncorporate business holds $15 billion, or 2 percent of the total. CHANGES IN COMMERCIAL/MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DEBT In the fourth quarter of 2012, bank and thrifts saw the largest increase in dollar terms in their holdings of commercial/multifamily mortgage debt an increase of $17.1 billion or 2.1 percent. Agency and GSE portfolios and MBS increased their holdings of commercial/multifamily mortgages by $7.6 billion or 2.0 percent. Finance companies saw the largest decrease of $6 billion or 11.3 percent. In percentage terms, bank and thrifts recorded the largest increase in holdings of commercial/multifamily mortgages, at 2.1 percent. The household sector saw the biggest decrease, at 21.3 percent. CHANGES IN MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DEBT The $12 billion increase in multifamily mortgage debt outstanding between the third quarter and fourth quarter of 2012 represents a 1.4 percent increase. In dollar terms, agency and GSE portfolios and MBS saw the largest increase in their holdings of multifamily mortgage debt, an increase of $7.6 billion, or 2.0 percent. Commercial banks increased their holdings of multifamily mortgage debt by $6.2 billion, or 2.7 percent. Private pension funds increased by $391 million, or 11.6 percent. State and local government saw the biggest decrease in their holdings of multifamily mortgage debt, by $1.4 billion or 2.3 percent. In percentage terms, private pension funds recorded the largest increase in holdings of multifamily mortgages, at 11.6 percent. Finance companies saw the biggest decrease, at 7.7 percent. CHANGES IN COMMERCIAL/MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DEBT DURING 2012 Between December 2011 and December 2012, commercial banks and thrifts saw the 55

56 largest increase in dollar terms in their holdings of commercial/multifamily mortgage debt - an increase of $42 billion, or 5.3 percent. CMBS, CDO and other ABS issues decreased their holdings of commercial/multifamily mortgages by $31 billion or 5.2 percent. apartment buildings and other incomeproducing properties that rely on rents and leases to make their payments. In percentage terms, the other (non life) insurance companies saw the biggest increase in their holdings of commercial/multifamily mortgages, an increase of 12 percent. Household sector saw the biggest decrease of 49 percent. CHANGES IN MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DEBT DURING 2012 The $36 billion increase in multifamily mortgage debt outstanding during 2012 represents a 4 percent increase. In dollar terms, agency and GSE portfolios and MBS saw the largest increase in their holdings of multifamily mortgage debt - an increase of $30.8 billion or 9 percent. CMBS, CDO and other ABS issues saw a decrease of $9.5 billion in their holdings or 10 percent. In percentage terms, private pension funds recorded the biggest increase in their holdings of multifamily mortgages, 32 percent, while finance companies saw the biggest decrease, 22 percent. MBA s analysis is based on data from the Federal Reserve Board s Flow of Funds Account of the United States and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation s Quarterly Banking Profile. More information on the construction of this data series is contained in Appendix A in the report. In the fourth quarter of 2010, MBA improved its reporting of commercial and multifamily mortgage debt outstanding. The new reporting excludes two categories of bank loans that had formerly been included loans for acquisition, development and construction and loans collateralized by owner-occupied commercial properties. By excluding these loan types, the analysis here more accurately reflects the balance of loans supported by office buildings, retail centers, 56

57 COMMERCIAL AND MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DEBT Total Commercial and Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding, by Quarter ($millions) 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, , Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 MF Commercial Source: MBA, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and FDIC 57

58 QUARTERLY COMMERCIAL AND MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DEBT Commercial and Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding, by Sector Mortgage Debt Outstanding 2012 Q4 ($millions) % of total 2012 Q3 ($millions) % of total ($millions) Change Percent Sector Share of $ Change Bank and Thrift 835, % 818, % 17, % 78.6% CMBS, CDO and other ABS issues 560, % 556, % 4, % 20.4% Agency and GSE portfolios and MBS 376, % 368, % 7, % 34.7% Life insurance companies 325, % 322, % 2, % 13.0% Federal government 81, % 82, % % -2.1% State and local government 74, % 76, % -1, % -8.3% Finance companies 47, % 53, % -6, % -27.9% REITs 33, % 33, % % 1.1% Nonfarm noncorporate business 26, % 26, % % 1.1% Private pension funds 12, % 12, % % -1.6% Nonfinancial corporate business 9, % 10, % % -0.7% State and local government retirement funds 6, % 6, % % -0.7% Household sector 6, % 7, % -1, % -7.8% Other insurance companies 5, % 5, % 6 0.1% 0.0% TOTAL 2,402,946 2,381,159 21, % Source: MBA, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and FDIC Note: Beginning with the Q release, MBA's analysis of mortgage debt outstanding more accurately reflects the true level of mortgages backed by income-producing commercial and multifamily properties. Previous releases do not incorporate these improvements. 58

59 YEAR END COMMERCIAL AND MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DEBT Commercial and Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding, by Sector Mortgage Debt Outstanding 2012 Q4 % of ($millions) total 2011 Q4 ($millions) % of total Change ($millions) Percent Sector Share of $ Change Bank and Thrift 835, % 793, % 42, % 141.6% CMBS, CDO and other ABS issues 560, % 591, % -30, % % Agency and GSE portfolios and MBS 376, % 345, % 30, % 104.0% Life insurance companies 325, % 312, % 13, % 44.4% Federal government 81, % 81, % % 1.2% State and local government 74, % 78, % -3, % -12.7% Finance companies 47, % 61, % -14, % -47.9% REITs 33, % 33, % % -2.1% Nonfarm noncorporate business 26, % 26, % % 1.3% Private pension funds 12, % 13, % -1, % -4.1% Nonfinancial corporate business 9, % 10, % % -2.1% State and local government retirement funds 6, % 7, % % -1.5% Household sector 6, % 12, % -6, % -20.7% Other insurance companies 5, % 4, % % 2.0% TOTAL 2,402,946 2,373,281 29, % Source: MBA, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and FDIC Note: Beginning with the Q release, MBA's analysis of mortgage debt outstanding more accurately reflects the true level of mortgages backed by income-producing commercial and multifamily properties. Previous releases do not incorporate these improvements. 59

60 COMMERCIAL AND MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DEBT Total Commercial and Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding, by Sector ($millions) Bank and Thrift 835,862 CM BS, CDO and other ABS issues 560,556 Agency and GSE portfolios and M BS Life insurance companies 325, ,440 Federal government State and local government Finance companies REITs Nonfarm noncorporate business Private pension funds Nonfinancial corporate business State and local government retirement funds Household sector Other insurance companies 81,655 74,550 47,565 33,351 26,506 12,102 9,952 6,849 6,273 5, , , , , , , , , , Q3 2012Q4 Source: MBA, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and FDIC 60

61 COMMERCIAL AND MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DEBT Total Commercial and Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding, by Selected Sector by Quarter ($millions) 900, , , , , , , , , Q1 1996Q1 1997Q1 1998Q1 1999Q1 2000Q1 2001Q1 2002Q1 2003Q1 2004Q1 2005Q1 2006Q1 2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 Agency and GSE portfolios and MBS CMBS, CDO and other ABS issues Bank and Thrift Life insurance companies Source: MBA, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and FDIC 61

62 COMMERCIAL AND MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE FLOWS Net Change in Commercial and Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding, by Quarter ($millions) 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 (20,000) (40,000) 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 MF Commercial TOTAL Source: MBA, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and FDIC 62

63 COMMERCIAL AND MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE FLOWS Net Change in Commercial and Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding, by Sector ($millions) Bank and Thrift 17,129 Agency and GSE portfolios and M BS 7,560 CM BS, CDO and other ABS issues Life insurance companies 2,835 4,447 Nonfarm noncorporate business REITs Other insurance companies State and local government retirement funds Nonfinancial corporate business Private pension funds Federal government Household sector State and local government (148) (156) (340) (450) (1,701) (1,812) Finance companies (6,072) (20,000) (15,000) (10,000) (5,000) 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20, Q3 2012Q4 Source: MBA, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and FDIC 63

64 MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DEBT 64

65 MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DEBT Total Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding, by Quarter ($millions) 900, , , , , , , , , Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 Source: MBA, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and FDIC 65

