10 Project Costs and Schedule

Transcription

1 II Project Costs and Schedule 10.1 Overview The investment costs given in this chapter include all components necessary for the baseline design of TESLA, as described in chapters 3 to 9. Not included are the costs for the High Energy Physics detector (part IV) and the X-ray FEL experimental stations (undulators, photon beam lines, etc., see part V). All numbers are quoted at year 2000 prices. It is assumed that the manpower required for the various stages of the project (i.e. preparation, procurement, testing, assembly and commissioning) will be supplied by the existing manpower in the collaborating institutes: however some of this manpower may have to be hired. For this reason the manpower is quoted separately, and is not included in the total cost. To allow a comparison with other e + e linear collider projects, the costs for the linear collider and X-FEL have been separated as follows: the costs for the linear collider part of the TESLA project amount to 3136 million EUR; the costs for the additional accelerator systems and civil engineering required for the X-FEL are 241 million EUR. The total cost is divided up by the major sub-systems as shown in table (see also figures and ). To assure full competition in future bidding procedures, no further cost breakdown is given in this public report. Several collaborating institutes were responsible for evaluating parts of the cost. A planning group consisting of the persons responsible for each of the major subsystems, together with experienced senior scientists from the collaboration, has been continuously reviewing the technical layout of the system and the cost evaluations. In the following section we will describe the various procedures used for the cost evaluation of the major components Cost Estimate Basis The cost estimates for all major components (see below) have been obtained from studies made by industry, and are based on a single manufacturer supplying the total number of a given component. A production schedule of three years peak production

2 II Project Costs and Schedule Sub-system cost [M-EUR] components included Main linac modules 1131 cavity string, cryostats, input couplers, HOM couplers, tuning systems, quadrupoles and steering magnets, instrumentation Main linac RF system 587 RF power supplies, modulators, HV pulse cables, transformers, klystrons, waveguide system, low level RF controls, interlocks, cables Injection systems 97 RF gun system, accelerator modules and RF system for 5 GeV linac for electrons and positrons, positron source, conventional preaccelerator, beam transfer lines, bunch compressors, diagnostics Damping rings 215 magnets, permanent magnet wigglers, vacuum systems, RF systems, power supplies, beam instrumentation, injection and ejection systems Collider beam delivery systems 101 beam transport lines, magnets, s.c. final doublet, beam collimation, beam extraction and dump systems, vacuum systems, power supplies, feedback systems, diagnostics Civil engineering km tunnel, surface buildings, connecting shafts, hall for experimental detector, damping ring tunnels, beam dump halls, civil construction for injectors Infrastructure 336 tunnel infrastructure, cable trays, power distribution, main power connection, cryoplants and cryogenic distribution system, cooling and ventilation systems, safety systems, module and RF test facility Auxiliary systems 124 control systems, vacuum pump stations, cabling, interlocks, magnet supplies, miscellaneous Incremental cost for X-FEL 241 RF photoinjector and 500 MeV linac, upgrade of 50 GeV linac to 10 Hz rep. rate (RF system and cryoplants), bunch compressors, FEL and LC beams merging and separation, beam transport and delivery, civil construction for beam lines and experimental hall Table : Cost overview for the major sub-systems of the project. All numbers are given in million Euro at year 2000 prices.

3 10.2 Cost Estimate Basis II-369 Figure : Overview of the accelerator investment costs.

4 II Project Costs and Schedule Figure : Contribution of the accelerator sub-systems in percent of the total cost. plus one year for start-up for each component was specified. The four-year production cycles required for the various components are scheduled within the total construction time of 8 years (see figures and ). The schedule was considered feasible by the companies involved in the study. A core production period of three years plus one year for start-up corresponds to an average production rate of 32 m of machine per working day. The corresponding numbers for the proton storage ring of HERA were about 25 m/day; for the LHC about 40 m/day are planned Main linac modules The TESLA cryomodules for the main linac (chapter 3) with the superconducting cavities are the largest cost item with 1131 million EUR. The cost is dominated by the s.c. cavities, the cryostat and the assembly of the module. Niobium, cavity fabrication and treatment procedures each constitute a substantial part of the cavity costs. It should be mentioned that the goal set to the TESLA collaboration in 1992 by Bjørn H. Wiik of 2000 US- /MV for the complete accelerating modules (including s.c. cavities, power couplers, cryostat, s.c. quadrupoles etc.) has been achieved 1 within 8%. 1 using the current exchange rate of 0.95 US- per Euro

