Climate change impact assessment for selected sectors in Poland
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1 Climate change impact assessment for selected sectors in Poland Tomasz Okruszko (WULS) on behalf of CHASE_PL consortium
2 9 November Met Office data for 2015 so far shows that, for the first time, global mean temperature at the Earth's surface is set to reach 1 C above pre-industrial levels
3 PRESENTATION OVERVIEW Setting the scene Observed changes Predictions Modeling Indicators So far so good Key messages
4 PROJECT OBJECTIVES The CHASE-PL project is expected to contribute to increase of understanding of climate change impacts in selected sectors of Poland. It will extend in numerous ways the state-of-the-art of the detection of change, projection of climate change and its impacts, and interpretation of uncertainty. The project addresses the following topics Change detection in observed climate Projections of climate variability and change Model-based assessment of climate change impacts in water system Assessment of climate change impacts on ecosystems and agriculture Uncertainty in observations, understanding and projections
5 The project, consists of seven work packages, implemented jointly by partners of the consortium: WP1 - Change detection in observed climate of Poland, at a range of scales (PL1, N) Lead Dr Iwona Pinskwar, PL1 (IAFE) WP2 Projections of climate variability and change for Poland, comparison with control period (N, PL1), Lead - Mr Eirik J. Førland, N (Met N) WP3 Model-based assessment of climate change impacts in the Vistula and the Odra basins (PL2, PL1), Lead - Dr Mikolaj Piniewski PL2 (WULS) WP4 Index-based assessment of climate change impacts on ecosystems and agriculture (PL2, PL1), Lead - Prof. Tomasz Okruszko, PL2 (WULS) WP5 Uncertainty in observations, understanding and projections system framework (N, PL1), Lead - Prof. Øystein Hov, N (NMI) WP6 Promotion, and dissemination of results, Lead Mr Adam Chorynski (PL1, N, PL2), M.Sc., PL1 (IAFE) WP7 Project management, Lead Dr Malgorzata Szwed, PL1 (IAFE) Project leader Prof. Zbigniew Kundzewicz (IAFE)
6 Distribution of statistical significance of trend in the number of hot days (T max > 30 o C) in Poland, ; (a) whole summer; (b) June; (c) July; (d) August; (e) May; (f) September. The heat goes on Changes in indices of hot extremes in Poland Dariusz Graczyk, Iwona Pińskwar, Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Øystein Hov, Eirik J. Førland, Małgorzata Szwed, Adam Choryński is now in the stage of preparation of final revised version, after positive reviews in Theoretical and Applied Climatology. INTER-WINTER AND INTRA-WINTER VARIABILITY OF SNOW COVER AND FROST DEPTH AT POTSDAM SECULAR STATION Małgorzata Szwed, Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Abdelkader Mezghani It is under review in GEOGRAFIE
7 CHASE-PL: Bias-corrected EURO-CORDEX projections for Poland 0.6⁰ 0.8⁰ 0.9⁰ Absolute change of daily maximum temperature [⁰C] with respect to ⁰ 1.3⁰ 1.3⁰ RCP 4.5 Ensemble mean: 1.03⁰ increase 1.4⁰ 0.7⁰ 1.1⁰ Mezghani & Dobler, 2015
8 CHASE-PL: Bias-corrected EURO-CORDEX projections for Poland 3% 4% 5% Relative change in annual precipitation [%] with respect to RCP 4.5 6% 9% 4% Ensemble mean: 5.2% increase Interactive Web Mapping System (CHASE_WMS) (under construction) 8% 5% 3% Mezghani & Dobler,
9 SWAT MODEL for Wisła and Odra river basins km Catchments Land use Soils Meteo
10 The modelling results available as the CHASE-PL Precipitation Natural Hydrology (CPL-NH) open Berezowski dataset T., Szcześniak M., Kardel I., Michałowski R., The model lays the groundwork Okruszko for assessments T., Mezghani A., of Piniewski M. (submitted), CPLFD- CC impacts GDPT5: Gridded Daily Precipitation & Temperature Dataset For Two Largest Polish River Basins in 5 km Resolution. Earth System Science Data. (submited 2015) Link to dataset download: The Vistula at Tczew 440f-bd1e-c49ff10d0a07 (DOI: /uuid:e939aec0-bdd1-440f-bd1e-c49ff10d0a07) Runoff The Odra at Gozdowice Piniewski et al., submitted, WRR
11 INDICATORS We are developing project based environmental flows concept based on flows characteristics as well as on building block approach; We are developing project based concept for soil moisture monitoring system close to the: Drought Monitoring System for Poland (ADMS) provided by the Institute of Soil Science and Plant Cultivation - State Research Institute (IUNG-PIB)
12 WORKSHOPS AND THEIR IMPACT Joint meeting of CHASE-PL and CHIHE projects Warsaw, 26 May 2015 Scenario building workshops with PAS scientists Warsaw, 30 Oct & 11 Dec 2015
13 Other papers & conferences: Assessment of climate change impacts on water resources, Krysanova, V., Z.W. Kundzewicz, M. Piniewski, 2015In: Singh, V.P. (Ed.) Handbook of Hydrology (accepted) On using principal components to represent stations in empirical-statistical downscaling, RASMUS E. BENESTAD 1*, DELIANG CHEN 2, ABDELKADER MEZGHANI 1, LIJUN FAN 3 and KAJSA PARDING 1, 1 The Norwegian Meteorological Institute, PO Box 43, NO-0313 Oslo, Norway; 2 University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden; 3 Key Laboratory of Regional Climate Environment for East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China, Tellus A 2015, 67, 28326, Wymagania wodne ekosystemów zależnych od wód jako podstawa określenia przepływów nienaruszalnych środowiskowych. część i: koncepcji DOROTA PUSŁOWSKA-TYSZEWSKA, Politechnika Warszawska, Katedra Ochrony i Kształtowania Środowiska MAREK RYCHARSKI, Instytut Technologiczno-Przyrodniczy, Zakład Ochrony Przyrody i Krajobrazu Wiejskiego; submited to Gospodarka Wodna M. Piniewski "A large-scale and fine resolution SWAT model for an assessment of isolated climate change impact on unaltered flow regimes in Central Eastern Europe", 2015 International SWAT conference, Pula, Italy, M. Piniewski "Climate change impact on water management including point and diffuse sources of pollution - Polish perspective" French- German-Polish conference "Water and Climate Change", Leipzig, Germany,
14 KEY MESSAGES The bias corrected predictions for Poland say: warmer and wetter ; The data sets (historical and projected variables) available for public (scientific) use; First physically based, distributed model for Odra River and Wisła River basins ready for use; We are on time with project progress.
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