66 QUARTERLY MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DEBT Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding, by Sector Mortgage Debt Outstanding 2012 Q4 % of ($millions) total 2012 Q3 ($millions) % of total Change ($millions) Percent Sector Share of $ Change Agency and GSE portfolios and MBS 376, % 368, % 7, % 64.3% Bank and Thrift 234, % 227, % 6, % 53.1% CMBS, CDO and other ABS issues 81, % 82, % -1, % -10.5% State and local government 61, % 63, % -1, % -12.3% Life insurance companies 51, % 51, % % 3.2% Nonfarm noncorporate business 14, % 14, % % 1.2% Federal government 13, % 13, % % 0.3% Private pension funds 3, % 3, % % 3.3% State and local government retirement funds 3, % 3, % % -0.6% Finance companies 2, % 3, % % -2.0% REITs 1, % 1, % % 0.0% Nonfinancial corporate business % % % -0.1% TOTAL 845, ,947 11, % Source: MBA, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and FDIC Note: Beginning with the Q release, MBA's analysis of mortgage debt outstanding more accurately reflects the true level of mortgages backed by income-producing commercial and multifamily properties. Previous releases do not incorporate these improvements. 66

67 YEAR END MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DEBT Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding, by Sector Mortgage Debt Outstanding 2012 Q4 % of ($millions) total 2011 Q4 ($millions) % of total Change ($millions) Percent Sector Share of $ Change Agency and GSE portfolios and MBS 376, % 345, % 30, % 86.5% Bank and Thrift 234, % 218, % 15, % 43.5% CMBS, CDO and other ABS issues 81, % 91, % -9, % -26.6% State and local government 61, % 64, % -2, % -8.4% Life insurance companies 51, % 49, % 2, % 5.7% Nonfarm noncorporate business 14, % 14, % % 0.6% Federal government 13, % 14, % % -0.9% Private pension funds 3, % 2, % % 2.5% State and local government retirement funds 3, % 3, % % -0.6% Finance companies 2, % 3, % % -2.3% REITs 1, % 1, % % 0.1% Nonfinancial corporate business % % % -0.1% TOTAL 845, ,030 35, % Source: MBA, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and FDIC Note: Beginning with the Q release, MBA's analysis of mortgage debt outstanding more accurately reflects the true level of mortgages backed by income-producing commercial and multifamily properties. Previous releases do not incorporate these improvements. 67

68 MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DEBT Total Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding, by Sector ($millions) Agency and GSE portfolios and M BS 376,440 Bank and Thrift 234,036 CM BS, CDO and other ABS issues State and local government Life insurance companies 61,908 51,395 81,556 Nonfarm noncorporate business Federal government Private pension funds State and local government retirement funds Finance companies REITs Nonfinancial corporate business 14,691 13,768 3,753 3,211 2,823 1, , , , , , , , , Q3 2012Q4 Source: MBA, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and FDIC 68

69 MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DEBT Total Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding, by Selected Sector by Quarter ($millions) 400, , , , , , ,000 50, Q1 1981Q1 1982Q1 1983Q1 1984Q1 1985Q1 1986Q1 1987Q1 1988Q1 1989Q1 1990Q1 1991Q1 1992Q1 1993Q1 1994Q1 1995Q1 1996Q1 1997Q1 1998Q1 1999Q1 2000Q1 2001Q1 2002Q1 2003Q1 2004Q1 2005Q1 2006Q1 2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 Agency and GSE portfolios and MBS CMBS, CDO and other ABS issues State and local government Bank and Thrift Life insurance companies Source: MBA, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and FDIC 69

70 MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE FLOWS Net Change in Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding, by Quarter ($millions) 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 (5,000) 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 Source: MBA. Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and FDIC 70

71 MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE FLOWS Net Change in Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding, by Sector ($millions) Agency and GSE portfolios and M BS 7,560 Bank and Thrift 6,249 Private pension funds Life insurance companies Nonfarm noncorporate business Federal government REITs Nonfinancial corporate business State and local government retirement funds Finance companies CM BS, CDO and other ABS issues State and local government -1,236-1,444 (4,000) (2,000) 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10, Q3 2012Q4 Source: MBA, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and FDIC 71

72 APPENDIX A MBA s analysis is based on data from the Federal Reserve Board s Flow of Funds Account of the United States and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation s Quarterly Banking Profile MBA s analysis of commercial and multifamily mortgage debt outstanding was changed in the fourth quarter of 2010 to exclude two categories of loans that had previously been included; a. loans for acquisition, development and construction and b. loans collateralized by owneroccupied commercial properties. By excluding these loan types, MBA s analysis more accurately reflects the balance of loans supported by office buildings, retail centers, apartment buildings and other income-producing properties that rely on rents and leases to make their payments. For the fourth quarter 2012, the Federal Reserve Board s Flow of Funds Accounts data attributed $1.5 trillion of outstanding commercial and multifamily mortgages to banks and thrifts. Comparing this number to the FDIC s Quarterly Banking Profile for the same period, one sees that banks and thrifts held $234.0 billion of multifamily mortgages and $1,072.6 billion of non-farm nonresidential mortgages, of which 56 percent or $601.8 billion were incomeproducing. The combined $836 billion of mortgages backed by multifamily and other income-producing properties is included in this analysis. The $1.5 trillion total reported by the Federal Reserve also includes $470.7 billion of loans collateralized by owneroccupied commercial properties and another $189.2 billion of loans backed by acquisition, development and construction projects (including those for single-family development), which are excluded in from this analysis. Estimated Components of Federal Reserve s Flow of Funds Commercial and Multifamily Mortgages Held by Banks and Thrifts ($Billions) Multifamily mortgages, $234.0 Incomeproducing commercial mortgages, $601.8 Construction loans, $189.2 Source: MBA, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and FDIC Owneroccupied commercial mortgages, $

73 Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Delinquencies Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Delinquency Rates Continued Down in Fourth Quarter March 5, 2013 Delinquency rates continued to decline for commercial and multifamily mortgage loans in the fourth quarter of 2012, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association s (MBA) Commercial/Multifamily Delinquency Report. The delinquency rates for commercial and multifamily mortgages dropped again in the fourth quarter, said Jamie Woodwell, MBA s Vice President of Commercial Real Estate Research. The continued decline is being driven by improving property fundamentals and a strong finance market. During the fourth quarter of 2012, the 60+ day delinquency rate for commercial and multifamily mortgages held in life company portfolios decreased 0.04 percentage points to 0.08 percent. The 60+ day delinquency rate for multifamily loans held or insured by Freddie Mac decreased 0.08 percentage points to 0.19 percent. The 60+ day delinquency rate for multifamily loans held or insured by Fannie Mae decreased 0.04 percentage points to 0.24 percent. The 90+ day delinquency rate for loans held by FDIC-insured banks and thrifts decreased 0.32 percentage points to 2.62 percent. The 30+ day delinquency rate for loans held in commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) decreased 0.13 percentage points to 8.73 percent. The fourth quarter 2012 delinquency rate for commercial and multifamily mortgages held in life insurance company portfolios was 7.45 percentage points lower than the series high (7.53 percent, reached during the second quarter of 1992). The delinquency rate for multifamily loans held by Freddie Mac was 6.62 percentage points lower than the series high (6.81 percent, reached in the fourth quarter of 1992). The delinquency rate for multifamily loans held by Fannie Mae was 3.38 percentage points below the series high (3.62 percent, reached during the fourth quarter of 1991). The rate for commercial and multifamily mortgages held by banks and thrifts was 3.96 percentage points lower than the series high (6.58 percent, reached in the second quarter of 1991). The rate for loans held in CMBS was 0.29 percentage points below the series high (9.02 percent, reached in the second quarter of 2011). Please note: Today MBA also released a DataNote covering the performance of commercial and multifamily mortgages at commercial banks and thrifts through the credit crunch, recession and through 2012 The DataNote found that commercial and multifamily mortgages had the lowest charge-off rates of any major loan type and had delinquency rates lower than the overall book of loans and leases held by banks and thrifts. The DataNote can be found at: Construction and development loans are not included in the numbers presented here, but are included in many regulatory definitions of commercial real estate despite the fact that they are often backed by single-family residential development projects rather than by office buildings, apartment buildings, shopping centers or other income-producing properties. The FDIC delinquency rates for bank and thrift held mortgages reported here do include loans backed by owneroccupied commercial properties. The MBA analysis looks at commercial/multifamily delinquency rates for five of the largest investor-groups: commercial banks and thrifts, commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), life insurance companies, Fannie Mae and 73

74 Freddie Mac. Together these groups hold more than 80 percent of commercial/multifamily mortgage debt outstanding. The analysis incorporates the same measures used by each individual investor group to track the performance of their loans. Because each investor group tracks delinquencies in its own way, delinquency rates are not comparable from one group to another. Based on the unpaid principal balance (UPB) of loans, delinquency rates for each group at the end of the fourth quarter were as follows: Life company portfolios: 0.08 percent (60 or more delinquent); Freddie Mac: 0.19 percent (60 or more days delinquent); Fannie Mae: 0.24 percent (60 or more days delinquent); Banks and thrifts: 2.62 percent (90 or more days delinquent or in nonaccrual); CMBS: 8.73 percent (30 or more days delinquent or in REO). Differences between the delinquency measures are detailed in Appendix A. 74