5 10.2 Cost Estimate Basis II Superconducting cavities The cost of cavity fabrication for TESLA has been estimated using industrial studies made by companies with expertise in niobium production, cavity fabrication, and the planning of mass production plants. Niobium production The amount of material needed for the TESLA cavities is about 500 tons of high purity (RRR 300) niobium. According to the response of a questionnaire sent to the leading four niobium sheet producers, there is no shortage of raw material or facilities for niobium sheet metal handling. However, new melting furnaces specifically for TESLA production will be required to guarantee the time schedule of 3 years. Quotes from two companies (Wah Chang, Albany, OR, USA, and Cabot Corp., Boyertown, PA, USA) indicate that the price per kg of niobium is substantially lower than the present market price for the large quantity required for TESLA. This is due to savings on sheet cuts for re-melting and streamlining of facilities for continuous production. There is an uncertainty in the price of niobium as prices are quoted in US- : the price used in the cost estimate is based on 1 US- /Euro. Cavity fabrication Within an industrial study (Babcock Noell Nuclear GmbH, Würzburg, Germany) the TTF cavity production was analyzed in terms of cost driving and critical procedures. Mass production costs were determined by offers from suitable companies. In the fabrication of TTF cavities, electron beam welding is the dominant cost driving procedure. A new fabrication facility is planned with three vacuum chamber welding installations. The facility, together with the use of multiple welding tooling, substantially reduces the welding costs. The total facility costs were determined in detail (planning, investment, effort for ramping up and closing the facility, personnel, repair and maintenance, consumption, quality insurance) and were compiled in a report Cryomodules The costs for the 2500 required cryomodules are based on the 12.2 m long TTF module, and then extrapolated to the 17 m TESLA module. Two industrial studies were made for the mass production: the costs for the vacuum vessel and cold mass were taken from an industrial study by E. Zanon SpA, Schio, Italy; the costs for the cavity preparation and cryomodule assembly were derived from an industrial study by Babcock Noell Nuclear GmbH. The manpower requirements reported from the second study have since been reduced in accordance with recent experience with assembled TTF modules. Costs for other

6 II Project Costs and Schedule components were derived from the experience gained from the procurement of similar components for TTF Main linac RF system The RF system (chapter 3.4) is the second largest cost item with 587 million EUR. The most relevant parts with respect to cost are: klystrons; modulators and pulse transformers; wave guide distribution system; interlock and controls; low level RF system; HV cables. The cost estimates are based either on industrial studies or established costing procedures. Klystron The cost estimate is based on the production of the total number of klystrons by one manufacturer. A mass production study was made by the present prototype manufacturer (Thomson Tubes Electroniques, Velizy, France). Prices for auxiliary power supplies (solenoid, filament, core bias, vacuum pump, electronics racks) were scaled from TTF costs using a standard industrial mass production costing rule, which states that a price reduction of 5 % is achieved for each factor of two in production number (95 % learning curve). The cost estimate for the racks is based on an estimate by a manufacturer. Interlocks and controls The cost estimate makes use of an established industrial costing procedure based on the number of channels to be interlocked, monitored or controlled. The procedure produces a cost based on the use of an industrial standard PLC (Programmable Logic Circuit) system. An alternative approach where all the costs for the required interlock hardware and cable connections are summed up gives a similar price. Low level RF system The cost is based on TTF experience scaled for mass production. The cost estimate for the 400 W preamplifiers is based on the production of the total number by one manufacturer (an informal quote on 750 units was received). Waveguide distribution system The cost estimate is based on experience with the existing TTF system, adjusted for mass production. Different parts of the system will be supplied from different manufacturers. Informal quotes and estimates on cost saving based on mass production exist from some manufacturers.

7 10.2 Cost Estimate Basis II-373 Modulator and Pulse transformer The cost estimate is based on the production of the total number of modulators (HV power supply, pulser, internal modulator interlock) and pulse transformers by one manufacturer. A mass production study was made by PPT Puls-Plasmatechnik GmbH, Dortmund, Germany. Cables A cost estimate of a manufacturer (Nexans Deutschland, Mönchengladbach, Germany) exists for 1000 km of HV pulse cable (connecting klystrons in the tunnel to modulators in the external halls). The in-tunnel connection cost of the RF units is estimated on the basis of TTF experience Injection systems The costs for the injection systems amount to 97 million EUR. They include all systems described in chapters 4 and chapters 6. The biggest single cost items are the accelerator modules and the RF system for the 5 GeV injector linacs; these are taken directly from the costs of the main linac. Cost estimates for the other parts are based on existing components at TTF or at conventional linacs. The injector components for the X-FEL are given in the FEL incremental cost budget Damping Rings The costs for the damping rings (chapter 5) amount to 215 million EUR. All components required for the two rings are included except for the costs of the infrastructure of the arc tunnels (which are included in the infrastructure budget), and the cryogenic supply for the superconducting cavities (which is included in the main cryoplant costs). A detailed technical study including technical drawings of every section of the vacuum and magnet system has been made by Ansaldo Ricerche, Genua, Italy. The biggest cost driving components have been handled most thoroughly. Based on this study, industrial companies have determined the costs for most of the damping ring components. The costs for sub-systems which have not been specified to this level of detail have been estimated based on similar present day installations Collider beam delivery system The costs for the beam delivery system (BDS, chapter 7) for the baseline design with one interaction point amount to 101 million EUR. Costs for diagnostics, feedback and vacuum systems are based on TTF and HERA experience. The major cost items are the magnet and the beam dump systems.