75 CHART 1. COMMERCIAL/MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DELINQUENCY RATES AMONG MAJOR INVESTOR GROUPS Selected delinquency rates at the end of the period NOTE: Delinquency rates shown are NOT comparable between investor groups. These rates show how performance of loans for each investor groups has varied over time, but cannot be used to compare one investor group to another. 8.0% 10.0% 7.0% 9.0% 8.0% 6.0% Banks & Thrifts (90+ days) 7.0% CMBS (30+ days and REO) 5.0% 6.0% 4.0% 5.0% 3.0% 2.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q1 0.0% Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q1 8.0% 8.0% 70% 7.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% Life Companies (60+ days) 6.0% 5.0% Fannie Mae* (60+ days) Freddie Mac^ (60+ days) 4.0% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q1 0.0% Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q1 Sources: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC and Intex Solutions, Inc., American Council of Life Insurers, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, OFHEO and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation 75

76 CHART 2. COMMERCIAL/MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DELINQUENCY RATES AMONG MAJOR INVESTOR GROUPS, PRESENT Selected delinquency rates at the end of the period NOTE: Delinquency rates shown are NOT comparable between investor groups. These rates show how performance of loans for each investor groups has varied over time, but cannot be used to compare one investor group to another. 5.0% 10.0% 9.0% 4.0% Banks & Thrifts (90+ days) 8.0% CMBS (30+ days and REO) 7.0% 3.0% 6.0% 5.0% 2.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q1 0.0% Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q1 1.0% 1.0% 0.8% Life Companies (60+ days) 0.8% Fannie Mae* (60+ days) Freddie Mac^ (60+ days) 0.6% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q1 Sources: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC and Intex Solutions, Inc., American Council of Life Insurers, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, OFHEO and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation 76

77 COMMERCIAL/MULTIFAMILY MORTGAGE DELINQUENCY RATES AMONG MAJOR INVESTOR GROUPS Selected delinquency rates at the end of the period NOTE: Delinquency rates shown are NOT comparable between investor groups. These rates show how performance of loans for each investor groups has varied over time, but cannot be used to compare one investor group to another. Life Companies Banks & Thrifts CMBS Fannie Mae Freddie Mac (30+ days and REO) (60+ days) (60+ days) (60+days) (90+ days) Year-end Q4 n.a. 1.79% 0.68% 1.96% 1.63% Q4 0.39% 0.90% 0.37% 0.96% 1.19% Q4 0.54% 0.48% 0.29% 0.37% 0.93% Q4 0.51% 0.25% 0.12% 0.14% 0.71% Q4 0.81% 0.28% 0.04% 0.04% 0.67% Q4 1.26% 0.12% 0.33% 0.15% 0.90% Q4 1.47% 0.28% 0.13% 0.13% 0.86% Q4 1.72% 0.12% 0.13% 0.05% 0.78% Q4 1.29% 0.08% 0.10% 0.06% 0.61% Q4 0.84% 0.05% 0.27% 0.00% 0.54% Q4 0.41% 0.02% 0.08% 0.05% 0.60% Q4 0.39% 0.01% 0.08% 0.02% 0.85% Q4 1.17% 0.07% 0.30% 0.01% 1.65% Q4 5.70% 0.19% 0.63% 0.20% 3.94% Q4 8.69% 0.19% 0.71% 0.26% 4.21% Q4 8.56% 0.17% 0.59% 0.22% 3.58% Q4 8.73% 0.08% 0.24% 0.19% 2.62% Quarter-end Q4 5.70% 0.19% 0.63% 0.20% 3.94% Q1 6.81% 0.31% 0.79% 0.22% 4.27% Q2 8.22% 0.29% 0.80% 0.22% 4.34% Q3 8.52% 0.22% 0.65% 0.31% 4.41% Q4 8.69% 0.19% 0.71% 0.26% 4.21% Q1 8.86% 0.14% 0.64% 0.36% 4.21% Q2 9.02% 0.12% 0.46% 0.31% 3.97% Q3 8.92% 0.19% 0.57% 0.33% 3.77% Q4 8.56% 0.17% 0.59% 0.22% 3.58% Q1 8.85% 0.14% 0.37% 0.23% 3.45% Q2 8.97% 0.15% 0.29% 0.27% 3.11% Q3 8.86% 0.12% 0.28% 0.27% 2.94% Q4 8.73% 0.08% 0.24% 0.19% 2.62% Sources: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC and Intex Solutions, Inc., American Council of Life Insurers, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, OFHEO and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. Note: Differences between the delinquency measures are detailed in Appendix A. 77

78 APPENDIX A SOURCES & MEASURES OF DELINQUENCIES Commercial Mortgage-backed Securities (CMBS) Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC and Intex Solutions, Inc. The delinquency rate for CMBS loans covers loans 30+ days delinquent, including those in foreclosure, and real estate owned (REO). The CMBS rate is the only one to include REO in either the numerator or the denominator. This series includes all private-label (non-ginnie Mae, Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac issued) deals that are currently outstanding, including both fixedand floating-rate deals. In reports released prior to Q3 2011, this series included only deals issued prior to Beginning with the Q release all deals are included regardless of issue date. Life Companies Source: American Council of Life Insurers The delinquency rate for life insurance company loans covers loans 60+ days delinquent, including those in foreclosure, and does not include real estate owned (REO) in either the numerator or the denominator. Fannie Mae Source: Fannie Mae Monthly Volume Summary and Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight Annual Reports to Congress The delinquency rate for multifamily loans either held in portfolio or securitized and guaranteed by the company covers loans 60+ days delinquent, including those in foreclosure, and does not include real estate owned (REO) in either the numerator or the denominator. The company was unable to provide December delinquency figures for the years 2000 to 2004, so the fourth quarter numbers presented for those years are November, rather December, figures. In January 2011, Fannie Mae revised its 2010 monthly multifamily delinquency rates for all periods presented to exclude multifamily borrowers who have entered into a forbearance agreement and are abiding by the terms of the agreement, but had been previously included in the multifamily delinquency rates due to an error. Freddie Mac Source: Freddie Mac Monthly Volume Summary and Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight Annual Reports to Congress The delinquency rate for multifamily loans either held in portfolio or securitized and guaranteed by the company covers loans 60+ days delinquent, including those in foreclosure, and does not include real estate owned (REO) in either the numerator or the denominator. Freddie Mac notes that their delinquency rate [e]xcludes mortgage loans whose original contractual terms have been modified under an agreement with the borrower as long as the borrower complies with the modified contractual terms. As an example, after Hurricane Katrina, Freddie Mac modified a number of loans affected by the storms. In May 2010, Freddie Mac returned to reporting multifamily delinquencies as those loans 60+ days delinquent. FDIC-insured Banks & Thrifts Source: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation The delinquency rate for FDIC banks and thrifts covers loans 90+ days delinquent, including those in foreclosure and in nonaccrual status, and does not include real estate owned (REO) in either the numerator or the denominator. The universe of loans covered by this series also includes a large number of owner-occupied commercial loans loans supported by the income of the resident business rather than by rent and lease payments. In a 2007 analysis by MBA of the ten banks with the largest commercial mortgage portfolios, approximately half, in dollar volume, of their commercial (non-multifamily) loan portfolio was comprised of these owneroccupied properties. Data are available for life companies, FDICinsured banks and thirfts, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac since 1990 and CMBS since

79 COMMERCIAL MORTGAGE-BACKED SECURITIES (CMBS) Billions of Dollars Q4 Year-Over-Year Change Percent Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total change Q3-to-Q4 Change Percent Total change U.S. CMBS 1998 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ % $ % 2000 $ $ $ $ $ % $ % 2001 $ $ $ $ $ % $ % 2002 $ $ $ $ $ % $ % 2003 $ $ $ $ $ % $ % 2004 $ $ $ $ $ % $ % 2005 $ $ $ $ $ % $ % 2006 $ $ $ $ $ % $ % 2007 $ $ $ $ $ % $ % 2008 $ $ $ $ $ (33.13) -4% $ (10.78) -1.4% 2009 $ $ $ $ $ (47.63) -6% $ (13.16) -1.8% 2010 $ $ $ $ $ (49.43) -7% $ (6.28) -0.9% 2011 $ $ $ $ $ (55.72) -8% $ (13.91) -2.2% 2012 $ $ $ $ $ (49.23) -8% $ (5.97) -1.0% Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, and Intex Solutions, Inc. In reports released prior to Q3 2011, this series included only deals issued prior to Beginning with the Q release all deals are included regardless of issue date. 79