8 II Project Costs and Schedule Magnet system The preliminary cost estimate of the magnets were made on the assumption that all conventional magnets will be produced by one supplier with the appropriate experience and facilities: the cost of tooling sets will then be minimised. The current estimate has been made by the D. V. Efremov Institute, St. Petersburg, Russia, which has a long history of magnet production. For the superconducting Final Doublet, the cost estimate has been supplied by the superconducting magnet group in Saclay (CEA/Saclay DAPNIA/STCM, France), and is based on HERA and LHC quadrupole magnet experience. All power supplies in the BDS are commercially available. The cost of the cables is based on locating the supplies in the tunnel. The estimate also includes a level of redundancy, allowing one power supply to fail in the tunnel without the need to make an access for repair. Electrostatic separators The cost estimate has been supplied by the LEP ES separator group (CERN/SL/BT) at CERN, and is based on existing LEP electrostatic separator experience. Main dump system The dump vessel, fast sweeping system and shielding have been evaluated on the basis of industrial quotes or experience with similar systems at HERA. The most complicated part of the dump is the water cooling system. This has been evaluated on the basis of the experience with a similar system at the target station at SINQ (Paul Scherrer Institute, Villigen, Switzerland). Costs for the kicker magnet and pulser system have been evaluated from the experience with the HERA beam dump system Civil engineering Civil engineering (chapter 8) is a major cost item amounting to 546 million EUR. It includes all tunnels, shafts, underground and surface buildings for the linear collider. The dominant cost item is the 33 km long linac tunnel. Civil engineering cost for the X-FEL are included in the FEL budget. A certain percentage of the total construction cost has been taken into account for the services of architects and civil engineers according to HERA experience and public regulations. The costs for the land were estimated using present market prices. Main tunnel The construction cost estimate for the TESLA tunnel is taken directly from the actual costs of the HERA tunnel. The TESLA tunnel has the same diameter as the HERA

9 10.2 Cost Estimate Basis II-375 tunnel, which is constructed from concrete segments called tubbings. The soil conditions (mainly sand) are comparable at both sites. At HERA the tunneling speed was 10 m per day on average and 14 m per day maximum. The speed of the TESLA machine will be similar. One tunnel-boring machine will bore 2.5 km TESLA tunnel in one year, and four tunnel boring machines are necessary to limit the tunnel construction time to about three years. Damping ring arc tunnel The inner diameter of the arc tunnels is 3 m. The price for these tunnels is based on the construction price for a cable tunnel in the centre of Berlin, which has a similar diameter and soil conditions. Underground buildings and shafts All TESLA underground buildings are immersed in the ground water. The situation is similar to the HERA section North, which extends nearly 20 m into the water table. The price per unit volume of this HERA hall was therefore used as a basis for the cost estimate for the construction of the underground buildings and shafts required for TESLA. Surface buildings The size of the TESLA cryogenic halls are similar to the HERA cryogenic hall (72 m 33 m, with a height of about 15 m). The price per unit volume of this hall is taken as the basis for the price estimation of the construction costs for the TESLA surface buildings Infrastructure The infrastructure (chapter 8) costs amount to 336 million EUR. The major cost items are the cryogenic plants, distribution lines, and connection boxes. Additional items included are: the main power connection and distribution; water cooling and ventilation systems; safety installations; test equipment for cryomodules and RF components. Cryogenic Plants From the design heat loads for TESLA the cooling capacity requirements (4.5 K equivalent) for the 7 individual TESLA cryoplants were derived. The cost for the cryoplants was then calculated using the following formula, which was found in 1998 at CERN during the procurement of the similarly sized cryogenic plants for LHC: cost [MCHF] = 2.2 [MCHF] (cooling capacity [kw]) 0.6 The costs in Euro for the year 2000 were obtained by using the Euro/CHF exchange rate of 1.634, assuming a rate of inflation of 4% over the last 2 years. For the cost of