80 COMMERCIAL MORTGAGE-BACKED SECURITIES (CMBS) Billions of Dollars $900 $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $ Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, and Intex Solutions, Inc. 80

81 COMMERCIAL MORTGAGE-BACKED SECURITIES (CMBS) MARKET COMPOSITION Composition of CMBS Outstanding, as of December 31, 2012 Total CMBS Outstanding $ billion By Property Types: Office 31.0% Multifamily 12.9% Retail 31.5% Industrial 5.0% Hotel 11.1% Self-Storage 1.8% Healthcare 0.4% Other 6.3% Self- Storage, 1.8% Hotel, 11.1% Industrial, 5.0% Healthcare, 0.4% Other, 6.3% Office, 31.0% By Amortization: Fully Amortizing 36.3% All Interest-Only (IO) 63.7% Full Term IO 33.4% Part Term IO 30.3% Part Term IO, 30.3% Retail, 31.5% Multifamily, 12.9% Fully Amortizing, 36.3% By Percent Defeased 4.0% By Delinquency: Current 91.27% 30-day delinquent 0.61% 60-day delinquent 0.31% 90+day delinquent 2.48% Foreclosure/REO 5.32% Full Term IO, 33.4% Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, and Intex Solutions, Inc. 81

82 CMBS SPREADS COMMERCIAL MORTGAGE BACKED SECURITIES (CMBS) NEW ISSUE SPREADS TO SWAP RATES (in Basis Points) Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Super Senior AAA AA A BBB Source: JP Morgan Securities AAA CMBS SPREADS (in Basis Points) 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, New Super Senior AAA Legacy Super Senior AAA Source: JP Morgan Securities 82

83 CMBS AND OTHER SPREADS Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities (CMBS) and selected other CRE mortgage bonds Spreads to Swap Rates (in Basis Points) New Issue CMBS Super Senior AAA AA A BBB Legacy Super Senior AAA 10/9.5 DUS 10yr Freddie K A1 End of Q End of Q End of Q End of Q End of Q End of Q Oct Oct Oct Oct Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Dec Dec Dec Dec Jan Jan Jan Jan Feb Feb Feb Feb Mar Mar Source: JP Morgan Securities 83

84 5. Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Servicing Volumes Year-End 2012 The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its year-end ranking of commercial and multifamily mortgage servicers as of the end of December 31, At the top of the list of firms is Wells Fargo with $429.1 billion in U.S. master and primary servicing, followed by PNC Real Estate/Midland Loan Services with $337.6 billion, Berkadia Commercial Mortgage LLC with $197.3 billion, Bank of America Merrill Lynch with $112.5 billion, and KeyBank Real Estate Capital with $101.2 billion. Wells Fargo, PNC/Midland, Berkadia, Bank of America Merrill Lynch and KeyBank are the largest master and primary servicers of commercial/multifamily loans in U.S. CMBS, CDO and other ABS; PNC/Midland, MetLife, Prudential Asset Resources, GEMSA Loan Services, L.P., and Northwestern Mutual are the largest servicers for life companies; PNC/Midland, Wells Fargo, Walker & Dunlop, LLC., Berkeley Point Capital, LLC, and Berkadia are the largest Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac servicers. PNC/Midland ranks as the top master and primary servicer of commercial bank and savings institution loans; GEMSA the top credit company, pension funds, REITs, and investment funds servicer; PNC/Midland the top FHA and Ginnie Mae servicer; Wells Fargo the top for loans held in warehouse facilities; and Berkadia the top for other investor type loans. A primary servicer is generally responsible for collecting loan payments from borrowers, performing property inspections and other property-related activities. A master servicer is typically responsible for collecting cash and data from primary servicers and then providing that cash and data, through trustees, to investors. Unless otherwise noted, MBA tabulations that combine different roles do not double-count loans for which a single servicer performs multiple roles. Specific breakouts include: Total U.S. Master and Primary Servicing Volume U.S. Commercial Mortgage-backed Securities (CMBS), Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs) and Other Asset-Backed Securities (ABS) Master and Primary Servicing Volume U.S. Commercial Banks and Savings Institution Volume U.S. Credit Company, Pension Funds, REITs, and Investment Funds Volume Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Servicing Volume Federal Housing Administration (FHA) Servicing Volume U.S. Life Company Servicing Volume U.S. Warehouse Volume U.S. Other Investor Volume U.S. CMBS Named Special Servicing Volume U.S. Named Special Servicing Volumes Across All Investor Groups Total Non-U.S. Master and Primary Servicing Volume MBA also asked firms to provide information about loans on which they are the named special servicer that is, where the firm stands ready to service the loan should special problems develop, such as delinquency. The largest named special servicers were CWCapital Asset Management LLC, LNR Partners, Inc., and C-III Asset Management LLC. LNR Partners is the largest special servicer for CMBS loans. 84

85 The MBA survey also collected servicing volumes for loans on commercial/multifamily properties located outside the United States. Situs ranks as the largest master and primary servicer of non-u.s. commercial/multifamily mortgages, followed by Hatfield Philips International, an LNR Property Company, GEMSA, PNC/Midland, and Manulife Financial/John Hancock. 85

86 Year-End Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Servicing Volumes as of December 31, 2012 Total US Collateral Total Primary & Master Servicing TOTAL LOANS Rank Company Amount ($ millions) Number of loans Avg. Loan Size ($m) 1 Wells Fargo $429,131 35,215 $ PNC Real Estate / Midland Loan Services $337,585 36,848 $9.2 3 Berkadia Commercial Mortgage LLC $197,262 28,047 $7.0 4 Bank of America Merrill Lynch $112,482 9,376 $ KeyBank Real Estate Capital $101,169 10,935 $9.3 6 GEMSA Loan Services, L.P. $95,634 8,787 $ Prudential Asset Resources $69,194 5,372 $ NorthMarq Capital, LLC $41,258 5,721 $7.2 9 Walker & Dunlop, LLC $35,169 4,877 $ MetLife $34, $ HFF, LP $31,317 2,280 $ Grandbridge Real Estate Capital LLC $29,837 5,470 $ Trimont Real Estate Advisors $28,548 1,519 $ Berkeley Point Capital LLC $28,292 2,015 $ Principal Global Investors $24,206 3,039 $ Northwestern Mutual $23, $ New York Life Investments $21, $ Red Mortgage Capital, LLC $16,211 1,787 $ C-III Asset Management, LLC $15,812 2,184 $ Manulife Financial / John Hancock $15,244 1,295 $ HSBC Bank USA, N.A. $14,065 1,195 $ Centerline Capital Group $12,225 1,982 $ Greystone $11,830 2,943 $ M&T Realty Capital Corporation $11,148 1,075 $ Q10 Capital LLC $10,601 3,851 $ Situs $10,481 1,060 $ Pacific Life Insurance Company $9, $ AEGON USA Realty Advisors, LLC $9,000 1,287 $ Nationwide Life Insurance Company $8,975 1,228 $ ING Investment Management, LLC $8,740 1,252 $ Oak Grove Capital $8,447 1,263 $ StanCorp Mortgage Investors, LLC $8,128 6,338 $ Thrivent Financial for Lutherans $7,353 3,139 $ Beech Street Capital, LLC. $7, $ Lincoln National Corporation $7,049 1,249 $ Newmark Realty Capital, Inc. - SAM Member $6, $ Genworth $6,247 1,699 $ Cohen Financial $6,063 1,898 $ NCB, FSB $5,921 4,327 $ Bellwether Enterprise Real Estate Capital LLC $5,470 1,299 $ Essex Financial Services LLC $5,149 1,010 $ Pillar Multifamily, LLC $4, $ Aviva Investors North America Inc $4, $ AmeriSphere Multifamily Finance, LLC $4, $9.9 86