10 II Project Costs and Schedule most auxiliary components the experience of CERN was also used. The costs for the distribution boxes are based on the number of cold, warm and safety valves, taking into account the cost for valves of different size and type. The resulting costs are in agreement with both the experience at CERN and at DESY 1. The costs for helium transfer lines and feed- and end-boxes were estimated from recent experience with the procurement of similar components for DESY (TTF/FEL). Connection to main grid and power distribution The installed power for TESLA will be about 200 MVA and the design power consumption 155 MW. The mains connection has been evaluated by two local power companies, and the power distribution by an outside engineering consulting firm in collaboration with DESY. Water cooling and ventilation The costs for cooling and ventilation were estimated on the basis of prices for HERA and the TESLA Test Facility equipment. Test Facility for accelerator modules and RF components The basic equipment costs are given by the number of cryogenic valves and the lengths of transfer lines. Prices were taken from recent procurement of similar equipment for the cryogenic supply of the TTF/FEL-linac and of the HERA luminosity upgrade. For the supply boxes for the module test benches, the results of the call for tender for the CERN LHC magnet test benches was used. For the RF-equipment the costs from the evaluations for the linac components has been used Auxiliary systems A total cost of 124 million EUR was budgeted for the auxilliary systems, which covers (as major items) the accelerator control system and the main linac external vacuum systems. Costs for these systems have been evaluated on the basis of HERA and TTF experience. The budget also collects a number of smaller items like spare linac modules Incremental cost for the X-ray FEL The additional costs of the accelerator components required for the X-ray FEL (chapter 9) amount to 241 million EUR, the dominant part being the civil engineering of the FEL experimental hall and the beam distribution system. Costs for the FEL injector, bunch compressors, beam line magnets, vacuum systems, beam dumps, diagnostics, water cooling and ventilation systems were evaluated on the same basis as the injector 1 from recently purchased valve boxes for the HERA Luminosity Upgrade and TTF/FEL

11 10.3 Manpower Requirements II-377 and beam delivery systems for the collider. The undulator and photon beam line costs are given in part V Manpower Requirements The manpower required for the different stages of the project (design, procurement, fabrication and assembly, testing, installation and commissioning) has been estimated mainly on the basis of the experiences gained at TTF and in large projects like HERA. It is assumed that this manpower will be supplied by the collaborating institutes. A total of 6,933 man years will be required. Figure shows the time profile of the total (collaboration) manpower needed until the completion of the installation, divided up by the major sub-systems. Figure : Laboratory manpower requirement for TESLA during the 8 years of construction Time Schedule The construction time of TESLA is 8 years. The evaluation is based on industrial studies and the experience gained at the construction of HERA and TTF. Figures and show the construction schedule, indicating the major activities which are briefly explained in the following:

12 II Project Costs and Schedule Based on HERA experience an average tunneling speed of 10 m per day can be safely assumed. Thus the total civil construction will be completed after 3.5 years using 4 tunneling machines. Two years after the start of civil construction on the DESY site, the tunneling machine will have reached the shaft for the next service hall 5 km away. The tunneling base and support infrastructure will then be moved to this hall, and installation can begin in the first tunnel section. Installation of the first cryoplant, watercooling systems and other infrastructure into the service hall on the DESY site will start after 2.5 years. Orders for major components (s.c. cavities, cryostats, etc.) will be placed at the same time as the civil construction starts. According to the industrial studies, between 2 and 3.5 years will be needed to set up the production facilities. Full production rate will be reached after one additional year. The first cryomodules will be assembled and ready for tunnel installation 4 years after the start of civil construction. After 5 years the production and installation of all components proceeds at full design rate. The first 16.5 km tunnel section of the linear collider and the beam lines for the FEL will be completed after 6.5 years. The positron side of the collider will be completed after 8 years. The installation period of 3 years plus one year for start-up corresponds to an average installation rate of 32 m accelerator structure per day for all sub-systems. The corresponding numbers for the HERA proton storage ring HERA were about 25 m per day, and 40 m per day are planned for the LHC. We expect that no more than one year will be required (between financial approval and the beginning of construction) for the public planning approval procedure ( Planfeststellungsverfahren ) and the bidding and awarding of contracts Operating Costs The total cost for operation has been estimated at 120 Million Euro per year. This includes the electrical power consumption, the regular replacement or refurbishing of klystrons, and the helium losses. The numbers are determined assuming current prices and an annual operation time of 5,000 h. Costs for general maintenance and repair have been estimated assuming 2 % per year of the original total investment costs corresponding to the DESY experience. For critical components (such as accelerator modules) a number of spares will be produced; these costs are included in the investment costs.

13 10.5 Operating Costs II-379 Figure : Time schedule for civil construction.

14 II Project Costs and Schedule Figure : Time schedule for machine installation.