87 Year-End Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Servicing Volumes as of December 31, 2012 Total US Collateral Total Primary & Master Servicing TOTAL LOANS Rank Company Amount ($ millions) Number of loans Avg. Loan Size ($m) 45 Heartland Bank $4, $ Pacific Southwest Realty Services - SAM Member $4, $ Alliant Capital, LLC $3,888 1,019 $ BNY Mellon $3, $ Oppenheimer Multifamily Housing & Healthcare Finance Inc. $3, $ ColumbiaNational Real Estate Finance, LLC $3, $ Guardian Life Insurance Company of America $3, $ Jones Lang LaSalle Operations, LLC $3, $ Lancaster Pollard Mortgage Company $2, $ P/R Mortgage & Investment Corp. $2, $ RiverSource Life Insurance Company $2, $ Barry S. Slatt Mortgage Company $2,403 1,021 $ Capital Funding, LLC $2, $ Ocwen Loan Servicing, LLC - Commercial Special Servicing $2,073 4,508 $ Dougherty Mortgage LLC $1, $ Mortgage Capital $1, $ OneAmerica Financial Partners $1, $ Sunrise Mortgage & Investment Company $1, $ Bernard Financial Servicing Group - SAM Member $1, $ Norris Beggs & Simpson Financial Services - SAM Member $1, $ Medalist Capital, Inc. $1, $ Dougherty Funding $1, $ Colliers International New England, LLC - SAM Member $1, $ Gershman Mortgage $1, $ George Elkins Mortgage Banking Company $1, $ Westcap Corp $1, $ MEMBERS Capital Advisors $1, $ Goedecke & Co., LLC $1, $ HomeStreet Capital $1, $ Capital Advisors, Inc. $1, $ Morris, Smith and Feyh, Incorporated $ $ Thomas D Wood and Company - SAM Member $ $ Keystone Mortgage Corporation $ $ Waterstone Asset Management $ $ Glacier Real Estate Finance, Inc. $ $ Colliers International - Atlanta - SAM Member $ $ Protective Life Corp $ $ RockBridge Capital LLC $ $ Venture Mortgage Corporation - SAM Member $ $ Pace Financial Group $ $ American Real Estate Capital, LLC $ $ CBRE HMF, Inc. $ $ Great-West Financial $ $ Dickinson, Logan, Todd & Barber, Inc. - SAM Member $ $3.6 87

88 Year-End Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Servicing Volumes as of December 31, 2012 Total US Collateral Total Primary & Master Servicing TOTAL LOANS Rank Company Amount ($ millions) Number of loans Avg. Loan Size ($m) 89 Johnson Capital Group, Inc. $ $ Bethpage Federal Credit Union $ $ Terrix Financial Corporation $ $ Rockhall Funding Corp. $ $ Capital Crossing Servicing Company, LLC $ $ Western Capital Realty Advisors - SAM Member $ $ Summit Investment Partners $ $ Bonneville Multifamily Capital $ $ Innovative Capital Advisors, LLC $ $ Eustis Commercial Mortgage Corporation - SAM Member $ $ First Housing Development Corporation of Florida $ $ Ziegler Financing Corporation $ $ Directed Capital $ $ RoundPoint Mortgage Servicing Corporation $145 1,177 $ Boston Mutual Life Insurance Company $ $ One Nevada Credit Union $76 74 $ Allstate Investments $17 5 $3.4 88

89 Year-End Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Servicing Volumes as of December 31, 2012 Total US Collateral Total Primary & Master Servicing CMBS, CDO or other ABS Loans Rank Company Amount ($ millions) Number of loans Avg. Loan Size ($m) 1 Wells Fargo $349,455 24,887 $ PNC Real Estate / Midland Loan Services $122,692 10,677 $ Berkadia Commercial Mortgage LLC $86,782 10,440 $8.3 4 Bank of America Merrill Lynch $77,215 4,373 $ KeyBank Real Estate Capital $63,409 6,945 $9.1 6 GEMSA Loan Services, L.P. $17,822 2,910 $6.1 7 HFF, LP $11, $ Principal Global Investors $10,346 1,206 $8.6 9 Prudential Asset Resources $10, $ NorthMarq Capital, LLC $8, $ Grandbridge Real Estate Capital LLC $6, $ BNY Mellon $3, $ Berkeley Point Capital LLC $2, $ Ocwen Loan Servicing, LLC - Commercial Special Servicing $2,058 4,448 $ C-III Asset Management, LLC $2, $ NCB, FSB $2, $ Nationwide Life Insurance Company $1, $ Situs $1, $ Pacific Life Insurance Company $1, $ Jones Lang LaSalle Operations, LLC $1, $ Newmark Realty Capital, Inc. - SAM Member $1, $ Bernard Financial Servicing Group - SAM Member $1, $ Beech Street Capital, LLC. $ $ Waterstone Asset Management $ $ Pacific Southwest Realty Services - SAM Member $ $ Cohen Financial $ $ ColumbiaNational Real Estate Finance, LLC $ $ Protective Life Corp $ $ Q10 Capital LLC $ $ M&T Realty Capital Corporation $ $ Manulife Financial / John Hancock $ $ HSBC Bank USA, N.A. $ $ Walker & Dunlop, LLC $ $ Summit Investment Partners $ $ Pace Financial Group $ $ Goedecke & Co., LLC $ $ George Elkins Mortgage Banking Company $ $ Bellwether Enterprise Real Estate Capital LLC $ $ Capital Crossing Servicing Company, LLC $ $ Venture Mortgage Corporation - SAM Member $85 18 $ Western Capital Realty Advisors - SAM Member $78 13 $ Glacier Real Estate Finance, Inc. $57 12 $ Morris, Smith and Feyh, Incorporated $44 9 $ Barry S. Slatt Mortgage Company $42 9 $4.7 89

90 Year-End Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Servicing Volumes as of December 31, 2012 Total US Collateral Total Primary & Master Servicing CMBS, CDO or other ABS Loans Rank Company Amount ($ millions) Number of loans Avg. Loan Size ($m) 45 Norris Beggs & Simpson Financial Services - SAM Member $20 2 $ Eustis Commercial Mortgage Corporation - SAM Member $14 2 $ Colliers International New England, LLC - SAM Member $7 2 $3.5 90

91 Year-End Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Servicing Volumes as of December 31, 2012 Total US Collateral Total Primary & Master Servicing Commercial Bank/Savings Institution Loans Rank Company Amount ($ millions) Number of loans Avg. Loan Size ($m) 1 PNC Real Estate / Midland Loan Services $29,292 4,773 $6.1 2 Trimont Real Estate Advisors $19, $ KeyBank Real Estate Capital $14,187 2,453 $5.8 4 HSBC Bank USA, N.A. $10, $ Bank of America Merrill Lynch $2,230 2,539 $0.9 6 Dougherty Funding $1, $ Berkadia Commercial Mortgage LLC $1, $ NCB, FSB $644 2,069 $0.3 9 HFF, LP $ $ Principal Global Investors $ $ Grandbridge Real Estate Capital LLC $ $ HomeStreet Capital $ $ P/R Mortgage & Investment Corp. $ $ RockBridge Capital LLC $99 7 $ Berkeley Point Capital LLC $48 7 $ Q10 Capital LLC $33 1 $ RoundPoint Mortgage Servicing Corporation $ $ Ocwen Loan Servicing, LLC - Commercial Special Servicing $15 60 $ Capital Funding, LLC $5 2 $ Keystone Mortgage Corporation $3 4 $ Centerline Capital Group $2 7 $ George Elkins Mortgage Banking Company $1 1 $1.3 91

92 Year-End Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Servicing Volumes as of December 31, 2012 Total US Collateral Total Primary & Master Servicing Credit Company, Pension Funds, REITs, Investment Funds Loans Rank Company Amount ($ millions) Number of loans Avg. Loan Size ($m) 1 GEMSA Loan Services, L.P. $27,526 2,671 $ Bank of America Merrill Lynch $24, $ PNC Real Estate / Midland Loan Services $18,840 7,652 $2.5 4 Situs $7, $ Trimont Real Estate Advisors $7, $9.0 6 Cohen Financial $2,580 1,019 $2.5 7 C-III Asset Management, LLC $2, $ NorthMarq Capital, LLC $1, $9.7 9 Prudential Asset Resources $ $ Wells Fargo $ $ Principal Global Investors $ $ New York Life Investments $319 6 $ Capital Crossing Servicing Company, LLC $ $ Directed Capital $ $ HFF, LP $ $ Keystone Mortgage Corporation $85 9 $ Q10 Capital LLC $63 37 $1.7 92

93 Year-End Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Servicing Volumes as of December 31, 2012 Total US Collateral Total Primary & Master Servicing Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac Loans Rank Company Amount ($ millions) Number of loans Avg. Loan Size ($m) 1 PNC Real Estate / Midland Loan Services $62,801 6,057 $ Wells Fargo $44,116 6,564 $6.7 3 Walker & Dunlop, LLC $27,968 3,900 $7.2 4 Berkeley Point Capital LLC $24,690 1,772 $ Berkadia Commercial Mortgage LLC $23,171 2,167 $ GEMSA Loan Services, L.P. $17,449 1,096 $ KeyBank Real Estate Capital $17,120 1,147 $ Prudential Asset Resources $14, $ Centerline Capital Group $11,699 1,905 $ NorthMarq Capital, LLC $11,666 1,430 $ C-III Asset Management, LLC $11,046 1,862 $ Red Mortgage Capital, LLC $10, $ M&T Realty Capital Corporation $9, $ Grandbridge Real Estate Capital LLC $8, $ Greystone $7,878 2,512 $ Oak Grove Capital $6,825 1,043 $ Beech Street Capital, LLC. $6, $ HFF, LP $3, $ Alliant Capital, LLC $3,888 1,019 $ AmeriSphere Multifamily Finance, LLC $3, $ NCB, FSB $3,180 1,321 $ HSBC Bank USA, N.A. $3, $ Jones Lang LaSalle Operations, LLC $2, $ Pillar Multifamily, LLC $1, $ Bellwether Enterprise Real Estate Capital LLC $1, $ HomeStreet Capital $ $ Bank of America Merrill Lynch $ $ Dougherty Mortgage LLC $ $ ColumbiaNational Real Estate Finance, LLC $ $ Cohen Financial $ $ Q10 Capital LLC $ $ George Elkins Mortgage Banking Company $64 3 $ Lancaster Pollard Mortgage Company $54 13 $ Bernard Financial Servicing Group - SAM Member $54 4 $ Principal Global Investors $38 36 $ Eustis Commercial Mortgage Corporation - SAM Member $30 7 $ P/R Mortgage & Investment Corp. $14 10 $ Lincoln National Corporation $6 5 $ RoundPoint Mortgage Servicing Corporation $3 33 $ Manulife Financial / John Hancock $1 1 $1.0 93

94 Year-End Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Servicing Volumes as of December 31, 2012 Total US Collateral Total Primary & Master Servicing FHA & Ginnie Mae Loans Rank Company Amount ($ millions) Number of loans Avg. Loan Size ($m) 1 PNC Real Estate / Midland Loan Services $13,744 2,190 $6.3 2 Prudential Asset Resources $9, $ Berkadia Commercial Mortgage LLC $7,703 2,091 $3.7 4 Wells Fargo $6,718 1,091 $6.2 5 Red Mortgage Capital, LLC $5, $6.8 6 Walker & Dunlop, LLC $4, $8.1 7 Heartland Bank $4, $5.9 8 Oppenheimer Multifamily Housing & Healthcare Finance Inc. $3, $8.5 9 Greystone $3, $ Lancaster Pollard Mortgage Company $2, $ P/R Mortgage & Investment Corp. $2, $ Capital Funding, LLC $2, $ KeyBank Real Estate Capital $1, $ Oak Grove Capital $1, $ Dougherty Mortgage LLC $1, $ Berkeley Point Capital LLC $1, $ Gershman Mortgage $1, $ M&T Realty Capital Corporation $1, $ Bellwether Enterprise Real Estate Capital LLC $ $ Grandbridge Real Estate Capital LLC $ $ Pillar Multifamily, LLC $ $ CBRE HMF, Inc. $ $ AmeriSphere Multifamily Finance, LLC $ $ NorthMarq Capital, LLC $ $ Johnson Capital Group, Inc. $ $ Rockhall Funding Corp. $ $ Bonneville Multifamily Capital $ $ ColumbiaNational Real Estate Finance, LLC $ $ First Housing Development Corporation of Florida $ $ Ziegler Financing Corporation $ $ Beech Street Capital, LLC. $ $ Centerline Capital Group $98 21 $ Bank of America Merrill Lynch $8 4 $ NCB, FSB $6 2 $ Q10 Capital LLC $4 2 $2.0 94

95 Year-End Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Servicing Volumes as of December 31, 2012 Total US Collateral Total Primary & Master Servicing Life Insurance Companies Loans Rank Company Amount ($ millions) Number of loans Avg. Loan Size ($m) 1 PNC Real Estate / Midland Loan Services $35,097 1,304 $ MetLife $34, $ Prudential Asset Resources $34,466 2,522 $ GEMSA Loan Services, L.P. $32,682 2,088 $ Northwestern Mutual $23, $ New York Life Investments $21, $ NorthMarq Capital, LLC $19,084 3,237 $5.9 8 HFF, LP $15,178 1,287 $ Manulife Financial / John Hancock $14,877 1,244 $ Grandbridge Real Estate Capital LLC $13,322 3,318 $ Principal Global Investors $12,864 1,679 $ Q10 Capital LLC $9,593 3,591 $ AEGON USA Realty Advisors, LLC $8,930 1,278 $ ING Investment Management, LLC $8,740 1,252 $ StanCorp Mortgage Investors, LLC $8,128 6,338 $ Pacific Life Insurance Company $7, $ Thrivent Financial for Lutherans $7,353 3,139 $ Nationwide Life Insurance Company $7,106 1,019 $ Lincoln National Corporation $7,042 1,244 $ Genworth $6,247 1,699 $ Bank of America Merrill Lynch $6,147 1,606 $ Newmark Realty Capital, Inc. - SAM Member $5, $ Essex Financial Services LLC $5,149 1,010 $ Aviva Investors North America Inc $4, $ Berkadia Commercial Mortgage LLC $4,480 1,158 $ Guardian Life Insurance Company of America $3, $ Pacific Southwest Realty Services - SAM Member $3, $ Bellwether Enterprise Real Estate Capital LLC $2, $ Pillar Multifamily, LLC $2, $ RiverSource Life Insurance Company $2, $ Cohen Financial $2, $ Barry S. Slatt Mortgage Company $2,343 1,002 $ Walker & Dunlop, LLC $2, $ Mortgage Capital $1, $ OneAmerica Financial Partners $1, $ Sunrise Mortgage & Investment Company $1, $ Norris Beggs & Simpson Financial Services - SAM Member $1, $ Medalist Capital, Inc. $1, $ ColumbiaNational Real Estate Finance, LLC $1, $ Trimont Real Estate Advisors $1, $ Colliers International New England, LLC - SAM Member $1, $ Westcap Corp $1, $ MEMBERS Capital Advisors $1, $ Capital Advisors, Inc. $1, $3.4 95

96 Year-End Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Servicing Volumes as of December 31, 2012 Total US Collateral Total Primary & Master Servicing Life Insurance Companies Loans Rank Company Amount ($ millions) Number of loans Avg. Loan Size ($m) 45 Situs $1, $ Thomas D Wood and Company - SAM Member $ $ George Elkins Mortgage Banking Company $ $ Morris, Smith and Feyh, Incorporated $ $ Goedecke & Co., LLC $ $ Keystone Mortgage Corporation $ $ Glacier Real Estate Finance, Inc. $ $ KeyBank Real Estate Capital $ $ RockBridge Capital LLC $ $ Colliers International - Atlanta - SAM Member $ $ American Real Estate Capital, LLC $ $ Great-West Financial $ $ Venture Mortgage Corporation - SAM Member $ $ Bernard Financial Servicing Group - SAM Member $ $ Dickinson, Logan, Todd & Barber, Inc. - SAM Member $ $ Terrix Financial Corporation $ $ Pace Financial Group $ $ Innovative Capital Advisors, LLC $ $ Western Capital Realty Advisors - SAM Member $ $ Eustis Commercial Mortgage Corporation - SAM Member $ $ Boston Mutual Life Insurance Company $ $ Wells Fargo $50 5 $ Jones Lang LaSalle Operations, LLC $44 1 $ HomeStreet Capital $42 13 $ Allstate Investments $17 5 $ NCB, FSB $1 1 $1.0 96

97 Year-End Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Servicing Volumes as of December 31, 2012 Total US Collateral Total Primary & Master Servicing Loans Held in Warehouse (not elsewhere classified) Rank Company Amount ($ millions) Number of loans Avg. Loan Size ($m) 1 Wells Fargo $25,569 1,257 $ PNC Real Estate / Midland Loan Services $14,710 2,450 $6.0 3 KeyBank Real Estate Capital $4, $ Bank of America Merrill Lynch $1, $ Berkadia Commercial Mortgage LLC $ $ C-III Asset Management, LLC $ $8.7 7 Centerline Capital Group $ $8.7 8 Prudential Asset Resources $ $6.3 9 GEMSA Loan Services, L.P. $ $ Oak Grove Capital $ $ Pacific Life Insurance Company $ $ RoundPoint Mortgage Servicing Corporation $ $ Bernard Financial Servicing Group - SAM Member $84 6 $ NCB, FSB $64 22 $ P/R Mortgage & Investment Corp. $51 8 $ RockBridge Capital LLC $42 4 $ Barry S. Slatt Mortgage Company $18 9 $ Principal Global Investors $16 2 $7.9 97

98 Year-End Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Servicing Volumes as of December 31, 2012 Total US Collateral Total Primary & Master Servicing Other Loans Rank Company Amount ($ millions) Number of loans Avg. Loan Size ($m) 1 Berkadia Commercial Mortgage LLC $72,949 12,034 $6.1 2 PNC Real Estate / Midland Loan Services $40,409 1,745 $ Wells Fargo $2,321 1,388 $1.7 4 Grandbridge Real Estate Capital LLC $1, $3.7 5 Greystone $ $5.6 6 ColumbiaNational Real Estate Finance, LLC $ $6.8 7 Bellwether Enterprise Real Estate Capital LLC $ $4.5 8 Bethpage Federal Credit Union $ $2.0 9 M&T Realty Capital Corporation $ $ Colliers International - Atlanta - SAM Member $ $ Walker & Dunlop, LLC $ $ Red Mortgage Capital, LLC $ $ Lancaster Pollard Mortgage Company $ $ Capital Funding, LLC $76 13 $ One Nevada Credit Union $76 74 $ AEGON USA Realty Advisors, LLC $70 9 $ New York Life Investments $62 2 $ Q10 Capital LLC $ $ Pacific Life Insurance Company $34 16 $ P/R Mortgage & Investment Corp. $25 36 $ First Housing Development Corporation of Florida $14 10 $1.4 98

99 Year-End Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Servicing Volumes as of December 31, 2012 Total US Collateral Total Named Special Servicing CMBS, CDO or other ABS Loans Rank Company Amount ($ millions) Number of loans Avg. Loan Size ($m) 1 LNR Partners, Inc (U.S.) $142,318 11,121 $ CWCapital Asset Management LLC $142,110 10,613 $ C-III Asset Management, LLC $129,397 12,480 $ PNC Real Estate / Midland Loan Services $83,989 5,809 $ Wells Fargo $40,232 1,492 $ Situs $22,993 1,743 $ KeyBank Real Estate Capital $22,383 2,488 $9.0 8 Berkadia Commercial Mortgage LLC $8,991 3,090 $2.9 9 ORIX Capital Markets, LLC $7,708 1,039 $ NorthStar $4, $ BNY Mellon $3, $ Ocwen Loan Servicing, LLC - Commercial Special Servicing $2,302 4,462 $ Pacific Life Insurance Company $1, $ NCB, FSB $1, $ Prudential Asset Resources $1, $ Berkeley Point Capital LLC $1, $ AEGON USA Realty Advisors, LLC $914 3 $ Protective Life Corp $ $ Trimont Real Estate Advisors $ $ Principal Global Investors $76 30 $ Capital Crossing Servicing Company, LLC $ $ Barry S. Slatt Mortgage Company $33 9 $ Waterstone Asset Management $23 8 $2.9 99

100 Year-End Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Servicing Volumes as of December 31, 2012 Total US Collateral Total Named Special Servicing TOTAL LOANS Rank Company Amount ($ millions) Number of loans Avg. Loan Size ($m) 1 CWCapital Asset Management LLC $145,538 12,629 $ LNR Partners, Inc (U.S.) $142,318 11,121 $ C-III Asset Management, LLC $136,137 13,732 $9.9 4 PNC Real Estate / Midland Loan Services $102,469 6,549 $ Prudential Asset Resources $60,131 4,537 $ Wells Fargo $41,193 2,858 $ MetLife $34, $ Situs $24,645 2,202 $ Northwestern Mutual $23, $ KeyBank Real Estate Capital $22,383 2,488 $ New York Life Investments $21, $ Principal Global Investors $14,215 1,841 $ Pacific Life Insurance Company $9, $ Berkadia Commercial Mortgage LLC $9,022 3,093 $ ING Investment Management, LLC $8,740 1,252 $ StanCorp Mortgage Investors, LLC $8,128 6,338 $ ORIX Capital Markets, LLC $7,801 1,060 $ Lincoln National Corporation $7,049 1,249 $ NCB, FSB $5,607 4,216 $ Pillar Multifamily, LLC $4, $ NorthStar $4, $ Guardian Life Insurance Company of America $3, $ BNY Mellon $3, $ RiverSource Life Insurance Company $2, $ Ocwen Loan Servicing, LLC - Commercial Special Servicing $2,317 4,522 $ Trimont Real Estate Advisors $1, $ Summit Investment Partners $1, $ AEGON USA Realty Advisors, LLC $1, $ Berkeley Point Capital LLC $1, $ Protective Life Corp $ $ Capital Crossing Servicing Company, LLC $ $ Great-West Financial $ $ Bethpage Federal Credit Union $ $ Directed Capital $ $ Boston Mutual Life Insurance Company $ $ Barry S. Slatt Mortgage Company $33 9 $ Waterstone Asset Management $23 8 $ Allstate Investments $17 5 $

101 Year-End Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Servicing Volumes as of December 31, 2012 C/MF Loans Secured by Collateral OUTSIDE the US Total Primary & Master Servicing TOTAL LOANS Rank Company Amount ($ millions) Number of loans Avg. Loan Size ($m) 1 Situs $31, $ Hatfield Phillips International, an LNR Property Company $18, $ GEMSA Loan Services, L.P. $9, $ PNC Real Estate / Midland Loan Services $8,505 1,097 $7.8 5 Manulife Financial / John Hancock $8,003 1,533 $5.2 6 MetLife $5, $ Capital Services Group $2,386 3,403 $0.7 8 Trimont Real Estate Advisors $1, $ Prudential Asset Resources $ $ LNR Partners Germany, an LNR Property Company $ $ Pacific Life Insurance Company $ $ Bank of America Merrill Lynch $109 3 $

102 6. Recent Commercial/Multifamily Research Releases from MBA The following reports can be found at If you have trouble locating these or other MBA reports, 3/21/2013 MBA Releases 2012 Rankings of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Firms Origination Volumes Wells Fargo was the top commercial/multifamily mortgage originator in 2012, according to a set of commercial/multifamily real estate finance league tables prepared by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). Other top originators include Bank of America Merrill Lynch; HFF, L.P.; PNC Real Estate; Meridian Capital Group, LLC; CBRE Capital Markets, Inc.; Prudential Mortgage Capital Company; KeyBank Real Estate Capital; Jones Lang LaSalle; Walker & Dunlop; Northmarq Capital LLC and Berkadia. 3/11/2013 Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Debt Increases by Largest Amount Since 2008 The level of commercial/multifamily mortgage debt outstanding increased by $21.8 billion, or 0.9 percent, in the fourth quarter of 2012, as all four major investor groups increased their holdings, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). On a year-over-year basis, the amount of mortgage debt outstanding at the end of 2012 was $29.7 billion higher than at the end of 2011, an increase of 1.2 percent. 3/5/2013 Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Delinquency Rates Continued Down in Fourth Quarter Delinquency rates continued to decline for commercial and multifamily mortgage loans in the fourth quarter of 2012, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association s (MBA) Commercial/Multifamily Delinquency Report. 3/5/2013 MBA DataNote: Commercial and Multifamily Mortgages Banks Best Performing Loans and Leases through Credit Crunch and Recession An analysis of data from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) shows that commercial and multifamily mortgages fared better through the credit crunch and recession than any other major type of loan held by banks and thrifts, according to a DataNote released today by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). 102

103 2/4/ Percent Drop In Volume of Commercial and Multifamily Mortgages Maturing This Year $119.5 billion, eight percent of the outstanding balance, of commercial and multifamily mortgages held by non-bank lenders and investors will mature in 2013, a 21 percent decline from the $150.6 billion that matured in 2012, according to today s release of the Mortgage Bankers Association s (MBA) 2012 Commercial Real Estate/Multifamily Survey of Loan Maturity Volumes. 2/4/2013 Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Originations Up 49 Percent in Q4, Up 24 Percent for Year Commercial and multifamily mortgage originations increased 49 percent between the third and the fourth quarters of 2012, and were also up 49 percent compared to the fourth quarter of 2011, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association s (MBA) Quarterly Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations. 2/4/2013 MBA Releases 2012 Year-End Commercial/Multifamily Servicer Rankings The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its year-end ranking of commercial and multifamily mortgage servicers as of the end of December 31, At the top of the list of firms is Wells Fargo with $429.1 billion in U.S. master and primary servicing, followed by PNC Real Estate/Midland Loan Services with $337.6 billion, Berkadia Commercial Mortgage LLC with $197.3 billion, Bank of America Merrill Lynch with $112.5 billion, and KeyBank Real Estate Capital with $101.2 billion. 12/11/2012 Commercial and Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding Increases for Fourth Straight Quarter The level of commercial/multifamily mortgage debt outstanding increased by $6.6 billion, or 0.3 percent, in the third quarter of 2012, as three of the four major investor groups increased their holdings, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). 12/6/2012 Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Delinquency Rates Down in Third Quarter Delinquency rates decreased for commercial and multifamily mortgage loans in the third quarter, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association s (MBA) Commercial/Multifamily Delinquency Report. 11/13/2012 Third Quarter Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Originations Down 7 Percent from Q Commercial and multifamily mortgage origination volumes during the third quarter of 2012 were seven percent lower than during the third quarter 2011, 17 percent lower than during the second quarter of 2012 and up 15 percent year-to-date from last year s year-to-date levels, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association s (MBA) Quarterly Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations. 103

104 10/4/2012 MBA Analysis Pegs 2011 Multifamily Lending at $110 billion, Up 60% From 2010 In 2011, 2,653 different multifamily lenders provided a total of $110.1 billion in new mortgages for apartment buildings with five or more units, according to a report from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). The 2011 dollar volume represents a 60 percent increase from 2010 levels. Seventy-two percent of the active lenders made five or fewer multifamily loans over the course of the year. 9/24/2012 Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding Declines Fueled by Drop in CMBS Loans The level of commercial/multifamily mortgage debt outstanding decreased by $10.4 billion, or 0.4 percent, in the second quarter of 2012, as the balance of loans in CMBS, CDO and other ABS issues continued to decline, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). 8/30/2012 Commercial and Multifamily Mortgage Delinquency Rates Continue to Drop for Banks, Rise for CMBS in Second Quarter of 2012 Commercial and multifamily mortgage delinquency rates continued to drop for banks and rise for commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS) during the second quarter of Delinquency rates also declined for Fannie Mae during the second quarter, and increased by 0.01 percentage points for life companies and 0.04 percentage points for Freddie Mac according to the Mortgage Bankers Association s (MBA) Commercial/Multifamily Delinquency Report. 8/23/2012 MBA Releases 2012 Mid-year Commercial/Multifamily Servicer Rankings The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its mid-year ranking of commercial and multifamily mortgage servicers as of June 30, At the top of the list of firms is Wells Fargo with $430.5 billion in U.S. master and primary servicing, followed by PNC Real Estate/Midland Loan Services with $357.0 billion, Berkadia Commercial Mortgage LLC with $206.6 billion, Bank of America Merrill Lynch with $110.1 billion, and KeyBank Real Estate Capital with $100.1 billion. 7/31/2012 Second Quarter Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Originations Up 25 Percent from Q Commercial/multifamily mortgage origination volumes during the second quarter of 2012 were up 25 percent from second quarter 2011 levels, and up 39 percent from the first quarter of 2012, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association s (MBA) Quarterly Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations. 104

105 6/12/2012 Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Balances Up $8.1 Billion in First Quarter The level of commercial/multifamily mortgage debt outstanding increased by $8.1 billion, or 0.3 percent, in the first quarter of 2012, as three of the four major investor groups increased their holdings, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). 6/5/2012 Commercial and Multifamily Mortgage Delinquency Rates Drop for Banks, Rise for CMBS in First Quarter of 2012 Commercial and multifamily mortgage delinquency rates dropped for banks and rose for commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS) during the first quarter of Delinquency rates also declined for life insurance companies and Fannie Mae during the first quarter, and increased by 0.01 percentage points for Freddie Mac, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association s (MBA) Commercial/Multifamily Delinquency Report. 5/16/2012 Q Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Originations Up 36 Percent from Q First quarter 2012 commercial and multifamily mortgage loan originations were 36 percent higher than during the same period last year and 12 percent lower than the fourth quarter of 2011, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association s (MBA) Quarterly Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations. The decrease from fourth quarter 2011 reflects the industry s usual push to finalize deals before the end of the year, and subsequent drop-offs in first quarter numbers. 4/11/2012 Mortgage Bankers Commercial/Multifamily Originations up 55 Percent to $184.3 Billion in 2011 Commercial and multifamily mortgage origination volumes increased 55 percent in 2011, with mortgage bankers reporting $184.3 billion of closed commercial and multifamily loans, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association s (MBA) 2011 Commercial Real Estate/Multifamily Finance: Annual Origination Volume Summation. 4/4/2012 Wells Fargo Top Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Originator in 2011 Wells Fargo was the top commercial/multifamily mortgage originator in 2011, according to a set of listings released today by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). Other originators in the top 10 include HFF, L.P.; Meridian Capital Group, LLC.; CBRE Capital Markets, Inc.; PNC Real Estate; MetLife Real Estate Investments; Deutsche Bank Commercial Real Estate; Prudential Mortgage Capital Company; Northmarq Capital LLC; and JP Morgan (CMBS). 105

106 3/14/2012 Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding Flat in 4th Quarter; Down 0.6 percent in 2011 The level of commercial/multifamily mortgage debt outstanding was essentially unchanged in the fourth quarter of 2011, as three of the four major investor groups increased their holdings, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). On a year-over-year basis, the amount of mortgage debt outstanding at the end of 2011 was $14 billion lower than at the end of 2010, a decline of 0.6 percent. 3/7/2012 Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Delinquencies Down; Best Performing Bank Loans During Recession Commercial and multifamily mortgage delinquency rates declined during the fourth quarter of 2011, and an analysis of data from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) shows that commercial and multifamily mortgages have fared better through the credit crunch and recession than any other major type of loan held by banks and thrifts, according to two reports released today by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). 2/6/2012 MBA Forecasts $230 Billion of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Originations in 2012; $2.4 Trillion of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding In its inaugural forecast of the commercial/multifamily real estate finance markets, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) projects originations of commercial and multifamily mortgages will hit $230 billion in 2012, an increase of 17 percent from 2011 volumes, and continue to rise to $290 billion in Commercial/multifamily mortgage debt outstanding is expected to also grow in 2012, ending the year above $2.4 trillion, two percent higher than at the end of By the end of 2015, mortgage debt outstanding is forecast to exceed $2.5 trillion. MBA previewed its forecast of the commercial/multifamily markets today at its Commercial Real Estate/Multifamily Housing Convention in Atlanta. 2/6/2012 MBA: Ten Percent of Non-Bank Commercial/Multifamily Debt Will Mature in 2012, Down From 2011 Ten percent, or $150.6 billion, of commercial and multifamily mortgages held by nonbank lenders and investors will mature in 2012, a 3 percent decline from the $154.7 billion that matured in 2011, and an 18 percent decline from 2010 according to today s release of the Mortgage Bankers Association s (MBA) 2011 Commercial Real Estate/Multifamily Survey of Loan Maturity Volumes. 106

107 2/5/2012 Wells Fargo, PNC/Midland and Berkadia Lead National Rankings of Commercial/Multifamily Servicing Volumes The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its year-end ranking of commercial and multifamily mortgage servicers as of December 31, At the top of the list of firms is Wells Fargo with $437.7 billion in U.S. master and primary servicing, followed by PNC Real Estate/Midland Loan Services with $355.1 billion, Berkadia Commercial Mortgage LLC with $176.5 billion, Bank of America Merrill Lynch with $115.0 billion, and KeyBank Real Estate Capital with $108.2 billion. 107

108 About the Commercial Real Estate / Multifamily Finance DataBook The Commercial Real Estate / Multifamily Finance DataBook is produced quarterly by the Research and Economics staff of the Mortgage Bankers Association and can be found at org/research. For more information, contact Jamie Woodwell, MBA s Vice President of Commercial / Multifamily Research, at (202) or [email protected]. About the Mortgage Bankers Association The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) is the national association representing the real estate finance industry, an industry that employs more than 280,000 people in virtually every community in the country. Headquartered in Washington, D.C., the association works to ensure the continued strength of the nation s residential and commercial real estate markets; to expand homeownership and extend access to affordable housing to all Americans. MBA promotes fair and ethical lending practices and fosters professional excellence among real estate finance employees through a wide range of educational programs and a variety of publications. Its membership of over 2,200 companies includes all elements of real estate finance: mortgage companies, mortgage brokers, commercial banks, thrifts, Wall Street conduits, life insurance companies and others in the mortgage lending field. For additional information, visit MBA s web site: